Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarrenHD]

I was a long term shareholder until this morning, I unloaded everything just after the opening bell. eeked out a 3% gain, not much... considering when we were at $375 I had huge gains. But I am not about to sell at a loss, or hold on to paper losses for any extended period of time. I will buy back in when I see conditions improve...and right now this is not the time.

 

[mad474]

+10 @ 242

 

[Chartered321]

Is this a simulation or reality? I've been margin called 3 times today

 

[KSilver2000]

I see some fog on your crystal ball...

Really?

Could have done so a few seconds later, but I'm not pretending I can pin point the bottom with buys.

Not trying to time the bottom. But there’s really no catalyst to prop this up besides some optimistic people who believe it can’t go any lower.

My oh my, how far this has fallen. From $420 to $240 soon.

 

[WarpedOne]

If it broke, it wasn't a support.

We are going under 200.

Why?
Because it can.

 

[Drax7]

Okay, that does it. Every time I read a post that says there’s a demand issue, I’m going to buy a TSLA share. That way I’ll be able to say, when I’m basking on my own island, ‘If I had a TSLA share for every time I heard someone say Tesla has a demand issue, I’d own my own island.’

And yes, I’m serious. I’ve already transferred money into my trading account.

You may now officially quote my new tagline (with appropriate credit): ‘When living in bizarro world, get richer.’

The Krug is buying a share at a time.

 

[tivoboy]

Care to share more information with us?

I see 243 as strong support : previous long term (1 year) support. So I consider it a really nice buying point.

I’ve already shared. I just don’t do it daily.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I was a long term shareholder until this morning, I unloaded everything just after the opening bell. eeked out a 3% gain, not much... considering when we were at $375 I had huge gains. But I am not about to sell at a loss, or hold on to paper losses for any extended period of time. I will buy back in when I see conditions improve...and right now this is not the time.

That's when you know it's close to the bottom.

 

[Tslynk67]

Blah, I've little dry-powder right now, but still looking for an SEC resolution pop and maybe some positive April figures next week, so grabbed a 262.50 strike for net Friday - it was actually trading at $1.18 and I put a limit of $1, so I as really surprised that it executed for $0.93

 

[cricketman]

I've just bought another 50. I now must be one of Tesla's biggest shareholders, I own 7 millionths of the company!

I have a $350,000 share holding in Tesla

There are only four outcomes here. For theoretical purposes, lets give all four outcomes an equal weighting:
- Tesla goes bankrupt and I lose all my money.
- Tesla grows slowly to become "only" another car company in which EVs will always make up a small percentage of total vehicle sales. In which case based on competitor valuations, current valuation is more or less fair, therefore I hold my money, but gain nothing
- Tesla grows to sell over 10 million vehicles per year and heavily disrupts in car industry and energy storage and solar energy also take off. In which case, within 10 years, valuation is likely to be $300-500bn. My share holding becomes worth $3m
- Tesla does the above and also robotaxis change the world, valuation likely to be $2trillion. My share holding becomes worth $15m

Elon Musk has deliberately designed the business strategy in that Tesla can win via a number of different ways. Either scaling the cars, or via autonomous taxis, or via energy storage and solar. They don't all have to come off in order to win, only one or two have to come off big time.

It seems to me that the only way the current share price of Tesla is justified is if the market is given a 90% possibility to Tesla going bankrupt. If a private investor does not agree with this, and has available capital, they would be a fool not to invest in Tesla

 

[farzyness]

Weak retail investors selling their shares to strong retail investors and strong institutional investors.

 

[JRP3]

Wood's bear case is $700 vs $4,000 bull scenario. And yet she trades around the stock constantly. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Buy low, sell high and all that, and I very much appreciate ARK's real time transparency, but her actions don't always mirror her public pronouncements.

They publicly state that the fund can only hold a certain percentage of any stock, so when it goes above that they sell, when it goes below that they buy. Transparent and consistent.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

The Krug is buying a share at a time.

Quick, everyone post about demand issues and we’ll see a spike.

 

[brian45011]

So AFAIK the overwhelming majority of carmakers self-insure against that kind of risk - including the financial risk of recalls. (Which is a sort of insurance risk as well.)

Or were VW's and BMW's and Mercedes's recent fines and jury awards paid by insurance companies?

There many different types of risks and insurance products/programs to allocate the exposures between insurers and insureds. I was not referring to regulatory fines nor ensuing civil judgments in favor of customers for economic harm. VW's, BMW's, and Mercedes' structured risk programs may have had some protection for the economic harm caused to its customers, but insurers generally eschew moral hazards so most policies/programs contain an exclusion for regulatory fines, penalties, etc.

My concern with Tesla deciding it will now become an insurer is about the risk of mega-awards (including punitive damages) for bodily injuries/deaths caused by Tesla FSD vehicles. The little information about Tesla's prior offering of insurance products seemed to be restricted to property damage to the covered vehicles only--with no protection for third party harm.

When Auto-Pilot was first introduced, Tesla approach was to allocate contractually the 3rd party risks to the vehicle buyers/owners (and their auto liability policy carriers.) As the technology advances and the vehicles' operation become progressively independent of driver actions that becomes an increasingly less viable approach--as the announcement about becoming an insurer seems to recognize.

Tesla discloses it fully self-insures its product liability exposure. Product liability jurisprudence only requires proof of a "defect" and proximate cause. As the Tesla fleet of vehicles on roads expands and as they become increasingly reliant on Tesla hardware and software that decision really needs to be re-evaluated.

While there is no way of "knowing," it's highly doubtful that the overwhelming major of carmakers fully self-insure their product liability exposures. While most may have a structured program that includes a self-retained layer at the lower levels, I suspect that they also have excess liability policies that transfer the higher levels of potential financial ruin to insurers and re-insurers

 

[Unpilot]

Bought more at 243.45

In for more at 243...in spite of saying I aint buying more ...I am to overexposed at least 10 times

 

[Big Blue 1011]

They publicly state that the fund can only hold a certain percentage of any stock, so when it goes above that they sell, when it goes below that they buy. Transparent and consistent.

That can't possibly explain purchases and sales in the hundreds of thousands of shares over the course of a single quarter. Or the 276,000 shares purchased yesterday.

 

[Todd Burch]

For those around here seemingly capitulating, this popped up on my Slacker station.

Seemed relevant.

 

[Tslynk67]

I've just bought another 50. I now must be one of Tesla's biggest shareholders, I own 7 millionths of the company!

I have a $350,000 share holding in Tesla

There are only four outcomes here. For theoretical purposes, lets give all four outcomes an equal weighting:
- Tesla goes bankrupt and I lose all my money.
- Tesla grows slowly to become "only" another car company in which EVs will always make up a small percentage of total vehicle sales. In which case based on competitor valuations, current valuation is more or less fair, therefore I hold my money, but gain nothing
- Tesla grows to sell over 10 million vehicles per year and heavily disrupts in car industry and energy storage and solar energy also take off. In which case, within 10 years, valuation is likely to be $300-500bn. My share holding becomes worth $3m
- Tesla does the above and also robotaxis change the world, valuation likely to be $2trillion. My share holding becomes worth $15m

Elon Musk has deliberately designed the business strategy in that Tesla can win via a number of different ways. Either scaling the cars, or via autonomous taxis, or via energy storage and solar. They don't all have to come off in order to win, only one or two have to come off big time.

It seems to me that the only way the current share price of Tesla is justified is if the market is given a 90% possibility to Tesla going bankrupt. If a private investor does not agree with this, and has available capital, they would be a fool not to invest in Tesla

I've a third of your investment and share the same outlook. I cannot see Tesla going bankrupt, if they really got that far they would be bank-rolled somehow. Elon has very rich friends.

So although the SP going down is chronically stressful, I don't sell and ride it out. I have 15 years until official retirement age, should be find. Sooner would be nicer though...

 

[larmor]

Intel trimming self driving chip staff, capitulation to Nvida and Tesla?

 

[brian45011]

• or whether it was Dane seeing a share price below $300 while he signed up at around $350.

Unlikely; most new Tesla hires at that level are also awarded zero-basis RSUs; but will never know since Mr. Butswinkas did not file Form 3 nor 4.