adiggs
Well-Known Member
Efficient Market theorists say that is unlikely-to-impossible, but I'm willing to believe it in selected corners of the market with the fresh perspective of ARK Invest.
The short term traders would agree.
Something I've noticed in my own life, having followed Tesla way too much for 8+ years, is that I have an information advantage over almost everybody else. The financial advisor / helper Fidelity linked me up with, my wife, my chiropractor, everybody I work with - they've all got opinions on Tesla. And all of them are so superficial and uninformed, it's finally got me to just shut up around most people. The ones that are particularly strong about it, I ask them if they'd like to learn about another perspective on why I think TSLA is the safest thing to invest in rather than the riskiest. None of them have taken me up on it (my wife is willing to suspend disbelief, and doesn't have the energy to go through it all, so she trusts me and our overall approach ). EDIT to add - she has at least driven 2 different Teslas (our Roadster, and Model X). So she's crystal clear on the whole 'the product matters' angle - she lovers HER Roadster).
That information advantage, as best I can tell, extends to the professionals that follow the company and the auto industry, and the financial press (much less the regular press). To the extend that they reports events and facts, they are very helpful to me. To the extent that they opine on the latest way that Tesla will go bankrupt, or they figure out how to include a throwaway Tesla reference to garner clicks, they've proven themselves useless.
Particularly amusing to me are the way that 5-8 year old warnings about the company keep getting recycled, and keep sounding the same.
I don't believe that somebody that studies a company deeply can study ANY company deeply and get a meaningful information advantage. I do believe that the more disruptive / innovative a company is (different from the rest of their 'industry'), the more possible that there's something there (as there is with Tesla). Of course it's also possible that it's marketing spiel with no substance as well. Or there's substance there, but not execution. Or there is substance, execution, and bad timing or luck. There are many ways in which the information advantage can apply to something that doesn't pan out.
Last edited: