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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Troy Teslike has posted Q3 estimates on Twitter now of 130-150k. He tends to start with a cautious baseline and move it up as the quarter progresses. His process has been debated ad-nauseam, but I think a good starting point for future Nostradamuses. I think 150-170k is a reasonable guess for the quarter, assuming Model Y production is approaching 1000 a day now and MIC Model 3 is 4000+ per week now.
I may be too optimistic, but I think 150,000 is a good baseline. That translates to 10B plus in auto revenue and profits over 1 billion. The PE ratio of Tesla will look more like a conservative Apple the a high Amazon and 2000 will look pretty reasonable by the end of the year.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1278962542044381184?s=21
 
I left that out because of my own personal doubts of Tesla's autonomy efforts over the next 12 months. I'm quite aware TSLA would go to another level if I'm wrong.

Confession: 2020.24.6 has chipped away at some of my doubts.
Really didn't mean autonomy - I’m skeptical, too. Human-driven ridesharing is what ARK and others have been saying is coming soon (like later this year). That's just an app or maybe some additional onboard functionality (route/charging optimization, coordination with other rideshares, etc).
 
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Did you even look at his estimate history??

EbyUZn2XYAIIuHe

At the end of June, his estimate was increasing by ~418 per day... If that pattern held, by 7/2 It would have been 90,436 :D
 
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I voted 1st half of 2021, because it's the safe vote, and I'm quite confident it'll happen by then. However, I definitely can't rule out by the end of this year, because S&P 500 inclusion is a massive wild card. I just posted in the sentiment thread about this:



I can't say I think a SP of ~$3,000 this year is likely, but I can't rule it out either. The forced accumulation of tens of millions of shares and delta hedging effects from a massive options market in combination with a very price inelastic investor base is going to be very interesting to watch unfold.

I also wonder how much stock the TMC community owns in aggregate. I assume we're at least the size of a small institutional investor, perhaps a large one. I reckon we have at least a couple 100k shares, perhaps even 1M+ shares all together.

Robinhood is also up to 340.5k holders as of today, making it the 14th most popular stock on the app:

View attachment 559964
$tsla at this point is in the midst of going parabolic- when a stock goes parabolic all bets are off and the only way to attempt to handicap a sp is to start looking in terms of time element rather than specific price points
another way to look at this is in terms of market cap
$1208 = $ 224.18 B mkt cap
$1500 = $ 278.36 B
$2000 = $ 371.15 B
$2155 = $400B
$2696 = $ 500B
$3000 = $556.73B
another factor- higher the sp and mkt cap prior to announcement of SP500 inclusion, higher will be the % of SP500 and higher the buying to keep up
at the end of the day i totally expect sp to defy all expectations and shoot way higher than most expect and then have a major pull-back after all this is over
i have a few time frames in mind and i will change my thinking based on how the sp behaves from here on
 
$tsla at this point is in the midst of going parabolic- when a stock goes parabolic all bets are off and the only way to attempt to handicap a sp is to start looking in terms of time element rather than specific price points
another way to look at this is in terms of market cap
$1208 = $ 224.18 B mkt cap
$1500 = $ 278.36 B
$2000 = $ 371.15 B
$2155 = $400B
$2696 = $ 500B
$3000 = $556.73B
another factor- higher the sp and mkt cap prior to announcement of SP500 inclusion, higher will be the % of SP500 and higher the buying to keep up
at the end of the day i totally expect sp to defy all expectations and shoot way higher than most expect and then have a major pull-back after all this is over
i have a few time frames in mind and i will change my thinking based on how the sp behaves from here on

Just tell us when to sell and when to buy back in
 
We talk a lot about what price target to sell at here, but others talk about goals. I'm more of the latter now.

I ordered my first Tesla, P85 in December 2013, hardly any Superchargers in Europe and no real indication that Tesla would be around long enough to build it out, but the car was so amazing I couldn't resist - and thanks to the tax laws, it was as cheap as my previous Volvo on net cost.

Like most others that buy a Tesla, I started following the company and then wanted a part of it - bought 8 shares on 10th July 2015 at $270 each; of course, with some skin in the game, you start digging deeper.

In January 2016, we sold our house and started renting. I know this sounds a bit odd, but in Brussels, you pay around 12% taxes on a house purchase and my wife gets restless - we were moving every two years or so. While the prices rose, you could cover the taxes, but this occasion the market had been stagnant, so we essentially lost €75k and I decided it would be better to rent, allowing easy moving around, plus the rent was 20% lower than mortgage for nicer properties, so I persuaded wifey this was the way to go.

When we closed-out our mortgage, we got around €60k cash back at the beginning of February. This was the time of the big drop on Chinese growth worries, the SP halved to the $140's. I proposed to my wife we put it into $TSLA as it had dropped so low, after some persuasion she allowed me to buy 100 shares at $149 on 16th Feb. A week later and it was about $160, she saw some potential there and permitted me to use the rest of the money - 307 more shares & $165.93 - some regret there with the delay!

You have to know that we both have good jobs - wife is an official at the European Commission and I'm a freelance consultant at the same establishment - albeit a completely different area. Between us we earn very decent money, but three kids and bad spending habits meant we had zero savings and were living from payday to payday.

We had a dream of buying a summer-house in Denmark, in my wife's home town, so we said, let's see f we can get enough from our shares to do that. We also agreed between us that Tesla could go bust and we'd lose it all. For €60k that was OK. This type of money is nice to have, but it's not life-changing. I started adding shares when I had the money, mostly in the $200 range. The stock doubled with the M3 reveal, but then crashed back down to half and then at that moment, a summer-house came up for sale and we negotiated a good price, but it was twice our current shares value, we'd have had to get loans and mortgages, all sort of complex stuff (as it was in another country) and we got as far as almost signing for it when I got cold feet, realised I was giving the shares away and loaning us up-to-the eyeballs for 10 years. We discussed and backed-out of it, and agreed to wait until we had pure cash to buy something.

So fast-forward to today and we could buy that same house 4 times over. And that's where the goals come in, because the goals have changed. The new goal is to be able to buy a suitable, but very nice house in Brussels again, for cash. Although Brussels is expensive by Belgian standards, it's cheap compared to London, Paris, Copenhagen, etc. You can get a good, detached house in a top neighbourhood for around €1.5 million. So this is now one of those goals. But added to that, we'd still like the summerhouse, and could get something fantastic for €500k, really fantastic, or on the Dutch coast, or north France, lots of options. This leads is to a $2million cash-out target.

However, it's a bit more complex than that because aside our personal shares (which can be sold tax-free, BTW), I have my trading account in my company, which stands at $350k for the moment. I realised that if I could get this up to $1m and we no longer had to pay rent, I could stop the day job and just trade the capital for income, so that's also now a goal too.

So when would this be achieved? $3000k per share, I think, maybe a bit sooner. But it's not about the same price, it's about those goals I mentioned above. A home without mortgage or rent, a place in the country, and a retirement (of sorts) for me.

None of this would be possible, even thinkable without Tesla - their remarkable employees, their maverick CEO and the help of the short-sellers and BS merchants keeping the stock low for so long.

- house
- summer house
- early retirement

Sorry for the long post, just felt a need to share.

Edit: I realise I meant to type $4000 PT, not $3000 - so 3x from here-ish.
 
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this was a statement of opinion-not analysis
i suggest improving your vocabulary

Your opinion without analysis is noise, since it changes with the wind, despite your "22 years of reading charts."

$tsla at this point is in the midst of going parabolic- when a stock goes parabolic all bets are off and the only way to attempt to handicap a sp is to start looking in terms of time element rather than specific price points
another way to look at this is in terms of market cap
$1208 = $ 224.18 B mkt cap
$1500 = $ 278.36 B
$2000 = $ 371.15 B
$2155 = $400B
$2696 = $ 500B
$3000 = $556.73B
another factor- higher the sp and mkt cap prior to announcement of SP500 inclusion, higher will be the % of SP500 and higher the buying to keep up
at the end of the day i totally expect sp to defy all expectations and shoot way higher than most expect and then have a major pull-back after all this is over
i have a few time frames in mind and i will change my thinking based on how the sp behaves from here on

Ah, finally a nugget of analysis: rising market cap forces more S&P index fund buying in a virtuous cycle.

But the effect of this cycle on the share price is highly dependent on the availability of shares. So your analysis is missing crucial data. @Fact Checking (aka Tesla Facts) has been trying to figure out the likely share availability in his Twitter posts.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla
 
That just makes me want to split the stock 100:1 instead of 10:1.

Wall street can get bent. Go cry for more bailouts. I'd rather have more kids who buy a few shares with their lemonade stand money because they think the cars are cool than cater more to NYC parasites/cronys.

I am generally against stock splits. If wallstreet cares about 1 cent trading fee per share, it is probably due to HFT bots.

What I care more about are options. At $1000 share price, 1 option has the potential implication of $100 000 of cash if you get assigned. As stock price increase, there are less incentive to play options. Not sure how Market Maker sees it. But I'd actually prefer it if ppl trade the actual stock with fractional shares as it gives more clear picture of buying and selling pressure. Who knows, maybe we will invent fractional options in the future, but so far we haven't done so even with BRK.A at its insane price.
 
I am generally against stock splits. If wallstreet cares about 1 cent trading fee per share, it is probably due to HFT bots.

What I care more about are options. At $1000 share price, 1 option has the potential implication of $100 000 of cash if you get assigned. As stock price increase, there are less incentive to play options. Not sure how Market Maker sees it. But I'd actually prefer it if ppl trade the actual stock with fractional shares as it gives more clear picture of buying and selling pressure. Who knows, maybe we will invent fractional options in the future, but so far we haven't done so even with BRK.A at its insane price.

I don’t know if a stock split is necessarily good for option buyers and sellers. In a 10 for 1 split you’ll have to pay 10 times as many option fees for the same trade. I’m currently selling or buying 10 options at the same time and not really looking forward to paying 100 fees (although there are some discounts with higher numbers)
 
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