Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Aeon]

It might make a difference that it is cold in Germany at the moment, 7 deg centigrade and both cars had cabin temperature set to 18 deg.

Nextmove is *not* a car magazine. It is a small rental company with a youtube channel that only rents pure EVs (actually pretty much everything that is on the market in Germany including Teslas). They don´t get money from ads. They did get the Taycan for this test from a Porsche dealer but that is it. IMHO they are as trustworthy as it gets.

Well, they (most likely) get considerable fleet (leasing) rebates on VAG vehicles but pay full price for Teslas like everybody else. So there is that.
Might at least have subconscious relevance.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Welcome to TMC.

Are you a day trader?

I am, yes. I'm also long TSLA. I tend not to trade stock I'm long on Intra-day but this last week was an exception.

 

[Hock1]

If naked short selling is common, why is this not the subject of a class action lawsuit? There has to be some sort of penalty for this behavior. The aggrieved party is anyone who has their shares eligible for borrowing. I would think naked shorts not only deny someone the cost of share rental, but also depress the borrowing price by reduced demand. Sue those who abuse the privilege. And maybe sue the SEC for not enforcing their rules.

Naked short-selling by those with market maker status is not illegal. Shorting on downticks is not illegal. What is illegal is using these actions for the purpose of manipulation. Makes it a lot harder to sue when the bar is to prove intent.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MM Peanuts?

Yeah, its Delta-hedgemageddon. Apocalyp-stub-ur-toe. Or Howler-monkey-melt-up.

Rather watch that 70s TV reboot, AJ and the Bear (now updated with Tesla Semi)

Cheers!

 

[gerebgraus]

Nothing will happen with it. The world will have a shortage of battery cells for quite some time to come.

Just like everyone was asking what would happen with the 18650 supply when Tesla started making 2170s. The answer to that was: nothing. It was extra supply. They used it to make extra vehicles.

That said, if the new cells are 2170 format and make for better vehicles, and they can get enough capacity to do so, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panasonic production get entirely moved over from automotive to Tesla Energy.

The issue is not the cell format. In case 2170 vs. 18650 the cost difference was probably a fraction of 1%. Here it is about ~50%. It makes no sense to produce that expensive cell for either cars or energy to protect sunk costs. Especially since the sunk costs lost their value as well, as the cost of a new plant is a fraction of Panasonic Giga. (again all if assume that the info in Tesmanian article is correct.)

 

[CyberDutchie]

Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.

With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:

"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."

...

"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."

"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
​

While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:

• Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
• Energy storage
• Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
• Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.

TSLA = $4,200 secured?

Articles like this one on Tesmanian with claims of sources familiar with the matter (leaks?) are no good IMO, could result in people canceling their orders to wait for the new battery tech to hit production.

Edit: see one of the comments to the article:

 

[KarenRei]

The issue is not the cell format. In case 2170 vs. 18650 the cost difference was probably a fraction of 1%. Here it is about ~50%. It makes no sense to produce that expensive cell for either cars or energy to protect sunk costs. Especially since the sunk costs lost their value as well, as the cost of a new plant is a fraction of Panasonic Giga. (again all if assume that the info in Tesmanian article is correct.)

The cell cost difference will not be 50%. You're talking about making cells for barely over the raw materials costs. That's not going to happen.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

OT
@SW2Fiddler
Why do you look like Kif Wyvernauff?
(Might be keef )

Whompy times call for whompy measures.

The cat stream will return according to cat agendas, I presume. Me just pawn in big game of life.

 

[lklundin]

The lead litigator of the SEC who was pushing those bull-sugar confrontations with Tesla left the SEC last year (to be corporate lawyer at a Koch Industries linked utility company - it's a small world! ), so maybe the current SEC administration has different views about short-and-distort campaigns and blatant violations of regulation SHO.

Also, President Trump said this about Elon Musk recently:

"You have to give [Elon Musk] credit," President Trump tells @JoeSquawk. "He's one of our great geniuses, and we have to protect our genius."​

Maybe the current SEC administration will take this as policy instruction and will start protecting Tesla investors - not just Tesla anti-investors?

Or, since there's an election at the end of this year, the next administration might investigate these incidents more thoroughly. I heard neither Sanders nor Warren has a particularly favorable opinion about current Wall Street excesses ...

Someone at the SEC has to make a determination of what complaints to investigate - and which ones not to.
Since a number of investors have complained about this week's TSLA SP manipulation, a FOIA request (see foia.gov) could shed light on exactly what the SEC did with complaints over this. I mention this because I can imagine the current state of affairs will not hold up well to daylight.

 

[gerebgraus]

The cell cost difference will not be 50%. You're talking about making cells for barely over the raw materials costs. That's not going to happen.

I am not talking about making cells for barely over raw material cost. "new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture." That means that the new battery will have at least 25% lower raw material costs.

 

[Silentk]

The problem with any light being shined on these manipulative practices is 1) Hardly anyone, who isn't using these practices, knows what is actually happening, particularly politicians. 2) The people who do understand, the manipulators, are not about to kill the golden goose. There are a few inconsequential people, like myself and several others on this board, and others elsewhere who do understand but don't have the entree to the right people. All we can do is continue to enlighten all who will listen. Sort of like spreading the word on Tesla: It's a complex story but eventually there will be a tipping point.

Maybe if it (the manipulation post) was a sticky post new visitors to TMC would see it; including many who are maybe not investors?

 

[Curt Renz]

Maybe if it (the manipulation post) was a sticky post new visitors to TMC would see it; including many who are maybe not investors?

OK, here's the manipulation video for new TMC members and visitors.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - yesterday: Coronavirus: Tesla Giga Shanghai reopening on Feb 10, Shanghai gov offers help - Electrek

 

[Silentk]

www.Telegraph.co.uk homepage today:

 

[dc_h]

Take me to school on something regarding Tesla production. Does the factory produce cars for multiple markets at the same time or is it limited to for example, European versions for awhile, then Canadian, then American, then British etc. It just seems “the wave” is ongoing. Very few cars available in North America now as they build for Europe, very few cars available in Europe because they haven’t arrived yet etc. Just wondering if this timing has the making of a “tough” first quarter as Elon predicted. I would imagine the German factory will help this a lot as should the Chinese factory.

Thoughts. ???

Good question. I expect Model 3 is being built for different markets simultaneously on different lines. Model SX don’t have that option, so they probably build for markets in batches. Who knows how many lines are building the Y. I would expect at least 2 lines, but possibly only one line while they work out the kinks. Cash strength is really taking the pressure off of the Y rollout.

 

[Kuhz]

Electrek - yesterday: Coronavirus: Tesla Giga Shanghai reopening on Feb 10, Shanghai gov offers help - Electrek

So did it open?

 

[Mich]

So did it open?

it's 4:55 AM in Shanghai. I guess we need to wait a couple of hours.

 

[PeterJA]

..."From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture....

Several folks here have interpreted this quote to mean the total cost of the new batteries will be several times cheaper.

The quote might mean that, but more likely it means the manufacturing cost, not including raw-material cost, will be several times cheaper. If the latter, then the new batteries will be cheaper, but not several times cheaper, because the raw-material part of the total cost will not drop that much.

I mention this so we don't get our expectations too high.

 

[rsm287]

The issue is not the cell format. In case 2170 vs. 18650 the cost difference was probably a fraction of 1%. Here it is about ~50%. It makes no sense to produce that expensive cell for either cars or energy to protect sunk costs. Especially since the sunk costs lost their value as well, as the cost of a new plant is a fraction of Panasonic Giga. (again all if assume that the info in Tesmanian article is correct.)

It makes sense to keep producing the expensive cells until such time as the supply of cells can catch up with the demand. It depends how quickly they can ramp up production of the new cells.

 

[j0hn]

Things are moving along in Berlin