Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

But I can't see CATL continuing to scale LFP production to meet Teslas long term production needs. Especially with SR+ constitutuing nearly half of Model 3 production. Once Tesla has scaled 4680 production facilities they will likely introduce their own LFP cathodes in 4680 cells for shorter range products. Possibly as early as sometime in 2022.

On bty day, Tesla publicly commited to purchasing 100 GWh from its bty suppliers in 2022. Right now, Tesla purchases about ~40% that amnt from Panasonic and LG combined, with Pana. committed to providing an additional ~3.5GWh with the new line in Spark, NV.

The purchase plan from CATL for LPG packs might be on the order of ~50 GWh, depending on on the mix that MiC Model Y uses for battery packs.

I don't think Tesla builds their new cells in China first, especially with so many local suppliers. I think Germany and Austin, TX are the first places we'll see seriously large volume production of the 4680/RR cells.

Tesla's 2022 bty cell production plan maybe something like 10 GWh in Fremont for S/X/R, 37.5 GWh in Berlin for 500K Model Y x 75 KWh each, and 52.5 GWh in Austin for some mix of Model Y, Semi, and Cybertruck. High nickel, high energy to start, per Elon. NMC in Berlin + a mix in Austin for Model Y (NMC) and Semi/Cybertruck (High Nickel). That's mostly just a chemistry change, so the bty lines should be relatively easy to adapt.

TL;dr Fun Times!

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Tesla seems to be the only company capable of redesigning products and technology from scratch because they don’t have big, unmovable, permanent assembly lines that administration refuses to change.
Giga press
Battery design
Steel frame
Etc

Legacy companies don’t have to implement any new changed because the same old same old works just fine for them.

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1310157418349965315?s=20

DEVON, WPX ARE IN TALKS TO MERGE
DEVON, WPX DISCUSS ALL-STOCK DEAL
DEVON, WPX HAVE COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF ABOUT $6B ENERGY-COMPANY
TIE-UP COULD BE FINALIZED THIS WEEK

Devon is a SP500 company, WPX used to be SP500 until 2014 but is now in the SP400.

Relevant to potential TSLA SP500 inclusion as this merger will likely cause a spot to open in SP400 that could be filled by a company relegated from SP500.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Dave Lee just made me believe 99% certitude than Elon is sandbagging to avoid Osborne effect

In 2023, the World will radically different

There will be more change in 3 years in automotive industry than in the last century

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 592631

Elon....you sly guy!!!

This is huge. How far a stretch of the imagination would it be to say Tesla used the new 4680 cells in the Plaid Model S tracking 1:30.3 at Laguna Seca?

 

[Pezpunk]

This is huge. How far a stretch of the imagination would it be to say Tesla used the new 4680 cells in the Plaid Model S tracking 1:30.3 at Laguna Seca?

they have an assembly line producing these cells up and running. visitors on battery day saw it first-hand. the problem for scaling production wasnt that the batteries didnt work, it was that yields were too low -- meaning too high a percentage of defective batteries to ramp up to Y/3 levels.

so they've been churning out working 4680 batteries for months. i guarantee they're not just chucking them in the trash. id be shocked if the plaid S at laguna seca wasnt using the new form factor.

 

[RobbyJ]

This is huge. How far a stretch of the imagination would it be to say Tesla used the new 4680 cells in the Plaid Model S tracking 1:30.3 at Laguna Seca?

Don't mean to be rude, but this was a given for me quite a while already. Plaid testing at the nurnburgring had nothi g to do with bragging rights related to the taycan. Those plaid runs at nurnburg were roadrunner cells and pack performance tests. And also plaid drivetrain tests of course

 

[Pezpunk]

even double-stacked 18650s would have been overheating halfway through the nurburgring lap.

 

[Boomer19]

Thanks Elon. I have been arguing about this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/s_padival/status/1309055897919016962?s=21
View attachment 592688

Further, I don’t think suppliers will switch over to the new format. It just doesn’t make business sense. Pana only recently started making a profit on their multi billion $ Giga 1 investment. Why would they spend capex now only to see Tesla making all of their own cells in a couple of years time.

Voicing this because I think it is important for investors to set their expectations clearly. Otherwise, I would never discuss these things in public and be seen as a Debbie Downer.

yes, equally important to not get too far ahead of ourselves here.

 

[Singuy]

Dave Lee just made me believe 99% certitude than Elon is sandbagging to avoid Osborne effect

In 2023, the World will radically different

There will be more change in 3 years in automotive industry than in the last century

Love how everyone is helping Tesla osbourne by trying to push the idea that Tesla was trying to avoid osbourning.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Disclaimer: This is just my humble opinion

* The first 4680 cells from the Kato road line will go to the Semi (100% confidence)
* Then any remaining capacity will go to Cybertruck & Plaid Model S (50/50 confidence)
* Berlin Model Y gets its own line in late 2021
* Fremont X,3,Y & Austin Y continue to get Giga 1 Pana 2170 cells until Tesla ramps up. Probably in 2022. My Twitter friend Louis tells me Pana contract expires in June 2023
* Standard Range+ Model 3 and Ys in EU, China, Hong Kong, Australia & China will be CATL supplied Lithium Iron Phosphate prismatic cells until such time Tesla can make their own (and have enough for $25k small car).

If Pana were to use Tesla Battery day tech, they will have to make additional investments plus write down the value of their 18650 lines in Giga 1, one of which was commissioned only recently

I agree with everything here except Austin Y, which should be 4680 like Berlin. I can’t imagine Elon building a brand new factory without the new battery tech. All new construction will be focused on 4680 imo.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don't mean to be rude, but this was a given for me quite a while already. Plaid testing at the Nürburgring had nothing to do with bragging rights related to the taycan. Those plaid runs at nurnburg were roadrunner cells and pack performance tests. And also plaid drivetrain tests of course

Tri-motor Plaid powertrain has existed since at least the Roadster reveal, which was Nov 2017 (almost 3 yrs ago). Roadrunner batteries almost certainly did not exist yet back then.

The Plaid prototype demonstrated at the Nürburgring in Sep 2019 was limited to 500 kW motor power. Since we now know the current Plaid prototype has 820 kW (1,100 hp), the 2019 prototype Plaid S more likely had power limitations from the old battery pack, the 18650 100 kWh pack.

We also know that the Summer 2019 Plaid S spotted at the Nürburgring was a returned Customer car repurposed for the development exercise. So less and less likely to have the cast aluminum structural bty tray that was highlighted at bty day. IMHO, this is the primary reason for the delay.

Last year, Elon tweeted that 'Plaid was getting too complicated' and they would go with a simplified version for production in Fall 2020. That will not happen. The new tech must be too good to ignore, too much of a step change not to have it for Plaid. Finally, with Lucid coming too market eventually, Tesla needed to step up with a tad more 'oomph' for Plaid.

Imma say 1.9 sec 0-60 mph, 8.9 sec qtr mi, and 200+ mph top speed gets that done. Ooh, did I mention 520 miles rge? Or 7 seats?

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

Imma say 1.9 sec 0-60 mph, 8.9 sec qtr mi, and 200+ mph top speed gets that done. Ooh, did I mention 520 miles rge? Or 7 seats?

Cheers!

And a Porsche 918-equaling track time. All with the fuel cost equal to a car that gets 70 mpg.

 

[UncaNed]

It just occurred to me that the survival rate of aircraft accidents will go up significantly when jet fuel is eliminated from the equation. Some of our resident aviation experts can disabuse me of this notion, but I believe most accidents occur at landing and take off and it’s the burning jet fuel that causes the most damage. I know batteries burn, but usually not instantaneously, thus allowing for precious minutes for survivors to evacuate. I hope this is another way Tesla’s battery innovations can benefit society.

Especially regarding those on the ground. Remember 9/11? No Jet fuel would have been very different.

 

[Khamul]

Fact Checking on Twitter:

From 2026 Belgium will only allow electric cars for corporate car purchases.

 

[Tslynk67]

Just spotted this on CNBS, missed Colin's comments if they were published elsewhere: Top analysts recommend stocks like Alibaba and AutoZone amid the September sell-off

The article covers several stocks, here's the extract about Tesla. The particularly interesting part is this: Plus Tesla reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates.

Tesla
Tesla has just held its much-hyped Battery Day event. And while limited details may have frustrated some (shares dropped 7% in Tuesday’s after-hours trading), top Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch liked what he heard.

He reiterated his buy rating on the controversial electric vehicle stock on September 23, and stuck to his $451 stock price forecast (19% upside potential).

TSLA outlined a robust reimagining of battery design, manufacturing, and performance including targeting a $25K vehicle in three years and 20x capacity increase by 2030, the analyst told investors.

“We are impressed with the ambition of the endeavor and believe this roadmap charts ongoing technology and cost leadership for TSLA enabling sales into the entire LDV market” Rusch wrote. Plus Tesla reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates.

As a result, Rusch recommends buying on any weakness — arguing that TSLA could be a transformational technology company capable of delivering outsized returns.

“We believe the company’s execution on Model 3 and Y volumes in the medium term and cost reduction, largely from a battery perspective, are critical to realizing positive incremental operating margin and cash flow necessary to support sustainable profitability” he explained.

A top 100 analyst on TipRanks, Rusch boasts a 29.4% average return per rating.

 

[Christine69420]

Especially regarding those on the ground. Remember 9/11? No Jet fuel would have been very different.

I agree.

I'm not sure hydrogen planes would have been much different though. Or different in the other direction?

 

[Mo City]

New Tera Texas land.

https://twitter.com/polareclipse1/status/1310057107534876672?s=19

 

[phantasms]

Imma say 1.9 sec 0-60 mph, 8.9 sec qtr mi, and 200+ mph top speed gets that done. Ooh, did I mention 520 miles rge? Or 7 seats?

Cheers!

I fully intend to do the Cannonball run route [NY to CA] and smash the EV cross country record when this car comes out. Alex Roy is a person friend. Maybe he’ll be a good co-pilot. lol

 

[Paul_SF]

Is it me or it seems that everyone talks about batteries being used in cars only?

Tesla has a a few other products that use a lot of batteries and the 2170 is actually great for those?

Finally they will be able to scale that Energy side that many are not calculating in their valuations of Tesla?

“A Powerwall for you, and you, and you, and you ...”