Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

OK got permission from the poster to repost their post. To me this is a very elegant way to explain how some people, including analysts, don't see the full FSD trends or vehicle sales trends. In part it's like the zoom in your scientific calculator. Zoom in too much and it looks like a flat curve. Zoom out enough and you can see the exponential. Here's their post from Teslarati.
blackbean Change • 3 hours ago


Yep. And what people forget is that after Tesla parted ways with Mobileye in 2016 they had to virtually start from scratch. They go to where they are now in just over 24 months and most of the AI learning has only occurred in the last 3 months. People are clueless as to how fast this is changing. Stuff doesn't work until it does.

Consider the case where scientist finds an invasive plant species on a lake. The monitor it for a few years and calculate that the plant is doubling it's size every year. By their calculation the lake will be totally covered by the plant in 30 years. Guess what. After 25 years, only about 3.15% of the lake is covered. At that point people will tell you how wrong the scientists were. For 25 years hardly anything has happened, why would it change in 5 years? In 4 more years the lake would be 50% covered and 1 more year it's totally covered.

That is why the analysts and specialists always miss this stuff. Look at solar. For 40 years nothing happened and then it started taking of around 2010. By the end of last year there already were over half a terrawatt of solar generating capacity globally. In 2010 it was less than 40 GW. In 2000 there was only 1.25 GW solar generating capacity globally. In 1970 it cost almost $100 to build 1 watt of solar generating capacity.

FSD won't be perfect next year, but it will work (with some nuance) and be much safer than a human driver. Once the dam wall of regulatory approval breaks, ICE cars sales will fall by hundreds of thousands per year in the US and quickly accelerate to a million and more.

Yes, but can we trust the Chinese?
OK maybe I'll give them more time since they didn't specify a date. They nailed the "surprise" part!
Wouldn't their clean mission be tied to Tesla's success?

 

[Maitri982]

Is it just me or is it kind of odd that when the stock is pushed to near record lows people that almost never post feel the need to suddenly tell everyone why, and how much they sold?

I don't remember a rush of posts about how much people bought when it was $350, but again, maybe that's me.

I guess misery truly does love company...genuine or created.

Dan

This is what most retail traders do. They buy when things are high and there is "buzz", then they sell fast when the fear train rolls in. It's why most people have no business trading individual stocks. They suck at it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

the mailman drove by while on my walk and the stink made me think how perfect a little tesla version would be, autopiloting around neighborhoods with no pollution and a less-stressed driver/deliverer.

... driver?

 

[dburkland]

Tesla owner here who hasn't really invested in any company however I just bought my first shares at $234.99 as I believe in these guys long term.

 

[Remus]

Not to get off on another business for Tesla to get into but if they bought Boston Dynamics can’t they make RoboCop now? Seems like the NN they have made should be worth a lot of money to the defense industry. That’s actually the last place I want Tesla, but it seems all the parts are there.

Boston dynamics uses very little NN, most control logic hard coded. Hard to imagine, I know

 

[Boomer19]

Deadline has been extended to May 15th.

Seems like MXWL stockholders might want to withdraw their prior election pending a renewed offer if these TSLA prices persist.

If that begins to happen then others might be interested if for no other reason than to license the tech to TSLA.

when tender offers get extended, the main reason for w/d is that holders don’t want their shares locked up between extension date and new deadline, in case something happens in the market. more nimble with shares in hand.

 

[Curt Renz]

This is not the Technical Analysis thread. Take any and all discussion about long term support lines, trend channels, falling wedges and flying saucers to that thread.

Mod

Your addition of Flying Saucers appeared to make that a sarcastic editorial comment. I've found that technical analysis has validity in making trading decisions (especially at tops and bottoms), often more so than fundamental analysis. So should fundamental analysis also be excluded from this thread? Your suggestion might be a good one if members actually visited the TA thread.

McGraw-Hill had me write a book on technical analysis. You may want to read it to learn the reasons why technical analysis is frequently quite predictive.

 

[ZeApelido]

Saw a few more trucks full of Model 3s heading for San Francisco pier.

 

[humbaba]

Taking advice I've seen multiple times in this thread and treated myself to a ~20 minute joyride for lunch. A bit short, but lots of fun.

 

[Matias]

There’s only one guaranteed strategy in stock markets;

1) Buy a diversified portfolio
2) Hold
3) Wait

Everything else is just tossing coins.

 

[Remus]

OK got permission from the poster to repost their post. To me this is a very elegant way to explain how some people, including analysts, don't see the full FSD trends or vehicle sales trends. In part it's like the zoom in your scientific calculator. Zoom in too much and it looks like a flat curve. Zoom out enough and you can see the exponential. Here's their post from Teslarati.
blackbean Change • 3 hours ago


Yep. And what people forget is that after Tesla parted ways with Mobileye in 2016 they had to virtually start from scratch. They go to where they are now in just over 24 months and most of the AI learning has only occurred in the last 3 months. People are clueless as to how fast this is changing. Stuff doesn't work until it does.

Consider the case where scientist finds an invasive plant species on a lake. The monitor it for a few years and calculate that the plant is doubling it's size every year. By their calculation the lake will be totally covered by the plant in 30 years. Guess what. After 25 years, only about 3.15% of the lake is covered. At that point people will tell you how wrong the scientists were. For 25 years hardly anything has happened, why would it change in 5 years? In 4 more years the lake would be 50% covered and 1 more year it's totally covered.

That is why the analysts and specialists always miss this stuff. Look at solar. For 40 years nothing happened and then it started taking of around 2010. By the end of last year there already were over half a terrawatt of solar generating capacity globally. In 2010 it was less than 40 GW. In 2000 there was only 1.25 GW solar generating capacity globally. In 1970 it cost almost $100 to build 1 watt of solar generating capacity.

FSD won't be perfect next year, but it will work (with some nuance) and be much safer than a human driver. Once the dam wall of regulatory approval breaks, ICE cars sales will fall by hundreds of thousands per year in the US and quickly accelerate to a million and more.

Again chasing the 9s is exponential too so I don't believe they will solve that in the trajectory you described.

But let's get FSD on highways to make some money from shipping companies.

 

[Runarbt]

This is a huge buying opportunity. Just so sad I dont have any cash at hand.
Sold 10% of my holdings at 340 as I had to pay some plumber bills.. and felt bad about it then. Just wish I had cash to buy back those 30 shares now.

I am long, very long since SP at $32.. was messing around with options the past 3 years.. didnt work out in the end. So back to core stock holding only.. but these price levels are crazy imho. Might consider options again, but those are hard to get correct. ;-)

Not selling. I know in my guts Elon & co will nail the FSD eventually... and then its time for the new crazy - like back when SP soared from 32 to 300+. Just crossing my fingers I have managed to get hold of enough cash to buy back the 10% I sold, or some options and I nail the option expirey dates (get lucky and hit FSD releasem, Elon time). :-D

 

[Dutchie]

I don't understand that story for capital raise. Aren't they just promoting that so they can trade more and have some more commissions? And capital raise, what for? Tesla ordered the equipment for Model Y manufacturing. They are prioritizing FSD and I don't think that is really capital intensive.

I wish I had cash on hand so I could buy more TSLA. I cannot comprehend: "What are we seeing that other people don't or what do other people see what we don't"
Everyone has seen the presentation on the Investor's day. I am super thrilled on the things I saw. What am I missing here?

 

[Remus]

I remember buying bank stocks at the time. Always wondered if other buyers were masochists or not.

Just when you think it can't get worst, the worst happens. And it happens in threes.

Causa's razor says sec will settle after the short overlord are done covering. Watch it be just after we hit bottom and is already on the way back up.

Nah, I think it will go lower and I am preparing myself to see 150. If I can be mentally prepared for 100 then I guess I am golden.

 

[LCR1]

This is a huge buying opportunity. Just so sad I dont have any cash at hand.
Sold 10% of my holdings at 340 as I had to pay some plumber bills.. and felt bad about it then. Just wish I had cash to buy back those 30 shares now.

I am long, very long since SP at $32.. was messing around with options the past 3 years.. didnt work out in the end. So back to core stock holding only.. but these price levels are crazy imho. Might consider options again, but those are hard to get correct. ;-)

Not selling. I know in my guts Elon & co will nail the FSD eventually... and then its time for the new crazy - like back when SP soared from 32 to 300+. Just crossing my fingers I have managed to get hold of enough cash to buy back the 10% I sold, or some options and I nail the option expirey dates (get lucky and hit FSD releasem, Elon time). :-D

You know the market is going to do this so why not sell your $32 at 350 and buy again at a low?

 

[Mokuzai]

the annual shareholder meeting should be before all of those if its the same date as last year

Shareholder meeting is scheduled for Tuesday June 11th.

https://ir.tesla.com/node/19726/html

 

[AcesDealt]

I wish we could take a timeout and talk about more quantitative and financial modelling perspectives. Has this forum produced any post-results model? I would be more comfortable if I knew what it took exactly to stay cash flow positive. My investment thesis is basically just biding time for FSD to mature, so profits are essentially irrelevant in the meantime, but cash is necessary to avoid unfortunate compromises.

Sales volume has to go up dramatically to counter what will probably be descending model 3 per unit profitability, but it would be good to be more precise.

 

[brian45011]

Someone on Reddit found Tesla’s insurance paperwork.

New Tesla Insurance Program Filing in California 4,037 pages : RealTesla

It is a collaboration with State National insurance.

"State National provides capacity by offering broad licensing authority and national access to insurance products and markets so our clients can respond to market opportunities. Fronting is provided through State National Group, comprised of five insurance companies: State National Insurance Company, National Specialty Insurance Company, City National Insurance Company, United Specialty Insurance Company and Independent Specialty Insurance Company."
​

About Us - State National Companies

"Fronting has been defined as the use of a licensed, admitted insurer to issue an insurance policy on behalf of a self-insured organization or captive insurer without the intention of transferring any risk. The risk of loss is retained by the self-insured or captive insurer through an indemnity or reinsurance agreement. However, the fronting company (insurer) would be required to honor the obligations imposed by the policy if the self-insurer or captive failed to indemnify it. Therefore, the fronting company is subject to credit risk as a result of the arrangement, and fronting companies charge a fee for this service."​

What Is a Fronting Arrangement, and Why Do Captive Insurers Use Them? | Captive.com

It would be nice if Tesla filed an 8k about what appears to be a material definitive agreement. The Exhibits to the 1Q19 10Q might include heavily redacted versions of the definitive agreements with both FCA and State National.

 

[VValleyEV]

There’s only one guaranteed strategy in stock markets;

1) Buy a diversified portfolio
2) Hold
3) Wait

Everything else is just tossing coins.

Add:
Re-balance at regular intervals to retain the same diversified mix, and change the mix slowly over the long-term, as your risk and return profile approaches my old fartdom territory.

 

[Boomer19]

Nah, I think it will go lower and I am preparing myself to see 150. If I can be mentally prepared for 100 then I guess I am golden.

150? really?
that’s harsh, but plausible i guess, if we get some other factors involved. nothing happens in a vacuum i guess. i’ll still sh!t myself if it goes that low. not gonna lie.