Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Edit: Back on topic, TSLA seems to be hanging around $730 this afternoon, which @Artful Dodger says is where the Upper Bollinger Band will be at the open tomorrow. I'm not sure what that means for tomorrow's trading.

Darn, I should have traded some options based on this observation.

Edit: In case it's not clear, I did not.

 

[bpjod]

Tesla must face shareholder lawsuit over Musk's going-private tweet

Really?! They're going to re-hash this again? From the article: "It was later established that he had not lined up funding, and Musk backed down from the going-private offer". I don't recall it being established that he had not lined up funding.

Secondly, a shareholder lawsuit? I was a shareholder then. Still am. Seems to me my shares today are worth double what they were the day he tweeted that (open: $343.84, closed: $379.57). Why would I want to sue for doubling my money in 20 months, especially considering the macro trends in this pandemic?

Pathetic...

 

[LJS22]

Tesla must face shareholder lawsuit over Musk's going-private tweet

Tesla up 15% on lawsuit that Musk made shareholders too much money!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Darn, I should have traded some options based on this observation.

Edit: In case it's not clear, I did not.

Someone really likes that 730 price point. We floated there a majority of yesterday, and then today when we opened up above it, we dropped below it, and then equaled out back to it.

 

[Mike Smith]

Well that should be a short hearing.
You see this spike: that was the news of the Saudi position.
You see this flat spot: that was when the tweets went out
You see that dip: that was the SEC filling a lawsuit they withdrew a couple days later.
You see this number: that's the stock price right now. Higher than then, higher than 420.

Edit: forgot the production hell dip. Volatility, thy name is TSLA

It has no chance of success for a bunch of reasons, but it's worth being aware of.

 

[LJS22]

From the geniuses at yahoo finance:


Amazing insight. This is adam jonas level thinking.

Has anyone done a good analysis on the chances of a break even or profit in Q1?
A few side items that could help would be clean air credits, monthly subscription for premium, FSD installs...

 

[woodisgood]

Someone really likes that 730 price point. We floated there a majority of yesterday, and then today when we opened up above it, we dropped below it, and then equaled out back to it.

Probably max pain for the “ax.”
Ax

 

[EV forever]

Has anyone done a good analysis on the chances of a break even or profit in Q1?
A few side items that could help would be clean air credits, monthly subscription for premium, FSD installs...

Here you go
Near-future quarterly financial projections

Check out the Near-future quarterly financial projections thread

 

[madodel]

Yes, but that's a euphemism for oil. He's a "poor mountaineer", which supposedly means Ozarks or Appalachia.

Wikipedia says Appalachia so Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia? Those are all coal. Is there much oil there? I expect all my fictional TV shows to be based in reality like my governments. Never thought much about it. Hooterville (Beverly Hillbillies,Petticoat Junction and Green Acres were set in that ramshackle town) was always generic. We must all be tired of COVID-19 to be straying this far off topic. Texas Tea continues to slump, the air is cleaner and TSLA is up yet again. Pass the smoked crawdads.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Update on Giga Berlin from today

• Significantly reduced water consumption will get added to the permit. This was a major concern for the public.
  
• Preliminary permits for foundation construction on hold, Tesla had to do that because pile driving was not mentioned in the original permit
• Due to the above, the permits process has to go a few steps back. The public has the right to review the changed permit for a few weeks (just like in January/February where ~350 objections were filed, which weren't addressed until now because of corona)
• The Minister of Economy of Brandenburg and leader of the Tesla Taskforce Jörg Steinbach, doesn't expect that the permit gets granted until October. (IMHO preliminary permits are still possible though). This guy was optimistic in the past months.
• The original timeline for final approval was this summer.
  
• Source with google translate: Google Übersetzer

Seems like Giga Berlin could be delayed by a few months. No idea if Tesla can get preliminary permits for pile driving until the public display time frame of the changed permits is over. Preliminary permits can get issued if the approval of the permit is very likely.

 

[Sanny]

Offtopic, but maybe anyone is interested in how Main street is doing and how successful is that small business stimulus package. After 2-3 weeks of trying to get our application for 2 types of SBA loans (that $350 bill package), I read today at Bloomberg that they run out of money now. I honestly do not know who could get that money aside from companies that were lucky enough to bank at the institutions that did accept applications (and almost all of them first accepted applications from most risky clients with open loans and CC lines to cover their asses with government money), Unfortunately, we bank at Capital One since 2015 and have no debt and that fine institution decided to just let all their client down and not participate in the program. I expect all small businesses will dump their asses hard like we just did, not sure if it will affect Cap One business or stock. We applied formally to 7 banks and Credit unions and filed maybe about 5-10 more preliminary applications (shorter version before you make a full application) into other institutions. None of them did actually process our application (and probably never will with the funding now ended). A touching personal remark at the ending: I did spend quite a bit of time as a kid standing in 1-2 hour lines to buy food in the Soviet Union in the 1990s but it was not nearly as insulting as that process to get government help in the US in 2020 (much less BS was involved).

 

[joh01652]

Anyone except Tesla to go to the 600’s again? Wanting to get in but not sure at the current price

I sold everything I had in the low $800s when rumors were circulating that we'd be shutting down the economy, I got scared and figured maybe it was the beginning of the end of civilization. I've been day trading since then.

Today I put ALL of my Roth and ALL of my savings into TSLA at $737. Call me stupid, but I'm feeling fairly confident from the news I read, the way the stock has risen over the past few weeks, and this forum that by year's end TSLA will be at or above $1000/share.

Not advice, just stating what I've done.

I feel that if Tesla fails, the world fails, so whatever.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Update on Giga Berlin from today

• Significantly reduced water consumption will get added to the permit. This was a major concern for the public.
  
• Preliminary permits for foundation construction on hold, Tesla had to do that because pile driving was not mentioned in the original permit
• Due to the above, the permits process has to go a few steps back. The public has the right to review the changed permit for a few weeks (just like in January/February where ~350 objections were filed, which weren't addressed until now because of corona)
• The Minister of Economy of Brandenburg and leader of the Tesla Taskforce Jörg Steinbach, doesn't expect that the permit gets granted until October. (IMHO preliminary permits are still possible though). This guy was optimistic in the past months.
• The original timeline for final approval was this summer.
  
• Source with google translate: Google Übersetzer

Seems like Giga Berlin could be delayed by a few months. No idea if Tesla can get preliminary permits for pile driving until the public display time frame of the changed permits is over. Preliminary permits can get issued if the approval of the permit is very likely.

When this was negotiated with Germany, wouldn't any competent person bake in penalties for not being complete on time. I mean, Tesla had very high leverage at the time to just name their terms and I recall several folks here making jokes on how it couldn't be done in Germany... too much red tape! And so here we are? I'm in the camp that Tesla knew about piles needed but someone left it out in the permit? Wow, waiting for the jury on that one.

Furthermore, we expect Texas to be better? The culture doesn't change that fast. They're still coal rolling right? They'd burn it down.

I think east coast is better b/c the center will lag adoption and we have a plant on the east coast. What am I missing? Maybe it's a Daniel Boone strategy to make friends with the Indians? (Or was that the "Long" Ranger? Oh, here we go...)

 

[jerry33]

Furthermore, we expect Texas to be better? The culture doesn't change that fast. They're still coal rolling right?

No, there is not actually much coal power in Texas, it's mostly NG and wind. However, most new applications are for solar with a few wind. The reason is that you can put in solar very fast. NG takes years from the time it's first started to when it comes on line. Previously, they planned 13 years out for electricity capacity. Now with solar they can get it done inside of three years. This makes it much more flexible.

 

[TSLAopt]

What would you call dumping two or three million shares in a couple of minutes, often just after opening or just before closing. Retai traders on Robinhood? Only the Market Makers and hedge funds have the resources to do that. It's just plain manipulation. See Papafox's thread.

There is a wide spectrum of folks on here from TSLA idiot savants to TSLA cheerleader lemmings. Thankfully, because TSLA is so strong fundamentally, almost any TSLA bull, no matter where on they are on this spectrum, should profit and do well over time. Some more than others.

People who believe in:
(a)conspiracy theories (e.g. intraday stock trading price manipulation on ~100bn market cap stock that trades 20mm+ shares a day)
and/or
(b)Astrology (e.g. in finance this is like trying to use 'chart based analysis' for upcoming stock trading decisions)

Someone much smarter than me (and probably all or 99.9% of us on here) Nassim Taleb, says that (b) can serve as helpful in that it can be like therapy for those who would otherwise be too stressed.
I believe (a) fulfills same goal in the case of TSLA bulls.

If moitoring the stock price go up and down everyday is too stressful to deal with then (a) or (b) will serve you just fine and we should all still make money when it comes to TSLA at least.

Just be careful when applying (a) and (b) to other investment decisions (especially a).

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Not off topic: I've been a Bernie guy, but looking on Biden's website Plan for Climate Change and Environmental Justice | Joe Biden, among other good climate policies, I was happy to see this:

Joe Biden: Accelerating the deployment of electric vehicles. There are now one million electric vehicles on the road in the United States. But a key barrier to further deployment of these greenhouse-gas reducing vehicles is the lack of charging stations and coordination across all levels of government. As President, Biden will work with our nation’s governors and mayors to support the deployment of more than 500,000 new public charging outlets by the end of 2030. In addition, Biden will restore the full electric vehicle tax credit to incentivize the purchase of these vehicles. He will ensure the tax credit is designed to targeted middle class consumers and, to the greatest extent possible, to prioritize the purchase of vehicles made in America. (bolded by me).

Just remember that this is a guy that has held fund raisers at Jim Chanos’ house. He probably has at least a bit of influence with Biden. That’s the crappy part about money in politics.

 

[dw4ngg]

I sold everything I had in the low $800s when rumors were circulating that we'd be shutting down the economy, I got scared and figured maybe it was the beginning of the end of civilization. I've been day trading since then.

Today I put ALL of my Roth and ALL of my savings into TSLA at $737. Call me stupid, but I'm feeling fairly confident from the news I read, the way the stock has risen over the past few weeks, and this forum that by year's end TSLA will be at or above $1000/share.

Not advice, just stating what I've done.

I feel that if Tesla fails, the world fails, so whatever.

Props to you for putting this out in public. Best of wishes to you (and me and us)!! I bought a few OTM Jul and Sep 2020 calls today myself.....

 

[mblakele]

When this was negotiated with Germany, wouldn't any competent person bake in penalties for not being complete on time.

Not a lawyer, but the pandemic could negate any penalties: I think the term is force majeure

 

[Etna]

In addition, Biden will restore the full electric vehicle tax credit to incentivize the purchase of these vehicles. He will ensure the tax credit is designed to targeted middle class consumers and, to the greatest extent possible, to prioritize the purchase of vehicles made in America. (bolded by me).

In case tailoring tax credits to disqualify foreign imports could be seen as contravening international trade, Biden could mandate a minimum vehicle length to qualify for EV incentives, as in 1 cm shorter than the Model 3 for example.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Heeeeeey I don't coal roll that's not fair. I can use a job at Tesla.

Not everyone... so there's hope!

Not sure if this is on topic - part of greenfield discussion for next GF. Anyway, about that Texas coal fever - and this appears recent data.
Texas - State Energy Profile Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

"Coal
Texas is the largest lignite producer in the nation.

Texas has more than 9 billion tons of estimated recoverable coal reserves, almost 4% of the nation's total.89 The state is the largest lignite producer in the nation and is among the top 10 coal producers overall.90 Lignite is the rank of coal with the lowest heat value. It is used almost exclusively for power generation, usually at coal-fired power plants near the mines.91 Substantial lignite deposits are found in narrow bands in the Texas Gulf Coast region.92 Higher-grade bituminous coal is located in deposits that run southward from north-central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley at the state's southern border.93 Although coal was primarily produced from underground mines in Texas before the mid-1950s, production at those mines ceased decades ago, and now all of the state's coal production is from surface mines.94 Lignite is recovered at eight surface mines, and one surface mine produces bituminous coal.95 In 2017, one of the state's lignite mines closed because the power plant it supplied with fuel shut down.96,97

Texas is also the largest coal-consuming state.98 On a tonnage basis, Texas lignite accounts for more than one-third of the state's coal consumption, with nearly all the rest of the state's needs met by subbituminous coal brought from Wyoming by rail. The lignite mined in Texas is consumed entirely within the state, and almost all of it is used to generate electricity. Lignite is delivered directly to Texas power plants by conveyor belt, truck, or rail. A small amount of coal is delivered to industrial facilities in the state"