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Couple hundred thousand reservations? Maybe if the car was priced at $15-20k USD. From what I have read the China made version will be roughly 15% cheaper than the current imported SR+? If that is correct I definitely would not be getting hopes up for "hundreds of thousands"

The cost of that convertible debt all-in when factoring the offsetting hedge and warrant transaction was ~8% which is in the ballpark of the current YTM on the unsecured bonds Tesla issued back in August of 2017. There is no "free lunch" so to speak, people see 2% coupon and think wow what a...

Could be lots of technical analysts trading/shorting as well. $250 was a really important technical level, probably lots betting that there is more negative momentum in the short term.

How do you figure? Current market cap is ~ $43b, $200 a share would be an 18.7% discount to current SP (200/246). That would value the equity at roughly $35b. Add in the $2b in cash received and the value should theoretically be somewhere around $37b. Seems like it would come out to more than...

Odd that its taking so long. I know Tesla goes their own way but it would be kind of nice if they could be a bit more like Microsoft or FB and just have the press release ready to go at 1:00PM. Doesn't seem like it would be too challenging, its nice to have time to read the letter and look at...

"Several hundred million per quarter" is just not a realistic haul from FCA. FCA earned a net profit of $3.6b in 2018, most of which comes from North America. It would be cheaper for the automaker to shutter European operations entirely rather than pay several hundred million ($250m-$300m) per...

How viable is leasing the Model 3 for Tesla? They only have $1b currently available on the warehouse line. That amount would also need to be shared with Model S/X lease financing. We should see an amendment to that contract soon if that is how the plan to finance. $1b in financing is still only...

This is definitely weighing them down. I'm not sure if simply honoring reservation holders' orders would completely devoid the company of any legal liability. Tesla executed multiple capital raises on the promise of the mass-market $35,000 vehicle. Not sure whether or not that would come back to...

Tesla has been very explicit in their marketing of FSD. Coast to coast is what they have been selling. It might be worth $30,000 but Tesla already sold it to tens of thousands of customers at a price tag of $3,000. If Tesla cannot deliver something soon its a big problem.

Just to clarify, the Saudi Public Investment Fund does not have anywhere NEAR $2 Trillion Dollars, the entire size of the fund is something around $250 Billion. Now could they possibly fund a complete buyout of Tesla, yes, would you ever concentrate that much capital in one (risky) venture? No...

Well actually no, the Clean Air Act only requires the EPA to grant California a waiver so long as California's standards are deemed necessary "to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions". That phrase is the key, those conditions are interpreted by the EPA bureaucracy, if the conditions are...

CARB and CAFE standards are currently being challenged by the administration. They are undergoing the requisite public comment period at the moment, however, as we have seen with the tariffs the public comment period is seemingly nothing but a formality for this administration. Comment period...

My friend, you must be smoking the Joe Rogan, there is no way in hell that Tesla is selling 40,000 S/X in Q3.

How can investor support be confirmed if according to the blog post today he hadn't talked to any major investors prior to his tweet on Tuesday, I doubt he was able to get on the phone with all major investor in the 30 minutes between tweets. A deal is not certain, you did not read his blog...

So last Tuesday the only reason the deal hasn't gone through is because it needs a shareholder vote? Yet it would be premature release full details of the plan and funding..? Now that is confusing.

The tech high fliers of the last decade have been taking a beating over the last several trading sessions. I suspect this will continue as we move deeper into the tightening phase of the FED rate cycle. For 10 years the story with NFLX, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG (just a few examples) has always been "its...

They delivered 260 Model 3's in Q3 of 2017. A reasonable person might assume that if you were producing "a few hundred per week" in July 2017 that you would probably be delivering more than 260 over the course of the July - Sep 2017....

I am working through the document right now. While claims about forward guidance are inherently difficult to assess there are several instances that are huge question marks for me: [Finally, with respect to the automated line in Fremont, Musk stated that there existed "a gigantic machine...

Has anyone seen this court filing before or is today the first day it has been made public? Seeing it make the rounds on some social media. Dropbox - Wochos v. Tesla 17-cv-05828-CRB #37.pdf It's definitely dense, drudging through corporate law is most assuredly not as sexy financial...

Except it is not only this one piece that suggests Tesla is having cash difficulties. You could start with the balance sheet and see that their net working capital deficit equals the entirety of their current cash position (and that was as of 3/31/2018, that ratio will have deteriorated further...

This will be an ugly quarter. I am forecasting GAAP loss to be right around the same as Q1 ~ (4.20). I am expecting 0 sales of ZEV credits as Tesla will want those stockpiled for the back end of the year. Also expecting some form of restructuring charge probably in the realm of 50-70m for the...

You clearly did not read the Q1 shareholder update letter. It specifically states that "Net Reservations includes configured orders that have not yet been delivered." Therefore if someone who did not have a reservation, but configures an order on July 19th, that person would be included in the...

This is my take on the situation using the information directly from Tesla. http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1b240f1e-b519-4b40-b14b-fea44698c3af The Q1 update letter states that as of the end of Q1 (March 31) "Net Reservations exceeded 450,000". "Net Reservations" is a confusing figure...

What I mean by fixed demand is that the regulations have been set and haven't changed recently. All the automakers know about the escalating compliance mandates. Even with the ZEV fleet compliance rising over time to 22% (I believe this to be the terminal value) around mid 2020s the OEMS have...

If the other manufacturers REALLY wanted to hurt Tesla they would buy 0 credits from Tesla over the next 6 months. There are plenty of credits to go around in the market for the next couple of years, so no penalty costs would even be incurred. That would really hurt Tesla as the 100% margins and...

There are different standards for Mazda which is classified as an "Intermediate Volume" manufacturer vs GM "Large Volume" the requirements are lighter on them. Off the top of my head I do not know how many credits they have "banked". What I mean by banked is that they have purchased surplus...

ZEV credits will have less of an impact going forward for Tesla. We already saw this happen last year (2017 vs 2016) with the growth in revenue from regulatory credits being much smaller on a percentage basis than the growth in deliveries and auto revenue. The reason being is that the other big...

I don't care how frustrated you are, calling somebody a "pedo guy" on twitter, why? why would you do something so obviously stupid? A non-trivial piece of the Tesla story is the intangible value of the brand. This hurts the brand, the company, and the mission, whoever has Elon's ear needs to...

A few days ago he's talking to Bloomberg about cleaning up his act and focusing on the important thing which is running the company, less than a week later and this happens. The man is obviously brilliant, however, you're a grown ass man worth 20 billion dollars, where is the self control? He is...

That is a bold assertion, recession-proof products? I don't think that is certain as you think. There certainly is a difference between buying a new phone vs. a car. I think Tesla would be wise to raise capital as soon as possible. The Fed is raising interest rates like clockwork each quarter...