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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Ross GerberVerified account @GerberKawasaki 2h2 hours ago
Morgan Stanley figures out that Tesla supercharger system is a huge moat for Tesla. In the note they mention Tesla might have 13 mil cars on the road in 11 years. Do the math. That makes Tesla worth 5-10x $tsla
Ross Gerber on Twitter
Funny. I watched the live webcast on YouTube in Oct/Nov 2012, when Elon announced the Supercharger Network. It was the one piece of the Tesla puzzle I felt was missing, and the one thing that was holding me back from investing. It was also the perfect cure for range anxiety, which was, frankly, what was holding me back from buying a Model S.
So I watched the announcement, and for anyone paying attention it was a pure "duh" moment -- Tesla made it obvious that the Tesla Supercharger Network was going to be a huge moat for Tesla. So I sold all my AAPL and GOOG holdings and backed up the truck on TSLA. And in 2013 I got my Model S.
Hey, I don't work for Morgan Stanley, nor do I have any sort of degree in finance or an MBA, and yet, still I was able to figure the moat thing over six years ago.
What's Morgan Stanley's excuse?
I spent a couple hours reading the PDF file put out Randy Whitfield that Niedermeyer used in his report. The report is complex and convoluted, attacking assumptions in the NHTSA's analysis of the safety of Tesla's autopilot. Although he has likely found a few problem spots in the NHTSA's handing of the statistics, the bottom line is that fewer than one out of a hundred people will read the report, and an even smaller number will grasp any useful conclusions from the report. Whitfield concludes that the NHTSA is conspiring to hide the real numbers and protect Tesla. The report states, "Until October 19, 2018, the record of our FOIA lawsuit reflects NHTSA’s unwavering focus on the potential competitive harm to Tesla that the Agency believed would ensue from complying with our FOIA request." Sheesh, talk about conspiracy theorists.
Whitfield promotes himself as a crusader for the driving public, someone trying to get the word out about just how dangerous this technology is. It's ironic that Tesla's stats show that Tesla with autopilot engaged is substantially better than statistics for non-autopilot engaged driving. Here's Tesla's site where you can see quarterly reports on autopilot safety.
Looking at the data, you can see that with autopilot engaged, Teslas are going better than 3 million miles between accidents. That's more than six times better than the general average for all non-autopilot vehicles and even more than 40% better than Teslas without autopilot engaged. There is a bias, here, of course, in that autopilot miles are primarily on highways and highway driving could be less likely to lead to accidents than street driving. Still, the stats on autopilot and Tesla safety are very impressive and will get more so as enhancements to the autopilot keep getting delivered over the air. You'll notice a slight decline in safety of both autopilot-enabled Teslas and non-autopilot-enabled Teslas in Q4 vs. Q3. I think in both cases it is a seasonal issue related to slippery roads, bad weather, etc. of Q4. As we get year over year stats released, the improvement trend should be substantial.
The Q3 and Q4 reports support the original NHTSA report in rough numbers. Since each of the current reports works with just one quarter of data and the data stats remain roughly equivalent with the NHTSA's stats, the implication is that the safety improvements claimed for autopilot in the NHTSA report are indeed accurate. One would assume that Tesla's methodologies in preparing quarterly reports were more straight-forward than the NHTSA's methods, but the results are nonetheless similar.
Bottom line: Tesla is making driving substantially safer. It's efforts with advanced automation and higher safety standards for auto construction (compared to the competition) will force other automakers to improve their products as well, just as Tesla's EV push has forced the industry to embrace electric vehicles as the future. Ultimately, Elon's efforts, supported by you and me (the stockholders) will save millions of lives. Clean, sustainable transport was just the beginning of the disruption. Don't let the naysayers discourage you.
Whitfield promotes himself as a crusader for the driving public, someone trying to get the word out about just how dangerous this technology is. It's ironic that Tesla's stats show that Tesla with autopilot engaged is substantially better than statistics for non-autopilot engaged driving. Here's Tesla's site where you can see quarterly reports on autopilot safety.
Looking at the data, you can see that with autopilot engaged, Teslas are going better than 3 million miles between accidents. That's more than six times better than the general average for all non-autopilot vehicles and even more than 40% better than Teslas without autopilot engaged. There is a bias, here, of course, in that autopilot miles are primarily on highways and highway driving could be less likely to lead to accidents than street driving. Still, the stats on autopilot and Tesla safety are very impressive and will get more so as enhancements to the autopilot keep getting delivered over the air. You'll notice a slight decline in safety of both autopilot-enabled Teslas and non-autopilot-enabled Teslas in Q4 vs. Q3. I think in both cases it is a seasonal issue related to slippery roads, bad weather, etc. of Q4. As we get year over year stats released, the improvement trend should be substantial.
The Q3 and Q4 reports support the original NHTSA report in rough numbers. Since each of the current reports works with just one quarter of data and the data stats remain roughly equivalent with the NHTSA's stats, the implication is that the safety improvements claimed for autopilot in the NHTSA report are indeed accurate. One would assume that Tesla's methodologies in preparing quarterly reports were more straight-forward than the NHTSA's methods, but the results are nonetheless similar.
Bottom line: Tesla is making driving substantially safer. It's efforts with advanced automation and higher safety standards for auto construction (compared to the competition) will force other automakers to improve their products as well, just as Tesla's EV push has forced the industry to embrace electric vehicles as the future. Ultimately, Elon's efforts, supported by you and me (the stockholders) will save millions of lives. Clean, sustainable transport was just the beginning of the disruption. Don't let the naysayers discourage you.
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Today it might be that day traders were trying to close 306 gap to then reverse and start closing 347 gap in near term. It went down to 310, but not 306 I don't know if it is enough that they tried or will they continue tomorrow until achieved.
Not an investment advice, just an idea
Not an investment advice, just an idea
I'm not here to judge, but that probably says more about you than me.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Just as longs are afraid - so are shorts. May be doubly so. That is the reason, Tesla can also climb up very fast.
I think the short/medium term bearishness is due to Q4 ER and low Q1 guidance. Shorts can create FUD around that - and various things you would expect in normal business like price adjustments (Tesla does those instead of various changing incentives other OEMs use).
I think we'll be in better position once uncertainty of Q1 is behind us and then Tesla is added to S&P (after Q2). But, who knows what the catalyst for upward SP swing could be ? That drive train deal or any number of things that seem to happen with Tesla overnight.
Totally agree with you. I couldn't ask for more regarding what Tesla have done. Those who fully understand Tesla, buy and hold shares without leverage should be fine. Those who like to speculate with high leverage could run into trouble from time to time.
It's all these cat and dog pictures and talk of the rubbish that the bears are spreading! It plays with the mind I tell you.
Mark's Beagle
Banned
Walter MacVane @EcoHeliGuyWalter MacVane Retweeted Walter MacVane
From the Glovis Captain on Jan 12th to Glovis Courage on February 12th we have seen 8 Vessels transport S, X, and 3’s from Pier 80 San Francisco to Europe and Asia. Likely ~24000 vehicles in 4.5 weeks.
12:57 PM - 12 Feb 2019
Walter MacVane on Twitter
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well that gap was yesterday - its gone. Also, in the past 10 days, SP has traversed 306 on 6 days, including just 3 days back.
BTW, I'm still waiting for that big gap between 345 and 325 from 1/18 to be closed
EVNow
Well-Known Member
BTW, do these vessels bring cars from Europe / Japan to US ? They used to return empty in the days before Tesla. Tesla should be getting good rates.
Greg Wester @gwestr 1h1 hour agoWaterfall automotive manufacturing is building products, on a 10 year budget cycle, to compete with Tesla Model S and Model X. The problem is they’re shipping into a market with Model 3 and Model Y, and they’re $50,000 too expensive with a worse product!
Greg Wester on Twitter
Spencer @sensarpensarPopular U.S. car sales from 2013 through 2018. Yikes. $TSLA $TSLAQ @ValueAnalyst1 @elonmusk @Teslarati @tesla_truth @elonmusknt #justthebeginning
12:55 PM - 12 Feb 2019 from San Jose, CA
Spencer on Twitter
I independently invented the concept on my own before college, where I was disappointed to learn that Dawkins had already come up with the same thing
(I had been calling it the "genetics of thought"). I ended up adopting the term "meme" as a username for a long time to commemorate Dawkins' concept, which I was rather fond of. At first, the only annoyance with that username was simply that other people, not knowing the word, insisted on pronouncing it "me-me". But then the concept of "internet memes" became common, making it seem that I had picked the username because I was obsessed with pictures of grumpy cats with text on them :Þ
Urs Fürer @UFrer 22h22 hours ago
Translated from German by Microsoft
After almost three years of patience, I can finally #Tesla accept my Model 3 performance on Mon 18:2!
Urs Fürer on Twitter
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