Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Well. I'm very happy today. I got my Starlink and hooked it up(so easy)Got 160 Mbs/second. Now I'm rebooting it which may take 2 hours since it needs to upgrade. 15 times faster than our old internet. Since TSLA was down I relinquished some T for TSLA at 624. I stopped paying attention to the news long ago. Cost average buying for me.

Congrats! I have SL on order. I was surprised I qualified as we’re in a pretty densely populated suburb.

But 5G wireless internet is coming, and the price undercuts SL substantially for equivalent speed. Some decisions lie ahead.

Edit: the good news is we dump Comcast/Xfinity either way.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1391899092666572800

Wotta guy.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am starting an aid group called Greendayholics Anonymous for anyone who need help after a day like this.

The manthra of the group is « We are powerless, the +20% saviour awaits ».

Feel free to join the group and invite friends, the reunion is here after every red day at close.

To earn your 7 days chip you need to avoid looking at the stock price for 7 days straight, a feat no member has achieved, yet.

 

[henchman24]

I must admit, like others this has been severely painful to experience. I was on the wrong side of leverage when the drop began in late January. I am now severely stressed out by some Jan 22 700calls that I bought on margin back in November. Just a few weeks ago 700 by January would have seemed safe...now I am not so sure...

I’ve resisted margin right until this past quarter’s deliveries came in. I thought it would be a sure bet… boy I was wrong! I personally think this has to break sometime before next January, but I’ve obviously been wrong before. I have 2023s ranging from Jan to June and from 600-870 strikes. I do feel pretty good about those. Not as good as I felt a month ago or 3 months ago… but I think those will be safe.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'll wait. The MA(200) is in play now that its value has risen well above the Mar 5, 2021 SP dip. We've only visited the MA(200) twice since Wed, Oct 23, 2019 (hours before Q3 Earnings), and again on Mar 18, 2020 (during the Alameda/covid panik).

Today, the MA(200) is 6.4x where it was the last time we visited the 200-day moving average. Here's what happened in the following month: (Mar-Apr 2020) N.B. SP's shown are pre-split, MA(200) is in BLUE which is 80.08 split-adjusted).

View attachment 661156

Today the MA(200) is 578 or 7.2x where it was last visit. We'll be fine. HODL'ing.

Cheers!

I mean really.....the 200 MA has to hold. If it were to break under that, we'd be looking at 500 or lower by Q2 earnings, meaning Tesla's P/E would be 500 or lower and then cut in half, if not more, by Q2 earnings. So then you're looking at a P/E of 200-250....that would drop to 100 or possibly even sub 100 P/E by Q3 earnings. I just don't see Wall St smart money missing that P/E dynamic shift. I have to imagine they'll be in front of that and keep Tesla's P/E in the 300-500 range going forward....given Tesla's earning growth over the next couple of years.

 

[dm28997]

Wow. On my Starlink after rebooting I am now getting 250 Mbps. Unreal. Everything works like a Tesla. Fast and safe.

 

[Unpilot]

I am starting an aid group called Greendayholics Anonymous for anyone who need help after a day like this.

The manthra of the group is « We are powerless, the +20% saviour awaits ».

Feel free to join the group and invite friends, the reunion is here after every red day at close.

To earn your 7 days chip you need to avoid looking at the stock price for 7 days straight, a feat not member has achieved, yet.

Change that to 7 minutes and you will have a winner...won't be me..but you will have a winner.

 

[henchman24]

I mean really.....the 200 MA has to hold. If it were to break under that, we'd be looking at 500 or lower by Q2 earnings, meaning Tesla's P/E would be 500 or lower and then cut in half, if not more, by Q2 earnings. So then you're looking at a P/E of 200-250....that would drop to 100 or possibly even sub 100 P/E by Q3 earnings. I just don't see Wall St smart money missing that P/E dynamic shift. I have to imagine they'll be in front of that and keep Tesla's P/E in the 300-500 range going forward....given Tesla's earning growth over the next couple of years.

Agreed… I think Wall Street, even if 200 ma doesn’t hold, will front run earnings. If a swap like that happened it would cause such a dramatic run and result in a major squeeze. I think they’d ideally want to keeps Tesla between 550-650 until earnings. Then there is movement either way depending on the results. If profits disappoint, it can drop further. If they surpass it can run 30+% instead of 50+%.

 

[bigsmooth125]

I think this is a good time for folks on this forum to reflect on the value, or lack thereof, that this forum has provided, particularly this year. I've been an infrequent poster/mostly lurker since 2012 when I bought my first shares at around $5. I survived the tough times, frequently with the help of the steadfast optimists on this board, and last year blasted through my "retirement number" at a relatively young age. Early this year the TSLA share price just seemed a bit too frothy so I sold almost all my shares, in part because the share price seemed to price in near-perfect execution by Tesla. And, while Tesla/Elon have accomplished amazing things, one thing that is clear is that Tesla/Elon are not perfect and will often fall short, particularly with timelines.

Here's my point: how many posts on this forum have predicted further stratospheric SP movements this year vs. how many posts have predicted this big drop? How many negative opinions have been downvoted simply because they were negative? Exactly. If you want positive, supportive opinions, this forum is great. If you want intelligent debate that could give you a heads up that a SP drop is possible and that could help you save or even make money, this forum is not the place to visit, especially if short-term drops will significantly affect you.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Here's my point: how many posts on this forum have predicted further stratospheric SP movements this year vs. how many posts have predicted this big drop? How many negative opinions have been downvoted simply because they were negative? Exactly. If you want positive, supportive opinions, this forum is great. If you want intelligent debate that could give you a heads up that a SP drop is possible and that could help you save or even make money, this forum is not the place to visit, especially if short-term drops will significantly affect you.

It’s an echo chamber enabled by moderators
I mentioned the Tesla Solar Roof lawsuit & it gets deleted for ‘FUD’
Seems some are upset that the TSLA automated teller isn’t functioning as they were lead to believe

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agreed… I think Wall Street, even if 200 ma doesn’t hold, will front run earnings. If a swap like that happened it would cause such a dramatic run and result in a major squeeze. I think they’d ideally want to keeps Tesla between 550-650 until earnings. Then there is movement either way depending on the results. If profits disappoint, it can drop further. If they surpass it can run 30+% instead of 50+%.

While Q1 earnings were very deceptive (in a good way), I just find it impossible that the big boys do not understand what Tesla's true earnings were on Q1 and how that translates to Q2, Q3, and Q4. If they do understand, then they know, as you mentioned, that Q2 is the last chance to get in at these price levels.

Tesla's P/E SHOULD be even lower than 630 today if it wasn't for the one time S/X costs and the additional Elon pay package. What Q1 did do is give us a very clear understanding how much earnings potential Tesla has with just the 3/Y. Elon's pay package will be ending soon and the S/X will get back to full production......Then add in 4 price increases in the past 2 months and likely another 1-2k of price increases as the Biden ev bill near......and the P/E contraction could be even more rapid than what I posted.

So I'm left with this conclusion.....either Wall St is an organized scheme where large institutions are working together with a clear goal and timeframe and are just biding their time and letting the stock get crushed as much as possible before they start buying in right before Q2 earnings........or Wall St is completely clueless about Tesla's earnings and will be caught with their pants down in one of the most massive squeezes we've ever seen in Q3/Q4 (in dollar amount, not necessarily percentage amount)

Either way, as I mentioned before I own a buttload of March 2022 800-850 Calls and I'm really not worried about them. I think Q4 earnings will put the stock well above 1,000.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not a Sheriff, a "Constable", which in Texas apparently means he's an elected Official. No possible conflict of interest there in Houston, nope.

Sheriff's are elected here in Washington too.

 

[EVWatcher]

It’s an echo chamber enabled by moderators
I mentioned the Tesla Solar Roof lawsuit & it gets deleted for ‘FUD’
Seems some are upset that the TSLA automated teller isn’t functioning as they were lead to believe

There is an overly optimistic theme to this forum that often conflates long term investing with what should be happening to the stock price in the next 6 months. It would do the forum some good to be realistic about short term pricing because that's what prevents swings from upper to lower BB or testing various support to cause selling by the very large amount of shares held by retail in that reads this forum. The swings make me say "uggg, wtf, how would anyone sell this stock?" but I also sit back and realize, ya, technicals exist because huge swaths of the financial industry live and die by them as a means justifying their existence. And there are things that go wrong now and then, like the S/X delays and not thinking about how complex some roofs are.


But that doesn't make your fear mongering about a class action lawsuit - which even if it happened I don't feel like would affect the company in the long term - or your signature right.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If we don't pop tomorrow and hold the lower BB and/or 150/200 DMA, then look out below. People seem to have forgotten wedges can break upwards or downwards.

Honestly I'm just pissed that those retards who bought DOGE are going to be rich and I'm going to die in a ditch.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

But that doesn't make your fear mongering about a class action lawsuit - which even if it happened I don't feel like would affect the company in the long term - or your signature right.

Stating reality is ‘fear mongering’. Gotcha.

 

[Singuy]

All I know is

When Nuclear Fusion start posting here, that means we are near the bottom.

Also I feel like your sig is very...2013. "FACT: ELON MUSK IS NOT A FOUNDER OF TESLA (court judgements do not revise history). ELON MUSK DOES NOT HOLD A PHD IN SCIENCE & IS NOT A QUALIFIED ENGINEER".....

You need to update your sig to "Model 3s DOESN'T HAVE WORKING BRAKES" or "IT RUNS INTO TREES ON AUTOPILOT". Get with the time bro...

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

 

[willow_hiller]

The signal in this thread is information on how well Tesla is executing their plans and achieving their goals. Model S/X delays? Useful (negative) information. I don't think the majority of regular readers here dislike useful negative information.

The noise is individual car crashes, individual lawsuits, minor quibbles over exactly how FSD will work. Those items might affect short term price moments, but they don't detract from how Tesla is executing at any given moment. And Tesla's overall execution is what drives the medium and long term trends.

If anyone is capable of collating the daily flood of minor noisy news stories into a reliable leading indicator for short term prices, please share that method with us and I'm sure it won't be voted down. But posting them in isolation, without even thoughtful comment, isn't useful.

 

[Thumper]

Broke down and pulled trigger on some Roth conversion. If I miss the bottom, oh well.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Also I feel like your sig is very...2013. "FACT: ELON MUSK IS NOT A FOUNDER OF TESLA (court judgements do not revise history). ELON MUSK DOES NOT HOLD A PHD IN SCIENCE & IS NOT A QUALIFIED ENGINEER".....

You need to update your sig to "Model 3s DOESN'T HAVE WORKING BRAKES" or "IT RUNS INTO TREES ON AUTOPILOT". Get with the time bro...

Ahh, the inability to delineate. Typical of an echo chamber with a siege mentality