Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I cannot get any work done today (but I slept well b/c of vitamins, he-he).

There is zero chance that 10 stories don't come out tomorrow negative on Tesla. They likely even have multiple narratives depending on profit vs loss. This could be oil's last chance really. Although, the short strategy has become less effective with a faster rebound now it seems. And if Elon knew that he had a smash record

So what's the headline going to be post earnings?

FUDdle DUDdle Times:

• "Tesla lowers annual guidance in fear of continued factory shutdowns."
• "Without their (FSD, solar, other) credits, Tesla is losing money fast!"
• "This valuation makes no sense...that's a P/E of ..."
• "They can't survive a second wave shutdown"
• "Redlight fender-bender, how safe is FSD really?"
• Kelly Blue Book survey shows that consumers don't Trust Tesla as much as a Lexus."

I'm having trouble coming up with any that concern me. Mostly old stories come to mind.

 

[woodisgood]

I cannot get any work done today (but I slept well b/c of vitamins, he-he).

There is zero chance that 10 stories don't come out tomorrow negative on Tesla. They likely even have multiple narratives depending on profit vs loss. This could be oil's last chance really. Although, the short strategy has become less effective with a faster rebound now it seems. And if Elon knew that he had a smash record

So what's the headline going to be post earnings?

FUDdle DUDdle Times:

• "Tesla lowers annual guidance in fear of continued factory shutdowns."
• "Without their (FSD, solar, other) credits, Tesla is losing money fast!"
• "This valuation makes no sense...that's a P/E of ..."
• "They can't survive a second wave shutdown"
• "Redlight fender-bender, how safe is FSD really?"
• Kelly Blue Book survey shows that consumers don't Trust Tesla as much as a Lexus."

I'm having trouble coming up with any that concern me. Mostly old stories come to mind.

I will be really, really surprised if there is not something unexpected to discuss following this ER.

 

[UncaNed]

OK, I think I was debating the same action (but not quite up to speed on the lingo).
I have an $800 Call Exp Jan '21. It's double what I paid already.
If there is another deep dive on TSLA this year, I'd rather have more time for things to recover. So should I cash in today and buy one for say late '21 instead?

Still a new guy, so I might be wrong, but aren't the LEAPS with the latest-expiring expiration date like the longest ladder across a crevice of unknown width? Considering the unprecedented (in our lifetimes) state of the world, why wouldn't you do that just for the extra security?

Love to hear what I'm missing or wrong about, thanks everybody.

 

[Don TLR]

8 Hundy

 

[dl003]

IIRC, last time financials came out around 2:45 CST?

 

[LN1_Casey]

I will be really, really surprised if there is not something unexpected to discuss following this ER.

Expecting the unexpected?

 

[tinm]

Wifi nerds I’m sure appreciated the stock briefly settling on 802.11

 

[Pezpunk]

Do you think sending millions into poverty and increasing child abuse is ok?

i'd take this comment more seriously if this newfound conservative crusade against poverty and child abuse didn't begin and end with "opening businesses during a pandemic".

 

[hoang51]

I sold out about 66% of my TSLA position to not hold through the earnings due to the extended shutdown announced recently for the Tesla Freemont Factory at $797 and 798. Would've been nice if it was in the $800, but can't always time the top while I was typing this. I'd rather have a good chunk of cash on the sidelines in case TSLA decides to dip and/or second wave of coronavirus hitting US soil after lifting safeguards, can load up on cheaper shares (I bought one $500 TSLA share, and that made me a whopping > 50%, wished I had more cash on hand). Wife already grilled me for holding through the early coronavirus warnings when TSLA was > $900. Better to play it safe from here. Q1 would be decent, but Q2, not so good, even if the China factory is still pumping out cars. Tesla is crippled due to the extended shutdown in California. Of course, Tesla is ahead of all other automakers, but to me is not sound to hold through earnings. Good luck to those who are holding through earnings, especially the options players.

 

[woodisgood]

Still a new guy, so I might be wrong, but aren't the LEAPS with the latest-expiring expiration date like the longest ladder across a crevice of unknown width? Considering the unprecedented (in our lifetimes) state of the world, why wouldn't you do that?

If you just want to give yourself the most time for stock price to appreciate, then yes, the furthest LEAP (currently Jun 2022) makes the most sense. But all of that time has a value (you're paying for it), especially now that premiums have been adjusted from dirt cheap levels and are through the roof. So if you think you have an idea of when a jolt to the SP may happen (e.g. FSD coming to fruition or S&P inclusion), a slightly lesser LEAP might be a better value. But that's similar to timing the market short-term and possibly even more impossible.

Another consideration if you're not in a tax-free account is whether you can hold that LEAP for minimum one year to reduce capital gains taxes.

 

[Quesder]

Side note before the ER: there might be some merit to stock going up based on AP progress. From the financial perspective it is a nuclear bomb. Just in short term (year or two), even if we think very conservatively, say .5M existing vehicles that didn't already pay for AP will decide to pay lump sum of $30K, that's $15B in the bank with next to zero marginal cost. Plus a large proportion of them will likely be profit sharing in the ride hail network. Silly money and that's just very short term. Any progress on AP should be priced in with an eye on how is that affecting probable future cash flows. Unlike everyone else in the race, Tesla is now testing the actual real thing that drives cars on city streets with a massive fleet and geo coverage, experiencing real life situations and FREE and willing supervising human drivers. It's no small potatoes.

Edit: something that might not be obvious to non-experts: yes the tech and expertise to produce working neural nets is essential but it is just means to an end. What makes the whole thing possible is the training dataset. Given a good enough training dataset, there will be many teams capable of training a good NN out of that. It isn't exactly that simple but the "proceed through the intersection" confirmation that Tesla is collecting on every intersection now is a massive boost to their ability to create a good enough training dataset to solve this aspect of self driving.

I doubt your $15B number
First, what is the $30k AP? The AP was $3k to purchase back in 2017 and now is included.
Even FSD is only $7k now

second, Tesla just produced 1 M cars and many of the already have AP. How do you have .5 M cars to install AP?

 

[madodel]

Do you think sending millions into poverty and increasing child abuse is ok?

There is an entire political and a CV thread to discuss the incompetence that led us here. Can we please stop this insanity. People are dying. The medical workers and first responders are getting this and many are dying as well. Please stop it all.

 

[EV forever]

Ok Folks, lets focus on the money part.
Anyone investing/betting specifically on ER - post so before the ER is released.

My bets:

• Did not buy any stock, as I already own all the stock I want to HODL. As I have said before, this does not stop me from playing the options game.
• Call options purchased yesterday when stock was ~ 780. These were expensive. Not listing specific prices, but since they were bought yesterday when stock was around 780, you can guess how expensive.
  • May 15 @ 795
  • May 22 @ 850
  • May 22 @ 940
  • May 29 @ 850
  • June 19 @800
  • Lottery ticket May 15 @ 1260 (this strike price is 3 X 420 )
• Expiration dates are much later than ER since in my experience, TSLA always takes atleast a week to get to highest prices after ER. Also gives some time to recover if the ER is bad and stock takes a crash
• I understand I may lose all of this after today, but it is OK. I am spending some of my gains from the previous round of call options.

Good wishes to everyone waiting for the ER!!

 

[elasalle]

Passing Through after long break
Sold Covered Calls against all my Stocks past few days.
Jan 21 1500 and up, will take the chances ..

 

[Nocturnal]

It's hard to imagine a huge jump in SP is possible given the macro environment, but I have that same opinion about the market in general so who knows. I'm not holding any speculative options that expire after the ER at this point. Everything left is 2021 or later.

When did the question of whether we open up or not become “right wing” vs. “left wing”? Weird!

That happened when Trump began downplaying the virus as a Democratic hoax and continued with his goading protestors to "liberate" their states in order to cause confusion and strife in states he sees as unfriendly.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still a new guy, so I might be wrong, but aren't the LEAPS with the latest-expiring expiration date like the longest ladder across a crevice of unknown width? Considering the unprecedented (in our lifetimes) state of the world, why wouldn't you do that?

I think my best answer is that I'm not worried about it really. And I'm also green and not so confident that I can trade options correctly right now.

But I have a new secret that's keeping me from selling at all. Imagine that Tesla's about to blow the roof off with news. No, really imagine the stock going up really fast... but you sold them too soon. THAT's what keeps me holding today, and it's working. Try it.

 

[Buckminster]

Wow, Elon should really STFU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
This can do nothing but cause grief. Along with (Elon Musk on Twitter).

For those of you who don't do Twitter, that's "FREE AMERICA NOW" (yes, all caps) and "Bravo Texas!" in reply to a tweet stating that Texas is opening various businesses on Friday. Has he learned nothing?

This was the post that started it all. Reposted as a historical artefact. It got 20 likes and 20 disagrees. Never has the forum been so divided. Reminds me of Brexit.. For what it's worth, I think you are all being reductive. What is the value of a person's life today = unknowable. What is the value of a person's love of the world who may or may not go through depression following a recession = unknowable. Does there have to be a right answer on whether to open up the economy or not?
For those too scared to post on the Coronavirus thread (it is a pro shutdown echo chamber), let me know if you want me to setup an alternative thread to balance things out.

I invest in Tesla, not Elon. Guess I’ll leave it at that.

Agreed - Elon's importance reduces over time because he gets the culture right. Investing in the Boring Co without Elon would almost be a gamble at this time.

I went and looked at Ford's earnings announcement from yesterday. There were a couple of things I found interesting. One is that they have plenty of access to cash, they say in a couple of places that they could stay shut down and still survive till the end of 2020. That's longer than I would have expected. Another is that they break out details based on regions but not based on models or brands. I was really looking to see how hard their F-150 sales have been impacted.

Lastly, slide 10. I can't make the numbers add up. Sorry the image isn't very clear, it's this or full screen. Can someone explain their arithmetic? Or are they just wrong?
View attachment 537076

Ford not being able to count would explain a few things about their vehicles...

Elon's tweet suggests that Fremont won't open for another month. Q2 will be a disaster with only one month of production in the US. No S&P 500 this year. I'm predicting we are below 700 at the end of the week. (Since I'm usually wrong, now is a good time to buy OTM calls while I miss out....)

P.S. - I've learned that for the opposite to happen, I have to actually post my thoughts on the www so the world can keep track of how often I'm wrong. You're welcome, again.

. I assume you have tried to bet against yourself previously and failed?

 

[Curt Renz]

IIRC, last time financials came out around 2:45 CST?

That would have been 15 minutes before the market close. My email records indicate I received the 2019 fourth quarter earnings report on 2020 JAN 29 at 21 minutes after the market close. It was timestamped at 17 minutes after the market close. In the cases of the 2019 second and third quarter reports, the emails arrived about an hour after the market close.

 

[Pezpunk]

Ok Folks, lets focus on the money part.
Anyone investing/betting specifically on ER - post so before the ER is released.

My bets:

• Did not buy any stock, as I already own all the stock I want to HODL. As I have said before, this does not stop me from playing the options game.
• Call options purchased yesterday when stock was ~ 780. These were expensive. Not listing specific prices, but since they were bought yesterday when stock was around 780, you can guess how expensive.
  • May 15 @ 795
  • May 22 @ 850
  • May 22 @ 940
  • May 29 @ 850
  • June 19 @800
  • Lottery ticket May 15 @ 1260 (this strike price is 3 X 420 )
• Expiration dates are much later than ER since in my experience, TSLA always takes atleast a week to get to highest prices after ER. Also gives some time to recover if the ER is bad and stock takes a crash
• I understand I may lose all of this after today, but it is OK. I am spending some of my gains from the previous round of call options.

Good wishes to everyone waiting for the ER!!

i think the numbers for Q1 in this report will be very good. the projections will (or realistically, should) be bad. They're not building (and therefore selling) as many cars as they wanted to. that's gonna hurt, in a variety of ways. it's hard to tell how "baked in" lowered expectations are. it's particularly hard to judge how the market's gonna react. i'm paralyzed -- i made no moves. just sticking to my long-term hold strategy, since i can't sufficiently convince myself with any certainty either way.

 

[woodisgood]

So do you guys do any pre-game stretches for your fingers to loosen them up for the F5 action? Also, which is your preferred finger? I've contemplated alternating fingers but I'm not sure if now is the time to try a new strategy. Kicking myself for not preparing in advance but these ERs just kind of sneak up on you.