Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

In Germany the courts are quite independent, so what politicians may say is not likely to matter much. In that sense the re-filing at a higher court to protest the plantation harvesting so close to Tesla's deadline is a smart move. If the plantation is not gone by the end of the month, then no further logging can be done until much later in the year.

The courts in the US are also (supposed to be) completely independent. But the interpretation of the law is, by nature, necessarily somewhat subjective in all countries. And humans do the interpreting. The Judge cannot stop from being exposed to such comments and if they are from a respected leader, it's impossible for that to not have some effect. In the end it comes down to statutes and the presented facts but it can't hurt to have respected leaders and common sense on your side.

I hope this appeal is quickly disposed of because a company growing as quickly as Tesla is valued on its very ability to grow quickly. Anything that slows that down, even if not Tesla's fault, will impact the ability of the share price to appreciate quickly as well. It will also slow down the world's transition to sustainable transport (and, ironically, speed up global warming). These are either very dumb environmentalists or they are not environmentalists at all.

 

[MC3OZ]

I am not advocating that Tesla take over PG&E but it would not be as bad as you say. Obviously with someone as smart as the Elon Musk and getting back to first principles, a whole lot of things about how the utility operates especially software and decision-making could be improved with little input from the state.

most of the kinds of projects that musk want to start would pretty much be automatically greenlighted as they are solar and distributed. And the shutting down of bad power plants would probably be very easy even with the state intervening. But probably the biggest change would Be software and decision making, and a whole lot of deficiencies can be removed purely with software and very minor technologies. for example Tesla could turn off large amounts of car charging and home draw on demand with the right agreements.

I don’t think Elon has the time for this, but I think Tesla light and power would be a success.

I'm not sure how the market works in the US, it seems your utilities do transmission, generation and retail....

In Australia they are in theory 3 different things, I would not recommend our model, but it would be very easy for Tesla to set up here as a new Gentailer = Generation + Retail...

There is a problem with overhead power lines in residential areas, one solution maybe Boring co to building a factory to mass produce little Boring machines to underground power from substation to home..

I also think the grid should potentially be a series of connected micro-grids with HDVC links in between, and the substation generating the frequency for its segment..

So there is the technical side and the business side....IMO the technical side of grids at present is a broken business model, it would be foolhardy for Tesla to get involved in transmission based on that model unless they can find a way of making massive cost savings..

I'm unsure abut the future of the electrcity grid .... the whole approach needs a rethink... I it is better for Tesla to focus on problems,solutions and components, stay away from direct involvement transmission for now, but retail and generation are OK.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

Trees, Resultant Carbon Capture, Planting Densities and other such arcana not only are Out-Of-Bounds hereonafter, but any such violations will promulgate a status quo ante ALSO to the e-space presently occupied by many prior posts. The workings of the GF4 site are of course appropriate discussion.

~~~Vetinari~~~

 

[JustMe]

I, for one, find some of these tangential posts to be quite interesting. But the arguments about who said what are extremely tiresome to wade through. *nobody cares* Bless the moderator.

—> getting back on track. According to Troy Teslike on Twitter Based on Tesla’s production constraints and plans in the last quarterly report, Troy predicts that Tesla will discontinue the Model 3 SR+ to enable ramping the Model Y. I don’t see that happening since it would be quite a step away from their mission of selling an affordable mass market EV, among other considerations.

What are your thoughts?

 

[dgodfrey]

agree with all of the above and the fact you would have to be a real dum-dum to accept an overpriced Porsche Taycant with a 201 mi vs. your 300 mi + options with a Tesla ... you can save at least $ 50K get a better car and invest the $ 50 K and eventually pay for your Tesla

my Model S has 240 mi range and is perfect for commuting and regional trips ... have not attempted multi day trip yet but I could see this type of trip being unacceptable with only 240 mi range... hate to admit here but still flying for any trip over one day ....

Anyone posted this article yet? I wonder how much it's costing Porsche for these articles. As Mark Twain so eloquently stated, there's lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Nobody driving a EV measures a charge based on rate of charge, kwh per minute and all that BS (they may compare these measurements when discussing different charging stations). At the end of the day, what matters is, how long do I need to charge to get the miles I need. If I need 200 miles to make it to my destination, which car will charge 200 miles (from maybe 10 or 15%) the fastest? Why do they NEVER do these test on what matters - DISTANCE you can travel per minute of charging? Or how many minutes to get x number of miles. If car a gets 100 miles of range and car b gets 1000, of course car b is going to reach 80% faster. But does that mean a damn thing?

Its becuase they know damn well it would be horrible for Porsche and that would defeat the purpose of the article. And the BS works. I just had a neighbor point me to that article and tell me Porsche is eating Tesla's lunch in battery technology. I explained it to him in practical terms (ie, how many miles you get for those charges Car and Driver did) and he said, "hmmm, I didn't think about it that way". And most people don't!

Porsche Taycan Can Charge Far More Quickly Than Tesla Model S

I can't defend the value proposition of the Taycan vs any Tesla but I can relay real world data that indeed seems to debunk the pitiful EPA range of the Taycan. There are a number of independent road tests that show the actual range of the Taycan to be better than the EPA numbers. Much better in fact than Tesla's as a percentage of actual compared to EPA estimates.

In Our Testing, Porsche Taycan Range Nearly Equaled Tesla Model S

Furthermore, if the above testing is legit, the highway efficiency of the Taycan may even be a little better than the Model S they tested. What makes this newsworthy is even though it's a cherry picked testing parameter which favors the Porsche's strength being high speeds utilizing the 2 speed transmission, it's a typical example of where range actually matters. That being 75 mph for hours at a time. That type of driving is common when road tripping and charging away from home. If the Taycan proves inefficient for around town in stop and go traffic but in those conditions, rarely exceed 200 miles in a day, does it really matter?
This by no means excuses how inept the Taycan may in fact be for road tripping due mainly to the fast charging network shortcomings for non-Tesla's, however, there's a guy doing a coast to coast to coast trip in a Taycan and as far as I know, he's doing okay.

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

The build-out of the 350kW Electrify America chargers is coming along and I think we're going to see comparable miles/minute for road tripping in the Taycan. It's really the closest competitor to Tesla so far and it deserves to be taken seriously.

 

[KarenRei]

I, for one, find some of these tangential posts to be quite interesting. But the arguments about who said what are extremely tiresome to wade through. *nobody cares* Bless the moderator.

—> getting back on track. According to Troy Teslike on Twitter Based on Tesla’s production constraints and plans in the last quarterly report, Troy predicts that Tesla will discontinue the Model 3 SR+ to enable ramping the Model Y. I don’t see that happening since it would be quite a step away from their mission of selling an affordable mass market EV, among other considerations.

What are your thoughts?

My thoughts are that Troy is usually wrong, so that's a good sign for the SR+

 

[keydiver]

According to Troy Teslike on Twitter Based on Tesla’s production constraints and plans in the last quarterly report, Troy predicts that Tesla will discontinue the Model 3 SR+ to enable ramping the Model Y.

Yes, I'm going to have to disagree with Troy. Not only would Tesla catch a TON of flak for abandoning their mission, but the SR+ with 250 mile range is, IMHO, the best value for most customers in a lot of countries outside the US. When I see how many i3's, Leafs, and Zoes are sold in Europe, I have to think that 250 mile range is more than sufficient. There are even times that I think I should have saved the $7000+ and got an SR+ instead of the LR AWD for my wife. She REALLY doesn't need a car that can do 0-60 in 4 seconds, or a 1/4 mile in the low 12's. We drive it in chill mode all the time.

 

[KarenRei]

I can't defend the value proposition of the Taycan vs any Tesla but I can relay real world data that indeed seems to debunk the pitiful EPA range of the Taycan. There are a number of independent road tests that show the actual range of the Taycan to be better than the EPA numbers.

Controlled testing vs. random anecdotes? Yeah, I'll go with controlled testing.

I've also seen anecdotes that it's even worse than the EPA numbers. But that's also worthless.

Porsche's strength being high speeds utilizing the 2 speed transmission

It's not about the transmission. It's that its rolling drag and constant losses are terrible, but its aero isn't as bad. So the scaleup curve for if you're driving at, say, 150kph, it converges towards (but does not meet) more efficient vehicles.

Meanwhile, in the real world, only a tiny percentage of global drivers do most of their driving at 150kph.

however, there's a guy doing a coast to coast to coast trip in a Taycan and as far as I know, he's doing okay.

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

Snicker. You mean this guy?

"After completing a quarter of that route, in Calgary, his Taycan decided it would no longer accept fast charging. ... Believing it was an issue with the Level 3 charger he tried first, Louv drove his Taycan to a BMW dealership in Calgary that also had fast charging. It did not work. So he decided to reach the Porsche dealership in that city, although he risked not getting there. In the end, he managed to, even if with only 2 percent of charge left. ... No problem was found with the car. It was the charging stations. My bad luck for having hit three in a row that failed. "

That's "doing okay"?

The build-out of the 350kW Electrify America chargers is coming along

So you can drive around between broken chargers in a car that guzzles kWh while simultaneously paying ridiculous rates for charging? What a deal! But then again...

closest competitor to Tesla

If the "closest competitor to Tesla" costs $150k unoptioned, $250k fully optioned, somehow I think Tesla will survive

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I think the meme is that if you try to depend on non-Tesla public charging stations, expect 60% of them to be broken or not functioning at any given moment. The absolute state of most of these charging networks is terrifying and most people don't realize it because there just aren't very many non-Tesla electric cars out there.

 

[KarenRei]

I can't defend the value proposition of the Taycan vs any Tesla but I can relay real world data that indeed seems to debunk the pitiful EPA range of the Taycan. There are a number of independent road tests that show the actual range of the Taycan to be better than the EPA numbers. Much better in fact than Tesla's as a percentage of actual compared to EPA estimates.

In Our Testing, Porsche Taycan Range Nearly Equaled Tesla Model S

Furthermore, if the above testing is legit, the highway efficiency of the Taycan may even be a little better than the Model S they tested. What makes this newsworthy is even though it's a cherry picked testing parameter which favors the Porsche's strength being high speeds utilizing the 2 speed transmission, it's a typical example of where range actually matters. That being 75 mph for hours at a time. That type of driving is common when road tripping and charging away from home. If the Taycan proves inefficient for around town in stop and go traffic but in those conditions, rarely exceed 200 miles in a day, does it really matter?
This by no means excuses how inept the Taycan may in fact be for road tripping due mainly to the fast charging network shortcomings for non-Tesla's, however, there's a guy doing a coast to coast to coast trip in a Taycan and as far as I know, he's doing okay.

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

The build-out of the 350kW Electrify America chargers is coming along and I think we're going to see comparable miles/minute for road tripping in the Taycan. It's really the closest competitor to Tesla so far and it deserves to be taken seriously.

For fun, I decided to dig through that thread. And all I can say is, LOL:

451 Wh/mi average. 280 Wh/km. At an average speed of 26 mph / 42 kph.

This is comical. What exactly where you saying about its energy consumption not actually being that bad in the real world? That works out to, what, 185 miles range? Average at 26mph?

You seem to be in the market for Taycan range/consumption anecdotes, so be sure to jot this one down

 

[JustMe]

For fun, I decided to dig through that thread. And all I can say is, LOL:

451 Wh/mi average. 280 Wh/km. At an average speed of 26 mph / 42 kph.

This is comical. What exactly where you saying about its energy consumption not actually being that bad in the real world? That works out to, what, 185 miles range? Average at 26mph?

You seem to be in the market for Taycan range/consumption anecdotes, so be sure to jot this one down

Maybe they were towing a load of stolen copper.

 

[dgodfrey]

Controlled testing vs. random anecdotes? Yeah, I'll go with controlled testing.

I've also seen anecdotes that it's even worse than the EPA numbers. But that's also worthless.



It's not about the transmission. It's that its rolling drag and constant losses are terrible, but its aero isn't as bad. So the scaleup curve for if you're driving at, say, 150kph, it converges towards (but does not meet) more efficient vehicles.

Meanwhile, in the real world, only a tiny percentage of global drivers do most of their driving at 150kph.



Snicker. You mean this guy?

If it's drag and losses are so terrible, then how did it match the Model S's efficiency on the closed track scenario? We know it has a smaller battery capacity and even smaller usable capacity but it managed an extrapolated 209 miles for the Taycan and 222 for the Tesla. You may disagree with the testing only using half the battery but that's all we have to go on.

I have no idea what your point is about the 150kph comparison is. The test was run at 75 mph which is fairly typical for road trips.

Yes, that's the guy and the photo you posted is irrelevant to my point. The car's charging speed was gimped from a handful of public chargers that remains a mystery why. However, it doesn't appear to be an issue with the cars battery, charging electronics, or communications.

 

[dgodfrey]

For fun, I decided to dig through that thread. And all I can say is, LOL:

451 Wh/mi average. 280 Wh/km. At an average speed of 26 mph / 42 kph.

This is comical. What exactly where you saying about its energy consumption not actually being that bad in the real world? That works out to, what, 185 miles range? Average at 26mph?

You seem to be in the market for Taycan range/consumption anecdotes, so be sure to jot this one down

The average speed most likely was taking the charging time into account. You really aren't so naive to think he was averaging 26 mph on the trans-Canadian highway are you? Based on his logs, he was doing the speed limit at a minimum and remember too that the first leg is in Canada with temps well below 0 for a good portion.

 

[Singuy]

I can't defend the value proposition of the Taycan vs any Tesla but I can relay real world data that indeed seems to debunk the pitiful EPA range of the Taycan. There are a number of independent road tests that show the actual range of the Taycan to be better than the EPA numbers. Much better in fact than Tesla's as a percentage of actual compared to EPA estimates.

In Our Testing, Porsche Taycan Range Nearly Equaled Tesla Model S

Furthermore, if the above testing is legit, the highway efficiency of the Taycan may even be a little better than the Model S they tested. What makes this newsworthy is even though it's a cherry picked testing parameter which favors the Porsche's strength being high speeds utilizing the 2 speed transmission, it's a typical example of where range actually matters. That being 75 mph for hours at a time. That type of driving is common when road tripping and charging away from home. If the Taycan proves inefficient for around town in stop and go traffic but in those conditions, rarely exceed 200 miles in a day, does it really matter?
This by no means excuses how inept the Taycan may in fact be for road tripping due mainly to the fast charging network shortcomings for non-Tesla's, however, there's a guy doing a coast to coast to coast trip in a Taycan and as far as I know, he's doing okay.

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

The build-out of the 350kW Electrify America chargers is coming along and I think we're going to see comparable miles/minute for road tripping in the Taycan. It's really the closest competitor to Tesla so far and it deserves to be taken seriously.

It matters if Volkswagen group wants to sell cars. Their EPA numbers are blasted everywhere (like on the freaken window of every car on the lot), people will take it as fact and any kind of testing trying to debunk it doesn't matter. Volkswagen group out of ALL car manufacture knows this the best. These are the people who knows the EPA's testing procedure so well that they derived systems to actively cheat it. So all of a sudden the outrage on how unfairly their cars were treated by the EPA is laughable as if this is their first car sent to the EPA or something.

So yeah, engineers should optimize for EPA just like ever automaker in the world because they are in the business of selling cars. I really don't have to tell VWG out of all manufactures this because it's laughable that I am pointing it out.

 

[KarenRei]

If it's drag and losses are so terrible, then how did it match the Model S's efficiency on the closed track scenario?

Because it was a terrible test in uncontrolled circumstances? Funny how you're perfectly willing to throw Louv's 3826 miles of real-world range experience under the bus (your own reference!) and stick with a 100 mile "test track" because Louv's road trip doesn't fit the story you want to tell.

Any "test" that determines that the range of a Model S Performance at 75mph is 222 miles is garbage and should be immediately discarded. The same source also apparently says that the range of the Model 3 LR is... wait for it... 200 miles Not SR-. Not SR+. LR. And not LR Performance. Or even LR AWD. LR RWD.

For the record, auto-collected real-world data (ABRP) - not from tracks, but actual driving in random cars with random drivers in random conditions - is nearly 300 miles from the LR RWD at 75mph.

Their "test" yields figures that are 2/3rds of what you actually get. They're worthless.

Yes, that's the guy and the photo you posted is irrelevant to my point

The fact that his real-world energy conumption was god awful is irrelevant to your point?

The car's charging speed was gimped from a handful of public chargers that remains a mystery why. However, it doesn't appear to be an issue with the cars battery, charging electronics, or communications.

If you can't charge, does it really matter?

 

[KarenRei]

The average speed most likely was taking the charging time into account. You really aren't so naive to think he was averaging 26 mph on the trans-Canadian highway are you? Based on his logs, he was doing the speed limit at a minimum and remember too that the first leg is in Canada with temps well below 0 for a good portion.

Okay, call it highway speeds-only if you want. It's still terrible. And if it's averaging 26mph due to charging stops, he's spending a lot of time charging.

(And it's clear from reading the thread that he's not simply spending every waking moment doing highway driving regardless)

As for temperatures, he's driven in a wide range of temperatures over those >3k mi (for example, on the 6th, he was in Vancouver near the coast. Not that cold at all). The lowest consumption he's gotten on the entire trip was 349Wh/mi. That said, sure, Taycan probably suffers less from the cold, in the same way that if you were dragging an anchor behind you in a Model 3, it probably won't make that much of a difference between whether you're doing so at 30°C or -10°C.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Pure speculation. I think Tesla will eventually spin off the "energy" related divisions, including solar and energy storage, into a separate company ...

Great idea! And they can call it SolarCity! Um, wait a minute...

 

[svp6]

For fun, I decided to dig through that thread. And all I can say is, LOL:

451 Wh/mi average. 280 Wh/km. At an average speed of 26 mph / 42 kph.

This is comical. What exactly where you saying about its energy consumption not actually being that bad in the real world? That works out to, what, 185 miles range? Average at 26mph?

You seem to be in the market for Taycan range/consumption anecdotes, so be sure to jot this one down

 

[KarenRei]

Let's check up on how Louv is "doing okay":

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

"I usually drive 120-180 miles at a time. A total of 400 to 650 a day."

Well, that fits in with the range he's getting on that thing! But... why so few miles per day?

Taking One Lap of the Country in my Taycan Turbo - 10k miles in 6 weeks Cross-Country Journal

Basically, I’m just repeating: Drive for 3 hours, charge for an hour or so.

A 3-to-1 driving:charging ratio, seriously? That's like a Bolt! But why?

Not that it mattered, as it was a mere 50kW station. The pre-warming only really matters for 150kW or 350kW stations.

Ah, because of holes in Electrify America, he's being forced to do some of his stops on 50kW chargers.

Hurry up and wait....

(ED: I keep reading this guy's thread, and the more I read, the more comical everything becomes Has to take up two parking spaces because the cables don't reach his car... charging sessions terminating in the middle... getting far lower charging speeds then he's supposed to... in the last post I just read, the seat ventilation fan on his new Taycan just went out. )

ED2: Lol, bolt owner responding to his endless Electrify America problems: "Only EA around here. We call it Enrage America, real pain doing musical stations with the car in cold weather."

ED3: Re, charging at Electrify America in the Taycan: "I was charging 4-5 times because along the Trans-Canada Highway, you take every charge you can. They are spaced out approximately 110-150 miles apart. Too far to skip one (usually). And those days I was covering 500-650 miles. Each “full” (about 75-85% of the battery) charge takes about 45 minutes. A nice rest every three hours."

Let me add emphasis to that point: 45 minutes to fill up 110-150 miles range.

ED4: Just caught up to last Sunday. He just set a new record charging rate for his whole trip! This <strike>350kW</strike> 275kW car charging at 350kW stations for the first time hit...

194kW

 

[svp6]

Now is this not a tad misleading? Since you took the time to go through the 38 pages of that thread, you could have at least mentioned that the average consumption you quote is travelling in winter through Canada including a stint through a blizzard, and going though the Canadian Rockies.

Let's just agree that Taycan is way more expensive and will require more stops for charging at a much less developed network. It is still a great car to drive, you should try it before bashing it. Having done that, I think there is room for both the Taycan and the Tesla's in this world.