Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vwman111]

Since it´s the weekend (at least in the US), a well thought out contribution to the advertising discussion:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411730281858490381

I guess that is much cuter than watching a grown man giggle every time he punches it

 

[Paul_SF]

You can tell the market is closed just by seeing the OT discussions in here…

 

[kanweg]

You can tell the market is closed just by seeing the OT discussions in here…

Well, the market is open here in Europe but without manipulation it is rather uneventful. (Currently at -0.16%).

 

[goinfraftw]

Pretty interesting historical reference chart

S&P500 Dividend Yield - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

The dividend yield is often regarded as a key metric to assess a stock's value. It indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. In other words, it measures how much

www.longtermtrends.net

 

[UCF3]

With all due respect to @Troy , it is not ok to be ok about being 2.6% off. His estimates serve a purpose which is more relevant to traders than investors, but there is still a purpose nonethelesss. To this end, being off 2.6% can mean the difference between TSLA tanking or rallying and so its disheartening to see him offer no critical reasoning for why he was off by that much. Maybe the nature of TSLA’s growth is making everybody’s job impossible to do with precision, I get that, but Troy will need to do better than saying “I forgot to include Elon factor.” If this keeps up, before long his voice will only add to the noise which I hate to see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410940383962533893

If you didn’t like @Troy being 2.6% off this quarter how did you feel when he was 10.7% off last quarter. I stopped looking at his numbers a long time ago. His spreadsheets were cool when the model3 reservations first started and people wanted to see how long they’d be waiting for their car. Time for him to move on to Lucid or Rivian or something that’s just getting started.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT, spent the weekend in San Diego, and Dog Beach had the usual parking frienzy, but I did not see any Teslas? None!
They are all over the SD area, but no Tesla dog owners here? And our interior is white, so no excuses.

Bandit clearly had trouble fitting in...
Was ruff!

 

[buttershrimp]

My wife is Israeli American, are you trying to give me a death sentence?

On second thought, here is what you do… find a video of Gal Gadot in a Tesla… subliminal message the heck out of her…. That way you get to keep your pinkies

You owe me buddy....

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Just heard from my boomer brother (living in Scotland) that he bought an ID4 to replace his 40 year old Volvo - if he's bought an EV then this means they're considered mainstream now

TSLA content--have to ask, since VW is supposedly the "competition" for the Model Y: Why would he spend his money on the VW instead of the arguably much better, longer range, similar cost, OTA-updated, and Supercharger supported, Model Y? (Assuming they're available in RHD now or will be soon enough?)

Please pick his brain on this as I'm sure we'd all like to know the thought process that leads to a non-Tesla choice.

Thx.

 

[jw934]

the financial webcast date was announced at 4:30AM on Friday 4/9, 2021. Then $TSLA jumped $100 the following next 3 sessions from the $677 close on Friday 4/9 to a peak of $780 on Wednesday 4/14, 2021.

If we are flat next week, and the Q2 earning's webcast date is announced next week some time, I am looking for a possible $100 jump the week after.

In addition to Q1 2021 data point, Q2 2020 share price also support the hypothesis: Local peak for $TSLA occurs not in the days after the P&D numbers, but happens the week following Tesla announcing the quarterly financial webcast date:

On Wednesday July 8, 2020, Tesla announced the quarterly webcast date. On the following Monday July 13, $TSLA jumped 16% intraday to over $350 in chart below, and did not match that peak even towards and immediately after the July 22 webcast.

July 13, 2020 news articles gave no company related news over the weekend to explain the spike. Example from The Motley Fool:

"

What happened​

Another day, another new high for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Shares of the electric-car maker soared as much as 16.2% on Monday. As of 11:50 a.m. EDT, the stock was up about 12%. This puts shares up more than 600% over the past 12 months and over 300% year to date.

Shares of the growth stock are likely up for a combination of reasons, including building on last week's momentum, speculation that the stock will soon be included in the S&P 500 index, and analyst commentary about the company's upcoming Battery Day event.
"

The data points lead me to believe that MM typically short TSLA the week of and the week after P&D numbers are out to max profit/minimize loss from options sold, but cover their short position the week after the webcast date is announced to reduce risk of loss going into the earning call. The algo and retail shorts/margin calls assisted to reach the actual peak.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tough question. IMHO joint ventures do not work, because it slows down the business. The only way to succeed (I would guess) is to hire a perfect Japanese president and his support personnel, who can bridge him and Elon. Many people still don't speak English here, and it's super hard to find an excellent entrepreneur-minded businessperson with enough English and cross-culture experience.
I think Microsoft was lucky to have such a good talent in Japan. At Tesla Japan, they don't even have an official president for a long time.

In other words - the Japanese can work together without the president. Isn't it funny? ;-)

In my experience Joint ventures never work as well as intended, when they work at all it's because one party dominates completely. It can happen. I firmly believe there are people quite capable of dealing with both Tesla and Elon as well as Japanese-specific issues. You obviously know vastly more than do I. However, in one Joint Venture in Japan that I negotiated it worked out very well for decades. The Japanese entity controlled it and ran it. The foreign entities dealt with international issues and not a lot else.

Zero question, in my opinion, not having fluent Japanese speakers and Japanese people will doom long term success. From my experience I suggest it si much the same almost everywhere, but in Japan and many other countries the denotation of a thing is likely to be misleading without understanding the connotations.
After living and working in more than a dozen countries I am certain that cultural and business practice understanding is essential to success.

Elon Musk, with triple citizenship and multilingual from early childhood, is pretty well equipped to understand the issues. That understanding is one reason Tesla owns 100% of China operations.

As to your last line: In my first job in Japan my 'subordinate' allowed me to understand who was in charge. My ceremonial duties and the odd technical assistance were for me to do. Otherwise all was smooth. "isn't it funny? ;-)".

I think Tesla has both technology and process that would be beneficial in Japan. The question is how and when to accomplish that.
For a time Mazda and Ford cooperated pretty well, didn't they?

The aging population distribution presents many difficult issues. Almost all my Japanese contacts are now superannuated, since they're my age. On the other hand similar challenges are now present in many major markets around the world.

 

[avoigt]

If you didn’t like @Troy being 2.6% off this quarter how did you feel when he was 10.7% off last quarter. I stopped looking at his numbers a long time ago. His spreadsheets were cool when the model3 reservations first started and people wanted to see how long they’d be waiting for their car. Time for him to move on to Lucid or Rivian or something that’s just getting started.

I'm also struggling to see the relevance of the forecast numbers. Tesla sells every vehicle they can produce and in addition, every quarter we have a new record, and 2 new Gigafactories start production in the 2H21.

IMHO, the statistics were important when Tesla struggled to get the Model 3 production under control in the early days but today I find them quite irrelevant unless we have massive production disruption and if that happens I don't need a detailed forecast anyway.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes. My mother says Camry is a prestigious car... And that 1 inch is crucial. Japanese parking lots are usually double-lined, and my Model X sometimes step on the lines on both sides, which means very rude to other people (I personally don't care much but ordinary people can not do that).

Above is my MX parked at a typical Japanese parking lot.
# my car is parked approx 1 inch to the right from the center in this video.

Were it not an X I wonder how to do it. I drove an X all around Italy, including through the city gates in Bergamo and elsewhere. Luckily the X does have those centimeter level indicators! Of course there rudeness in parking is less likely to offend.

 

[jw934]

Gary Black tweeted something that supports the assertion that the Bart Smith / Model S Plaid fire will result in zero liability for Tesla.

1. Gary questioned why would Bart hire a CRIMINAL DEFENSE attorney to sue Tesla?
Mark John Geragos is well known to defend celebrities against charges of wrongdoings. If someone wanted to start a class action against Tesla for defect causing the fire, they would hire a plaintiff attorney and not Geragos.

2. Furthermore, Bart removed the burnt out car from firefighter storage facility two days after the incident.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412092476291272706

 

[Tslynk67]

TSLA content--have to ask, since VW is supposedly the "competition" for the Model Y: Why would he spend his money on the VW instead of the arguably much better, longer range, similar cost, OTA-updated, and Supercharger supported, Model Y? (Assuming they're available in RHD now or will be soon enough?)

Please pick his brain on this as I'm sure we'd all like to know the thought process that leads to a non-Tesla choice.

Thx.

Probably because he wanted a hatch and there is no Model Y yet

TBH I'm delighted he bought a BEV, every ICEv displaced is a win

But I'll ask him what led him to that decision and report back

 

[wipster]

You owe me buddy....

View attachment 681599

Heck, I would buy a Model X if I could watch her get in it! Once even! She is truly a Wonder of a Woman!

 

[Hock1]

Gary Black tweeted something that supports the assertion that the Bart Smith / Model S Plaid fire will result in zero liability for Tesla.

1. Gary questioned why would Bart hire a CRIMINAL DEFENSE attorney to sue Tesla?
Mark John Geragos is well known to defend celebrities against charges of wrongdoings. If someone wanted to start a class action against Tesla for defect causing the fire, they would hire a plaintiff attorney and not Geragos.

2. Furthermore, Bart removed the burnt out car from firefighter storage facility two days after the incident.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412092476291272706

Not truly understanding the fundamentals and capabilities of a company you are manipulating could be hazardous to your health.

 

[Todd Burch]

Not sure why Gary is so publicly calling attention to the fire….

 

[Don TLR]

Sandy was doing a Mach E battery first look and this interesting chart of battery weight and kWH came up, hopefully it shows here as I shared at the 16:50 minute mark.

 

[Don TLR]

Attached chart

 

[Singuy]

Not sure why Gary is so publicly calling attention to the fire….

This story isn't over and I doubt the lawyers will go away quietly. Gary is creating doubt by smearing the victim to ensure whatever comes out later holds little weight.