Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

From Fred:

"A dealership in North Miami, Florida, is dropping $20,000 from the price of an I-Pace that initially listed for $73,745. At $53k and change, any version of a new I-Pace is a remarkable deal."

...but here is the thing. Is that actually a "remarkable deal?"

That only brings the Jag down to the starting price of an AWD Model Y. I guess the Jag would get the tax credit so maybe including that would make it significantly cheaper, but there is no way the Jag can hope to compete with the Model Y at price parity. It needs to sell at a significant discount because it is far less capable.

This is really great news for Tesla. I-Pace is arguably the best competitor to Tesla and they have absolutely tanked. Tesla are managing to keep momentum through the crisis but the others will never recover now. Although, we should keep a healthy respect for Audi come 2024...

Folks, what's the prevailing wisdom regarding ITM LEAPS? I have profitable Jan 2021 $875's - would I get better returns selling and going for a further-out/higher strike?

. I am in a similar situation although strike price average is more like 600 and further out. I am thinking that I will leverage up September time. Ready for S&P500 inclusion plus de-risks the crisis a bit more.

 

[dww12]

After some discussion and analysis, we concluded that the $969 intraday SP spike was caused by MMs delta hedging. See the number of open Call Options for an idea of where the MMs are forced to move the price.

Paging @FrankSG

Always with the 9s and the 6s. And a palindrome, so 20% off (if you watched the AI vid link this AM).

 

[jerry33]

FFS tesla are doing amazingly well. Why is everyone determined not to copy them?

1. The good stuff takes time and talent.
2. A quick demo to show the investors (and management) is only possible with LIDAR and similar sensor based systems.

It's like comparing a baby to a four function calculator. A baby can't add until first or second grade (been awhile, I don't recall which grade started basic arithmetic). A four function calculator can be made from scratch in a few days if you understand the principles and have a parts supply, but it will never be able to do more than those four functions.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm not sure that shares shorted are enough to cause any sort of significant squeeze anymore anyway

And volumes are healthy enough that days to cover are fairly low...

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Mo City]

So you're saying that this path is not so visible to you right now. So in the next 12 months it must become more visible, or else the growth story fades. So I'm much more confident that if the price is just $1200/sh next year, there will still be a compelling story for how it can still keep growing to $1600 year later. But if it grows to $2000/sh next year, then we will need an even stronger story for how Tesla keeps growing to $3000, $4000 or whatever in the coming year. I suppose eventually Tesla could lock onto some P/E ratio after which point the stock price just grows in proportion to EPS. But locking in high P/E requires a strong growth story that does not dim too much each year.

If TSLA actually achieves $2000 by next May, it is certain there are developments we are currently (1) not considering, (2) not taking seriously or (3) vastly underestimating. The last thing we should be concerned about is TSLA's meteoric appreciation making it harder for TSLA to continue rapidly appreciating.

Talk about First World problems...

 

[Mo City]

Short term I see more upside than downside. Only 2nd wave of COVID lockdowns seems a realistic market crasher.

The chances of this are close to nil because people are fed up with lockdowns.

The biggest risk is increased trade barriers. International trade is the life's blood of the global economy.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The chances of this are close to nil because people are fed up with lockdowns.

The biggest risk is increased trade barriers. International trade is the life's blood of the global economy.

The biggest risks I see are the nutjobs running Alameda County. They have discovered they have the power to shut things down and most people don’t complain. Therefore, there's little downside to do it again, and again.

 

[juanmedina]

The chances of this are close to nil because people are fed up with lockdowns.

The biggest risk is increased trade barriers. International trade is the life's blood of the global economy.

I love to work from home.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The biggest risks I see are the nutjobs running Alameda County. They have discovered they have the power to shut things down and most people don’t complain. Therefore, there's little downside to do it again, and again.

The staff running Alameda County was goaded into doing what they did by the real nut jobs at TESLAQ/L.A. Times. But, like that great philosopher and pugilist Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

Elon's still got that lawyer's phone number, and he packs a punch. It's gonna be alright.

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I never had much respect for Trefis before, but I do like this analysis:
Tesla’s Most Important Metric -- Trefis

That last bit about Ford is doubtful, though.

 

[elasalle]

So is 900 the new 300

 

[goinfraftw]

Maybe its worth having a separate thread for the protests. I might be out there soon myself.

https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/1267662905383596032

https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1267904660481822720

https://twitter.com/Hadas_Gold/status/1267797760356614148

 

[Artful Dodger]

I never had much respect for Trefis before, but I do like this analysis:
Tesla’s Most Important Metric -- Trefis

That last bit about Ford is doubtful, though.

Yeah, he hit the highlights:

• look beyond 2020
• look beyond 2025!
• 10M cars / yr in 10 yrs
• $500B in Revenue / yr
• $100B in Profits / yr
• FSD is extra income

But he missed out on T.E. and he was downright condescending when it came to Greta Tunberg and Climate Change. He totally whiffed on the FACT that R.E. is MORE profitable than FOSSIL already, and the trend is your friend.

Overall, I give him a B- on his homework assignment.

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I feel like its fairly obvious the stock is destined for a 850 closing price on Friday. Very much split from macros now. If macros retrace on the 2nd half of the week, could go back into the 800-820 range but I think it would take macros doing an 3-5% reversal downwards for that

 

[Tslynk67]

I feel like its fairly obvious the stock is destined for a 850 closing price on Friday. Very much split from macros now. If macros retrace on the 2nd half of the week, could go back into the 800-820 range but I think it would take macros doing an 3-5% reversal downwards for that

Looking at the distribution of puts and calls right now I'd say $870 is the current target, but that will likely evolve upwards a little. So I'm predicting $885 if there are no "events"...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looking at the distribution of puts and calls right now I'd say $870 is the current target, but that will likely evolve upwards a little. So I'm predicting $885 if there are no "events"...

Dibs on $880.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Although, we should keep a healthy respect for Audi come 2024...

We should?

But why? My momma told me respect was earned.

 

[EQC_]

Very sorry...I post infrequently enough here that I don't know how to add images.

But: per the photos on BuildingTesla.com, there is something going on at Gigafactory 1. Near the lower left (south-west?) of the building, the most recent photos show a growing brown-ish portion where the white roof should be...perhaps they are removing or altering the roof in preparation for something there?

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

 

[Artful Dodger]

I feel like its fairly obvious the stock is destined for a 850 closing price on Friday. Very much split from macros now. If macros retrace on the 2nd half of the week, could go back into the 800-820 range but I think it would take macros doing an 3-5% reversal downwards for that

SP action was all about the Technicals today:

• returned to test Upper-BB at $872.70 by 11:10 hrs
• crawled back up to Previous Close SP by 14:00
• smak'd back down to near Max-Pain by the Close

I don't see any 850-20s-00s in these factors this week. Here's the 11:10 Chart (by 16:00 hrs, the Upper-BB rose slightly to finish at 874.50).

The GOOD NEWS that the Technicals are turning in our favor. The Upper-BB is up about $25 over the past 2 sessions, and should be up by about $10 (~884) at tomorrow's Open.

This 'head-room' btwn the SP and Upper-BB relieves some selling pressure, and when combined with 'Max-Pain' encouraging MMs and Options-writers to keep the SP around $880 means, IMHO, we're not head backward into the lower 800s this week.

Cheers!