Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Wow! Great battle for $245. Held!

$244 was the real battle, the way it breaks must have scared someone.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I never supercharged yet when there weren't plenty of empty spaces.

I guess you've never lived in southern CA? San Diego is finally free of routine waits (at least for now), but Orange County and Los Angeles are still problem areas.

Ironically, I went to a newly opened hot new mall yesterday (One Paseo) and the only parking spots that were free in the whole parking structure were at the Supercharger! Thanks, Tesla!

 

[StealthP3D]

We'll talk routs when we're back comfortably above 350.

I wasn't all that comfortable with the share price over $350 last year, it seemed a little too cocky considering the major challenges ahead and the fact that it was looking more and more difficult to hit Tesla's early and overly optimistic production guidance. Also knowing the wall of misinformation and bad actors that Tesla is up against. But I would say this fairly qualifies as a rout, taking it from less than $180 to $245 in 5 weeks (and during a period when (it seemed to me) big money and dirty trading was doing its best to keep a lid on this kind of rally. The most recent movement looks like the first part of a break-out to around the 250's level where it will probably hang out until we get better visibility with the earnings and conference call.

I would look cautiously at irrational exuberance before earnings. If it climbs too high before earnings, I would be suspicious that it might be due to dirty traders buying up as much as they can so they have plenty of ammo to try to crash the price as soon as earnings are announced and create the impression that Wall Street is not impressed with Tesla's performance.

Lacking a big runup above the $250's going into earnings, I'm thinking earnings will be positive enough to cause a break to the upside again, probably to around the $280's, the exact amount depending upon how credible the increased production goals seem. Time will tell but this is getting fun again!

 

[Zaxxon]

I wasn't all that comfortable with the share price over $350 last year, it seemed a little too cocky considering the major challenges ahead and the fact that it was looking more and more difficult to hit Tesla's early and overly optimistic production guidance. Also knowing the wall of misinformation and bad actors that Tesla is up against. But I would say this fairly qualifies as a rout, taking it from less than $180 to $245 in 5 weeks (and during a period when (it seemed to me) big money and dirty trading was doing its best to keep a lid on this kind of rally. The most recent movement looks like the first part of a break-out to around the 250's level where it will probably hang out until we get better visibility with the earnings and conference call.

I mean, I get where you're coming from, but it's also gone from $245 to... $245 in two months. $345 to $245 in six months. There is no scenario in which what we've seen lately qualifies as a rout--the recovery back to $245 wasn't even as quick as the drop down from $245.

I do agree that $350 last year was a lot less comfortable than I'll feel when we next hit $350. The company is de-risking on a weekly basis, it seems. We're much closer to the Y entering production, Shanghai is actively installing production equipment, HW3 is shipping, S/X have received a notable refresh, the 3 has invaded Europe, etc.

 

[Jayjs20]

No smiles until 300.

No happy smiles until 350.

 

[Rammstein]

It’s possible that even though those people are very smart, they’re completely unaware of how victimized they’ve been by an unprecedentedly massive disinformation campaign. Over the last few years, I’ve actually started to doubt “expert” opinions in many areas, because of how wrong they’ve been on a subject like Tesla, where my knowledge exceeds theirs.

It’s good news for those in a position to accumulate, as it has been a wonderful fire sale on the stock.

It’s bad news for those who aren’t, and may even need to be withdrawing (for retirement or some other reason).

It’s horrible news, in that it does affect demand and Tesla’s pricing power.

Yeah I am very skeptical of those so called "experts" ever since I started following Tesla 5 years ago. My Dad watches Jim Kramer all the time and I was telling him that Jim is an idiot and doesn't know what he is talking about. Well it least when it comes to TSLA he is an idiot.

My friends were telling me they would invest in TSLA if Elon wasn't the CEO but since he is they won't invest. I was like wow the media is really good at getting it in your head that he should not be CEO. The company is where it is today because of him. Really struck me how effective the propaganda campaign really is. It makes me wonder what else am I being lied to about?

 

[kengchang]

I have some to sell for $2800.

Why not $4200?

Really great run since we hit $178.97 on Jun 3, 2019 couple weeks ago...

 

[Rammstein]

What are we going to talk about when the stock is ~$2,798 a share?

How I love my new roadster and yacht.

 

[Singuy]

Why not $4200?

Really great run since we hit $178.97 on Jun 3, 2019 couple weeks ago...

Had to convince some people not to short at 180(people who doesn't follow Tesla, they literally came and asked if they should short Tesla due to the price action and all the headlines).

I bet these are the same people who wonders if they should buy Tesla when sp is 4k. Trend followers, the biggest noobs in the investor scene.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What are we going to talk about when the stock is ~$2,798 a share?

I don't know bout you guys but this will be me:

 

[UncaNed]

No smiles until 300.

No happy smiles until 350.

And what do we get to do at $400??

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can Nasdaq data be corrected ? That is what I'd imagine happens once in a while - but Nasdaq website isn't updating corrections but others like Fidelity are.

Yeah, its these 'corrections' to the trades that keep me up at night analyzing data...

Wanna see some After-hrs highlights? I've seen overnight 'corrections' above 500K shares. They also seems highly correlated to days with a high proportion of 'non-FINRA' short-trading volume. FINRA usually reports only about 60% of total trading volume (chk @ 6PM), but it can vary substantially day-to-day.

But you suspect correctly. This reporting system is about as opaque a data hole as any North of Calcutta. While correlation can not prove inference, it can damn sure make you go 'hmm'.

Cheers!

P.S. In the Artillery Command Post, we had a standard report on the radio whenever we fired a round in error: "CANCEL SHOT. READY OVER". Just ignore that rumbling noise you hear behind you, it's NOTHING I tell you, nothing to see here, move along... umh, you still there?

...paging @DragonWatch he'll tell ya.

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is the second time in recent weeks that we "won" the puts/calls battle. Every dollar taken from shorts is sweet ;-)

 

[Jayjs20]

And what do we get to do at $400??

Two girls, or guys, at once.

 

[GBleck]

245 holding in after market... nice

 

[Artful Dodger]

My expected downside is that the Porsche will be very decontented for the base model and they will charge through the nose for options.

Yeah, Porsche 0-80% charging in 15min... and a Romulan Warbird will do Warp 10 if you aren't planning a trip home. And Porsche has already announced they plan to charge the same per mile for energy from their fast chargers as the cost of premium gasoline for their 'legacy' models.

Setting themselves up to fail, likely so they can say 'told ya so'. Tesla Roaster is necessary, since its only mission will be to disprove German Physiks. Only this time, the Americans have all the best rocket scientists...

 

[Driver Dave]

It is obvious and I don't understand how people don't see it. I'm in oil country and everyone around me thinks I'm nuts for investing in TSLA. Some of the smartest people I know are trying to talk me out of this investment. It's actually really weird for me.

I always see this too from friends.

I think if you don't own a Tesla, see what's happening, you just don't have a good view into the company.

Too much FUD, analysts making things up, click bait headlines about Elon's latest tweet.

But no real info about how great it is to own and drive these cars, and how once people start, they never go back.

TSLA long is obvious.

When you actually can see what's going on.

 

[M3Rider]

you may see traders picking up shares and calls in the final minutes, looking for a quick return from a first hour of Monday run up.

Btw, what makes you assume that the first hour of Monday will have a run up?

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Self-Driving Tesla Semi New Sighting on U.S 101 in California : teslamotors

 

[GBleck]

Btw, what makes you assume that the first hour of Monday will have a run up?

margin calls ¯\_(ツ)_/¯