StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Did he really say that? I recall he said they were very difficult to predict and I think I would be surprised if he tried to project forward that far.
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- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Did he really say that? I recall he said they were very difficult to predict and I think I would be surprised if he tried to project forward that far.
I don't think you understand the point you are arguing, then.
JPR's logic is that the number was larger in April then declined in May because of export vs. domestic delivery flow. He's saying it was high in April because of exports then naturally reverted to norm in May, so no concern. But the number was even higher in March when there was likely no exports.
You are arguing that after delivering 35k in China in March, the backlog was 21k. Then somehow, after delivering just 11k in China in April, the backlog dropped to 18k. That would be worse than the drop they are actually reporting in orders in May from April...
This is such a ridiculous argument. Again, they defined the metric.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Did you check to see if these "media agencies" are all owned by the same person?
No you clearly do not understand what I was saying. And you're talking backlog now which is not something I was talking about at all. Just forget it
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
See? Now you are playing their game. There WAS no AP crash in Texas. There WAS a driver behind the wheel. But you're framing it as you've been told by the Media: the "AP crash". False.
Language matters. FUD is business tradecraft for the shortzes. They're good at it. But unfortunately for you (right now), they're living rent-free in your head. Maybe start thinking (and writing) about the event as the "Texas FUD", or the "Texas Panick" (which is what shortzes worked to achieve).
Similarly, reframe efforts by external paid-for-profit actors like Constable Mark "I'm 100% Wrong" Hermann. Humor works best: "There's a penalty for filing a false report TO the Police, but no penalty for filing a false report BY the Police."
Then the gong show put on Youtube by Consumer Retorts becomes comedy gold. Seat hopping, wheel-weighting, AP reach-around, all played to square dancing music...
The trick is to train yourself to suspend judgement until you have all the facts. In Texas, that was at least 2 weeks (but we still don't have toxicology results, hmm...)
Looking forward to you next contribution. Hope you feel better when you realize the power of humor to change you mood.
Cheers!
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You hit the nail on the head. I've known this for years.I've noticed a lot of the negative Tesla hit pieces have been coming from the Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, Barron's and Marketwatch. It just so happens all are owned by Rupert Murdock, with a net worth of 22.7 billion. His media empire also includes Dow Jones and Company and Fox. He also has close business ties with CNBC. Lessor known is that this media empire had it's beginnings in 1922 with the desire to spread propaganda in Australia for business purposes. You can read more about the sordid tale of the news empire founded on misinformation here:
The secret history of News Corp: a media empire built on spreading propaganda
New research reveals how News Limited was secretly established in the early 1900s by a mining company for the express purpose of disseminating ‘propaganda’.theconversation.com
Murdoch also has considerable fossil fuel holdings so I'm not so sure we even need to look to short-sellers to explain the recent FUD emanating from his empire built on lies. For all we know, he might have a large short position himself!
I must be lucky and I don't click on news FUD to make investment decisions. I have stock that is HODL I do have a few long leaps and some trading shares. We are putting in expensive windows including a large garden window so I had to sell a few trading shares(67 shares at 622) to pay the contractor(I don't use credit if I can avoid it). I am selling our last ICE vehicle( Tacoma) and if it sells soon I hope the SP stays low but if its 500 or 900 I will still buy when cash is available. I have a hard time believing that the FUD seems to still work or does it?; perhaps it is an illusion since there is a strong correlation with hit news pieces and shorting. I thought the SEC (1932) laws made this illegal although the laws and interpretation have been altered.
At this point......I'm all for balls out confident/aggressive Tesla/Elon.
They've stayed quiet, sandbagging things all year. Now by Q2 earnings, they'll have a very clear picture of their supply chain, demand, S/X, ramp, 4680 progress, Berlin/Austin progress, FSD developments, etc..... If everything's going to plan for them in all the facets, I want them to come out on that Q2 earning call and say "Ya know what, we're confident we're going to 1 million P/D, Austin and Berlin will start pumping out Y's by Q4 and we can do that because 4680 progress and yields have been improving steadily ahead of schedule, Tesla Semi? It's shipping next quarter.....btw here's how much our FSD and Autopilot take rate is increasing since releasing subscription model, et......Just go from quiet sandbagging to full on outspoken confidence.
Obviously if things are not going exactly to plan, don't come out overconfident. But I think we can all agree here that Tesla and Elon have been giving breadcrumbs all year about how things are progressing plus news from suppliers that indicate certain things are happening. I think now's the time switch from that cautious mode to confident........coinciding with a new stock split of course
This will sound insensitive to folks who gambled on options, or gambled on too much margin, or gambled money they need in the short-term, or can't understand that paper losses are not losses unless they sell.
I'm all for balls-out aggressive nonstop FUD and shorting that drops the share price even more. Seriously, bring it on.
I am lying in wait for even lower prices, which were teased by bears and @StealthP3D. If we hit lower 500s or (dare I hope?) 400s, I will sell everything else not bolted down, and max out my margin to buy Tesla shares.
This stock is about to explode again, for all the reasons you mention and more (Tesla Energy taking off for the stratosphere). If the current drop is due to Big Boy manipulation (which seems likely since the FUD is such obvious horse hockey), then it's probably because Big Boys realize time is running out to get in low before Tesla's success becomes so overwhelming that TSLA launches to a whole new range. When will it launch? Who knows, but intense manipulation suggests Big Boys believe it's soon.
So I have sympathy for the gamblers, but how about some sympathy for us little pilot fish that want to swim beside Big Sharks and gobble cheap shares when they do.
My mistake on "orders in excess of supply" referring to backlog then, I guess. So you think this is orders in excess of that one individual month's production without any consideration to prior orders? My counterargument wasn't against that but I think that makes even less sense. That would be a strange and complicated way of internal order tracking. Simplest thing to look at is new orders minus cancellations, which is exactly what they said.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree with this generally, the exact timing is always the difficult to predict part.
I think we might be approaching some stronger FUD as the current FUD seems to be relatively weak medicine. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharper and scarier drop than that chart would appear to indicate.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Consider what source could possibly provide information about China orders.
No individual salesperson in China would have these numbers. Tesla internally is quite tight-lipped about this kind of info.
It would have to be at the executive sales level in China, or higher. It's almost impossible that there is authentic source at this level or higher that could be sharing this info, because Elon would know who would have that info, and immediately get to the bottom of who shared it. (My guess is the number of people who would know this information is less than 5).
Long story short is that the inaccurate paraphrased version of Occum's Razor applies here: The simplest explanation (that the story is completely fabricated from unicorn farts and mouse pimples) is almost certainly the correct one.
No individual salesperson in China would have these numbers. Tesla internally is quite tight-lipped about this kind of info.
It would have to be at the executive sales level in China, or higher. It's almost impossible that there is authentic source at this level or higher that could be sharing this info, because Elon would know who would have that info, and immediately get to the bottom of who shared it. (My guess is the number of people who would know this information is less than 5).
Long story short is that the inaccurate paraphrased version of Occum's Razor applies here: The simplest explanation (that the story is completely fabricated from unicorn farts and mouse pimples) is almost certainly the correct one.
Maybe he projected only for this year. I can't remember exactly, but somebody in the know said reg credits are not going away anytime soon.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
The more of this FUD I see, the less I think it's big oil.
I think it's actually big money funds (hedge funds, MMs, etc) who pay the journalists to put out BS and lower the share price (at the expense of weak longs) so they can get in at a low level before running it up. Remember last time this happened? Tesla was at $100-something pre-split, then within 2 years it had increased 10x.
Not sure of the magnitude of the pending runup, but this feels the same.
It's always darkest before the light, just as I always find my Model S FOB in the last place I looked for it.
I think it's actually big money funds (hedge funds, MMs, etc) who pay the journalists to put out BS and lower the share price (at the expense of weak longs) so they can get in at a low level before running it up. Remember last time this happened? Tesla was at $100-something pre-split, then within 2 years it had increased 10x.
Not sure of the magnitude of the pending runup, but this feels the same.
It's always darkest before the light, just as I always find my Model S FOB in the last place I looked for it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, you are simultaneously holding the positions that the report used a made up metric, and that an alternative explaination other than that implied in that report is "dumb".
Since you list you location as the United States, I assume you are an native english speaker. If that is the case, then your conclusion is simply "unwarranted".
We don't have the facts. Even Deliverires (also by a 3rd party, not Tesla CN) is a week out. The very TIMING of this report in a little-known media outlet (follow instantly by millions of shares sold short), makes the report SUS.
I recommend suspending judgement until you have more information. Hot takes based on the facts as presented lead to errors in judgement. That's not "dumb"; that's "hamburglared" (ie: you won't know what you ate until you look in the toilet bowl tomorrow morning.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Was "ludicrous speed". Now "going to plaid".
I do all that I can to advance Tesla’s “Master Plan.” In the simplest terms, this is my disclosure for the posts I make on TMC.
I see prospering while investing in sustainable transportation and renewable energy as the strongest response to FUD; the strongest remedy for climate change.
My investment strategy, in support of of these ideals, is trading LEAPS and accumulating shares. In the simplest terms, a TSLA LEAP is a two-year bet on Elon’s innovation skills; a pretty sound wager.
While FUD and market-induced anxiety can rattle my emotions—and at one time, I had cool factor—I always fall back on my two-year vision.
This strategy has worked for me, and it is not my intent to criticize the investment thesis of anyone else, nor offer any investment advice. However, for all of the day-to-day hand wringing that’s posted here on TMC, I do have one piece of advice.
Steady. There will very soon be millions of Tesla vehicles standing as testaments to the reality of the technology. It will become tougher and tougher to FUD over millions of “proofs of concept.”
I see prospering while investing in sustainable transportation and renewable energy as the strongest response to FUD; the strongest remedy for climate change.
My investment strategy, in support of of these ideals, is trading LEAPS and accumulating shares. In the simplest terms, a TSLA LEAP is a two-year bet on Elon’s innovation skills; a pretty sound wager.
While FUD and market-induced anxiety can rattle my emotions—and at one time, I had cool factor—I always fall back on my two-year vision.
This strategy has worked for me, and it is not my intent to criticize the investment thesis of anyone else, nor offer any investment advice. However, for all of the day-to-day hand wringing that’s posted here on TMC, I do have one piece of advice.
Steady. There will very soon be millions of Tesla vehicles standing as testaments to the reality of the technology. It will become tougher and tougher to FUD over millions of “proofs of concept.”
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Well that theory is that it's competitors (other auto manufacturers, etc.). I think that certainly comes into play, but I think the bigger effect is from the big funds who benefit from major swings in the price.
Why do I think that? Think about all the *positive* media Tesla was getting when the share price was running up. There seemed to be a lot of that, and very little FUD.
If the theory you posted was correct, the media would always have a negative bias. But during the big runup, the media seemed to be assisting the upward movement. (At least that's how I remember it--maybe I am wrong).
Since the media seems to assist in pushing the price down to a minimum, then helping it up to a maximum, it lends more credence to the MMs being the true influence here as they profit most from the movement in the extremes.
And it's another hint that we'll be running up soon.
gabeincal
Active Member
Enjoy the latest flyover. More S deliveries, a track resurface, and some zoom-in on Gigapress action.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
For all you people who want tesla to hire a PR person.... a petition of interest:
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