Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

BUT it can also change lanes on its own! That’s innovation right there.

Actually, no. You have to tell it to change lanes. And then, yes, it can cross the line and find the next lane.

 

[ZeApelido]

Announcement from where....your moms basement?

That's silly. Its California I can't afford a basement until $3000

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Aug 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "S&P Watch Continues as MMs Shrink"

Traded: $8,961,736,926.69 ($8.96 B)
Volume: 5,998,529
VWAP: $1,493.99

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.70%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $277.601B / $179.003B = 155.08%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $278.40B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $166.36B
Nota Bene: Elon's CEO comp. plan 2nd tranche vested July 24, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 46.8% (46th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 38.1% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.74% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Groundhog Whack-a-Mole"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Wonder how much it will change by the time it comes off the line

Probably a better question would be WHEN will it come off the line. I know they say 2021 but for some silly reason, I have my doubts. This is all about creating the impression in viewers mind that when pure EV's are ready for consumers, their favorite brands will be there with amazing choices. Pretty sure this is not released until AT LEAST 2022 (if ever in significant volume).

 

[AlMc]

A family of funds could not do that because it would be illegal (fraud). Each fund in a family has a different set of shareholders. This means when one fund sells shares to another, they must do it at current market values (not at a "small profit" and call it good).

I imagine a special purpose hedge fund could be legally created to fulfill the stated purpose but there is a problem. Who would invest in it when it's stated purpose was to sell shares at below market value to index funds?

Ok, so they sell at 'current market value' as soon as the SP committee tells them before it is generally announced and they get it for a better price than having to bid in any speculative market flair up. Not 'fraud' in that scenario. Win/win

 

[Nocturnal]

My guess is that @Lycanthrope reference to the 'plan' management would have pertains to a large family of funds: EX; Vanguard, where one or more of their non index funds buy up TSLA slowly so they have enough shares to sell ( ostensibly at a small profit) to their 'brother' Index funds that will need them.

I can find no reason that management of a family of funds could not do this.

But why would they? When I buy a Vanguard SP500 fund I'm expecting it to match the index, minus their tiny fee. If I want something actively managed I buy their windsor funds etc. The scenario you mention adds increased risk with no extra odds of profit to their managed fund only to potentially increase the return in the passive fund (which buyers are oblivious to).

Could it be that passive investing has become too large of a percent of the market and thus it is becoming impractical to do things the way they have always done?.

That is my thesis. I believe that because investors have access to insane levels of information compared to what we could access just 10 years ago, passive investing is headed to irrelevancy, despite years of growth.

 

[FrankSG]

Joining the S&P 500 may not be as big a boon as often assumed
New research suggests that the share-price premium for entering Wall Street’s flagship index isn’t what it used to be

Summary: TFA pours cold water on the idea that S&P inclusion will boost TSLA, citing an NBER working paper which is available online for the sum of five United States dollars:

NBER Working Paper No. 27593
Benjamin Bennett, René M. Stulz, Zexi Wang
Does Joining the S&P 500 Index Hurt Firms?

The article speculates about increased passive ownership undermining management and governance. Maybe. I think it could be explained in other ways — for example by the market pricing in and speculating on index inclusion.

These types of research are based on the average S&P 500 inclusion, which most often means a simple move from the S&P 400 into the S&P 500.

Tesla isn't just an outlier, it's the outlier of outliers. I don't know of any S&P 500 inclusion that was similar to TSLA's upcoming in terms of:

• Skipped the S&P 600 and S&P 400
• Sheer size
• Amount of the float locked up in the hands of market makers delta hedging
• Large short interest
• Massive future potential, differences of opinion with regards to the true value of the company, and the amount of shareholders with sky high price targets who won't consider selling any time soon
• Amount of hype, trading, and speculating around the stock

Although I am a little surprised the stock's been so flat over the past 2 weeks since earnings, and there isn't a lot front-running and active funds buying going on right now, everything is still in place for a pretty wild ride throughout TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion.

 

[Nocturnal]

Lyriq design is better than I expected. Looks like a Rivian. Name is awkward I guess but at least it's not just E-(insert old brand name here). The sliding charging door is stupid. Specs are just ok, will be pretty crap in 2022 when this comes out.

But as some of us are inclined to believe, advertising spent on legacy EVs will help boost Tesla as well.

At least 4 of the 10 hangars in the row where my Bonanza lives have Teslas.

Seems like an ideal car to store at the airport or marina while out enjoying the toy. Just plug it in and it's full when you get back. No muss no fuss. I don't own an airplane or a boat though so just speculating.

 

[vikings123]

S&P 500 inclusion could happen at anytime IMO most the likely day is a Friday, with an announcement after hours. Reason - they don't want a sudden and dramatic market reaction.

IMO there is no way to avoid a dramatic market reaction. I think the funds usually buy during regular hours so by the time market opens on Monday the stock would have already gone parabolic.

 

[FrankSG]

Dear God! GM is so screwed. More than 10 years behind and getting worse.

Good thing I didn't watch this live. I would've probably killed myself having to watch through 10 minutes of GM/Cadillac advertising at the start.

And now that I skipped through the 10+ minute commercial, the rest is half an hour of rehearsed promotional talk disguised as a Q&A with 'real' questions from 'real' people?

Ok, GM...

 

[woodisgood]

These types of research are based on the average S&P 500 inclusion, which most often means a simple move from the S&P 400 into the S&P 500.

Tesla isn't just an outlier, it's the outlier of outliers. I don't know of any S&P 500 inclusion that was similar to TSLA's upcoming in terms of:

• Skipped the S&P 600 and S&P 400
• Sheer size
• Amount of the float locked up in the hands of market makers delta hedging
• Large short interest
• Massive future potential, differences of opinion with regards to the true value of the company, and the amount of shareholders with sky high price targets who won't consider selling any time soon
• Amount of hype, trading, and speculating around the stock

Although I am a little surprised the stock's been so flat over the past 2 weeks since earnings, and there isn't a lot front-running and active funds buying going on right now, everything is still in place for a pretty wild ride throughout TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion.

I can’t bring myself to believe the rule-makers aren’t going to find a “creative solution” to the unicorn checkmate.

 

[Nocturnal]

Question, so let's say inclusion happens and the stock jumps big time. I know most of us are pretty solid long term holders, but is there a price where you guys will start peeling shares off to bank gains and/or buy back in once it settles back down?

Good thing I didn't watch this live. I would've probably killed myself having to watch through 10 minutes of GM/Cadillac advertising at the start.

And now that I skipped through the 10+ minute commercial, the rest is half an hour of rehearsed promotional talk disguised as a Q&A with 'real' questions from 'real' people?

Ok, GM...

GM loves "real people" lol. JDPowah

I can’t bring myself to believe the rule-makers aren’t going to find a “creative solution” to the unicorn checkmate.

They have probably been asking Elon to do an offering and he probably told them to pack sand.

 

[FrankSG]

I can’t bring myself to believe the rule-makers aren’t going to find a “creative solution” to the unicorn checkmate.

What entity/entities specifically are you referring to here with "rule-makers"?

 

[FrankSG]

Question, so let's say inclusion happens and the stock jumps big time. I know most of us are pretty solid long term holders, but is there a price where you guys will start peeling shares off to bank gains and/or buy back in once it settles back down?


GM loves "real people" lol.

I'll probably deleverage and convert all my options to shares around $2,500, give or take a few $100.

I won't divest at all from TSLA for less than $5,000 in the next few months (barring something crazy), although I might decide to convert a small portion of stock to going short cash covered PUTs, if options premiums are high and I really think the stock is unlikely to run up further in the short term.

Even above $5,000, I can't see myself divesting much at this point in time. Stock would really have to be $10,000+ in the next couple of months before I'd consider divesting 10%+. Considering the extreme unlikelihood of this happening, I don't see myself divesting at all in the short term.

 

[ggr]

80 or so postings moved to What got you investing in Tesla (@Jackl1956 thread). Please post responses there. I will make it sticky, temporarily, so people realize it exists, but one of us will unstick it in a few days.
--Fairy Modfather.

 

[soundart2]

Rebought the calls I sold this AM. Gonna keep doing this buy right before close and sell at open if no announcement strategy till inclusion is announced.

Interesting idea. Curious how your daily results have been? Are you suffering small losses each time with the idea the big explosion will compensate (and then some)? What kind of timeframe are you using? Weeklies?

 

[woodisgood]

What entity/entities specifically are you referring to here with "rule-makers"?

S&P committee, which in my mind (perhaps incorrectly but I doubt it) is tightly intertwined, and happy to coordinate, with large banks/funds.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Who would buy a car called the Cadillac Lyriq??? Most would avoid it because it’s a Cadillac, the rest because it’s called Lyriq. I mean seriously???

I think it's bc the Marketing group... the K sound sells. Coke's secret. So Lyriq, a duh.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Question, so let's say inclusion happens and the stock jumps big time. I know most of us are pretty solid long term holders, but is there a price where you guys will start peeling shares off to bank gains and/or buy back in once it settles back down?


GM loves "real people" lol. JDPowah

They have probably been asking Elon to do an offering and he probably told them to pack sand.

@$2k...i will open a nice bottle of Yamazaki 18 and drink a few drams
@$3k...i will open a nice bottle of Yamazaki 25 and drink a few drams
@$5k....i will open a nice bottle of Yamazaki 35 and drink a few drams

Oh....i will peel back maybe 3-5 shares when it hits $10k

 

[FrankSG]

S&P committee, which in my mind (perhaps incorrectly but I doubt it) is tightly intertwined, and happy to coordinate, with large banks/funds.

What does the S&P committee have to gain by doing this? They only care about what TSLA will do after inclusion, so if they announce inclusion this Friday, they'd prefer TSLA not to run up too much in the few days between announcement and inclusion, and not drop much in the weeks/months following inclusion.

Even in a worst case scenario where TSLA is included and goes to 0 the day after inclusion, the S&P 500 would only drop 1%. This sucks, but a 1% drop is not the end of the world for them.

Realistically, we're talking about something like trying to include TSLA at $1,500 and have it go to $2,000 after, rather than including it at $2,500 and having it to drop $2,000. Sure, there's some incentive, but is the S&P 500 really going to lose prestige if the latter happens instead of the former? I don't think so, and I doubt this is enough incentive for the S&P committee to engage in shady activity, and potentially commit fraud.