Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

I really don't get it.

Over the weekend Infections rise to 140K, deaths go to 2600.
The President announced we are shut down till the end of April and expect a minimum of 200K deaths.
Monday morning the NASDAQ rises 2.7 % !

Is the NASDAQ composed of mostly casket manufacturers ?

 

[Prunesquallor]

perfect. Were you able to get out your previous position in the 600s?
I think if SPY/QQQ can bounce up more to either 50% fib retracement level this week, TSLA can push itself up towards 600-625.
I have few shares that I want to sell at that point and rebuy..
Rest I will just ride out..... I did catch TSLA at 371. But couldn't more than I wanted to b/c fund stuck at that time with some other stock.

Yeah, my overall basis now is $278, so I’m OK. I had to deleverage by about 15% near the bottom to avoid margin calls (no dry powder), so I sold the recent high-priced ones to at least salvage a big short-term capital loss tax-wise. Hopefully, I can delay buying them back long enough to avoid wash adjustments.

 

[SMAlset]

The virus hit Seattle and the San Francisco Bay area with a big wave early but it appears WA and CA are pretty successful in flattening the curve. West coast many be leading the nation getting out of this mess earlier than you predicted.

Although Bay Area hospitals are anticipating a large influx of cv patients starting this week so not sure about that...

 

[Ameliorate]

On no news days for Tesla it seems we often look to the QQQ or NASDAQ to follow along with, here's a graph including QQQ (purple) and Crude oil (light blue). I suggest we are still tied to oil in some way rather than blaming it all on shorts/manipulation. Some days trend much closer with oil actually. Don't know how long it will take people to realize that BEV's are superior and will be if not already less expensive than ICE vehicles regardless of fuel prices.

PS I think the market is bullish today on news like - New York doctor touts use of hydroxychloroquine as coronavirus treatment 699 patients, 100% successful treatment so far (for this particular doctor). If things like this get widely used, hospital beds and ventilators will not be needed and the market will boom with all the newly injected fed money. Things could get back to normal sooner than later. This is what we need to turn the markets around is treatment to prevent people getting to the serious or on life support stages of covid.

Last Thursday:

Today:

 

[chronopublish]

Coronavirus Read it.

Medium is an open blogging platform that anyone can post to. The author here cites no scientific study, just conjecture. I can post a hundred SeekingAlpha articles with charts and graphs proving Tesla is doomed - did you read this article with the same skepticism that you would them? If not, it's worth asking yourself why.

The entire country of South Korea believes that fans left on overnight kill people. There are plenty of blog posts to support this, and fans in South Korea are legally required to have timers that automatically switch them off to protect people. There is no science to back this either.

 

[StealthP3D]

I really don't get it.

Over the weekend Infections rise to 140K, deaths go to 2600.
The President announced we are shut down till the end of April and expect a minimum of 200K deaths.
Monday morning the NASDAQ rises 2.7 % !

What is far more baffling to me is the number of people who still expect the market to move rationally and predictably in the short term. This is one of the first things I learned about investing (is that it doesn't just as often as it does). What has worked for me for many years is to always assume the market will try to fool the most people as often as possible. It's called contrarian investing. Just know when to apply it so that you don't overuse it. And therein lies the skill or the art.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Am I still right in expecting production and delivery report this friday?

 

[StealthP3D]

We should get the Q1 P&D report on Thursday. This is pretty exciting. I suspect it will be somewhat positive and it might even be used by the market manipulators to take this higher before they eventually take it back down as low as they can get it. Maybe as low as the low $400's (but it really depends on how the overall market narrative progresses).

 

[StealthP3D]

Am I still right in expecting production and delivery report this friday?

I wouldn't be concerned if it didn't come out on Thursday (due to possible employment disruption caused by CV) but any later than Friday would make me wonder what the heck was going on.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

im also hoping for some other news along with the report. Maybe actual dates for company day/battery day, maybe an update on AP progress. there is SO much good tesla news bottled up right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We should get the Q1 P&D report on Thursday. This is pretty exciting. I suspect it will be somewhat positive and it might even be used by the market manipulators to take this higher before they eventually take it back down as low as they can get it. Maybe as low as the low $400's (but it really depends on how the overall market narrative progresses).

I actually tend to think the P/D will itself determine whether we dole around the 400-low 500 level for the next month or so or if we move into 600 area and above and stay there.

I'm super frustrated with the macro markets right now because I definitely think they are overextended right now and will pull back kinda hard at some point this week...or next week. Maybe not down to the overall lows but somewhat close to them. I want that to happen before the P/D is out so that I can see how far Tesla goes down in that event and hopefully buy some more before the P/D report is out.

 

[ZeApelido]

The virus hit Seattle and the San Francisco Bay area with a big wave early but it appears WA and CA are pretty successful in flattening the curve. West coast many be leading the nation getting out of this mess earlier than you predicted.

Earlier than I predicted? If people are "back to work" in CA in 3 weeks, then the economy will be great and no layoffs / effects on demand on expensive items?

 

[Pezpunk]

I really don't get it.

Over the weekend Infections rise to 140K, deaths go to 2600.
The President announced we are shut down till the end of April and expect a minimum of 200K deaths.
Monday morning the NASDAQ rises 2.7 % !

Is the NASDAQ composed of mostly casket manufacturers ?

question: did you expect infections and deaths to go down? no? neither did the market.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

question: did you expect infections and deaths to go down? no? neither did the market.

Yeah while I think the macros have extended too far and will be down over the next week or two.....It would take extraordinarily bad developments for the market to freak again like it did for about 3 weeks there. While the news headlines are easy to freak out over, the infection/mortality rates across the world and in the US are sticking to the scenarios that wall st has already priced in.

 

[Green Pete]

KN95 are not N95. It's N95 that are in shortage.

Read the article

 

[neezer]

How Electric-Vehicle Startups Are Coping in Coronavirus Pandemic

 

[StealthP3D]

I actually tend to think the P/D will itself determine whether we dole around the 400-low 500 level for the next month or so or if we move into 600 area and above and stay there.

If I believed a good P&D report was capable of keeping us above $600 over the next month, I would be deploying more dry powder at these levels. The reason I don't believe that is I think the uncertainty of just how long production will be shut will seep into the investor mindset and have more sway than even a really strong P&D report. In other words, any bounce would be short-lived without evidence that production would be re-starting soon. That's kind of a fundamental requirement to moving substantially higher and staying there.

I'm super frustrated with the macro markets right now because I definitely think they are overextended right now and will pull back kinda hard at some point this week...or next week. Maybe not down to the overall lows but somewhat close to them. I want that to happen before the P/D is out so that I can see how far Tesla goes down in that event and hopefully buy some more before the P/D report is out.

Yeah, a strong P&D report would definitely support a higher floor for the likely case when the fear of a protracted recession is peaking. Personally, I don't see a protracted recession because the underlying economy is strong. CV has definitely dented the economy deeply. You can't just "buff that out" but I don't see a protracted recession.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

The CDC advises wearing a face mask only if sick yourself or caring for someone who is sick. Consider donating the ones you’re using to a hospital instead of using them unnecessarily as you’re doing now.

Their reasoning for this recommendation is that they don't believe you are smart enough to wear a mask without putting it on incorrectly because you haven't been through 8 years of medical school. I did 4 of engineering school, so I think I can figure out when I have the mask on inside out and upside down.

I had old stock of N95 masks that are not "new, still in the wrapper," so I wouldn't donate them because they don't want someone else's used masks. But I sure do wear them to go grocery shopping. You can see the gears turning in the heads of other shoppers. They look at you like something's wrong with you at first, then you can see in their eyes that they start wondering why they aren't wearing a mask.

After wearing one, I put it in the toaster oven at 175 degf to disinfect it.

Looking forward to the day when everyone is wearing masks. Right now it's the only explanation why some countries have lower rates of infection.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I really don't get it.

Over the weekend Infections rise to 140K, deaths go to 2600.
The President announced we are shut down till the end of April and expect a minimum of 200K deaths.
Monday morning the NASDAQ rises 2.7 % !

Is the NASDAQ composed of mostly casket manufacturers ?

Weeks ago there were a lot of potential outcomes, most concerning was this idea we'd see 2.2M deaths in the US.

It's become clear that's no longer a possible outcome, so markets are popping back. They may still tank on an eventual recession, but they now know the end of the world isn't here.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

Weeks ago there were a lot of potential outcomes, most concerning was this idea we'd see 2.2M deaths in the US.

It's become clear that's no longer a possible outcome, so markets are popping back. They may still tank on an eventual recession, but they now know the end of the world isn't here.

It's really hard to end the world, but it's not that hard for civilization to fall into anarchy, so it baffles me why the market isn't crashing right now. Most of the scenarios I see and read about have this virus paralyzing our economy for many months to come. Many businesses won't survive beyond this year if things don't get back to a more normal commerce. Sure there are some cures and vaccinations being talked about, but I just heard from a family member that is treating CV cases that a patient that appeared to be saved by the malaria drug is now on her deathbed.

It won't take much longer of the huge American pay-check-to-paycheck population becoming desperate to survive to the point that to them, it's either you die or they die, and they have nothing to lose - no money, no job prospects, no valuable assets, no food or medicine. People with nothing to lose are super scary people. And when you have millions of them with a weakened police force roaming the streets with guns, that scenario could be really ugly and like something out of the Walking Dead.

Not saying that's going to happen, even though some people a lot smarter than me are, but I am not putting more money in the market right now because we have a really long way to go, according to the experts, and it's going to be rocky!