Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
After watching CBS news, just more weather stories then the Colorado Semi truck deadly crash which can be prevented with Tesla in our world. And with the Emission scams... I"m not feeling too hopeful about Earth's outcome. That's a short gone really bad, and the Tesla story (and pending movie franchise) is just a symptom.

Bernie or Joe?
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
So what are the next major catalysts?

Q2 deliveries
Q2 earnings
Q3 deliveries
Q3 earnings
China GF update
Model Y update

I think the SEC will be a non-event at this point since it seems pretty certain to be fines and/or more mechanistic oversight.

Anything else?

Not that I expect it to be a catalyst per se, but the annual shareholder meeting should be before all of those if its the same date as last year.
 
This has finally reached my breaking point. I have liquidated substantial (for me) safe, income yielding assets in order to buy more TSLA. I really do not expect any major gains for some time, but this is a ridiculous situation.

FWIW, any serious investor should IMHO examine some TSLA accounting policies and business policy changes:
First, they recognize income for any product sale only when title is executed and payment has been received.

Second, they are VERY conservative in treatment of residual values/resale guarantees (quick calculations on those two should be done by investors who just might figure out they're recognizing value loss in this quarter on all vehicles subject to those agreements even though actual incidence of loss, if any, would apply to much less than 50% of vehicles due to numerous exceptions).

Third, actual ASP's and further market expansion to places where there are pre-existing order backlogs for Model 3 strongly suggest there is no demand problem.
Fourth, China and GF-3 are clearly and obviously ahead of schedule.

Fifth, continuing battery shortages mean there is still much more opportunity for better GM's on storage and cars.

Sixth, if Elon has made one thing abundantly clear it is that he fully intends to reduce EOQ rush, improve customer service and further improve vehicle/battery longevity while reducing maintenance/repair.

Lastly, just look at the GM's. How is it possible to complain about those? Obviously, foolish people and professional cynics can do so, but nobody who knows the auto industry can imagine TSLA GM's to anything other than highly bullish, even in a disastrous quarter.

So, FUD or no, I am once again increasing my TSLA holdings. Luckily for me my average cost is still in the green even though I kept buying small amounts even above $350. I do not regret it, but I am a very long term investor so I don't expect to do too much timing...except now, again.

Even though you are right, I still never add to a losing position.
Because the mkt can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skybluecgreen
There are no sales without buyers...

I think we all know he meant there is not enough buyers to sustain the price level. Although painful for me too, there is no point shooting the messenger. Plus it's probably better to ask ourselves what if the price drops below 200?

Currently I ask myself can Tesla survive the next 5 years and rollout Semi without bankruptcy? My answer to myself is very very very likely.

If that is the case then they can unlock a ton of profit from their self driving tech. Because it is also very likely they can achieve real full self driving on stretches of highways by that time, which is a whole lot easier than robotaxi in NYC. Even if they only do it in rural areas, let the driver navigate heavy traffic near cities, and go to sleep when the truck traveling through corn fields. That a ton of profit with virtually no cost.

Why I am not selling if I think it would drop below 200? I remember I lost a lot of money selling into 2008 crisis.
 
Bought some this morning and more at $234.x just now. If we get anywhere close to $200, will be rolling our QCOM, ADBE, DHR and DIS holdings into Tesla as well. Will get even more aggressive below 200.
I have never been so excited to be a part of disruption that will influence humanity for generations to come. Even if we fail in our mission, I will at least be able to say I did my part. Go Tesla!
 
people selling right now must be those who are margin called out (i was stupidly margined on 2 minor positions this week). I cannot understand the sanity of anybody having held shares for the last few months, seeing the progress on model 3, model Y and now FSD updates.. and china GF... and thinking now would be a good time to SELL?
Its herd mentality.
Some very patient rich folks are going to scoop up these shares at a bargain.

also... my god elon was right. This would be SO much easier to run if private.
There are many longs throwing the towel. Not surprising given even SP500 lost half in 2008 when the news were bad.

I think it will go lower. I am not selling because last time I missed the recovery of sp500
 
Only 30 times?!? I’m jealous. I worked for Tesla from 2012-2019 and the early years (in particular) were rife with talks of bankruptcy and vaporware. I can’t even begin to express my bewilderment at the fact that people would go out of their way just to express some misplaced discontentment about how Tesla’s existence would directly impact their livelihood. I literally had a gentlemen once tell me that he prefers the smell of gasoline. This was alluded to earlier but it really does feel as if we are fighting an ideological battle and, unfortunately, the reptilian brain can be a hard beast to conquer.

Yup. Just last week I said "I love the smell of outboard motor fumes" (especially when I'm floating). At that moment, it really messed with my brain. Like a Scrat clinging to an acorn, money has similar smell-hooks built in.
 
There are many longs throwing the towel. Not surprising given even SP500 lost half in 2008 when the news were bad.

I think it will go lower. I am not selling because last time I missed the recovery of sp500

I remember buying bank stocks at the time. Always wondered if other buyers were masochists or not.

Just when you think it can't get worst, the worst happens. And it happens in threes.

Causa's razor says sec will settle after the short overlord are done covering. Watch it be just after we hit bottom and is already on the way back up.
 
Two thing on surface:
1.robinhood crowd is buying this dip like never before
2. short volume is at peak too, using bad Q1 to press it below any reasonable levels

I suggest, this bearish raid is trying to achieve some kind of retail stop-loss avalanche

To me, this is an amazing setup, tons of energy on both sides. Whoever gives up first, we will see an incredible sickening flight.

Didn't think we would see this price for a while. I love when there is fear driving things like this. The long term rational case I built in a prior post is all true. TSLA has a huge moat playing to the for sure future of e-transportation, energy storage, ride sharing, etc.

This is where people make their bets. Either you believe in where things are headed or not. "When there is blood on the streets..." GLTAL
 
3 friends with net worth over $50 billion (Larry Page*, Sergei, Larry Ellison)

a few single digit billionaire friends (Branson, Jeffrey Skoll, perhaps more)

of course, net worth is not same as liquid assets

then there is China... both the government itself and various companies/tech billionaires. while friend may not be quite the term to use, they have strong determination to see Tesla’s mission succeed (and, I think, it’s fair to say Elon is more appreciated by the government in China than in the US).

I look at this more as a potential cap raise group at this point, but, yes, if needed, potentially take private part 2.

*Worth noting that a few years back, Page publicly mused that if he were to be hit by a bus, leaving his money to Elon might be better than leaving it to charities given that with Elon the money would go to doing so many things Page believes in.
Can we stop dreaming about some Prince charming on his noble steed coming to the rescue?