Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Controlled testing vs. random anecdotes? Yeah, I'll go with controlled testing.

I've also seen anecdotes that it's even worse than the EPA numbers. But that's also worthless.



It's not about the transmission. It's that its rolling drag and constant losses are terrible, but its aero isn't as bad. So the scaleup curve for if you're driving at, say, 150kph, it converges towards (but does not meet) more efficient vehicles.

Meanwhile, in the real world, only a tiny percentage of global drivers do most of their driving at 150kph.



Snicker. You mean this guy?

"After completing a quarter of that route, in Calgary, his Taycan decided it would no longer accept fast charging. ... Believing it was an issue with the Level 3 charger he tried first, Louv drove his Taycan to a BMW dealership in Calgary that also had fast charging. It did not work. So he decided to reach the Porsche dealership in that city, although he risked not getting there. In the end, he managed to, even if with only 2 percent of charge left. ... No problem was found with the car. It was the charging stations. My bad luck for having hit three in a row that failed. "

That's "doing okay"?



So you can drive around between broken chargers in a car that guzzles kWh while simultaneously paying ridiculous rates for charging? What a deal! But then again...



If the "closest competitor to Tesla" costs $150k unoptioned, $250k fully optioned, somehow I think Tesla will survive

I can tell you never been to Texas.

 

[FreqFlyer]

rather off-putting that every weekend porsche reps try to peddle their overpriced products in a tesla investment thread. I guess they figure most people here can afford them, so might as well give it a shot. Still, pretty desperate.

Hmmm, you must be ignorant to the fact that many Porsche owners also own Teslas. But go ahead and disparage them too.

 

[EV forever]

No, with @KarenRei's spreads the written higher price call is protected by the lower price lower leg call, so they are self-covered (no need for shares or cash backing), and capital requirements are basically the worst-case loss times the number of calls.

So for example, if you buy a $1,000 strike 2021/01/15 for $110 and sell a $1,200 strike (same expiry) for $75 to create a leveraged bullish spread, then the worst-case loss is the difference between the two premiums: $65 × 100 = $6,500 if TSLA closes below $1,200 on 2021/01/15.

With $160k of capital you can buy 24 such contracts.

With narrower spreads - for example a $1,100 upper leg for $90 your worst-case loss is $20, and your $160k cash will finance up to 80 such spreads, without using margin.

Note that if you start trading call spreads it's highly recommended you look up buy limit and sell limit orders and post your buy and sell orders at around the mid-price, the bid-ask price-spreads are rather substantial for the 2021 expiries that Karen is using, and will eat up a lot of the gains if you just buy/sell naively.

It's also recommended to put your limit orders in well in advance and wait for the market come to you, with occasional adjustments as new events come in and the price develops, i.e. do not try to react to price spikes (there's exceptions though) - you are just not fast enough for that and it's also stressful and emotional.

Another warning: on most retail trading platforms it's dreadfully easy to accidentally write naked puts or naked calls. You might want to ask your broker whether that can be enforced, i.e. let your account be downgraded to not allow naked options at all - only covered options and spreads. Not having margin enabled (i.e. a cash-only options trading account) is a solution.

If not then try to find some procedure that keeps you safe, for example by always double checking the balance of your spreads - and also be careful about always starting with the lower leg: if you write the upper leg first you will for a short amount of time own a naked call. If some huge event comes in or should you lose Internet connectivity at just the wrong moment and the price crashes, your losses with a naked call are almost unlimited. I.e. think through the consequences and try to be worst-case transaction-safe in multi-options strategies.

Same applies to closing and rolling a spread: always have at least as many long calls as short calls. No exceptions allowed: if you are trading in a personal retail account then your brokerage agreement makes you liable for any trading losses without limits, including all your personal and joint wealth, including your car, your home, all other bank accounts and more. Brokerages routinely go after retail clients that blew out with huge negative account balances, if the client doesn't pay they will sue and win, and if the client still doesn't pay the debt is sold to a debt collection agency.

Many platforms will allow you to safely enter into and exit from spreads, but rolling them as @KarenRei does is usually manual work.

Not advice and double check my calculations!

Two words: call spreads

I own 33 strikes starting at $1080. I've sold strikes (originally, 32) starting at $1500. I'm exploiting the volatility to move the upper ends higher while the stock is moving sideways.

I also have several hundred shares of stock, but I don't use that to cover calls. It is however put hedged out to June as an insurance policy.

Bingo. I just set them and let them come to me, which ensures that I get the best buy possible. I don't try to time tops or bottoms at all; if the stock keeps on going, then hey, it's approaching my next buy/sell point.

The only exception is in mornings after big overnight movements. I usually cancel buys / sells that are likely to execute immediately at opening at a poor price and try to reestablish them immediately at open at more reasonable prices. Unfortunately, sometimes the price at open moves like a rocket and you miss out :Þ But, missing out isn't the end of the world - it's just a case of "wait for the next swing".



Indeed. IMHO, it's not much of a risk when doing what I'm doing currently, since I have fixed points for buying and selling (as soon as one buy executes, I reestablish the order as a sell on the other strike, and vice versa). It's more of a risk for rolling spreads when the stock gaps up on a crazy day, where it might be hard to keep track of everything you're buying and selling; I've had days where I've had to do dozens of orders. As a precaution, I usually maintain at least one more long leg than short legs - and I also have my stock which can cover sold calls as backup (even though that's not the plan).

I was following the discussion regarding call spreads between @Lycanthrope @KarenRei and @Fact Checking with a lot of interest. So question for them. I have spent the last few hours reading up on these and entering different option scenarios in the Fidelity P/L tool to try and understand these strategies for myself. Since I am now quite comfortable with simple call options, trying to learn more complex strategies for future. Unfortunately, my IRA account will not let me enter a call spread directly, so I have to enter it as two trades, one to buy the long call option and one to sell the short call option. Since these are not linked, I get an error message that this leaves me at risk of a a large negative position. It will however let me enter a 'Combo' strategy which is to buy a long call and sell a put.

Can you help explain the difference between call spreads and the combo strategy (looking through fidelity options guides/info it appears combo is also called bullish split-strike synthetic)? From what I can see, the main differences are

1) Max Risk - for the call spreads as described by @KarenRei and @Fact Checking , the max risk is limited to the option premium that is paid, while for the combo strategy the max risk is substantial as the stock price can go to zero.

2) Max profit - in call spread the max profit is limited to the strike price of the short call option, while for the combo option strategy the max profit is unlimited

I worked out one possible trade scenario using the Combo Strategy - and one possible scenario using call spread

Combo Strategy scenario



Call spread scenario



In theory, I could do the combo strategy for $1065; if the stock goes up in price, the profit potential is unlimited, but risk is quite large if stock goes down. Worst case scenario, TSLA goes to 0, I would lose 60,000. But if stock did start going down, I could cut my losses by buying back the put I sold, correct? If I followed this strategy, is there a way to roll this over if stock moves up slowly? Say for e.g. the SP goes to $1000 in June this year, would you roll these further or just hold?

With the call spread scenario, I have the same question. If the SP drops, at what point would you consider cutting your losses with these? If it rises, at what point would you consider rolling it up further?

Sorry, didn't mean to make it such a long and complicated sounding post. But I have to work these numbers out for myself, that's the only way I can learn.

 

[Causalien]

Nah this was some tremendous b.s. and I'm pretty sure lawyers will enjoy conducting a smackdown of this case. The opps completely overplayed their hand

I think we are being targeted. Coincidence that someone just jumped in front of my car trying to insurance scam me as well.

And no, I am not in Russia.

 

[JBRR]

Marques Brownlee on Twitter

MKHBD did an interview with Bill Gates. Gates bought a Porsche Taycan and now lecturing about EV's and range anxiety...

 

[avoigt]

The fact that they cut down such a large area of trees in 1 day is encouraging. It means Tesla still has some time to spare before the deadline and that the delay in court does not necessarily mean they will run out of time. If they get the green light in one week time they would probably still be able to finish in time.

In the courts justification it was said that the works could have if they did not stop it been finished within 3 days. I never thought it to be possible that quickly but 29 harvesters can be obvious, just looking at the video what they cleared so far, be pretty quick. Thats very much encouraging and gives a lot of space to finalize works until end of February when the breeding season starts and trees can't be cut.

Many believe in Germany you cannot built anything fast which is simply wrong. The issue larger projects had are objections and many court cases that stopped works as well as endless changes of specs during the building phase, mainly BTW from politicians sitting in the decision board having no clue that you better not change the layout when 50% is already finished. Other sometimes technical issues played a role too as well as security related rules. All of that reasons would if Tesla did a proper plan which I expect they did not lengthen the process to build GF4.

Legal objections and justified court cases are a standard process in Germany and make sense as they give people the chance to object where they can make a reasonable case for it. This are rules to protect nature as well as other rights but usually if there is not solid justifications should be brought down quickly. In complicated technical constructions like fo instance the new main underground central train station in Stuttgart technical clearance can be extremely tricky. Thats obviously an environment then where you cannot build anything fast.

Although there are smaller groups in Germany who are just against every sort of change and the Group who did the objection at the OVG is BTW also against Germany changing to sustainable energy and hearing that they should not have the word "Green" in their name but this are groups without influence and larger organizations like BUND are not against GF4.

Nobody heard from that NGO in Bavaria before even not me living nearby so its a no name making a lot of wind right now.

I expect this to be quickly be declined hopefully early next week for them to resume works.

The latest video from a local claims that 60% of the works have been finalized:

 

[2Pearls]

Hmmm, you must be ignorant to the fact that many Porsche owners also own Teslas. But go ahead and disparage them too.

Yes, I do find it interesting that we hate when people or so called short sellers bash Tesla but we are Ok to bash Porsche EV’s or any other EV that is not Tesla. I am the biggest Tesla/TSLA fan there is, but I also like actual driving and Track driving and own 3 Tesla’s and 3 Porsche’s and they are all excellent vehicles for what they are meant to do. Remember, when I bought my P90D (not even the P100D which was more when it was launched) or should I say, donated my money to Tesla back in mid 2016, that car was almost $150k. Now we are disparaging Porsche’s that are this much and more? Remember, just like Tesla, there will be economies of scale and pricing should come down. But what is different is that the Taycan definitely handles and has a much better interior look than the Tesla at this price range. Each car has its plus and minuses but please don’t knock it till you have driven it. Yes, I know, wait for the Plaid....and my money is waiting...it just is not here yet. Thanks.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

In the courts justification it was said that the works could have if they did not stop it been finished within 3 days. I never thought it to be possible that quickly but 29 harvesters can be obvious, just looking at the video what they cleared so far, be pretty quick. Thats very much encouraging and gives a lot of space to finalize works until end of February when the breeding season starts and trees can't be cut.

Many believe in Germany you cannot built anything fast which is simply wrong. The issue larger projects had are objections and many court cases that stopped works as well as endless changes of specs during the building phase, mainly BTW from politicians sitting in the decision board having no clue that you better not change the layout when 50% is already finished. Other sometimes technical issues played a role too as well as security related rules. All of that reasons would if Tesla did a proper plan which I expect they did not lengthen the process to build GF4.

Legal objections and justified court cases are a standard process in Germany and make sense as they give people the chance to object where they can make a reasonable case for it. This are rules to protect nature as well as other rights but usually if there is not solid justifications should be brought down quickly. In complicated technical constructions like fo instance the new main underground central train station in Stuttgart technical clearance can be extremely tricky. Thats obviously an environment then where you cannot build anything fast.

Although there are smaller groups in Germany who are just against every sort of change and the Group who did the objection at the OVG is BTW also against Germany changing to sustainable energy and hearing that they should not have the word "Green" in their name but this are groups without influence and larger organizations like BUND are not against GF4.

Nobody heard from that NGO in Bavaria before even not me living nearby so its a no name making a lot of wind right now.

I expect this to be quickly be declined hopefully early next week for them to resume works.

The latest video from a local claims that 60% of the works have been finalized:

I read somewhere (cannot find it anymore) that the end of February may not be the ultimate deadline for cutting the trees, but that it is possible to grant a two week extension. Can any of our other German members maybe confirm this?

 

[Evoforce]

Yes, I do find it interesting that we hate when people or so called short sellers bash Tesla but we are Ok to bash Porsche EV’s or any other EV that is not Tesla. I am the biggest Tesla/TSLA fan there is, but I also like actual driving and Track driving and own 3 Tesla’s and 3 Porsche’s and they are all excellent vehicles for what they are meant to do. Remember, when I bought my P90D (not even the P100D which was more when it was launched) or should I say, donated my money to Tesla back in mid 2016, that car was almost $150k. Now we are disparaging Porsche’s that are this much and more? Remember, just like Tesla, there will be economies of scale and pricing should come down. But what is different is that the Taycan definitely handles and has a much better interior look than the Tesla at this price range. Each car has its plus and minuses but please don’t knock it till you have driven it. Yes, I know, wait for the Plaid....and my money is waiting...it just is not here yet. Thanks.

The fact is that the electric Porsche does not measure up to the Tesla just as many other electric vehicles don't at this time either. Lump that in with the poor alternatives to Tesla charging infrastructure. We equally will point out the shortcomings of the other touted Tesla killers too. Many of us are disappointed and disgusted that the others don't measure up and appear to be dragging their feet. So, many of us do want real competition and so far there is none...

 

[avoigt]

I read somewhere (cannot find it anymore) that the end of February may not be the ultimate deadline for cutting the trees, but that it is possible to grant a two week extension. Can any of our other German members maybe confirm this?

Thats correct. In the case of public interest and the Brandenburg Government indicated it is the time could be extended until mid of March.

However, considering they did 60% of the works in a few days I am confident they can finalize the rest quickly if the objection is declined.

 

[avoigt]

The fact is that the electric Porsche does not measure up to the Tesla just as many other electric vehicles don't at this time either. Lump that in with the poor alternatives to Tesla charging infrastructure. We equally will point out the shortcomings of the other touted Tesla killers too. Many of us are disappointed and disgusted that the others don't measure up and appear to be dragging their feet. So, many of us do want real competition and so far there is none...

The list of positives about the Taycan is unfortunately short and the one with negatives is long and weights heavily but as always in life some may have a great use case for it and will buy it and love it. That makes it a niche product by definition though and my research concludes that the current production capacity is not only way lower than what they planned for but just about 2% of Model3 production which declares it as niche too.

 

[lklundin]

Watch how an elite panel of money managers and their moderator straightened out Cathie Wood on a day that TSLA closed at $190.63.

CNBC Fast Money - 2019 MAY 24:

Yes, I guess my trading reflects my high opinion of Cathie Wood...
- and to think one could get 50 shares of TSLA for just under 170€ a piece.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yes, I do find it interesting that we hate when people or so called short sellers bash Tesla but we are Ok to bash Porsche EV’s or any other EV that is not Tesla. I am the biggest Tesla/TSLA fan there is, but I also like actual driving and Track driving and own 3 Tesla’s and 3 Porsche’s and they are all excellent vehicles for what they are meant to do. Remember, when I bought my P90D (not even the P100D which was more when it was launched) or should I say, donated my money to Tesla back in mid 2016, that car was almost $150k. Now we are disparaging Porsche’s that are this much and more? Remember, just like Tesla, there will be economies of scale and pricing should come down. But what is different is that the Taycan definitely handles and has a much better interior look than the Tesla at this price range. Each car has its plus and minuses but please don’t knock it till you have driven it. Yes, I know, wait for the Plaid....and my money is waiting...it just is not here yet. Thanks.

You know what the problem is? The FUD got to us! For years we have been carpet bombed with media messages about this ‘Tesla killer’ E-Mission/Taycan, the car that would blow the Model S out of the water because it had a nice interior with voluptuous leather and lots of buttons and would be able to finish a fast lap on the track. And you know what? It worked! It made many of us start to dislike this car that was coming to kill Tesla.

And what made it worse is that the message was repeated over and over by all the shorters, trolls, haters and Anton Wahlmanns out there. Tesla would be killed, no, slaughtered.

So yeah, who can blame many Tesla fans for not having warm feelings for this car. And for holding it up to the high standards required of an aspiring ‘Tesla killer’.

 

[Fact Checking]

You know what the problem is? The FUD got to us! For years we have been carpet-bombed with media messages about this ‘Tesla killer’ E-Mission/Taycan, the car that would blow the Model S out of the water because it would have a nice interior with voluptuous leather and lots of buttons and it would be able to finish a fast lap on the track. And you know what? It worked! It made many of us start to hate this car that was coming to kill Tesla. And what made it worse is that the message was repeated over and over by all the shorters, trolls, haters and Anton Wahlmanns out there. Tesla would be killed, no, slaughtered. So yeah, who can blame Tesla fans for not always having warm feelings for this car.

The other thing is, I haven't really seen much "hate" here: what happened is that Porsche pushed a couple of misleading and ultimately false "studies" into the spotlight, to distract from the embarrassing EPA range of the Taycan.

In doing so they also compared against and attacked Tesla in the same breath, falsely arguing that Tesla doesn't have as much range advantage as the inconvenient EPA numbers suggest.

These false comparisons were posted here too, in a troll-post by a newly registered member who also combined it with Tesla-disparaging comments (that comment got moved elsewhere meanwhile), and TMC members such as @KarenRei are rightfully pushing back against this disinformation campaign that is trying to harm Tesla, by pointing out the true numbers and facts. The use of ridicule is justified in light of the "Big Lie" Porsche is trying to pull off about the Taycan's range.

Doing this isn't "hate", it's a defense of Tesla"s hard earned technological lead, and it's fully justified in light of Porsche's increased presence and targeted PR push on social media and traditional media, and their intentional targeting of Tesla.

While we should welcome all new EV entrants as a validation of Tesla's strategy and mission, lies, trolling and disinformation do not deserve our backing just because the Taycan is an EV. Volkswagen/Porsche PR is trying to bring their deceptive marketing tactics into the EV era, and that should not be welcome here at all.

 

[Tslynk67]

I hope not. But searching for GF4 Tesla probably was in contact with several possible locations. If one of those was very ready to go... Tough decisions.

But it will probably not come to that. The new court is still in Brandenburg (OVG Berlin Brandenburg court) so they should know the situation well enough.

I wonder how much of the protests are truly environmental, I suspect a lot of different vested interests would love to cause as much havoc as possible, likely for a very small investment too.

What I find odd though is that this land has been designated for industrial use for some time, surely all the permits to cut down the trees should have been done well in advance. Seems a bit of an own-goal by the Germans allowing this kind of disruption.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The other thing is, I haven't really seen much "hate" here: what happened is that Porsche pushed a couple of misleading and ultimately false "studies" into the spotlight, to distract from the embarrassing EPA range of the Taycan.

In doing so they also compared against and attacked Tesla in the same breath, falsely arguing that Tesla doesn't have as much range advantage as the inconvenient EPA numbers suggest.

These false comparisons were posted here too, in a troll-post by a newly registered member who also combined it with Tesla-disparaging comments (that comment got moved elsewhere meanwhile), and TMC members such as @KarenRei are rightfully pushing back against this disinformation campaign that is trying to harm Tesla, by pointing out the true numbers and facts. The use of ridicule is justified in light of the "Big Lie" Porsche is trying to pull off about the Taycan's range.

Doing this isn't "hate", it's a defense of Tesla"s hard earned technological lead, and it's fully justified in light of Porsche's increased presence and targeted PR push on social media and traditional media, and their intentional targeting of Tesla.

While we should welcome all new EV entrants as a validation of Tesla's strategy and mission, lies, trolling and disinformation do not deserve our backing just because the Taycan is an EV. Volkswagen/Porsche PR is trying to bring their deceptive marketing tactics into the EV era, and that should not be welcome here at all.

As you were typing this I had already changed ‘hate’ (too strong) to ‘dislike’.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[lklundin]

If GF4 schedule gets set back by months, I hope Tesla triggers Plan B and says “Thanks Germany for the weak-*** effort. Bye.”

This too was my first thought. This would however encourage all kinds of Tesla-opposers to try similar tactics where ever Tesla would try to grow. So the preferable solution is in my mind when Tesla manages to go forward with GF4 - with the support of the local government.

Luckily, Elon Musk has faced delaying tactics and opposition throughout his entire career, so I am sure he will get the best out of the situation.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I read somewhere (cannot find it anymore) that the end of February may not be the ultimate deadline for cutting the trees, but that it is possible to grant a two week extension. Can any of our other German members maybe confirm this?

If the intent is to build out a factory in record time, such as what transpired in Shanghai for GF3, every week counts. If the bureaucracy in Germany is at this state so early in the project, it does not bode well for the overall project schedule of G4. The World, and Germany, needs to advance to green technology now. Each lost week is critical. Looks like GF5 is spoken for. Unless other Countries want GF6 through GF10 built out in China, they better bring their A game.

EDIT. This land plot at G4 is not a forest. It is a tree farm. Having lived in Vancouver, Canada for many years the difference is clear.

 

[lklundin]

You’ll rarely find me defending the Taycan, but in all fairness, I’ve played the “musical stalls” game at superchargers plenty of times.

Most recently, a family member borrowed the car and had to stop at one, and was getting 23kW at the bottom of the battery. I saw that and suggested he move, and he did so, to get... 23kW at the new charger. After thinking it must be something with the car, I called Tesla and they suggested moving to *yet another* stall. That one finally went up to the expected 70kW(this was one of the “urban superchargers”, which also means none of the stalls are paired).

TLDR: this happens regardless of the charging network.

Currently, the navigation screen shows how many stalls at a given in-range supercharger are occupied (shown in red).

It would be a significant improvement if the screen could directly recommend which stall to drive to (when the navigation destination is a Supercharger). Even if multiple Teslas are headed to a given supercharger site, Tesla would know this and should be able to estimate the order in which these cars will arrive at the site. As cars finish charging - and disconnect - the recommendations should be redone, so the top recommendation is the one that is most likely to give the highest charging power.

Due to unforeseeable circumstances (such as ICE'ing), the navigation screen should probably show a list of the (e.g. three) best stalls to connect to.

In fact, I have to assume Tesla have developers working on this.