Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

f**k wall street

 

[Artful Dodger]

Weak retail investors selling their shares to strong retail investors and strong institutional investors.

Maybe a tiny few weak retail holders left, but this is shorting. Already 4.1M shares traded today in the 1st hr. Will update today's short volume after the close.

Yesterday (Apri 25, 2019) the short volume reported by FINRA was 65%

tsla | Volumebot

 

[SOULPEDL]

There are no sales without buyers...

I bought some back... my IRA's getting pretty low. Model Y on hold for now.
Karen's probably glad she pulled out pre earnings. This is yucky.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Maybe a tiny few weak retail holders left, but this is shorting. Already 4.1M shares traded today in the 1st hr. Will update today's short volume after the close.

Yesterday (Apri 25, 2019) the short volume reported by FINRA was 65%

tsla | Volumebot

View attachment 400890

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Softbank bought into GM's Cruise Automation at a valuation of 14.6B. All of Tesla is valued at only 42B. How does this make any sense

Tesla should have been courting Softbank and other investors they should have also looked at a strategic partnership, or raised capital but here we are, a ton of money has been invested in Tesla's competitors instead but Tesla either wasn't interested or investors judged Musk someone they couldn't work with.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Weak retail investors selling their shares to strong retail investors and strong institutional investors.

Bought 50, but I'm not that strong...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

Crazy is what crazy does.
No... don't break the stock!

 

[elasalle]

.

I was a long term shareholder until this morning, I unloaded everything just after the opening bell. eeked out a 3% gain, not much... considering when we were at $375 I had huge gains. But I am not about to sell at a loss, or hold on to paper losses for any extended period of time. I will buy back in when I see conditions improve...and right now this is not the time.

Had Doubts myself. Had same thoughts today. Account is back to like 2015 numbers for me. ( I am now like 45-50% TSLA, 25% increase happened after the 420 debacle, each time thinking it was gonna get better ...)

However, I sold Jul covered-calls for 280
Added more Jan 21 calls (Accumulation in this is strong) ...

 

[JRP3]

That can't possibly explain purchases and sales in the hundreds of thousands of shares over the course of a single quarter. Or the 276,000 shares purchased yesterday.

Why not? If their TSLA holdings go above I think 10% of their portfolio they have to sell, if it's below that they are free to buy more.

 

[PANN]

I've just bought another 50. I now must be one of Tesla's biggest shareholders, I own 7 millionths of the company!

I have a $350,000 share holding in Tesla

- Tesla does the above and also robotaxis change the world, valuation likely to be $2trillion. My share holding becomes worth $15m

Totally agree. I have two times of your shares.

I think we are going through institution investor change hands right now -- Auto/EV investors selling, tech/autonomous investors buying.

Elon and team have successfully turned FSD into a software refinement problem now, and I have strong confidence they can achieve at least 90% of FSD by end of 2019. Mark my words.

 

[Majorgroove]

Ferrari makes 8k car a year, has market cap of 30B and a PE of 30. Yeah.. no fuss over the valuation here eh?

 

[StockCynic]

Could be lots of technical analysts trading/shorting as well. $250 was a really important technical level, probably lots betting that there is more negative momentum in the short term.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

As @Papafox teaches us, "look for the icicles". Let's see if we can find one obvious drop in the chart, then I'll look up the volume for that minute, okay?

BRB...

Okay, the most obvious 1-min drop today was between 09:54 and 09:55

The volume for those minutes can be seen in the red bars at the bottom of the chart. We're seeing volume spikes into the 150K shares per minute range.

BTW, the avg volume per min during the 1st hr was 68,300

No share holder DUMPS shares like that, since it automatically depletes the order book and drives down the bid/ask break-even price, which becomes the SP when a trade executes.

So about a 70K dump of shares sold short all in repeated batches drives down the SP.

This is Shortzie, and he knows what he's doing. It's a bear raid by shorts.

 

[Alphacrux]

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

Not only ill-informed, but actually crazed. TSLAQ believe TSLA is worth exactly zero. In their crazed minds, there is another ~$240 to go...

 

[Unpilot]

I've just bought another 50. I now must be one of Tesla's biggest shareholders, I own 7 millionths of the company!

I have a $350,000 share holding in Tesla

There are only four outcomes here. For theoretical purposes, lets give all four outcomes an equal weighting:
- Tesla goes bankrupt and I lose all my money.
- Tesla grows slowly to become "only" another car company in which EVs will always make up a small percentage of total vehicle sales. In which case based on competitor valuations, current valuation is more or less fair, therefore I hold my money, but gain nothing
- Tesla grows to sell over 10 million vehicles per year and heavily disrupts in car industry and energy storage and solar energy also take off. In which case, within 10 years, valuation is likely to be $300-500bn. My share holding becomes worth $3m
- Tesla does the above and also robotaxis change the world, valuation likely to be $2trillion. My share holding becomes worth $15m

Elon Musk has deliberately designed the business strategy in that Tesla can win via a number of different ways. Either scaling the cars, or via autonomous taxis, or via energy storage and solar. They don't all have to come off in order to win, only one or two have to come off big time.

It seems to me that the only way the current share price of Tesla is justified is if the market is given a 90% possibility to Tesla going bankrupt. If a private investor does not agree with this, and has available capital, they would be a fool not to invest in Tesla

Pretty much how I view this as well. Anytime I get a little shaky in my faith in the company I go for a drive.
Last night I drove home from the Airport (a two hour drive at 1am) Using NOA and listening to a podcast was so stress free. Sure the rain sensing wipers were a little quirky but they are a lot better than they used to be. The autopilot is miles ahead of were it was a short time ago. Like Joe Rogan said other cars are just stupid.

That clip is NSFY

When you have a product this superior it is going to be very disruptive. What we are seeing is that disruption convulsing through a lot of old entrenched industries and their response.

Hint...they don't like it too much.

Long and aint selling for quite a while

 

[brian45011]

I think it was clear I was speaking about quarterly bleeding, but I admit I could have been more precise.

Those VIEs are complex, arcane constructs that are more about harvesting income tax benefits than investment returns, but perhaps many of SolarCity's VIEs are entering the "flip" stage.

Project Finance for Solar Projects | Stoel Rives LLP
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...r-2014-aes-presentation-es6-topic2-112614.pdf
https://warren-selbert.com/docs/definitions/PartnershipFlipTransactions.pdf

It's possible that many who supported the SCTY acquisition never understood the impact of VIEs.

 

[Beaver]

Someone on Reddit found Tesla’s insurance paperwork.

New Tesla Insurance Program Filing in California 4,037 pages : RealTesla

It is a collaboration with State National insurance.

 

[Aieukl378]

My first call options expired worthlessly last week. I’m afraid many other calls I hold with Jan ‘20 and Jan ‘21expiry might face the same fate... I have $320, $365, $385 strikes and paid a pretty penny for those years back when TSLA was trading somewhat comfortably in the $300+ range.
Never ever would I have thought with where the company is today in terms of sales growth and maturity that we are back in the mid $200’s...
I keep my hope on a summer rally to get rid of all my calls (they’re all on margin—about $240K) at break-even. $400 seems a pipe dream, I very much doubt it will ever happen.

Also, never thought we'd see these lows and looks like it's quite possible we're heading to the 240s(soon). Once the SEC drama is resolved and the stock reaction to that subsides AND If Elon could give up Twitter(which he can't) we'd be back into the 300s in no time.

So as predicted, here we are. I think if SEC/twitter thing was resolved yesterday we'd be heading north today but now extended another week. In any case, scaling here with long term(5-10 yr) timeline probably ridiculous great opportunity. Hate short term speculation but monster bounce coming(maybe now...maybe summer?) but I think back in 300s minimum within 120 days.

 

[shootformoon]

So you are calling a cumulative cash benefit of $750m+ "bleeding", and proof for why the Solar City acquisition was a bad idea?

Oh, and you do this after Q4 and Q1, the two autumn-winter quarters with weak solar sales, right before Q2 where the VIEs will seasonally probably generate cash again?

Rather disingenuous arguments.

It's all about capital efficiency. If the shares added to buy out solar city was all cash in bank and no debt assumed, there would be no more capital raise for tsla, almost forever. $2.6B stocks +3B debt, for $750m "cash flow"(no GF2 idling cost was included) 10 quarter, 5.5% fake yearly return? is this good enough for tesla?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

They want a short squeeze? They’re secretly buying calls? Nothing makes sense.