Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DrMazeppa]

I see today a lot of strange topics being discussed here. I guess these are TSLA world problems...

Haven't been here for a while. Due to personal circumstances I had to close all my positions (except a few symbolic shares around 200) in early March. Though I guessed right the bottom in late March, I could not trade anymore for a while. I could only come back last week to see I missed the train. But I do not care, I am happy for you and the mission. The rest is just money, it' made up..

Just wanted to say, whatever happens tonight (but I share the positive feelings on the board) cheers to the longs here. I hope to be able to join you again sometimes in the future.

 

[StealthP3D]

Back to today's topic:

Tesla, Inc. Q1 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
Apr 29, 2020
3:30 PM PDT

Tesla, Inc. Q1 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

3:30 PM PDT:

Oslo time: 00:30 (including Grüneheide and most of Europe)

That's great that you included Oslo time but what most of us are interested in is Elon time. Because I don't think they will start it until he arrives!

On another note I saw this headline:

GM suspension of annual dividends saves $2.2B: Analyst

But I'm confused about headlines. Wouldn't it sound more normal if it said:

In desperation, GM Stops Paying $2.2B in Dividends: Analyst

I've heard the media just likes clicks, so why did they switch to such positive sounding headlines all of a sudden?

The telling part is that GM is hemorrhaging $4B every single month so complete suspension of dividends for an entire year only extends their life by about 17 days!

 

[woodisgood]

It's hard to imagine a huge jump in SP is possible given the macro environment, but I have that same opinion about the market in general so who knows. I'm not holding any speculative options that expire after the ER at this point. Everything left is 2021 or later.

You should have seen what's happened to ENPH over the last two days, following S&P 400 midcap inclusion. Two ~13% days in a row. I wouldn't have thought those types of jumps were possible in this macro environment too.

 

[guidooo]

or maybe he realizes there will be more deaths from starvation and other issues if we don't get the economy back to work.

Root cause of that seems to be the way society is organized.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you just want to give yourself the most time for stock price to appreciate, then yes, the furthest LEAP (currently Jun 2022) makes the most sense. But all of that time has a value (you're paying for it), especially now that premiums have been adjusted from dirt cheap levels and are through the roof. So if you think you have an idea of when a jolt to the SP may happen (e.g. FSD coming to fruition or S&P inclusion), a slightly lesser LEAP might be a better value. But that's similar to timing the market short-term and possibly even more impossible.

Another consideration if you're not in a tax-free account is whether you can hold that LEAP for minimum one year to reduce capital gains taxes.

I wondered if there would be a price to pay for bleeding off some time pressure with LEAPs. Thanks for clarifying, I'm doing nothing but imagining profits in Q1. There were only 2 weeks down in Fremont and 2 in China, but China ramped faster than expected. So it's entirely possible.

 

[Tim S]

Still a new guy, so I might be wrong, but aren't the LEAPS with the latest-expiring expiration date like the longest ladder across a crevice of unknown width? Considering the unprecedented (in our lifetimes) state of the world, why wouldn't you do that just for the extra security?

Love to hear what I'm missing or wrong about, thanks everybody.

The later the expiration, the more expensive the call. A Jan 2021 $800 call contract is worth about $19,000 right now. A Jan 2022 $800 call contract costs almost $26,000. So that extra security costs you about $7,000.

 

[jeffro01]

I noticed that most of the people who react like Jeffro are people who still have a job with full salary and can work from home.
His attitude of aggressive public shaming to anyone who dares mention re-opening is just as bad as the extreme right wing folks in my opinion.

There is a middle ground.

PS - I'm about as left wing as it gets but I can't stand this whole public shaming campaign going on.

Yawn... If you're about as left wing as it it gets you wouldn't have made this post. There's not a single economic price worth the deaths of 10s of thousands of people in the US alone much less the increasing numbers push ever closer to 100K+ deaths... But hey, you do you, be totally okay with sacrificing the lives of innocent people so you can make a buck or two...

Jeff

 

[StealthP3D]

Without getting into raw numbers the biggest lesson I've learned in the last year of investing is the first ingredient to being weathy is always either "get lucky" or "start off wealthy". Im a software engineer in SF, but after I had one landslide trade it has been shocking to me how at a certain point money begets money. Wage stagnation and the divide between rich and poor is incredible, and I say that coming from having a pretty solid job. Side note I also drove for uber 4 years ago, had a negative net worth and almost no investments. Last few years have been interesting.

Point being:

U.S. Hunger Relief Organization | Feeding America

and be humble, nobody works 100x harder than someone else. The fact some people have 100x more than others is not a mindset, it's a travesty.

I've written about the travesty of wealth inequality right here on this thread many times. But I do know that one person, even a very determined person, is not going to fix this inequality. This is what I saw back in the 1980's when I was living from paycheck to paycheck with no clear path out of working man's poverty. It has become worse since then.

While I knew I couldn't fix wealth inequality, I was confident I could work within the system so it didn't trap me in poverty. I become determined to change my own situation in life. I decided that I was in control of my financial destiny and I did it by "thinking wealthy". I didn't say I didn't have enough, I said I had more than enough and convinced myself I was living well (even though I lived like a college student). I tightened the spending down to as low as realistically possible and starting to invest every extra dollar in well-managed companies. Spending more than $1200 on a car would be considered extravagant and I only had one pair of skis that I would ski and repair until they didn't work well anymore. I worked at a ski area so I didn't have to buy lift tickets and get free meals. Many of my friends went off and took jobs that paid a lot more but they were always buying things, cars, clothes, vacations, and always broke. They had a mindset of never having enough. I had a mindset of having more than I needed.

That's what I'm talking about here. Not whether there is wealth inequality. Certainly, there is.

 

[Remus]

I noticed that most of the people who react like Jeffro are people who still have a job with full salary and can work from home.
His attitude of aggressive public shaming to anyone who dares mention re-opening is just as bad as the extreme right wing folks in my opinion.

There is a middle ground.

PS - I'm about as left wing as it gets but I can't stand this whole public shaming campaign going on.

Calling for A rational debate is great, like his friend Jason did. Yelling "free America now" is not!!

 

[Big Dog]

Yawn... If you're about as left wing as it it gets you wouldn't have made this post. There's not a single economic price worth the deaths of 10s of thousands of people in the US alone much less the increasing numbers push ever closer to 100K+ deaths... But hey, you do you, be totally okay with sacrificing the lives of innocent people so you can make a buck or two...

Jeff

Hey Jeff: do you support lowering hi way speeds to say, 35 mph, which would save thousands of innocent lives every year?

 

[dw4ngg]

Absolutely not and I'm stunned people think my post is funny... You people think infecting and killing innocent people is funny? Really...???

Jeff

When you want to boot the only reason Tesla is successful from Tesla (i.e fire Elon), it isn't out of the norm to consider sarcasm as a way to rationalize the flawed logic. That said, are you short or long Tesla?

Try to bring this up for shareholder vote. The end.

 

[hoang51]

i think the numbers for Q1 in this report will be very good. the projections will (or realistically, should) be bad. They're not building (and therefore selling) as many cars as they wanted to. that's gonna hurt, in a variety of ways. it's hard to tell how "baked in" lowered expectations are. it's particularly hard to judge how the market's gonna react. i'm paralyzed -- i made no moves. just sticking to my long-term hold strategy, since i can't sufficiently convince myself with any certainty either way.

I concur with this mostly. Remember (new) folks, just because TSLA beat Q1 estimates doesn't send the stocks up long term. It's the guidance for Q2+ that will make or break the share price. Most articles with headlines stating "TSLA beats Q1 estimates but stock sinks" are pathetic.

 

[Tim S]

Here are the times of Electrek's Tesla earnings posts the past 4 quarters. The actual release was probably a few minutes earlier.

Q4 4:22 PM ET
Q3 4:57
Q2 4:52
Q1 5:16

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Yawn... If you're about as left wing as it it gets you wouldn't have made this post. There's not a single economic price worth the deaths of 10s of thousands of people in the US alone much less the increasing numbers push ever closer to 100K+ deaths... But hey, you do you, be totally okay with sacrificing the lives of innocent people so you can make a buck or two...

Jeff

I don't know why you equate a cautious re-opening of the economy = thousands of deaths.

So we should keep everything permanently closed until 300 million people are vaccinated in 2 years time. Got it.

 

[dc_h]

I sold May 1 covered calls today strike 920 for 10.30 per contract. I have the underlying stock, so I risk losing out on an amazing call and massive short covering to 2000. My dream was to buy 900 calls cheap right before closing, but a 10-15% move seems to be built into the earnings call.
The FOMO is real!

 

[Mo City]

My final thought is the market doesn't give a care if Fremont re-opens May 4th or June 4th. The only thing that matters are the fundamentals and outlook that are revealed today.

Many here also seem to think the stock price is destined to swing hard one way or the other after the ER. I'm not so sure of that.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Yawn... If you're about as left wing as it it gets you wouldn't have made this post. There's not a single economic price worth the deaths of 10s of thousands of people in the US alone much less the increasing numbers push ever closer to 100K+ deaths... But hey, you do you, be totally okay with sacrificing the lives of innocent people so you can make a buck or two..
Jeff

LOL. Such well thought out reasoning. Sounds like you need to get over to the Coronavirus echo chamber thread.

 

[woodisgood]

Many here also seem to think the stock price is destined to swing hard one way or the other after the ER. I'm not so sure of that.

My gut also says that the swing will be tempered by MMs.

 

[EV forever]

So do you guys do any pre-game stretches for your fingers to loosen them up for the F5 action? Also, which is your preferred finger? I've contemplated alternating fingers but I'm not sure if now is the time to try a new strategy. Kicking myself for not preparing in advance but these ERs just kind of sneak up on you.

Well, I am going to take the long trek to the kitchen and grab some lunch instead. WFH means a lot of walks to the kitchen ....

 

[ZachF]

Yawn... If you're about as left wing as it it gets you wouldn't have made this post. There's not a single economic price worth the deaths of 10s of thousands of people in the US alone much less the increasing numbers push ever closer to 100K+ deaths... But hey, you do you, be totally okay with sacrificing the lives of innocent people so you can make a buck or two...

Jeff

Life should always take precedence over money, but many parents right now are losing the ability to put a roof over their heads and food in their kids bellies. Having solipsistic elderly people tell them they are selfish for wanting this does not endear them to your cause.

Its not the scroog McDuck types suffering the economic consequences. Again, life should always come first, but there seems to be a huge tunnel vision focus on only one thing, while ignoring other factors. Society cant absorb an infinite amount of economic pain. Supply chains aren't invulnerable (anybody checked out the meat and vegetables isles lately?). These need to be factored in... It's not about 'making a buck'.