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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Ahh, the inability to delineate. Typical of an echo chamber with a siege mentality
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How do you like my siege mentality?
 
If we don't pop tomorrow and hold the lower BB and/or 150/200 DMA, then look out below. People seem to have forgotten wedges can break upwards or downwards.

Honestly I'm just pissed that those retards who bought DOGE are going to be rich and I'm going to die in a ditch. :mad:
That Matt guy Dogecoin Millionnaire who sold all his TSLA he bough in early 2019, invested his $180,000 in Doge 2 months ago and now has $2M worth in Doge. Thats the new online trend these days, wallstreetbetters in the Doge community. I made 100% in one day with GME joining wallstreetbets and following the meme stocks. I am now riding my bike everyday since March with the good weather and the sunny days. I missed the Doge to the moon meme so I will join your pissed off group.
 
That Matt guy Dogecoin Millionnaire who sold all his TSLA he bough in early 2019, invested his $180,000 in Doge 2 months ago and now has $2M worth in Doge. Thats the new online trend these days, wallstreetbetters in the Doge community. I made 100% in one day with GME joining wallstreetbets and following the meme stocks. I am now riding my bike everyday since March with the good weather and the sunny days. I missed the Doge to the moon meme so I will join your pissed off group.
It's not worth the money to follow WSB. They riot your brain. Would hate for you to start diamond handing and spamming rocket emojis to your colleagues who sees you as a respectable MD.
 
If you put your finger on the pulse of sentiment around here of late, lots of hope, hold on
I think this is a good time for folks on this forum to reflect on the value, or lack thereof, that this forum has provided, particularly this year. I've been an infrequent poster/mostly lurker since 2012 when I bought my first shares at around $5. I survived the tough times, frequently with the help of the steadfast optimists on this board, and last year blasted through my "retirement number" at a relatively young age. Early this year the TSLA share price just seemed a bit too frothy so I sold almost all my shares, in part because the share price seemed to price in near-perfect execution by Tesla. And, while Tesla/Elon have accomplished amazing things, one thing that is clear is that Tesla/Elon are not perfect and will often fall short, particularly with timelines.

Here's my point: how many posts on this forum have predicted further stratospheric SP movements this year vs. how many posts have predicted this big drop? How many negative opinions have been downvoted simply because they were negative? Exactly. If you want positive, supportive opinions, this forum is great. If you want intelligent debate that could give you a heads up that a SP drop is possible and that could help you save or even make money, this forum is not the place to visit, especially if short-term drops will significantly affect you.
Amen! Group (positive only) think has always been present here!
 
Forward Observer

Before heading to bed Friday evening, Tesla had settled down $$2.37 after hours. Significance is that my old scout troop, back in the sixties, in Hawthorn, California was 237. Ever hear of Hawthorn? So, today’s slide was painful. The next time it shows after hours in the green 237, please alert me.

The grate news is that I caught my trout limit (5) within thirty minutes off my dock this afternoon. I would offer to split the fish to feed more of us suffering from hoof-n-mouth by dividing the fish, but Sandy and I just ate the largest two. At least the the license paid for itself.

I will not quit my day job, retirement. It is getting expensive to feed eleven ducklings and four goslings mealworms. Had to laugh today, it was like I had opened a new restaurant. Both families were resting comfortably in the lake waiting for their hand out.

Okay, think through all of last year. Think about all the MajorBS we have read or watched. There isn’t any Tesla competition ~ none. Volkswagon is the only one to buy a Model S ~ dismantle it and put it back together with less than 237 screws still waiting for a home. I did not remember Fiat was still a thing until someone wrote about it. Now, back in 1971 Fiat was a thing in Germany while I was serving my final enlisted dues. As PrivateBS making $99 bottles of beer on the wall I could not afford a doctors excuse; plus, well, I enlisted.

The Chinese $4 or $5K EV cars are a direct competition to GM and maybe Ford. Those cars are fantastic for Italy with little or no road space. I have a hard time getting Fix Or Repair Daily (FORD) out of my mind ~ one of those mind cooties from the sixties. Or, maybe it was the coke bottle rattling around an American car ~ placed in there by management to burn labor. Maybe, just maybe, if we paid people more than $15 per hour, more people could afford better than $5K cars. Yes, that would dry up the used car market. Italy would still have to widen their roads. Fantastic market for driver and passenger side mirrors though. Or, or, cars without side mirrors:)

Like a lot of you I went through the ordering a new S, X, 3 and Y. Maybe if I offered to pay twice the price, I could get something by my birthday in November. One I looked at was projected out to January or February 2022. Either there are no parts, or the demand is extraordinary. Somebody wants to buy Tesla’s.

Okay, relax and try not to overly stress. Fossil fuel vehicle sales might be going south, but the media tends to overlook that side of reporting. Hey, if they are going through the roof, please tell me.

Energy Credits ~ if automakers want to stop flowing rivers of tears, maybe they could, oh I do not now, produce zero emissions vehicles? What do you think?

Okay, I’ll stop and go talk to my bird friends. Maybe they will listen to my rant:)

Question, was that story about being billed twice by Tesla a purchase with Bitcoin? That is a moving target and worth twice the price.

Speaking of roof, anyone know anyone that can put me in contact for a Tesla solar roof in Olympia, Washington?
 
I must admit, like others this has been severely painful to experience. I was on the wrong side of leverage when the drop began in late January. I am now severely stressed out by some Jan 22 700calls that I bought on margin back in November. Just a few weeks ago 700 by January would have seemed safe...now I am not so sure...
Dude, buying shares on Margin is one thing. Buying Calls that can expire worthless?!? You'll probably be ok with Jan 22, but you're really gambling....
 
It's not worth the money to follow WSB. They riot your brain. Would hate for you to start diamond handing and spamming rocket emojis to your colleagues who sees you as a respectable MD.
Usually, orthopods are seen as the MDs who were not smart enough to go in the medicus sub specialities. I am sure my nuclear medicine colleague would not be surprised if I start spamming them Doge to the moon memes with shiba inu dog pictures. In fact, one of my very good friend with whom I have done my med school, have been cycling and running for years with just sent me an email 4 hours ago asking me if I had bought some Doge just before it sky rocketed. He’s too busy working 14 hours a day on his 10 concomitant research projects in cardiac nuclear imaging, he’s an associate professor at Harvard. He has no interest whatsoever for investing, every penny he makes is already spent. One of the smartest guy I have ever met, with an A+ average in his mathematic/physics baccalaureate before entering med school. If only he used all that brain computing power to follow tendies on WSB instead of asking an hammer banging orthopod.
 
FWIW this is pretty much the opposite of my attitude. Not advice but I've done well with LEAPS. But I always keep them a small total of my account.
LEAPS are fine with money you are willing to lose. Taking a loan to buy options takes really large balls, because you can easily lose it all if the market doesn't do what you expect, like it did with TSLA from 2014-2019.
 
Hey guys I want your opinion on my take of the situation:

Bullish:
- It seems like the sharp move downwards over the last week and it breaking through the BB's and the bottom of the long-term channel is a fake-out.
- IMO they're trying to trigger stop losses and cause panic selling so they can cover short positions, then reposition to take advantage of the movement back to the top of the channel.
- If this theory is correct, it might be pretty ugly at the open tomorrow but an intra-day rebound above 650 would help confirm it and give confidence for more buying

Bearish:
- The fact that it was able to break through 650 shows weak buying pressure, so even if it rebounds it may be a slower climb.
- The current rotation away from growth and lack of upcoming catalysts (FSD v9 and AI day are on Elon-Time) means Tesla is following the broader market trends. If the big bois aren't playing the technicals like I'm hoping, we could see an extended downside.

Silver lining:
- At some point, this rotation will end and money will flood back into tech regardless of how Tesla is doing. I think when that happens, all of the bullish news that's been ignored lately will get factored in, leading to a massive run ...Eventually

PS: I'm betting hard on the bullish scenario. Every time I've felt this uneasy it's been the right time to buy
 
Forward Observer

Before heading to bed Friday evening, Tesla had settled down $$2.37 after hours. Significance is that my old scout troop, back in the sixties, in Hawthorn, California was 237. Ever hear of Hawthorn? So, today’s slide was painful. The next time it shows after hours in the green 237, please alert me.

The grate news is that I caught my trout limit (5) within thirty minutes off my dock this afternoon. I would offer to split the fish to feed more of us suffering from hoof-n-mouth by dividing the fish, but Sandy and I just ate the largest two. At least the the license paid for itself.

I will not quit my day job, retirement. It is getting expensive to feed eleven ducklings and four goslings mealworms. Had to laugh today, it was like I had opened a new restaurant. Both families were resting comfortably in the lake waiting for their hand out.

Okay, think through all of last year. Think about all the MajorBS we have read or watched. There isn’t any Tesla competition ~ none. Volkswagon is the only one to buy a Model S ~ dismantle it and put it back together with less than 237 screws still waiting for a home. I did not remember Fiat was still a thing until someone wrote about it. Now, back in 1971 Fiat was a thing in Germany while I was serving my final enlisted dues. As PrivateBS making $99 bottles of beer on the wall I could not afford a doctors excuse; plus, well, I enlisted.

The Chinese $4 or $5K EV cars are a direct competition to GM and maybe Ford. Those cars are fantastic for Italy with little or no road space. I have a hard time getting Fix Or Repair Daily (FORD) out of my mind ~ one of those mind cooties from the sixties. Or, maybe it was the coke bottle rattling around an American car ~ placed in there by management to burn labor. Maybe, just maybe, if we paid people more than $15 per hour, more people could afford better than $5K cars. Yes, that would dry up the used car market. Italy would still have to widen their roads. Fantastic market for driver and passenger side mirrors though. Or, or, cars without side mirrors:)

Like a lot of you I went through the ordering a new S, X, 3 and Y. Maybe if I offered to pay twice the price, I could get something by my birthday in November. One I looked at was projected out to January or February 2022. Either there are no parts, or the demand is extraordinary. Somebody wants to buy Tesla’s.

Okay, relax and try not to overly stress. Fossil fuel vehicle sales might be going south, but the media tends to overlook that side of reporting. Hey, if they are going through the roof, please tell me.

Energy Credits ~ if automakers want to stop flowing rivers of tears, maybe they could, oh I do not now, produce zero emissions vehicles? What do you think?

Okay, I’ll stop and go talk to my bird friends. Maybe they will listen to my rant:)

Question, was that story about being billed twice by Tesla a purchase with Bitcoin? That is a moving target and worth twice the price.

Speaking of roof, anyone know anyone that can put me in contact for a Tesla solar roof in Olympia, Washington?
I simply wanted to point out that Olympia has the best children's museum ever!
 
Hey guys I want your opinion on my take of the situation:

Bullish:
- It seems like the sharp move downwards over the last week and it breaking through the BB's and the bottom of the long-term channel is a fake-out.
- IMO they're trying to trigger stop losses and cause panic selling so they can cover short positions, then reposition to take advantage of the movement back to the top of the channel.
- If this theory is correct, it might be pretty ugly at the open tomorrow but an intra-day rebound above 650 would help confirm it and give confidence for more buying

Bearish:
- The fact that it was able to break through 650 shows weak buying pressure, so even if it rebounds it may be a slower climb.
- The current rotation away from growth and lack of upcoming catalysts (FSD v9 and AI day are on Elon-Time) means Tesla is following the broader market trends. If the big bois aren't playing the technicals like I'm hoping, we could see an extended downside.

Silver lining:
- At some point, this rotation will end and money will flood back into tech regardless of how Tesla is doing. I think when that happens, all of the bullish news that's been ignored lately will get factored in, leading to a massive run ...Eventually

PS: I'm betting hard on the bullish scenario. Every time I've felt this uneasy it's been the right time to buy
For your shorts covering, did you take into increasing short positions over the last two months?
I am looking forward for the shorts by 04/30. I am hoping they went it from 04/15. That likely would mean less downward pressure, assuming we might peek ~55M short.
 
I think this is a good time for folks on this forum to reflect on the value, or lack thereof, that this forum has provided, particularly this year. I've been an infrequent poster/mostly lurker since 2012 when I bought my first shares at around $5. I survived the tough times, frequently with the help of the steadfast optimists on this board, and last year blasted through my "retirement number" at a relatively young age. Early this year the TSLA share price just seemed a bit too frothy so I sold almost all my shares, in part because the share price seemed to price in near-perfect execution by Tesla. And, while Tesla/Elon have accomplished amazing things, one thing that is clear is that Tesla/Elon are not perfect and will often fall short, particularly with timelines.

Here's my point: how many posts on this forum have predicted further stratospheric SP movements this year vs. how many posts have predicted this big drop? How many negative opinions have been downvoted simply because they were negative? Exactly. If you want positive, supportive opinions, this forum is great. If you want intelligent debate that could give you a heads up that a SP drop is possible and that could help you save or even make money, this forum is not the place to visit, especially if short-term drops will significantly affect you.
Really? I think lately it's more the opposite. I hear a lot of doom and gloom around here, far more than back in the day when everyone considered themselves crusader's.

What's the difference between now and 3 or 4 years ago? We're sitting here looking at positive fundamentals a year out becoming more and more clear......and getting no reaction from the SP. Do you have some wisdom to share on a rational cause for a big drop? I've seen plenty here, but nothing to make me think a SP below $1k would be rational for year end. If you got something other than "it might go down", post!

I will say this.....the mods do occasionally delete things that really are merely negative, but it's more like friendly fire. There used to be a lot of trolling.
 
All I know is

When Nuclear Fusion start posting here, that means we are near the bottom...

Indeed. I first bought my TSLA shares for less than $8 each (split adjusted) in early 2013 and joined TMC shortly thereafter. I've experienced many ups and downs. I once got out quite briefly. My regret was short lasting, since I got right back in to catch a huge up wave. Although the sale still resulted in a sizeable tax hit.

As you implied, bottoms in TSLA have almost always been telegraphed by the sudden appearance of a swarm of FUDsters that comes out of the TMC woodwork. They're accompanied by worried shareholders who have started to wring their hands. Does that mean the share price has already hit bottom? That's hard to say, but it is still above the levels touched in early and late March. We'd certainly want to see it hold above those levels.

Today the stock is dealing with rising interest rates that lower the net present value of future earnings. Margin requirements have been raised at some brokerages, thus forcing some sales. Both bearish speculators and cautious shareholders selling call options, force the market makers who buy them to sell shares as hedges. And those investors who sold some shares of TSLA and other stocks in 2020 at huge profits, now may be selling enough of their stocks to pay taxes due by next Monday. Of course those sales would mean more taxes have to be paid in early 2022 on 2021 realized gains.

The worst of the storm may soon pass. Perhaps that will be tomorrow. Perhaps in a week. Stay tuned for the adventures of Teslaland. :cool:
 
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Tesla's P/E SHOULD be even lower than 630 today if it wasn't for the one time S/X costs and the additional Elon pay package.
The Tesla Economist on Youtube released an analysis of Tesla's Q1 profitability compared to a "no-growth" scenario (ie: backed out the R&D expenses, SBC, and CapEx for new factories, etc).

He estimates that Tesla's CURRENT P/E ratio under those conditions is ~ 50. While that's where Tesla may end up in 10 years after this period of hypergrowth ebbs, but by then only the ghost of WB will be buying... :p


Cheers!