Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Roth IRA for Estate Planning - Good but not Great anymore
...In 2017, with the tax law changes, one negative change was to eliminate the second lifetime tax free growth, so that now it is ten years after the death of the second spouse with no RMD (assuming you make your spouse the first beneficiary of your Roth).

Could you explain the tax change a little more please? What do you mean "second lifetime"? Who exactly does this affect and when?

Thanks!

 

[S3XY]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278726408966152192



This quote shows once again Elon and Tesla are focused on the problems that matter.

My guess is this is as hard as landing a rocket on a drone ship.

I posted some videos in the Battery Day thread, my impressions where:-

• LiOH is needed for high nickel batteries
• One known source of LiOH comes from hard rock mined in Australia and processed in China.
• Lithium Carbonate (Li2CO3) seems to be easier to make with multiple sources.
• I'm not sure if there is more than one source of LiOH.
• Mining in the US and shipping to China for processing doesn't make a lot of sense.

Tesla may or may not say something about this at Battery Day, but my hunch is they might have a quiet R&D project going, this is a hard problem, but an important problem, the kind of problem they usually take on.

If they are doing R&D this is possibly a 5-7 year project, I doubt they will be demonstrating anything in this area at Battery Day.

Any on the moon?

 

[tinm]

If I had to guess at stock price movements:

Today - $1208
Pre ER (20th July) - $1300
Post ER (30th July) - $1400
Pre S&P announcement (14th August) - $1500
Post S&P announcement (~16 August) - $1600
6 days later (22 August) - Spike to $10k (could last seconds or days) - market cap>AMZN@$1.4Tn
7 days later (23 August) - $5000
15 days later (31 August) - $2500 (I don't expect funds to meet the 7 day requirement)
Pre battery day (14th Sep) - $2000
Post battery day (16th Sep) - $2200
Post P&D (3rd Oct) - $2500
Post ER (1st Nov) - $2700 ($500Bn market cap Vs Facebook at $665)

How are Bailie Gifford for example structured? Do they have limit orders in place where the traders are authorised to sell above? Or would they hold an emergency board meeting to authorise selling?

Who is ready for the rollercoaster of your lives?

That all sounds swell but the macro situation, ranging from the vicissitudes of Individual-1 to the inevitabilities of COVID-19 suggest that the “party” which is the stock market could get “shut down” at any time, taking everything down with it.

Hope for the best—definitely, but might wanna at least have plan in place for the worst.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Discover...
Inquire...
Investigate...
Experience...
Believe...
Buy...
Hold...

My investment strategy.

Happy July 4th fellow revolutionaries.

Dan

 

[ZeApelido]

Meanwhile, the global cooling brought on by industries shutting down has resulted in one of the coldest summer in Vancouver with rain all the time. What used to be months of smog filled burning days is now sunless rain.

Could be a fluke, but the coincidence is too convenient.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

That all sounds swell but the macro situation, ranging from the vicissitudes of Individual-1 to the inevitabilities of COVID-19 suggest that the “party” which is the stock market could get “shut down” at any time, taking everything down with it.

Hope for the best—definitely, but might wanna at least have plan in place for the worst.

The exuberance that has taken over this thread the last few days is a bit worrying. Predictions of $2000 to $3000 for the end of the month and even peaks of $10,000 are the kind of uberbullishness that can easily end in tears, like we've seen many times over the last ten years. Let's stay grounded. There's a lot that can go wrong, not necessarily for Tesla but in the world, so don't bet the farm on such predictions. The runup of 250 points over the last week is probably mainly the result of funds, private investors, speculators and shorties anticipating profitability and S&P 500-inclusion. A lot of good news has already been baked in.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Meanwhile, the global cooling brought on by industries shutting down has resulted in one of the coldest summer in Vancouver with rain all the time. What used to be months of smog filled burning days is now sunless rain.

Could be a fluke, but the coincidence is too convenient.

What global cooling?(!) I mean ...Really?(!)

Earth has hottest May on record, with 2020 on track to be one of the top 10 warmest years

 

[scaesare]

Short Elon's Corporation
Secure Elon's Credit
Sell Elon's Capital

Anyway, Elon doesn't even have a:
View attachment 559974
as far as I know.

Maybe he does and that is why he needs Ambien to suck on.

Or does he?

 

[elasalle]

Dana apparently got the idea for the article from this thread, which has some familiar names in it:

Teslanaires

Wow.

Must be a few who sold with SEC, Tweets etc though ...

 

[The Accountant]

The exuberance that has taken over this thread the last few days is a bit worrying. Predictions of $2000 to $3000 for the end of the month and even peaks of $10,000 are the kind of uberbullishness that can easily end in tears, like we've seen many times over the last ten years. Let's stay grounded. There's a lot that can go wrong, not necessarily for Tesla but in the world, so don't bet the farm on such predictions. The runup of 250 points over the last week is probably mainly the result of funds, private investors, speculators and shorties anticipating profitability and S&P-inclusion. A lot of good news has already been baked in.

I understand your caution and it's fair. However, your comment that a lot of the good news has already been baked in may not be correct.
Two items that may not in the current $1,208 price are:

- S&P Inclusion: We don't know if the forced buying dirves the SP higher. It may or may not. I think it does drive it higher.
- Q3 & Q4 - These are the "Prove It" quarters. Stock has done well because small profitable quarters during COVID are impressive. But if Tesla delivers 150k to 170k autos in Q3 and Q4, the financials will be explosive. We could see $600m in GAAP income and $600m in Free Cash Flow each quarter. I don't think that is fully baked in.

 

[AlMc]

Dana apparently got the idea for the article from this thread, which has some familiar names in it:

Teslanaires

Wow, thanks for the trip down 'memory lane'. Sleephead, CapOpressor, Kevin 99, Bonnie et al. I was a 'newbie' back then and they all helped me realize Tesla's potential.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I understand your caution and it's fair. However, your comment that a lot of the good news has already been baked in may not be correct.
Two items that may not in the current $1,208 price are:

- S&P Inclusion: We don't know if the forced buying dirves the SP higher. It may or may not. I think it does drive it higher.
- Q3 & Q4 - These are the "Prove It" quarters. Stock has done well becasue small profitable quarters during COVID is impressive. But if Tesla delivers 150k to 170k autos in Q3 and Q4, the financials will be explosive. We could see $600m in GAAP income and $600m in Free Cash Flow each quarter. I don't think that is fully baked in.

- S&P inclusion: I'm not so sure about the forced buying. Those index funds are not dumb, they see it coming just like us and don't want to get trampled in a stampede. They probably have ways to buy in before the inclusion is official (through third parties, splitting the difference).

- Q3 & Q4: $600m in GAAP income is comparable to what a growth stock like NFLX does per quarter. And they are curently valued at $209 billion, less than Tesla's $224 billion.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Wow, thanks for the trip down 'memory lane'. Sleephead, CapOpressor, Kevin 99, Bonnie et al. I was a 'newbie' back then and they all helped me realize Tesla's potential.

You are one of the few survivors of that thread. I guess TSLA investing (and discussing it) takes a toll

 

[S3XY]

His time has come to an end. Lil Wayne Cat in the house!

Is it wrong if I find it slightly arousing?

 

[Buckminster]

A Master Class in Graphene by the Limiting Factor

Is there nothing Graphene can't improve? Great video. I came across this one - lubricant for you bicycle.
Graphene-boosted (and very long-lasting?) bike lube costs almost $150

 

[goinfraftw]

Dana apparently got the idea for the article from this thread, which has some familiar names in it:

Teslanaires

Thank you. Personally, some really good lessons in there for me!

 

[dc_h]

Meanwhile, the global cooling brought on by industries shutting down has resulted in one of the coldest summer in Vancouver with rain all the time. What used to be months of smog filled burning days is now sunless rain.

Could be a fluke, but the coincidence is too convenient.

On track for about our hottest summer ever in the Midwest. 90’s for the next few weeks is likely. Arctic circle also in heatwave. Local weather is subject to independent variables, but overall it’s a hot year. Looking forward to more EV solar and wind and clean skies all the time.

 

[chronopublish]

You are one of the few survivors of that thread. I guess TSLA investing (and discussing it) takes a toll

I’ve been here the whole time, but almost never post. It’s been interesting watching people come and go. I’m especially fascinated by the bulls who took their 50-200% gains, sold everything and vanished forever. I wonder how they’re doing now.

My IPO shares are doing okay.

 

[EinSV]

You are one of the few survivors of that thread. I guess TSLA investing (and discussing it) takes a toll

I counted a couple dozen members who still post at least occasionally on this thread, and many others still participate elsewhere on TMC or other Tesla social media. Seems to be a fair bit of staying power from the early TMC investors, although newer members tend to be more active than the long-timers.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I believe that when selling on a regular basis, one should use the opposite strategy to dollar cost averaging. One should sell a fixed number of shares per period (month, week, etc) rather than a fixed dollar amount (like one does in buying). That way you get more money when the price is high and less money when the price is low. At the end of the day you will have more money and more shares than you would if you sold the same dollar amount every time. This works best (as does dollar cost averaging when buying) when the share price fluctuates a lot, like TSLA. Please correct if this is wrong.

@astrotoy, we are on the same page. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested (in my case disinvested for retirement) across periodic purchases (once annually in my case) of a target asset in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase price. In otherwords, I'm not cashing out to to buy an island.