Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Hoping that we trade at least mirror of Nas and not have a multiplier applied tomorrow. I am thinking people may start pricing in Fema $ to weather the shutdown.

As we gather more data, what are the chances of allow certain age groups to go back to work? Who knows, could be another option.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

An interesting dynamic is playing out right now in the Senate. They're dealing with multiple republican senators that aren't able to vote due to testing positive for the virus....with possibly more of them getting quarantined due to their contact between themselves. It would be VERY much in their interest to get the deal done however they can right now because the Senate could flip to majority Democratic if negotiation extend into the week. Luckily, these events might mean a more fair deal instead of the Republican interests favored.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hoping that we trade at least mirror of Nas and not have a multiplier applied tomorrow. I am thinking people may start pricing in Fema $ to weather the shutdown.

As we gather more data, what are the chances of allow certain age groups to go back to work? Who knows, could be another option.

I think allowing workers back under age 40 in like 2-3 weeks would be the right way to go. Then workers 40-60 three weeks later, etc...

 

[Thekiwi]

Think about how wild this week should be. To start off we have absolute peak hysteria with half the nation on complete shutdown. By the end of the week we should have a grasp of CV mortality rate.

Literally anything could happen from down another 20% to up 20%. Maybe even a more moderate version of BOTH.

I stick by my initial feeling that we have an unprecedented amount of cash already on the sidelines and not even in bonds. Don't want to mention too much stuff outside the CV thread, but IF we see a slower spread than predicted and sharply lower mortality, this cash will flood back in an instant. Computers don't wait and see when FOMO sets in.

There is no way Warren Buffett didn't spend the weekend working on buying into Boeing and the like. Berkshire will halve their cash pile before April is out, perhaps sooner.

It’s probable peak fear in USA won’t start until after the bodies start piling up and the peak daily death rate has passed, from what I understand that is still some weeks away in a best case scenario.

I don’t think Boeing being saved is guaranteed, the government will want to keep it going as a going concern, but that could be in a chapter 11 situation like GM was “saved” in GFC. Existing shareholders could end up with zero.

 

[FrankSG]

Don't forget....TSLA is a wildly popular retail stock. People are being forced to sit at home and stare at this buying opportunity.

Retails are doing a lot more than just staring, they're taking advantage of this opportunity en mass.

Last week alone, the # of Robinhood users holding TSLA increased by over 15% from ~165k to ~192k.

That means ~27,000 Robinhood users added TSLA to their portfolio last week.

Funnily enough, Ford is the #2 most held stock by Robinhood users and saw an even more explosive growth since this crisis began.

During the last month alone, Ford stock went from $9 to $4.5 while the Robinhood users holding Ford went from ~340k to ~515k.

Time will tell if some of these Ford stock holders come to their senses and switch to TSLA instead.

 

[dw4ngg]

Futures may come back around overnight.

I think allowing workers back under age 40 in like 2-3 weeks would be the right way to go. Then workers 40-60 three weeks later, etc...

I think it makes more sense to allow younger folks to go back to work AFTER they’ve been tested negative.. it may take a couple wks just to have sufficient supply of tests to accommodate this though

 

[Thekiwi]

Also a good amount of the Tesla customer pool are in the group that can work from home and thus are not part of the groups experiencing the income loss right now.

it would be good to have this sort of customer demographic information as well if it exists.

 

[Thekiwi]

An interesting dynamic is playing out right now in the Senate. They're dealing with multiple republican senators that aren't able to vote due to testing positive for the virus....with possibly more of them getting quarantined due to their contact between themselves. It would be VERY much in their interest to get the deal done however they can right now because the Senate could flip to majority Democratic if negotiation extend into the week. Luckily, these events might mean a more fair deal instead of the Republican interests favored.

they’ll just change rules to allow voting from home before they would ever think about Dems getting control senate.

 

[hacer]

Thank you for explanation, it looks like the short exempt may have an additional source, if a broker-dealer choses to check that box voluntarily, looks like to save them grief in HFT.

Factual - yes, but i doubt this act of self-marking is prevalent and meaningful, as we are observing a correlation that this % spikes with atypically down days.

Given that short-exempt only matters when the uptick rule is in effect you would expect to see a lot more short-exempt on days when the up-tick rule is in effect so in that respect it's not surprising that @Artful Dodger 's FINRA short selling volume are higher when the uptick rule is in effect because there isn't much reason to mark it exempt when the rule is not in effect because then it doesn't matter.

My guess is that the regulation was written with HFT (High Frequency Trading) in mind as the "reason" that 17 CFR § 242.201 (c) was written. But this really puts a lot of trust on Hedge Funds (most hedge funds have broker/dealer status) that they don't abuse it. Without deep audits by the SEC (which I'm pretty sure aren't happening) it would be trivial to abuse this rule and freely short on downticks. It would be super easy to write very weak "written procedure" that don't do a good job of enforcing the rules followed up with similarly weak surveillance. Then they could even survive an audit and at worst get an order to improve their procedures and surveillance.

I'm not sure why you think the use of 17 CFR § 242.201 (c) isn't prevalent. It's really, really hard to imagine that 17 CFR § 242.201 (d) could account for the kind of volumes that FINRA reports as short-exempt. The real question is whether it is legitimate or not - Market Makers (MM) are NOT actually exempt from the uptick rule by using (c) -it is just a self-certification that they are following the uptick rule. Only (d) is an actual exemption. Personally I'm pretty sure that hedge funds do abuse this at will. I'm not sure whether or not MMs do.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

they’ll just change rules to allow voting from home before they would ever think about Dems getting control senate.

I believe that would require a constitutional amendment which would not be an option . Both logistically with senators not available to vote and time wise

 

[PeterJA]

I think a large part of the problem is this is the daily chat thread, and the mods have the frustrating task of fighting against it.

A suggestion from my judo days: give way and go with it. Expand the notable posts thread to one where any post a mod deems worthy or with 40+ reactions goes in. Rather than delete and argue with people mods just cherry pick the best. This solves a 2nd problem we all have of sifting out the best info. when time limited.

@shrspeedblade 's idea is the best I've seen yet. Let me expand on it.

The difficult problem of moderating might be solvable by crowd-sourcing it. Create an Investor's Summary thread that anyone (not just moderators) can populate by clicking a Save button on posts in this thread. You can't post in the Summary thread directly, but only by having someone (other than you) save your post from this thread.

Then folks with time to joke and go off-topic could do it here, and folks with less time could read the Summary thread only. If you want to be read by the largest audience (those with limited time), you'd have to post something valuable enough and on-topic enough for someone to think it's worth sending to the big audience. The moderators could do some judging, but so could anyone, thereby taking a load off the mods.

Is this worth trying? What think y'all?

EDIT: @The Martian has a similar idea using a different technique:

It's disappointing to see what happened to two of the most valuable members.

What about giving "off topic" decision to each member or members with a certain status by adding "off topic" rating. And then let every member set their own "off topic" threshold. If the "off topic" rating is over the threshold, the message will be ignored. Almost like member ignore function. If a member has too many messages with too many "off topic" rating during a certain period of time, the member should be warned or disciplined.

 

[HG Wells]

Its common in the Senate to pair members of opposite parties.
IE If a Republican is ill a Democrat will also sit out the vote.

SEE
Pair (parliamentary convention) - Wikipedia

But I bet that wont happen in this situation.

 

[junas]

I think allowing workers back under age 40 in like 2-3 weeks would be the right way to go. Then workers 40-60 three weeks later, etc...

This is very probable solution. Thank you for sharing the idea. Looks like virus is not going away near-term, but life must go on at some point. Eventually it's best to return back to normal gradually starting from the youngest.

I was very close to start buying last week. I didn't because of one main reason: US hasn't seen the virus yet. Two weeks of lockdown and own friends/relatives in hospital will do the job.

Near-term positives I see:

• P&D report could be defensive victory (Cars are still being delivered in many countries. Model Y and China are also highlights.)
• Once we get news on Fremont reopening we could see $100 up day (IMO no any visibility over the schedule since chaos is now only getting started in US).
• Positive virus news (vaccination breakthrough, decreasing cases, or such) could mean several $50-100 days in a row (really hard to predict when this happens, but easy to predict it eventually happens)
• I might be totally wrong, but US (including Fremont) probably returns back to work faster than any European plant. The US has more business-minded general opinion vs. Europe where leaders avoid mistakes & political suicides. The difference in mentality can be felt in this forum too.

Near-term negatives I see:

• Average Joe realizes lots of people are dying in US too, and not only on TV
• Giga Nevada possible shutdown in the near future (could be partial or complete, depending on supply chain and local situation)
  
• Tesla utilizes some demand levers (you know the headlines after that)
• Some supply-chain issues reported in China (quite unlikely)
• The worst of worst scenarios: virus starts spreading again in China (quite unlikely)

It's kind of hard to predict the bottom as always, but now futures look like we're going to visit 300's again. I wouldn't be surprised to see 200's during the two following weeks. Both directions are OK though since I'm already heavily invested, but wouldn't mind adding some more. I might start buying once we see green Monday sometime in the future. It has been a while if I recall correctly..

 

[Cupidchild]

Monday starting with another circuit breaker? Negative 5% down.. . Not even a short rally to be seen in the month of March so far. Perhaps TSLA will show some divergence against SPX and go up for the week. Wishful thinking... I guess better chance that SPX will do some bouncing...

 

[Green Pete]

Is it still possible for them to pass something tonight?

 

[Cupidchild]

Retails are doing a lot more than just staring, they're taking advantage of this opportunity en mass.

View attachment 524533

Last week alone, the # of Robinhood users holding TSLA increased by over 15% from ~165k to ~192k.

Time will tell if some of these Ford stock holders come to their senses and switch to TSLA instead.

Robinhood users increasing TSLA speaks very little if stock will go upl.
I asked my friends who are holding Ford and why the heck did you buy Ford vs. Tesla and they say b/c SP is cheaper... I guess they "think" that cheaper stock price = more upside gain.. Its all psychological.
In anycase, some were saying Ford could go bankrupt by 2023 unless they execute or get government bailout, so we shall see..

 

[Cupidchild]

Okay, I dealing with a lot of crises at the moment. They have come in this sequence.

1. Brexit - 3 years and hasn't really happened yet
2. Climate change
3. Covid
4. TSLA halving in price
5. Panic shopping fallout
6. Karen leaving
7. FC leaving

What is interesting is that each of these is worse than the previous... Factchecking is the best poster here bar none.

What's next? Actual zombies?

what happened to #6 & #7 ?

 

[Words of HABIT]

What is it about social distancing that it so hard to understand? It does not matter about the age of the person. 6' distance minimum, Wash your hands after every contact of any surface that anyone else can touch. Don't touch your face. Stay at home unless you are critical health care and/or safety worker. Otherwise you are adding to the outbreak and severity of the virus. Stay at home. Save lives. Stay at home. Save lives.

Until each nation gets the above (hint, only China has taken this seriously) the outbreak will continue. FOMO? Bottom? The World economy is shutting down and even though people are desperate to get back to work, it is not possible without making the situation worse. This is not a one time event, but a continuous blast that will effect us until those understand how to spread the risk.

Tesla and every other manufacturer should be producing ventilators, mask, medical equipment, medical garments and gloves to fight this war. 100% of efforts, no half measures. Perhaps the only vehicles Tesla should be manufacturing are the Cybertruck to be used exclusive for police and security forces to control their citizens from spreading the virus.

Here are two sobering graphs. What is now happening is unprecented in history. Yes, Tesla is a great company making great environmentally friendly alternative products, reshaping industries, and the best positioned company to advance in a recovery. And yes, we will recover. However IMHO there is potentially a significant downward drop still pending and a V shaped recovery is not in the cards this time, as each nation deals with the virus in their own unique way the recovery will be sporadic. This war will not end with the signing of a peace treaty, or infusion of funds from a government. And the time to recover may be significantly longer that any of us believe now.

May we all learn from this and become a truly better society for love of one another instead of material possions which are fleeting.

 

[Cupidchild]

Tbh I don’t expect Tesla to crash in multiples of the market down days anymore, as it is more well positioned than others to handle this downturn.
Tesla is not depending on bailout grants or loans; thus, this package doesn’t help them as much as it does other companies. Plus, it is geographically hedged and capable of socially distanced business (via touchless deliveries).
Anyway, I hope I’m right. But to be safe, I transitioned out of shorter term calls end of last wk to be safe. Will possibly make short term plays on any dips into late Tuesday or Wednesday.
However, I expect other stocks I’ve entered into positions on recently (except maybe Google and Zoom) will dip though - including LULU, MGM and NRG.
Edit: yes, I’m not longer 100% Tesla after all these stocks have presented discounts for us....

Yes so many companies valuation has come down, and some can recover faster than TSLA. I also think TSLA when it does move, moves like Performance Model S/3/X/Y. Light speed. There are also safer opportunities to invest while TSLA recovers like Walmart, Zoom, NFLX, AmZN, etc... or even bottom fish extremely overbought stocks for just short term gain..
Crazy market out there.. so just be careful.

 

[Fobble]

Is it still possible for them to pass something tonight?

Secretary Steve Mnuchin said earlier today the goal is to have it passed by Monday, but everything is very fluid so I am not sure if he still stands by the statement.