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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Or because diesel fuel now costs $0.35/mile. Tesla Semi still beat that on cost, but it's shrewd to prioritize battery resources for the profitable 3/Y during the these times of low fuel prices, while the new-tech battery factory buildout proceeds. A year is about right.

Perhaps they also got some feedback from customers that they were OK with delaying delivery, as budgets have been trimmed due to COVID-19.
 
I can’t believe that I am sticking my head out of the gopher hole on this topic. I am saddened by how polarized everything is nowadays. Our response to COVID19-19 is undoubtedly a matter of policy over which reasonable people may disagree. “Science” doesn’t dictate one policy over another. There are many factors to weigh. In fact, I think that the appeal to “science” is often misused. Science is a methodology. It can be used to tell us many valuable things about the virus. But it’s only part of the policy analysis.

One way or another, we will all get through these strange times. I am confident that Tesla can weather the storm and I believe that it will continue to take market share from ICE vehicles. My investments are premised on the belief that for many people, their next car will be electric. This is why I believe Tesla will thrive while the ICE manufacturers will suffer.

The problem with science is not being misused, but just goes in all directions because everything is being studied at the same time. One study shows how this virus could be more deadly than it is based on deaths vs previous years. Another study shows that 15% of people already has the antibody and didn't even know they caught Covid which makes death rate much lower. Also how are we having one source saying remdesivir works and another source says that it doesn't work? Same with hydroxychloroquine. It's just a confusing mess out there and both sides definitely have plenty of ammo to fight each other.
 
I can’t believe that I am sticking my head out of the gopher hole on this topic. I am saddened by how polarized everything is nowadays. Our response to COVID19-19 is undoubtedly a matter of policy over which reasonable people may disagree. “Science” doesn’t dictate one policy over another. There are many factors to weigh. In fact, I think that the appeal to “science” is often misused. Science is a methodology. It can be used to tell us many valuable things about the virus. But it’s only part of the policy analysis.

One way or another, we will all get through these strange times. I am confident that Tesla can weather the storm and I believe that it will continue to take market share from ICE vehicles. My investments are premised on the belief that for many people, their next car will be electric. This is why I believe Tesla will thrive while the ICE manufacturers will suffer.

The big picture is the Q1 result was good and was on track to be a great upside surprise before COVID-19...

Q2 is a more worrying quarter, it is certainly challenging and to my way of thinking probably represents the peak impact from COVID-19 on Tesla, but if any car company can some how manage to cobble together reasonable Q2 results Tesla is that company.

More to the point investing in Tesla isn't always about the next quarter, or even the next 6-12 months, my time horizon is 5 years, and I expect to be very happy in 5 years time.
 
The problem with science is not being misused, but just goes in all directions because everything is being studied at the same time. One study shows how this virus could be more deadly than it is based on deaths vs previous years. Another study shows that 15% of people already has the antibody and didn't even know they caught Covid which makes death rate much lower. Also how are we having one source saying remdesivir works and another source says that it doesn't work? Same with hydroxychloroquine. It's just a confusing mess out there and both sides definitely have plenty of ammo to fight each other.
WRT to remdesivir, it's Gilead claiming they have their own data showing it works while refusing to share any of that data but third parties doing double-blind controlled studies claiming it doesn't. Who do you trust more?
 
I think politeness was threw out the window given his demeanor. My guess is that he had one more crack at it prior to earnings call and completely got rejected, hence his twitter rant the night before earnings. Probably hang up the phone and threw it at the window.

the politeness would be in the blog post, and no, it would not be Elon writing it. He is just not articulate enough for the masses, his thinking is a few levels over everyone’s understanding. Praise the authorities for the great work they have done so far, explain Tesla’s position and end by asking why the authorities won’t allow essential businesses to open. But be very very polite in doing this.
 
I can’t believe that I am sticking my head out of the gopher hole on this topic. I am saddened by how polarized everything is nowadays. Our response to COVID19-19 is undoubtedly a matter of policy over which reasonable people may disagree. “Science” doesn’t dictate one policy over another. There are many factors to weigh. In fact, I think that the appeal to “science” is often misused. Science is a methodology. It can be used to tell us many valuable things about the virus. But it’s only part of the policy analysis.

One way or another, we will all get through these strange times. I am confident that Tesla can weather the storm and I believe that it will continue to take market share from ICE vehicles. My investments are premised on the belief that for many people, their next car will be electric. This is why I believe Tesla will thrive while the ICE manufacturers will suffer.

Well said. Any person tweeted their policy guided by science and experts just made me puke. Anyone who have submitted a paper to journal for peer-reviewed know "experts" don't exist. A lot of time "experts" don't like what you said, regardless how novel it is, your work will be censored out.

Exhibit A: Alzheimer's original theory was recently debunked, but it was so deeply believed by medical experts that any alternative explanation would deemed impossible and not get published or funded. Wasting 15 years of life and money.
 
I wrote this missive for my staff as we phase back into our “regular” work schedule. A new kind of “regular”.

We are seeing so much anxiety about resuming business, and so much anger about continued regulations. People are feeling the need to pick one side or the other and then slug it out with the ‘opposition’. These are fights we don’t need any time, much less now.

Here’s perspective obtained from the current mainstream medical model during this unprecedented time. A lot of us have fallen into the idea that physical distancing will stop the viral spread. It wasn't meant to and it won’t. Physical distancing was meant to slow the spread while astute medical operations staff put additional infrastructure in place to help. So far it has worked. We have, in most if not all of the U.S., not been overwhelmed like we probably would have been without protective measures. In the meantime, testing procedures will continue to improve from an initial state of inadequacy. The ventilator count has been increased. Hospitals have a little better handle on PPE supply chains, and many caring individuals have helped by making masks and gowns. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better than it was six or eight weeks ago.

A vaccine is a probably a very long way off unfortunately. However, at some point, people will have to be systematically exposed to begin the building of what the medical community hopes will be collective ‘herd immunity’. Medical experts agree that we will likely begin to experience an increase in cases after reopening. Ideally, that exposure is controlled and calculated, in the phases that have been much discussed by federal/state/local authorities, to continue allowing the medical community to respond appropriately and reduce the number of severe or fatal cases.

Whether you feel like the US (or other countries) are opening too soon, or not soon enough, we were never going to physically distance COVID-19 (aka, SARS-COV-2) into oblivion. We now must band together and get back to work while still individually proceeding as your health, wallet, and conscience allow and exercising our freedom to make that choice.

If you are medically vulnerable, you do not need to be a part of this process and it’s incumbent upon the rest of us to take care of YOU. Stay home if you can. If you’re not able and your financial vulnerability trumps your individual health concerns, you need to proceed in ways that continue to protect you, the elderly and the medically vulnerable around us all. We have knowledge and mechanisms in place to do that.

We must not tell people who are financially struggling that they don’t care about human lives. We must not tell people who are truly at risk of dying from this virus that they are cowering in fear. We will be careful with our judgments and refrain from harsh words. There’s no direction in a storm. All boats are blown in different directions by the same wind and each ‘boat’ has to take a different path.

We don’t have to take a hard stance one way or another in this fight. Some examples are:

“I think this is too soon, but I will continue to shelter myself, and pray/make masks/check on those who can’t. I’ll do what I can from my ‘boat’.”

“I (We) really need to go back to work, so I (we) will, but I (we) will be careful and respectful and conscientious and do my (our) very best to protect myself (ourselves), my (our) family, and those around me (us) with health vulnerabilities or current financial hardships.”

From our different ‘boats’, we can still somewhat steer in the storm in a semi-controlled fashion while allowing each of us to do what we need to do while still respecting those who must act differently from us.

Through humility, understanding, partnership, communication and, most importantly, respect we can act appropriately while acknowledging that none of us are macro-economists who truly understand the overarching ramifications of this bizarre time. We are doing the best we can with our own individual understanding of a generational, mind-blowing, incredibly complex subject that wasn’t taught in any classroom we’ve been in. At the same time, we are, as always, making determinations on what is best for our own personal health and individual financial situation. We must understand that we can all make different choices and still be a supportive community. We must be willing and flexible to adapt and change as our knowledge evolves while still caring for ourselves and each other.
 
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The problem with science is not being misused, but just goes in all directions because everything is being studied at the same time. One study shows how this virus could be more deadly than it is based on deaths vs previous years. Another study shows that 15% of people already has the antibody and didn't even know they caught Covid which makes death rate much lower. Also how are we having one source saying remdesivir works and another source says that it doesn't work? Same with hydroxychloroquine. It's just a confusing mess out there and both sides definitely have plenty of ammo to fight each other.

Oh, I agree with that too. I’m just suggesting that the appeal to science is misused when people claim that science dictates a particular policy. The science on level railway crossings is pretty settled. People die at level railway crossings. But does “science” tell us that overpasses need to be constructed wherever a roadway intersects with a railway? The policy response involves more than the science. It’s ugly to admit it, but there is frequently a valid cost-benefit analysis.

I’m glad that Musk weighed in, and I even sympathize with his frustration. However, I wish his response was just a little more measured. It would have been more persuasive.
 
Have them choose what ?

Don’t be obtuse. They can choose to go back to work under the protocols listed for their business type or continue to shelter at home until such time as they believe the risk to themselves is tolerable.

Just as Elon gave his employees the choice of coming to work and following protocols Tesla set out or stay home if they were uncomfortable, afraid or not feeling well.

You know, like they can decide to go to the grocery store now following protocols laid out or choose to have no contact delivery of their groceries.

Like they can choose to go for a hike as long as they have a mask on their person and use it if they come within 6 feet of another person or stay home and use their treadmill without a mask.
 
WRT to remdesivir, it's Gilead claiming they have their own data showing it works while refusing to share any of that data but third parties doing double-blind controlled studies claiming it doesn't. Who do you trust more?

Neither at this point. Trust is earned. You don’t get it simply by swinging a bigger stick.

I don’t have any historical relationship/data/or otherwise with anyone involved at Gilead or from said third parties. But I do know how people operate when their paycheck/reputation/whatever it is they value is on the line. People lie, they cheat. And for every study that says one thing, you can find five that say the opposite.
 
I am not going to die for Elon Musk's bonus.

I listened to the Apple earnings call today and nobody complained about the stay at home orders. Apple is not only focused on long term growth, but they also care about the safety of it's employees and customers. I sold some Tesla stock today and I will but some Apple tomorrow.

Elon Musk should get off twitter.
 
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I am not going to die for Elon Musk's bonus.

I listened to the Apple earnings call today and nobody complained about the stay at home orders. Apple is not only focused on long term growth, but they also care about the safety of it's employees and customers. I sold some Tesla stock today and I will but some Apple tomorrow.

Elon Musk should get off twitter.
That's because Apple doesn't make anything in the bay area lol
 
Well said. Any person tweeted their policy guided by science and experts just made me puke. Anyone who have submitted a paper to journal for peer-reviewed know "experts" don't exist. A lot of time "experts" don't like what you said, regardless how novel it is, your work will be censored out.

Exhibit A: Alzheimer's original theory was recently debunked, but it was so deeply believed by medical experts that any alternative explanation would deemed impossible and not get published or funded. Wasting 15 years of life and money.

Instead of linking the 1970 Alzheimer paper, this report will be easier to understand:
The invention of a disease and the pursuit of one molecule | Why there's no cure for Alzheimer's | APM Reports

I have been publishing & reviewing academic papers as long as I could remember. There is different between "popular" science and real science. "Popular" belief isn't always right and data can be bias -- especially in medical field because we can't count humans like beans -- open it apart and put it back. A lot of observation is simply weeding out noise as much as you can. Also a lot of non-scientific factors can influence the noise especially when politics, money or ego being involved.