Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

$178 pre-split. $4,500 at the peak in 19 mths. 25x top to bottom.

Sure, if you want to use “facts” hehe fair enough, I didn’t think thru the math on that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

$TSLA up 0.28% AH....dip is over y'all!! see you tomorrow for max pain and a green $TSLA day....we can only hope

Exactly, that's why I just picked up 25 chairs. I remember the feeling of missing some of the last dip.
Here's to hoping!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I like to think our constant harassing's of Lora K...had something to do with the 2nd bullet point.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The problem with FUD is that it doesn't just affect the stock price - if there's enough of it, it can lower demand. May not be a problem now, but it could be in the future. If people hear a thousand times about some piece of FUD they will believe it. FUD is anti-Tesla propaganda.

In the future, when $TSLA is selling 10M cars/year...a few thousand won't matter

 

[Thekiwi]

I will say this: delivery times on tesla.cn for Model 3 / Model Y across all available trims is currently listed at 1-3 weeks. The US varies by model, with the shortest delivery timeframe being 2-9 weeks (Performance Y). Model Y LR is 9-13 weeks. Model 3 SR+ is 9-12 weeks; Model 3 LR is 2-11 weeks; Model 3P is 2-11 weeks.

This is a valid observation, and we would all be wise to consider this before writing off totally the reports of soft orders in China. Demand in China at this stage is not vastly outstripping supply for Y or 3 (otherwise you wouldn’t be able to order a 3 or Y now for delivery in 1-3 weeks), and this is despite Tesla China starting to export Model Y, albeit in limited numbers. It should be said though that China production rate has increased considerably, so if demand is still roughly meeting supply for month of June, then things are looking good.

I think best case scenario is that Tesla has roughly matched production to quarterly China demand after production devoted to export, maybe with a little bit of excess supply towards quarter end, but plenty of opportunity to build inventory a little.

I think if demand was really weak in China we would see one of two things happen:
1. Model Y SR+ introduced for China market
2. Model Y deliveries introduced to many more APAC countries (and maybe UK as well if they are making RHD version for Aus/NZ/Jap etc) where there is huge pent up demand awaiting its launch.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I've noticed a lot of the negative Tesla hit pieces have been coming from the Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, Barron's and Marketwatch. It just so happens all are owned by Rupert Murdock, with a net worth of 22.7 billion. His media empire also includes Dow Jones and Company and Fox. He also has close business ties with CNBC. Lessor known is that this media empire had it's beginnings in 1922 with the desire to spread propaganda in Australia for business purposes. You can read more about the sordid tale of the news empire founded on misinformation here:

The secret history of News Corp: a media empire built on spreading propaganda

New research reveals how News Limited was secretly established in the early 1900s by a mining company for the express purpose of disseminating ‘propaganda’.

theconversation.com

Murdoch also has considerable fossil fuel holdings so I'm not so sure we even need to look to short-sellers to explain the recent FUD emanating from his empire built on lies. For all we know, he might have a large short position himself!

Fortunately the gene for evil did not reach James.

Tesla director James Murdoch attacks family's media over climate-crisis denial

James Murdoch, the son of News Corp owner Rupert Murdoch, has publicly criticized his father's media outlets for promoting climate-crisis denialism

electrek.co

In Australia, Rupert has what amounts to control over the Federal Government.

I hold Rupert responsible for our participation in the Iraq war (65% of Australians were opposed, but his 70 plus regional newspapers supported John Howard in joining the coalition of the willing).

We have crap broadband thanks to Rupert. He undermined fibre to premises to avoid it competing with Foxtel.

And of course, nobody gets Rupert’s support as PM unless they back fossil fuels. Scott Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor are pwned.

Edit: Spelling of Scott.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If any of this FUD had the slightest merit, I'd be wondering if that wedge breakout was headed down not up. But that's the fake and they tried with whatever shares they could find today. Void any justification (a bunch of malarkey), it's a buy signal for me and tempted to round things up a bit.

Or wait until tomorrow for more?

 

[Big Time]

There WAS no AP crash in Texas. False.
The trick is to train yourself to suspend judgement until you have all the facts.

The way I understand it, this “event” is up in the air still with no solid answer from anyone, (although assumptions can be made with the data we have).. but regardless, anyone (even you!!) who has an opinion on the crash is assuming judgement. This event however is vastly different than something that can be looked up in Tesla Shanghai office spreadsheet and debunked immediately if false.

The only real “fact” that we have is what the stock price does in correlation with these attacks. Those are the hard facts so swallow for some. Like my original post said, I’m fine with the SP, I do however prefer not to be sideswiped when avoidable.

I enjoy humor, I also enjoy self loathing to comfort myself. I also enjoy pointing out things that I see as no brainers. Also I hope no one gives me the “If you think your smarter than Elon, you should start your own company” that one is hilarious. Constructive criticism given by any companies long term shareholders should be at the very least listened to, or even considered. There are many ways for Tesla to achieve its mission, and many ways for Tesla’s shareholders to be successful with it. I just want it to be the smoothest ride possible.

I however am just one person, but I did just vote as one person to have Rob be the PR guy!

“It’s not what they take away from you that counts, it’s what you do with what you have left”- HHH

 

[Duffer]

Enjoy the latest flyover. More S deliveries, a track resurface, and some zoom-in on Gigapress action.

Three cars under car covers on the right side of the lot at the 1:44 mark. Tesla obviously doesn't care about the cars becoming dirty as proven by the very dirty white car located in the same lot. The model "S" refresh is old news so why the covers? Inquiring minds would definitely like to know.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It should be said though that China production rate has increased considerably, so if demand is still roughly meeting supply for month of June, then things are looking good.

A 1-3 wk leadtime (for what it's worth) would be extremely efficient line balancing. Ramping with no inventory? That's perfect actually.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is a valid observation, and we would all be wise to consider this before writing off totally the reports of soft orders in China. Demand in China at this stage is not vastly outstripping supply for Y or 3 (otherwise you wouldn’t be able to order a 3 or Y now for delivery in 1-3 weeks), and this is despite Tesla China starting to export Model Y, albeit in limited numbers. It should be said though that China production rate has increased considerably, so if demand is still roughly meeting supply for month of June, then things are looking good.

I think best case scenario is that Tesla has roughly matched production to quarterly China demand after production devoted to export, maybe with a little bit of excess supply towards quarter end, but plenty of opportunity to build inventory a little.

I think if demand was really weak in China we would see one of two things happen:
1. Model Y SR+ introduced for China market
2. Model Y deliveries introduced to many more APAC countries (and maybe UK as well if they are making RHD version for Aus/NZ/Jap etc) where there is huge pent up demand awaiting its launch.

Except that we’re in the third month of the quarter now....Tesla will likely produce 40k MIC 3/Y this month that will all be going to China deliveries. The 1-3 week estimate is par the course. If anything, US wait times are the anomaly because demand seems have gone bonkers in the US

 

[SOULPEDL]

Huge!!
2020 total Tesla was like just 3K (IIRC in some article)

Oh great, so now Australia needs more MegaPack batteries to allow for more EVs which drives more demand for MegaPack Batteries and Solar.
Australia keeps amazing me (OK besides some scandinavian countries).

 

[Cherry Wine]

This is a valid observation, and we would all be wise to consider this before writing off totally the reports of soft orders in China. Demand in China at this stage is not vastly outstripping supply for Y or 3 (otherwise you wouldn’t be able to order a 3 or Y now for delivery in 1-3 weeks), and this is despite Tesla China starting to export Model Y, albeit in limited numbers. It should be said though that China production rate has increased considerably, so if demand is still roughly meeting supply for month of June, then things are looking good.

I think best case scenario is that Tesla has roughly matched production to quarterly China demand after production devoted to export, maybe with a little bit of excess supply towards quarter end, but plenty of opportunity to build inventory a little.

I think if demand was really weak in China we would see one of two things happen:
1. Model Y SR+ introduced for China market
2. Model Y deliveries introduced to many more APAC countries (and maybe UK as well if they are making RHD version for Aus/NZ/Jap etc) where there is huge pent up demand awaiting its launch.

To add to this, I view Tesla's aggressive actions toward FUD in China recently (demanding public apologies, ramping up hiring of communications staff in China, etc.) as further corroboration of possibly softening demand. Not a confirmation by any means, but a worthwhile data point.

 

[Singuy]

To add to this, I view Tesla's aggressive actions toward FUD in China recently (demanding public apologies, ramping up hiring of communications staff in China, etc.) as further corroboration of possibly softening demand. Not a confirmation by any means, but a worthwhile data point.

Still no demand lever pull..and these are the highest margin cars so plenty of room for discounts.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Wow, this forum is depressing reading today! Seems like we need a little good news.

In the slow burn, we're-winning-in-the-long-run category, this one from 3 weeks ago seems to have slipped under the radar (if I'm wrong and this was posted already - sorry!). Sandy Munro posted a video where he interviews 3 senior industry specialists Comparing Tesla, Ford, & VW's Electrical Architectures.

It's not surprising that the Model Y is architecturally more integrated, more advanced, more simple than the Mach-E and the ID.4. What I found interesting was why. These experienced pros suggest that many of the design choices Ford and VW made for their new EVs were likely the result of having to use "parts on the shelf". In other words, because Ford and VW have supplier agreements to use legacy parts in volume for their ICE vehicles, it's too expensive for them to design from first principles around newer, better architectures in their EVs, as we know Tesla always does (Elon's never met a slate he didn't want wiped clean! ) Effectively, all the legacy manufacturers "have" to design their new EVs around obsolete technology.

In the long run, this is more expensive to build and results in lower functionality. There are practical reasons Ford may never be able to economically build and sell the F150 Lightning competitively against the Cybertruck (ignoring the polarizing design). This video provides some good insight about why, long-term, Tesla is still the one to beat. (Not that any of us here needed confirmation! I'm just re-focusing us on some good news that promises upwards SP!

We talk a lot about Tesla's lead in batteries, AI, etc. but even in basic design like electrical systems, Tesla continues to be light years ahead of the competition. FUD-this and FUD-that, eventually all these legacy limitations catch up to them and they will lose money and market share - the money-losing Chevy Bolt is a case in point - from this testimony, nothing's changed. Tesla is well situated for increasing market share and long term profit. The SP will follow.

HODL. Chill.

Screen shots courtesy of 3IS.

The reason the Tesla has no fuses is because it's designed for circuits to be digitally reset, either automatically or remotely by Tesla support - how much $ does this save? How many service visits does it prevent?:

 

[ZsoZso]

Great work Tesla! No response it MUST be true. How many times can I say this. DUMB MOVE.
Hire one person from IT to post a tweet every time the stock price moves 5%. I could write that code. A basic clown could pull this off.

It’s not rocket science, it’s common sense.

Or, just Add that minuscule 10 second task to someone’s job requirement, they don’t even need to hire someone.
DUMB

21st century tech leader can’t communicate WHY?

NO logical reason.

I don’t even care about the stock price, I care about the principal of how my money is being effected negatively without any defense from the person I give it to.

That’s like me going to a bank to put my money in and kept safe, and meanwhile the vault is left open with a sign that says “Take One”

DUMB

We will recover, but that doesn't mean this stupidity isn’t preventable.
Oh your building 2 factories and have billions in cash yet you can’t stand up for your investors for 10 seconds with a press release?

where’s the resistance after $562?

D
U
M
B

Investors, i.e. the ones who buy & HODL will be fine, gamblers on the other hand...
Remember what Elon said: don't buy the stock if you can't stand volatility. -- applies multiplied by large leverage factor for options

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The way I understand it, this “event” is up in the air still with no solid answer from anyone, (although assumptions can be made with the data we have).. but regardless, anyone (even you!!) who has an opinion on the crash is assuming judgement. This event however is vastly different than something that can be looked up in Tesla Shanghai office spreadsheet and debunked immediately if false.

The driverless crash in Houston? They have video of the guy getting into the front seat and driving away. That crash was fairly conclusively a standard drunk Texas joyride crash. The guy just ended up in the back seat.

 

[Discoducky]

Hello! Circa 2012 here. Been there, done that. Blood pressure as flat as a pancake.

I’ve lived through the first fire, the first not-a-recall, the first journalistic ‘my Tesla needed to be flatbedded because I drove it around a parking lot until it died’, the first production hell, the first tweet, the first recession is coming, etc., etc...

This right now is NOTHING. I scoff at the attempt to create panic.

China peeps don’t want to buy and own the best cars in the world, pfft. Somebody else will buy them. Go ahead China, buy those electric death boxes if you’re so gullible to believe some random woman being an embarrassment to herself and her family. And the Chinese government, go ahead and be all big and bad butted. Two new factories coming online this year. Yours is about to get less and less important by the day if you want to play hardball.

Big Time, put your big boy short shorts on and settle down before you have an aneurism. It’s all good.

The first big bear broke my cherry to this kind of thing. I would suggest those that feel this is something to be worried about read this Cleantechnica article from June 2012: The EV Black Knight Rides Again: John Petersen on Mortal Enemies (many of us on TMC figured out who this guy really was and what his bias turned out to be was interesting at least)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What about this as a trigger for our steep afternoon drop? Certainly Tesla, as a super growth renewable energy company, was planning on very low tax bills for quite a long time. Perhaps the potential for a 15% minimum corporate tax shifted the algos? Then the MM's pile on of course.....

Low-tax stocks slide after report says Biden is pushing for a 15% minimum corporate rate

A report saying the Biden administration is pushing for a minimum corporate tax hit Amazon and other stocks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[mickle]

Enjoy the latest flyover. More S deliveries, a track resurface, and some zoom-in on Gigapress action.

Did anyone notice these? Any ideas what they could be?