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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well there is no counterfactual. If it wasn’t this it might’ve been something else. Or not. My point is only that the USP of her and her fund is as something resembling an optimistic contrarian. Kathie still beating the drum for a V-Shape recovery should be seen in this light.

The fact is that she was proven wrong by the pandemic.

So easy to just say that if not this then something else.

Attack her when her V shape predictions fail. That would make sense at least.

BTW, very hard to say what will happen as the money printer is officially turned onto infinite, and with interest rates hovering at zero and the Fed buying all excess, why can’t the government simply borrow a quintillion or two? That will certainly solve the problem .

She may very well be correct. I am not smart enough to say either way. I think we are in for a long slog, but this is an unprecedented time for sure.
 
Guys, I'm a Tesla bull. However, I don't buy the notion cleaner air from COVID-19 quarantines will cause large numbers of people to purchase BEVs the next several years. Just don't see it.

Foxhole repentance rarely sticks once a person gets out of the foxhole. Fortunately, we have other reasons to be excited and the comfort of knowing time is on our side.
Some will, some won't. Its a distribution of change in our favor. All my (gas) friends talk about the clean air in conversation. Then, post shutdown, some coughs will return to some, and they will continue talking about the air... how it was really nice. Remember, a 1% change towards EVs and clean air represents HUGE EV growth.
 
Cathie Wood is brilliant at talking her own book and promoting her “innovation” fund. Good luck to her, she’s convinced many here to hand over management fees and hopefully she makes them some money.

ARK Invest offers 5 actively traded ETF's: ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF. Every single one of them has outperformed the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) over any comparison period I tested (5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 1 year, 9 months, 6 months, and 3 months), most of them by a HUGE margin. This comparison includes all fund fees. Anyone who knows anything about actively managed funds knows this is exceptional performance, the aggregate performance of all their actively managed ETF's almost unheard of. There's a reason their returns are the best in the business - they do real research and constantly adjust their positions to maintain this index-beating performance.

It wasn’t very many months ago that she was turning logic on its head talking about how this time it was different and yield inversion heralded a near perpetual bull run / period of economic growth due to “innovation”. Fair play Kathie, you are a heck of a sales person.

That's not turning "logic on its head". A lot of smart and very pragmatic people believe exactly the same thing. In fact, before I even knew who Cathie Wood was, I believed the same thing (and I still do). The theory you mention is supported (in part) by data going back to the roaring '20's and through the great depression. And, yes, there are major differences between those periods and the present which is why Cathie doesn't believe it will be exactly the same.

The very industries ARK specializes in (disruptive technologies) are the very industries that are leading this multi-decadal technology-driven bull run. I think it likely has 30-50 years left with only temporary setbacks along the way. Coronavirus is a temporary setback. Whether it is called a bear market or a steep correction is not nearly as important than whether the overall long-term trend stays intact. To me, this means that a broad basket of "new era" companies are substantially higher in two years even if broad indexes are within 3% of being flat. The world is changing and while actively managed indexes like the S&P 500 try to keep up with those changes, the world is changing faster than they are structured to adapt. This is how ARK Invest manages to beat those actively managed indexes (by being more nimble while remaining pragmatic).

Cathie Wood is actually not very skilled of a salesperson if you know anything about sales. The primary reason she is wildly successful (and has been since before Tesla started performing last year) is that her funds results speak for themselves. And while she has deep experience in the stock market, and she develops the investment strategies her company uses, she will be the first to tell you how much she owes to the technological expertise of the research team she manages.

My brokerage account consists of only stocks, leaps, cash and only 3% is in ARK ETF's (but I should probably have more).

To question the value Cathie Wood brings to the industry is to turn logic on it's head and ignore her results since founding ARK Invest over 5 years ago. Her funds performance through the Coronavirus turbulence (so far) really highlight just how effective her management is whether the market is rising or falling.
 
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This event has given researchers an otherwise impossible view into what the world looks like with a fraction the fossil fuels burning 24/7 across the globe ... i had always done thought experiments about this and pondered what would it look like if we could stop burning fossil fuels ... now we are likely to have 2 plus months of such data in various parts of the globe .... and so far the results are outstanding Los Angeles was the least polluted major city one day last week ...

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I'm all for clean/cleaner air and EV's everywhere, but this type of bolded 'anaylsis' is barely an anecdote. SoCal has has a LOT of wind and rain storms in the past few weeks (unusual in April), and even without the COVID slowdown, the air would have easily been clean on one day.
 
Ummm, it took a pandemic to prove her wrong. Think she had a lot of company. I had been thinking recession for at least two years prior to this, but it sure looked liked like I was wrong. I had plenty of company as well. Do not see how you can hold a pandemic against her thinking from four months ago.

"Prove her wrong"? I would argue it's impossible for a pandemic or other event beyond prediction to prove someone wrong unless they are making foolish absolute statements like "No matter what happens, pandemic, asteroid direct hit, major cataclysmic volcanic events, etc., stocks will continue to rise."

Cathie Wood never said foolish things like that and so the pandemic didn't "prove her wrong". In fact, I consider her more "right" than ever. She was wrong about one small thing that I am aware of so far: She conceded that in a down market her funds might under-perform the overall market (but by a lesser percentage than it over-performs during a normal market). Over the last 3 months, all 5 of ARK's actively managed funds have outperformed the $SPX.
 
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"Prove her wrong"? I would argue it's impossible for a pandemic or other event beyond prediction to prove someone wrong unless they are making foolish absolute statements like "No matter what happens, pandemic, asteroid direct hit, major cataclysmic volcanic events, etc., stocks will continue to rise."

Cathie Wood never said foolish things like that and so the pandemic didn't "prove her wrong". In fact, I consider her more "right" than ever.

Yeah that was my point. You can’t attack her thesis on the basis of the pandemic. You are responding to the wrong poster.
 
Yeah that was my point. You can’t attack her thesis on the basis of the pandemic. You are responding to the wrong poster.

No, I'm responding to the correct person. While I agree with the overall gist of what you were saying, you said:

"Ummm, it took a pandemic to prove her wrong."
My point here, which you now appear to agree with, is the pandemic didn't "prove her wrong".

Yes, words matter.
 
So the prior point was that Tesla shouldn’t receive subsidies because they get all their parts from China? Outside of that being completely false it would stand to reason that you’d support a company that will likely employee 100,000 plus in the next 5 years in the US. You would also support a company that is easing the transitions to sustainable energy for your country, as the cost of that move in a radical manner would be astronomical. But where are these subsidies? Pretty sure Tesla Motors outsold their subsidies, Tesla solar will still receive some just like every other solar company. If they mean bailout money I don’t think Tesla has been mentioned once to be helped during this time.

but yea we’ll be at $600 next week, it will be because of the laws of gravity that we are not above $1000
 
ARK Invest offers 5 actively traded ETF's: ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF. Every single one of them has outperformed the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) over any comparison period I tested (5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 1 year, 9 months, 6 months, and 3 months), most of them by a HUGE margin. This comparison includes all fund fees. Anyone who knows anything about actively managed funds knows this is exceptional performance, the aggregate performance of all their actively managed ETF's almost unheard of. There's a reason their returns are the best in the business - they do real research and constantly adjust their positions to maintain this index-beating performance.



That's not turning "logic on its head". A lot of smart and very pragmatic people believe exactly the same thing. In fact, before I even knew who Cathie Wood was, I believed the same thing (and I still do). The theory you mention is supported (in part) by data going back to the roaring '20's and through the great depression. And, yes, there are major differences between those periods and the present which is why Cathie doesn't believe it will be exactly the same.

The very industries ARK specializes in (disruptive technologies) are the very industries that are leading this multi-decadal technology-driven bull run. I think it likely has 30-50 years left with only temporary setbacks along the way. Coronavirus is a temporary setback. Whether it is called a bear market or a steep correction is not nearly as important than whether the overall long-term trend stays intact. To me, this means that a broad basket of "new era" companies are substantially higher in two years even if broad indexes are within 3% of being flat. The world is changing and while actively managed indexes like the S&P 500 try to keep up with those changes, the world is changing faster than they are structured to adapt. This is how ARK Invest manages to beat those actively managed indexes (by being more nimble while remaining pragmatic).

Cathie Wood is actually not very skilled of a salesperson if you know anything about sales. The primary reason she is wildly successful (and has been since before Tesla started performing last year) is that her funds results speak for themselves. And while she has deep experience in the stock market, and she develops the investment strategies her company uses, she will be the first to tell you how much she owes to the technological expertise of the research team she manages.

My brokerage account consists of only stocks, leaps, cash and only 3% is in ARK ETF's (but I should probably have more).

To question the value Cathie Wood brings to the industry is to turn logic on it's head and ignore her results since founding ARK Invest over 5 years ago. Her funds performance through the Coronavirus turbulence (so far) really highlight just how effective her management is whether the market is rising or falling.
I’ve recently bought into ARKG (Genomics) and ARKF (Fintech) - the non-Tesla ETFs. ARKG has nearly climbed out of the CV hole already and ARKF is still a bargain.
 
I have invested in ARKK and ARKF for some time but it appears I should research ARKG.....Thanks all for the ARK discussion as it awoken me to another possible investment.
How Innovations in Genomics and Biotech Can Help With COVID-19
Good podcast on genomics in the context of CV. If someone really computes the value of rapid viral testing and vaccine prep given recent events, I expect investment in this area will dramatically increase. I know little about the tech or the companies - hence ARK.
 
I did a little research into Genomics because of Ark but couldn't wrap my head around it enough to pull the trigger on investing in ARKG. Surely at some point that segment will ignite but it could be a very long time from now. Plus, picking winners vs losers seems nearly impossible.

ARKG has about 36 companies in Biotech/Life Sciences/Healthcare Technology but the top six holdings make up 50% of the fund. As you said, it's hard to pick the absolute winners, particularly if you are not fully educated in the field. ARK Invest has an expert in these fields but they still don't know who will be the big winners and which ones will fizzle out. So they hold them in proportion to the amount of conviction they have in each one (and totally exclude those companies who they have no confidence in).

Last 3 years:

S&P 500: 18.36% return

Biotech Sector: 18.2% return
Healthcare tech: 16.2% return
Life Sciences: 74.2% return!

ARKG: 63.53% return!

Apparently, Ark Invest is able to do company research and come up with conclusions that are useful for predicting future performance.
 
I expect a few less ships to europe, and a higher Y production (less parts) and local sales in USA. Elon will definitely surprise the market again in Q2. Y production is "easier" and production line is ready to go. Margins are higher on Y which will help in a profit for Q2, they will do everything to produce a profit in Q2. If they do, the SP will blast off like a Falcon Heavy on steroids.
Agree with this, from Munro disassembly I didn’t see any reason Model 3 GA lines cannot be switched to make Y overnight, or even produce 3 and Y at the same time.
Paint as far as I know is shared already and should be able to any production mix.
Body line seems need to be different but I won’t be surprised if they spend late March and April preparing for the retooling and programming of robots.
I am also expecting the Q2 Model 3/Y production mix to surprise everyone.