Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

What kind of marketing is that? Market something you can not use frequently without invoking warranty? At least Tesla doesn't do that.
We know the best solution is to charge at home daily. But some just don't have the luxury of home charging.

A lot of rich people live in downtown cities where home charging is not available.

I don't know how often charging at 350 KW will be needed to invoke warranty.

But you can run commercials saying you can charge at 350 KW while all others charge at 250 KW at most.

I assume Porsche hired some new engineers with battery knowledge and whatnot, but I am certain Tesla is much more experienced, in every aspect regarding to battery energy (I'm thinking of JB Straubel's calm voice).


If and when Porsche Taycan (kind of a weird name actually) makes it to 350 KW charging and 185 miles in 9 minutes, Tesla may well choose to get the fastest charging title back. We may not have heard of Tesla's plan yet, but that's just for competitive reasons.

.

I hear they have competent electrical engineers in Germany.

This isn't the Manhattan Project.

Maxwells supercapacitors were designed for hybrid vehicles. People far more knowledgeable than me say they are a poor fit for BEVs.

I don't think Porsche plans to fire their electrical engineers after Taycan is released.

Competition is a beautiful thing.

This is what Elon wanted, to force legacy automakers into making competitive/compelling EVs.

There is no need for Tesla fans to be hyper defensive when another automaker makes a competitive/compelling BEV.

IF Taycan is good enough to steal a thousand Model S customers it is good enough to take 20k Panamera customers. Humanity wins!

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

350 KW chargers exist today.

If they are lying about how fast they can charge at said chargers it is a rather stupid lie because they will be found out in less than a year.

Car reviewers will take them to said chargers as soon as they are released to the public.

And we all know about European consumer protection laws.

BTW Porsche is also claiming they will be able to sustain high performance on the track for longer than Tesla. Also a claim that can be easily verified or disproved as soon as Taycan is released.

IIRC, VW, which owns Porsche, does have a track record of lying, and lying straight to people's faces.

BTW Porsche is also claiming they will be able to sustain high performance on the track for longer than Tesla. Also a claim that can be easily verified or disproved as soon as Taycan is released.

They are targeting Model S (not even the latest P100D), which does not last long on the track. Just like claiming "the i-Pace is faster than Model X" without mentioning it's not a P100D.

Now let's ignore all these, what makes you think Tesla will not make a new Model S which targets the Performance Model 3 in terms of track performance? And what about the Roadster 2's performance?

I absolutely like more competition, in the end, we are the beneficiaries, so is planet Earth. But like I said, Tesla won't just give away their 1st prizes.

 

[WarpedOne]

.... One thing I will assume is that Porsche engineers are not idiots, even if they have never done a BEV before.

I would also assume Nissan engineers are not idiots and they have done BEV before... and still let the Leaf batteries cook in their own sauce ehm heat ...
Engineers do not make the decisions, they only try to solve the problems they are tasked with..

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

A lot of rich people live in downtown cities where home charging is not available.

I don't know how often charging at 350 KW will be needed to invoke warranty.

But you can run commercials saying you can charge at 350 KW while all others charge at 250 KW at most.





I hear they have competent electrical engineers in Germany.

This isn't the Manhattan Project.

Maxwells supercapacitors were designed for hybrid vehicles. People far more knowledgeable than me say they are a poor fit for BEVs.

I don't think Porsche plans to fire their electrical engineers after Taycan is released.

Competition is a beautiful thing.

This is what Elon wanted, to force legacy automakers into making competitive/compelling EVs.

There is no need for Tesla fans to be hyper defensive when another automaker makes a competitive/compelling BEV.

IF Taycan is good enough to steal a thousand Model S customers it is good enough to take 20k Panamera customers. Humanity wins!

Yes, the more EVs the better.
I just don't understand your logic of giving others the benefit of doubt.
I'm not defending Tesla, I am just using your logic. If competitors can outdo Tesla, which is the most experienced EV maker, why can't Tesla simply outdo them in return after being outdone?

 

[Fact Checking]

On a recent CC, someone asked him whether the S and X would get the new 2170 cells, and he said no, and added that he cannot talk about future products.

I believe you are misreading what Elon said on the Q4 call, which was:

Martin Viecha:

Okay. Let's go to the next question, which is, if and when will Tesla switch Model S and X to 2170 battery cells? What percent range improvement do you expect?

Elon Musk:

We have no plans to switch S and X to 2170 and can't comment on huge product developments.​

Firstly, in the audio you can hear it how firmly he said it that there are no plans for a 2170 switch: the background is that the 18,650 uses the same advanced chemistry, so there's no point in changing the S/X over to 2170 at this point.

Secondly the 'huge' was probably 'future', and he is simply replying to he question about percentage of range improvements expected - it's a standard reply to refuse to say anything numeric about future products.

Especially as we know it that going from 18,650 to 2170 would probably bring very little range improvement: they have very similar mass density - the thing were the 2170 packs are better is volumetric density, which was a necessary improvement to fit the 78 kWh pack into the smaller Model 3. The Model S/X has enough space for the 18,650 cells, at least for the current battery pack sizes.

The S and X has been improved continuously over the years, and there's two expected S/X refreshes this year: the HW3 upgrade and related functionality which I'm sure will motivate some buyers, plus the rumored interior refresh.

Tesla's path to growth is in expanding Model 3 production and bootstrapping Model Y, a major refresh of the S/X this year or even next year would probably be a misallocation of capex resources.

 

[Carl Raymond]

that's at its peak. it can only charge at the peak rate up to something like 75% capacity or so.

I’ve seen it described as “the stadium effect”. It’s a phrase I hope becomes household language because it’s a simple analogy people will understand.

As the stadium fills, entry to the stadium slows as it becomes harder for people to take their seats. As the battery fills, charge rate slows as it becomes harder for the charge to find a ‘place to sit’.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Oh wow, I got 0 likes and a whole bunch of disagrees on this. Interesting. Let's see if my lone wolf thinking is right on this. My guess is that they will announce the new cars *by* 2020 (so could be this year even).

My reasoning on this: Musk doesn't do things half-ass. The S (and the X to a lesser extent) are getting long in the tooth. Why just do an interior refresh, when the exterior needs a refresh too (6-7 years old now)? The S and X are inferior to the 3 in some regards, and cannot truly be considered flagships (Musk himself now drives the 3 as his daily car). On a recent CC, someone asked him whether the S and X would get the new 2170 cells, and he said no, and added that he cannot talk about future products. The latter suggests to me that the S and X replacements are future products. Lastly, Tesla didn't just refresh the Roadster; it was a complete redesign. The S and X will get the same level of attention. The only thing I will concede is that they may not change the name. Anyway, let's see what happens folks. Who's with Antares on this?

Just gave you a like. Don't cry.

 

[RobStark]

IIRC, VW, which owns Porsche, does have a track record of lying, and lying straight to people's faces.

Unlike Dieselgate, Porsche claims of 350 KW charging as well as track performance can and will be verified or disproved as soon as Taycan is released to the public.

Porsche has 20k plus pre-orders. Those people could take Porsche to court right away, not in some mythical future.

They are targeting Model S (not even the latest P100D), which does not last long on the track. Just like claiming "the i-Pace is faster than Model X" without mentioning it's not a P100D.

Now let's ignore all these, what makes you think Tesla will not make a new Model S which targets the Performance Model 3 in terms of track performance? And what about the Roadster 2's performance?

I absolutely like more competition, in the end, we are the beneficiaries, so is planet Earth. But like I said, Tesla won't just give away their 1st prizes.

Taycan is a 4 door 4/5 passenger vehicle targeting Model S not Roadster.

I think they are absolutely targeting Model S P100D, if not Porsche will be properly ridiculed on release of Taycan.

No one is giving away 1st place prizes.

Ignoring future cars that are less than 1 year away from release is kinda dumb IMO.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, the more EVs the better.
I just don't understand your logic of giving others the benefit of doubt.
I'm not defending Tesla, I am just using your logic. If competitors can outdo Tesla, which is the most experienced EV maker, why can't Tesla simply outdo them in return after being outdone?

I don't understand your logic of saying everyone else is lying about specs on cars they have pre-orders on. Being optimistic on cars 3-5 years into the future is one thing,taking liberties on cars you have taken deposits on is another.

Porsche has a history of meeting specs on cars they are taking orders on.

I never said Tesla can't make a better car in the future.

I have argued that it will happen, against those saying Model S and Model X will be discontinued.

 

[lklundin]

Regarding the price action.... It appears that it has taken a Yuge amount of short selling to get us where we are now. Those shorts have to buy back shares in the next 1-2 weeks, so they can't keep the SP artificially low for ever. Everyone knows at this point that the stock rebounds after these extreme dips, and it is easy money to start buying back in at this point, further driving up the SP. (not advice....)

Let's assume for a moment that these clearly visible, large sell orders that are clearly wasting the seller's money are indeed from someone wealthy playing a different game that has the purpose of keeping the SP down.

That stock dumping entity would not necessarily have to be a short seller. Instead, they could in principle accumulate stock slowly _before_ selling. Then they would not be short selling the stock, they would be a irrational long seller of the stock.

I guess such a "buy high, sell low" scenario would imply that they take a known loss, instead of running the risk of taking a vary large and possibly uncontrollable loss when covering their short selling (combined with a chance of actually making money).

Fire away...

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Oh wow, I got 0 likes and a whole bunch of disagrees on this. Interesting. Let's see if my lone wolf thinking is right on this. My guess is that they will announce the new cars *by* 2020 (so could be this year even).

My reasoning on this: Musk doesn't do things half-ass. The S (and the X to a lesser extent) are getting long in the tooth. Why just do an interior refresh, when the exterior needs a refresh too (6-7 years old now)? The S and X are inferior to the 3 in some regards, and cannot truly be considered flagships (Musk himself now drives the 3 as his daily car). On a recent CC, someone asked him whether the S and X would get the new 2170 cells, and he said no, and added that he cannot talk about future products. The latter suggests to me that the S and X replacements are future products. Lastly, Tesla didn't just refresh the Roadster; it was a complete redesign. The S and X will get the same level of attention. The only thing I will concede is that they may not change the name. Anyway, let's see what happens folks. Who's with Antares on this?

Roadster 1 is not designed by Tesla, it's a Lotus.

S & X will not be redesigned on the outside, there is simply no need, and it's not Tesla's paramount task.
Just give them new interior, track mode and a new battery pack capable of Supercharging V3, maybe throw in some new rims, new colors (like iPhone's S generation ), and I assure you they will sell like hotcakes.

Also, the Falcon Wing Door is going to be here FOREVER, and Tesla will improve it.
Yes it is expensive, but people will pay even more.
It is a symbol, you can't take that away.

 

[Fact Checking]

Porsche has 20k plus pre-orders. Those people could take Porsche to court right away, not in some mythical future.

Actually, if you try to "pre-order" a Taycan, you'll quickly find that you can't. What you can do is to "register interest" in a Taycan:

https://www.porsche.com/usa/microsite/e-performance-deposit/

https://www.porsche.com/filestore/d...Registration-General-Terms-and-Conditions.pdf

"Except as may specifically be described in these General Terms and Conditions, PCNA shall have no obligation to Prospective Buyer in respect of the Taycan Deposit Program. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, by participating in the Taycan Deposit Program, Prospective Buyer shall not acquire (i) any right to purchase a Porsche Taycan vehicle, (ii) any claim against PCNA, Dealer or any other Porsche dealer, or the manufacturer for delivery of a Porsche Taycan vehicle, or (iii) any claim for preferential treatment respecting the purchase of a Porsche Taycan vehicle as compared to customers who did not participate in the Taycan Deposit Program."​

I.e. a Taycan "pre-order" holder has very little standing to sue Porsche over claims made today or in the past.

Once Porsche actually starts delivering Taycans we'll have to take another look at the various claims they make regarding their product and the related battery pack warranty conditions.

Note that even if they do keep their 350 kW charging speed promise, it's also entirely possible that they are still lying, they are just slowly fragging their battery packs with 350 kW charging speeds and will replace fried battery packs under warranty until they can come up with a better approach - consciously taking into account the fact that 350 kW chargers are still very rare, so only a comparatively small percentage of customers would be affected. (I believe @KarenRei made a similar argument.)

I still cannot believe how EV proponents can give ICE carmakers the benefit of the doubt. ICE carmakers are in a struggle for survival, they know it, and they are fighting the dirtiest fight they can get away with.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So I guess you got the disagrees over this claim:

"I bet that the redesign won't be called S and X, and that they will get rid of the falcon wing doors too."​

Sorry, but that's two pieces of nonsense in a single sentence:

• Do you really think that Elon will get rid of the near infinite marketing value of the 'S3X', 'S3XY', 'S3XYR' naming?
• Why would Tesla get rid of the Falcon Wing Doors: while Elon himself admits that it was an overly complex design, Tesla already paid the costs of that overly complex design, and they are now cashing in on the benefits. Why would Tesla get rid of a major differentiator to other luxury SUVs that other carmakers probably won't be able to replicate for a long time? People who don't like the doors can buy a high end Model Y configuration, or the Tesla Truck, or passenger versions of the eventual Tesla Van.

What is possible sometime this year, or early next year, is a Model S/X interior refresh, and maybe a new battery pack if their new contract with Panasonic is good enough. That's all, I think - the S/X will be their premium luxury brands for many, many years to come.

A reassuring thing about the eventual S/X refresh is that its Osborne proof.

Many will prefer the classic look, possibly a collectors item, and rush to grab the last of the supply.

 

[Fact Checking]

A reassuring thing about the eventual S/X refresh is that its Osborne proof.

Many will prefer the classic look, possibly a collectors item, and rush to grab the last of the supply.

Yes, and this is why I think that the interior refresh might be done after any new battery packs are introduced - because that way Tesla can maximize sales to people who prefer the classic design with a newer pack, but also to people who like the modern, simplified, streamlined interior.

OTOH if Tesla doesn't plan to add larger than 100 kWh S/X packs anytime soon then they might do the interior refresh independently.

 

[Words of HABIT]

NIO Has the Electric-Car Look, But It's No Tesla - BNN Bloomberg

For those invested in NIO, please read this Sept 3/18 article by Anjani Trivedi, Bloomberg News. Spot on.
Highlights:
"A self-declared rival of Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., NIO has been on the road rallying global investors for an imminent listing in New York – just as Musk’s troubles escalate. The public offering would value the electric-car maker at somewhere between $8 billion and $9 billion, an eye-popping sum for a company that doesn’t actually manufacture its own vehicles."
"Under the fancy accessories, NIO doesn't make even make the dress. Its cars are manufactured by state-backed Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., or JAC, at a new plant in Hefei, per the prospectus, under a five-year agreement signed in 2016. For the first three years, NIO pays per-car and foots the bill for the plant’s operating losses."
"But here’s the thing: NIO can’t get its own electric-car manufacturing license until it has its own factory. The Shanghai government is building the company a plant, but even once that’s up and running, a license isn’t guaranteed."
"Around a quarter of NIO’s targeted $1.3 billion of IPO funds are earmarked for manufacturing facilities, including the Shanghai plant."

NIO is a self proclaimed lifestyle company of which one of its components is an outsource auto manufacturer. Will they return the $1.3B to investors now that they announced they no longer have intentions of manufacturing their own products?

The 60 Minutes spot on Tesla a few months ago was a hack job, manipulative and instigator of FUD. TSLA dropped.

The 60 Minutes spot on NIO last week was all praise, where they could do not wrong. NIO rose 10%. 60 Minutes included a clip of NIO cars being manufactured at AJAGC or JAC and made no mention that their manufacturing was all outsourced. No mention that their entire EV sales to date is eclipsed by Tesla after only a few weeks of production. NIO is no "Tesla of China". Not in the least. If I was investing outside of Tesla, which I am not, I would look at NIO's manufacturers, not NIO.

But do not despair. The Paid Media (yes, 60 Minutes would fall into that category as they only exist due to their sponsors) is becoming less relevant by the day. Tesla, keep doing what you are doing. Tesla does not need them, not with Elon at 25 million followers on Twitter. The tide is turning in favour of EVs and the tide is turning to Tesla. Truth will prevail. Without Tesla, there would be no BOLT, iPace, eTron, i-Buzz, Taycan, Polestar, I.D.Buzz or NIO. Go green. Go EV. Go Tesla.

 

[Toumal]

When looking at Q1 deliveries remember to factor cars on boats. There was always going to be one quarter, the start of shipping, with more cars made than delivered. This is it. This is also going to be severance pay quarter, another one off. Think of it as a bear trap, if that helps.

Yeah but you already know that certain people will look only at the US deliveries and say "See? Demand has peaked!"

 

[bobo]

Yes, public ones.

EVgo launches first public 350-kw fast charger

VW’s Electrify America opens California’s first 350kW ultra-fast charger, before cars can actually use it

Jaguar I-PACE Tested At 350 kW Ultra-Fast Charger (Ionity)

None so far. Taycan will be the first, I think.

I am the founder of uppladdning.nu and and we had some reports that the 350kW chargers are not equipped to charge with 350kW. They need to be updated with new cables that would be able to handle the high power. Also 350kW is a theoretical number. In reality the battery pack in the car has a nominal voltage that limits the charging rate.

See a photo of a plate on one of the ionity chargers:

The rating of the Ionity chargers is: 200VDC to 920VDC at max 500A.
This theoretically 100kW (@200VDC) and 460kW (@920VDC)...

 

[Antares Nebula]

So I guess you got the disagrees over this claim:

"I bet that the redesign won't be called S and X, and that they will get rid of the falcon wing doors too."​

Sorry, but that's two pieces of nonsense in a single sentence:

• Do you really think that Elon will get rid of the near infinite marketing value of the 'S3X', 'S3XY', 'S3XYR' naming?
• Why would Tesla get rid of the Falcon Wing Doors: while Elon himself admits that it was an overly complex design, Tesla already paid the costs of that overly complex design, and they are now cashing in on the benefits. Why would Tesla get rid of a major differentiator to other luxury SUVs that other carmakers probably won't be able to replicate for a long time? People who don't like the doors can buy a high end Model Y configuration, or the Tesla Truck, or passenger versions of the eventual Tesla Van.

What is possible sometime this year, or early next year, is a Model S/X interior refresh, and maybe a new battery pack if their new contract with Panasonic is good enough. That's all, I think - the S/X will be their premium luxury brands for many, many years to come.

Maybe they keep the S and X name. I don't know. But if the X gets redesigned, then they may get rid of the falcon wing doors. I understand what you're saying about all the time and effort already put in. But with a redesign (assuming I'm right about that), then they may have to go through that pain again, which they may choose not too.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Could very well be, he mentioned China primarily and that US could be a “backwater” for ICE vehicles

Fire Away!

I have to agree. There is more discretionary income in the states and there is a deep seated love of loud cars that go fast and spew lots of stuff I don't care to breath into the air.

Dan

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla's path to growth is in expanding Model 3 production and bootstrapping Model Y, a major refresh of the S/X this year or even next year would probably be a misallocation of capex resources.

Maybe announce it next year, and release it in 2021. So no major capex now. It's in the design phase now (ask Franz ). Maybe they even do it in steps, with the S first, then later the X (as it is more recent than the S). Look, I'm will to admit that this may not happen also. But I do think it is *likely* based on the reasons I gave above.