Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[XHabjab]

Coupland of 'Microserfs' fame popularized "Gen X" and it caught on tremendously. Then came Y/Millennials, then Z. Running out of letters though... (Don't think going greek would work: alpha, then beta would confuse people due to the software connotations.)

Alternatively, the danish alphabet has 29 letters and after z comes "æ", "ø" and ends with "å". So, I guess you can borrow these, starting with: "Gen Æ".
We here at TMC can start the trend!

Always being the trendsetter, I think Elon beat you to it.

X Æ A-12: Elon Musk and Grimes confirm baby name

The singer Grimes offers an explanation of the unusual name to her followers on social media.

www.bbc.com

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Thx. TBH i am not tuned in to stock at the moment. Mental health not good from lockdown.

Hang in there.

 

[dhanson865]

So it looks like Tesla needs to start producing more powerwalls out the wazoo and offering to sell them with minimal or no solar panels because these people are condsidering buying a F150 and parking it permanently just to get the effect of a stack of powerwalls

https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/noay6b

 

[PeterJA]

...The only ones I have seen are those from idiots who assume robotaxis are coming within the next year or so. I'm thinking none of us expect that to happen.

I expect it. Call me an idiot but I don't bet against Elon.

 

[JRP3]

This model Y owner says it's a horrible experience (he has 2 model Y, one with radar and one without).

The one with no radar TACC and AP were both unusable for the majority of his road trip.

View attachment 667892

Spoiler

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/no7ahx

The report of phantom braking kills the idea of false inputs from radar being the cause. Not a great sign.

 

[juanmedina]

So it looks like Tesla needs to start producing more powerwalls out the wazoo and offering to sell them with minimal or no solar panels because these people are condsidering buying a F150 and parking it permanently just to get the effect of a stack of powerwalls

https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/noay6b

The F-150 Pro with 300 miles is not available to retail.

 

[Knightshade]

frankly the remaining 50% puzzles me. I suspect that will wait until there is regulatory recognition somewhere of autonomous driving without a human driver involved.

"regulatory" continues to be largely a red herring in the FSD discussion.

autonomous is already legal in a bunch of US states as long as the system can obey existing traffic laws.

No additional "approval" from anybody needed.

The only thing stopping anyone from rolling it out today in those places is nobody believes they have a reliable enough product to roll out yet.

If Tesla ever does think their system is good enough they can turn it on that day in at least those US states.... Indeed they might do exactly that and use both pressure from folks in other places being unhappy they can't have it yet pestering their state officially to legalize it- plus the safety data gleaned from real world autonomous use in the states it's already legal, as two avenues for more widespread legalization.

The report of phantom braking kills the idea of false inputs from radar being the cause. Not a great sign.

As Green has pointed out in the past, radar was a cause of some phantom braking.

It was not the only cause of all of it. AFAIK the idea eliminating radar would eliminate phantom braking was just wishful thinking by some folks online, never an official claim by anybody.

 

[Causalien]

The report of phantom braking kills the idea of false inputs from radar being the cause. Not a great sign.

That sound like the algorithm met some fringe cases so the finite state machine went into the catch all case and that is to break. I am guessing they are not using this reasoning but is a neural net. But I am guessing some neural net equivalent is probably happening. Ya, not a good sign.

 

[eloder]

The report of phantom braking kills the idea of false inputs from radar being the cause. Not a great sign.

The Tesla subreddit has become a cesspool of FUD lately, an echo chamber of false statements that are easily disproved by watching raw FSD beta videos or even just by reading the car manuals. You can't get me to believe that this experience is true, because it simply does not show up in hours upon hours of FSD beta video. (And it would seem silly for Tesla not to base Tesla Vision upon beta builds / v9 that have been in public testing for many months now, even if they have the full FSD controls disabled in the public version).

 

[Knightshade]

The Tesla subreddit has become a cesspool of FUD lately, an echo chamber of false statements that are easily disproved by watching raw FSD beta videos or even just by reading the car manuals. You can't get me to believe that this experience is true, because it simply does not show up in hours upon hours of FSD beta video. (And it would seem silly for Tesla not to base Tesla Vision upon beta builds / v9 that have been in public testing for many months now, even if they have the full FSD controls disabled in the public version).

Uh... the V9 FSD beta hasn't been in public testing for months.

or at all as far as anyone knows.

Only 2.5 weeks ago Elon mentioned all the time they're spending removing radar and confirming safety internally is why V9 has been delayed and NOTHING pure vision only had gone out to ANYBODY yet.

All the FSD Beta vids are based on 8.x which still used radar.

 

[2daMoon]

That sound like the algorithm met some fringe cases so the finite state machine went into the catch all case and that is to break. I am guessing they are not using this reasoning but is a neural net. But I am guessing some neural net equivalent is probably happening. Ya, not a good sign.

That's got to be a messy state machine. To address all the variables borders on the impossible, if not exceeds it by a significant margin. NN will always have more learning to do.

Just read on Teslarati about a couple rounding a corner meeting a truck turning too fast and a pallet of concrete paving stones fell on the Model 3. Then started imagining the FUD about why didn't the Tesla do something to avoid that?

 

[Dutchie]

So it looks like Tesla needs to start producing more powerwalls out the wazoo and offering to sell them with minimal or no solar panels because these people are condsidering buying a F150 and parking it permanently just to get the effect of a stack of powerwalls

https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/noay6b

Isn’t that a bit simplistic? So you have F150 lightning. Where and how are you going to plug it into your house so that it powers your house? There is more to that needed then simply buying the truck.

 

[AZRI11]

Uh... the V9 FSD beta hasn't been in public testing for months.

or at all as far as anyone knows.

Only 2.5 weeks ago Elon mentioned all the time they're spending removing radar and confirming safety internally is why V9 has been delayed and NOTHING pure vision only had gone out to ANYBODY yet.

All the FSD Beta vids are based on 8.x which still used radar.

Radar is turned off for (FSD Beta) navigate on city streets. Been that way since first released in October. Highway Navigate AP still used it.

 

[dhanson865]

The F-150 Pro with 300 miles is not available to retail.

which changes very little if people are willing to buy a F-150 to use as a glorified powerwall. F-150 Pro vs F-150 XLT is only a few thousand dollars difference, compared to the tens of thousands of dollars they are already talking about.

Also I don't think you have to have the 300 mile pack to use it as a home backup, just buy the Charge Station Pro and have it installed by Sunrun and the 230 mile version works.

So whether it's a $40k or $50k F150 sitting in a garage never being driven that still screams to me that Tesla needs to make more powerwalls.

 

[dhanson865]

Isn’t that a bit simplistic? So you have F150 lightning. Where and how are you going to plug it into your house so that it powers your house? There is more to that needed then simply buying the truck.

If you bought the short range electric F150, you buy a 80-amp Ford Charge Station Pro (The Charge Station Pro comes standard with the Extended Range pack). Either way you have it professionally installed by Sunrun, plug the truck in, and it's part of your home power setup from then on.

Sunrun will install charging stations for Ford's electric F-150, which can serve as home energy backup

The Ford Motor Company has chosen Sunrun to serve as the preferred installer of the home charging system for the new all-electric F-150 Lightning truck.

www.solarpowerworldonline.com

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html

2022 Ford F-150 Lightning is an electric pickup that can power your house for days

Intelligent Backup Power can send juice from the Lightning's battery into your home's electrical system in a blackout, no extension cords required.

www.cnet.com

Here’s How You Can Use the Ford F-150 Lightning to Power Your Home in the Event of a Power Outage

The Ford F-150 Lightning changes the game for Ford. Here's how one of its more interesting features works.

www.autoweek.com

The Electric Ford F-150 Can Power Your Entire House for Three Days on a Single Charge

If you ration your power usage, Ford says it can stretch that to 10 days.

www.thedrive.com

all over youtube also if you just want to search for it.

 

[Knightshade]

Radar is turned off for (FSD Beta) navigate on city streets. Been that way since first released in October. Highway Navigate AP still used it.

<citation needed>

I ask, because even Elon says otherwise- mentioning in March it wasn't till the next major release of FSD Beta (v9 we are still waiting on) they'd go pure vision.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370522745709158407

Also maybe you missed this FSD Beta video where it's still offering some (very poor) forward visualization with all forward cameras blocks, only place he could get that is from radar... then a bit later he clearly shows radar input again when he tries blocking it. (the blocking material makes the car thing there's another vehicle directly in front)- So yes, FSD beta so far has absolutely been using radar still even on local roads.

 

[hobbes]

Thanks. I didn't know there was that much excess that needed to be trimmed off post casting. Do you know if the cleanup of those parts is an automated process?

Yeah, there was a video that showed a robot picking the newly produced casting out of the gigapress and promptly feeding it into another machine cleaning up the excess. I´ll try to find it...

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1356639381549846529

At 0:11 casting is taken out of press and at 0:15 placed in another machine which I assume removes the excess parts.

 

[AZRI11]

<citation needed>

I ask, because even Elon says otherwise- mentioning in March it wasn't till the next major release of FSD Beta (v9 we are still waiting on) they'd go pure vision.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370522745709158407

Also maybe you missed this FSD Beta video where it's still offering some (very poor) forward visualization with all forward cameras blocks, only place he could get that is from radar... then a bit later he clearly shows radar input again when he tries blocking it. (the blocking material makes the car thing there's another vehicle directly in front)- So yes, FSD beta so far has absolutely been using radar still even on local roads.

I was mistaken. Only Tesla employees have been testing without radar. The 73 or so private citizens on fsd beta city streets have had radar since October. Sorry. Public beta testers did report far fewer phantom braking on city streets.

 

[MXWing]

Hearing hysterical talks of owners backing out of taking delivery because the cars don't have radar.
And disabling Wifi so their existing Tesla's don't get radar deleted overnight.


Look - I get that having no radar is a step backward for now.
Look - I get that Tesla obviously lacking parts, cut off radar and a ton of engineers are going to be sleepless for a few weeks trying to overcome hardware with software.

It's all worth it in the interest of positive Q2 numbers, so we can **bury Burry**.

Bet I can command about 45K right now for my wife's 35K SR because it has RADAR.

If I waited 3 years for AP1 Parity (Parody), the babies can wait 3 weeks for Radar parity.

 

[elasalle]

A Huge Batch of Tesla Cars Arrived in Israel, Helping Secure 80% of EV Market Share

Tesla vehicles continue to flood Israel at high speed and a vehicle carrier with more than 1,100 electric vehicles will arrive at the port of Ashdod in the coming days. After registration of all vehicles, Tesla's share of the Israeli EV market is expected to be about 80%.

www.tesmanian.com

Tesla vehicles continue to flood Israel at high speed and a vehicle carrier with more than 1,100 electric vehicles will arrive at the port of Ashdod in the coming days. After registration of all vehicles, Tesla's share of the Israeli EV market is expected to be about 80%.

Last Q, I recall reading about the 1st batch going with just like ~ 80 cars.