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  1. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I read the tariff list published by China government, no auto (and Tesla). Also on SeekingAlpha (Auto sector skids after China tariff shot - Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (OTCMKTS:BMWYY) | Seeking Alpha). Highlight mine. Auto stocks are down in early trading after China threatens...
  2. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Doesn't include tariffs on auto and Tesla.
  3. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On TSLA's return for past 5 years or 8 years, I want to add that before 2018, Elon said a few times publicly that he doesn't think Tesla deserve the valuation at the time. But with M3 mass production and FSD on its way, Elon is saying TSLA should worth 10x current valuation. That's an important...
  4. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    According to sales ranking of Autohome (#1 auto review & sales portal in China), Model 3 just climbed to the top spot of mid-size car sales in all tier-1 cities of China like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen...
  5. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Liu emphasized that China government need a trade deal with dignity, and he hope his US counterparts understand this. My interpretations are that some terms from US would make Xi look weak in domestic politics and undermine his ruling, he can't take that. So Xi negated them after Liu agreed with...
  6. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just saw video comments from China lead negotiator Vice Premier He Liu, doesn't seem like China will retaliate immediately with tariff on US cars. If Tesla act quickly, they can probably make enough M3 and ship them to China before tariff, so Q2 delivery # won't be hurt. Tesla probably only...
  7. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Exactly. Longs should keep that in mind and don't lose heart.
  8. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Institution investors have to disclose their Q1 holding by May 15, let's see :)
  9. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The 13 million additional shorted shares, plus another 8 million shares sold by T Rowe in Q1, that's over 20 million shares, I wonder who bought these shares?
  10. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is probably the reason for the pop pre-market, the valuation of Cruise is a clear indication of how much undervalued is TSLA.
  11. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    GM Cruise raises $1.15B at a $19B valuation from Softbank and Honda – TechCrunch GM Cruise has raised another $1.15 billion in new equity from a group of investors that includes T. Rowe Price Associates, Honda, Softbank Vision Fund and its parent company GM as the self-driving vehicle company...
  12. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Latest report on Trade Deal from Reuters: U.S.: China reneged on trade commitments, sparking Trump tariff hike - Reuters A person familiar with the negotiations said the latest dispute came after the Chinese side sought to deal with policy changes through administrative and regulatory actions...
  13. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They showed a faster version for investor rides on Autonomous Day. But safety first always, I'm fine with it being slow and conservative in initial release, and make it faster after people used it millions of times and feel confident with safety. I think Elon said similar approach to NoA lane...
  14. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think Enhanced Summon will go viral on the internet when rolled out later this month. It's actually FSD with Remote Human Supervision to me, after reviewing some early access videos. I also expect people try to do all kinds of crazy and funny things with it, and post videos. With the above, I...
  15. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes not blocked, but still faster access on VPN I find. Twitter, Youtube, Google and etc are all blocked, so I'm on VPN all the time.
  16. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    VPN. Not a trader myself, am a long holding investor and fan.
  17. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just saw first Chinese domestic media report came out on trade deal -- China government speaker said the negotiation team is preparing to go to the US for next round negotiations. Seem setting the narratives now, after all day silence.
  18. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah everybody in the market know about it, but the media is forbidden to talk about it at all so far.
  19. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So far absolute zero report on Trump tariff threat in Chinese domestic media, must be the Chinese government, IMHO looks more like they are working out the differences than a break-down on trade deal, otherwise I should have seen tons of Trump bashing in Chinese domestic media.
  20. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My take on the lease price adjustment is Tesla want to maximize both production and leases, in order to build up the Robotaxi Fleet as fast as they can in next 3 years in semi-stealth mode, with lease customer pay for the upfront cost. If one don't see Elon as a fraud with his FSD/Robotaxi plan...
  21. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just realized Tesla could be timing the cap raise just after close of April, so that they can show some good delivery numbers to the convertible notes investors. Now it'll be very interesting to see the conversion SP.
  22. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's all good. I really don't like the wave and all the delivery uncertainties and staff burns it caused.
  23. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In hindsight, it could have been better to announce this cap raise together with Q1 result, just saying...
  24. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla April US deliveries (S+X+3): -- Edmunds forecasted 11,668 on April 27. -- InsideEV came in 11,925 on May 1. The numbers look good to me.
  25. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMHO it's possible that Tesla gets big strategic buy-in from Sovereign Funds in this downturn, most likely Norway or even Singapore. They are the best kinds of deep-pocket long-term holding investors that Tesla need most. 1. Norway -- just look at Model 3 sales number in Norway! Plus recent...
  26. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla’s Autonomy Day, the Stock, Short Sellers and More (http://www.hamidshojaee.com/post/184522555004/teslas-autonomy-day-the-stock-short-sellers-and) Not sure whether this has been posted here, worth reading twice by every bull :)
  27. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Looking at this chart, I think we don't have to worry too much about Q3 sales, i.e. after Europe and China clear backlog orders. Smaller sedans are much more popular in Europe and China. If USA can do so well in Q1, no need to worry about Europe and China in Q3 and beyond.
  28. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is it possible to find out the top-10 Tesla shortsellers by size of position? I've been thinking about it recently. Who are they? They want to destroy Tesla/Elon and all of us bulls so badly, we don't even know who they are? that's not right. My rough estimates: of the total ~30 million shares...
  29. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ron Baron Comments on Tesla - from Ron Baron's Baron Partners Fund 2019Q1 shareholder letter. The 15.9% decline in the price of Tesla's stock in the first quarter penalized the Fund's performance by 2.82%. Tesla is Baron Partners Fund's second largest holding and represents 10.7% of its...
  30. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think we don't have to worry too much, before the 420 tweets, Tesla has been a public company for 8 years and Elon's tweets in those 8 years have never been accused of any violation by SEC. I believe the 420 tweets is a one-off thing and Elon has learnt the lesson.
  31. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can someone influential on Twitter to start a Buy 1 Tesla Share campaign and we retweet to all Tesla owners? The shorts want to destroy Tesla in this round, let the Cult give them a real war.
  32. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here in China, FUD is at the peakest level ever. When I open my market newsfeed (in Chinese) in the morning, of the 30-50 news worldwide I got 6-10 negative Tesla pieces, that's 20-30% of all market news, just insane, most hit pieces on US media and SeekingAlpha got translated into Chinese and...
  33. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just how ridiculous the current SP is, to put it plainly, if tomorrow Tesla just spin off the FSD/Robotaxi unit into sth like Waymo, should it be valued at least the same as Waymo? which is ~4 times of current Tesla market cap.
  34. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMHO even if Tesla achieved FSD in just 80-90% of major locations & routes (those well marked roads and not very chaotic) by end of 2019, we will likely see a repeat of SP movement in 2013-2014 (when it go from $30 to $200 in 6 months). Mass production of M3 is not such a powerful catalyst to...
  35. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Plus it's so obvious Tesla is anti-selling Y in all fronts because of cannibalization of near-term M3 sales.
  36. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are a textbook example of bull investor we should all learn from. Kudos to you sir!
  37. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMHO when we see some long term bulls turn sour & sell/leave publicly, it's usually the sign of bottom. Old bulls left, new bulls bought in at this cheap level and huge volume, will start new cycle.
  38. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Still in and added 1000 shares today. Long term holding since early 2016.
  39. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I read this NN blog from Karpathy a few times, very helpful. My company is doing software and NN, so I have pretty high confidence that Tesla will achieve high level of FSD by end of 2019. Software can be easily managed by just a small group of talented engineers, and it's 100 times easier and...
  40. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm no expert with TA, but I guess with ~$10B shorts can make any technicals they want you to see, don't fall for it.
  41. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Want to remind everybody that you are seeing these SP levels because there are ~$10B keep draging it downwards, the real SP is much higher. Once you see through this, you will be calm and refuse to be manipulated by shorts.
  42. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Totally agree. I have two times of your shares. I think we are going through institution investor change hands right now -- Auto/EV investors selling, tech/autonomous investors buying. Elon and team have successfully turned FSD into a software refinement problem now, and I have strong...
  43. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Frankly, for the past 3 years that I've been following Tesla/Elon, I think the 420 tweet is the only thing that Elon owe retail investors an apology, actually not the 420 tweet itself, but the following tweets such as "Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder...
  44. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMHO there's no mis-interpretation by media on closing most stores - Elon thought most people would choose 35K SR and no other way to reduce cost except closing most stores to offset the low margins of SR. Luckily after Tesla opened the order page, most people chose SR+, so Elon tried to walk...
  45. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I had a feeling that if Tesla got a new big strategic investor (very deep pocket, long-term commitment, even better if bring synergies...), even with dilutions, the SP will be much higher, much stable than now. I think when Elon said on the call there's some merit to the cap raise idea, he...
  46. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I understand most bulls are extremely disapponted at Q1 results, me too. But looking at the bright side, sentiments will improve next week when April sales figures are reported by InsideEV and others around May 1-3. The CFO Zachary already said on the call it will be a all-time record 1st month...
  47. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree. I think the China Customs clearance delays caused it, but the Wave is the root cause as explained on the call. Glad that they will take short term pain in Q2 to unwind the wave.
  48. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From the call "Zachary Kirkhorn: Yes, this is Zach. I mean, what we saw on February 28 when we launched the standard range, the standard range class variances, is that there’s pent-up demand for those products that released very quickly after it was announced. And then as more time has passed...
  49. PANN

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From Q1 letter "As a result of the pricing actions, we adjusted our sales return reserve for cars sold with a Resale Value Guarantee or Buy Back Guarantee. This one-time adjustment had a negative revenue impact of $501 million with a corresponding decrease in automotive cost of goods sold impact...