Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Criscmt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418049110922330120

ts:515s Is it usual to have this number of cars?
Here's another shot showing quite a few MS, apparently these cars have been in the lot for weeks.
IF this number is higher than usual, any thoughts on what might be causing this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418050762953871363

 

[NicoV]

Tesla EU already has CCS with minor modifications to allow broader use. German OEM’s and others would like access to Superchargers on some basis, even thought the initial partisans may not be EU owned.

I wonder what the impact of opening the supercharger network to all cars will be on the existing fast charging networks:
- Tesla has about 700 supercharger locations in the EU (supercharge.info). No idea how many stalls, but probably at least 12 per location.
- Ionity (the biggest challenger) has 358 locations, with typically 4 stalls (my guestimate).
- FastNed (Fastned) is mainly in the Netherlands, with only 20 150kW locations outside the NL (almost all in Germany), and typically 4 stalls per location.
I’m not aware of any other international fast charging network in the EU, most of the alternatives are local, small and 50kW or lower.
So we have about 9000 Supercharger stalls, 1500 Ionity stalls and 100 FastNed stalls outside NL.
Who will pay an Ionity or FastNed subscription, when a Tesla subscription will give you an order of magnitude more charging possibilities?
Opening up the Supercharger network will have a severe financial impact on the competitors.

 

[AudubonB]

Also recent talk of BHP exiting fossil fuels. At least one somebody at the “big Australian“ has seen the future.

BHP considering exiting oil and gas business - Bloomberg News

Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) is considering getting out of oil and gas in a multibillion-dollar exit as it looks to speed up its retreat from fossil fuels, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

BHP commits to selling its thermal coalmines within two years

Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining

www.theguardian.com

Metalurgical coal will be the last to go. Without a carbon tax there’s little incentive to switch to hydrogen for steel making.

The tide may be turning, but of course our Federal govt remains beholden to fossil fuel interests. I’ll let you know if they start putting planet first. One possibility is that the US starts leaning on us to go green. That would pretty much do it…

Yes: metallurgical coal is really, really difficult to replace. For those of you who viewed the discussion of “physicochemistry” (was that it? Can’t now find reference) in The Limiting Factor’s discussion on saline extraction of Li from clays, this is another such situation. The immensely heavy charge of iron ore into a blast furnace needs the strength characteristics as well as the heat that met coal provides.
At least it is possible to extract SOXs from such combustion. The CO2, however…..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

ts:515s Is it usual to have this number of cars?
Here's another shot showing quite a few MS, apparently these cars have been in the lot for weeks.
IF this number is higher than usual, any thoughts on what might be causing this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418050762953871363

Dear lord what happened to that twitter account? He used to be a Tesla bull. In one of his tweets before the P/D numbers came out, he was estimating only a couple hundred S sold in Q2. Turns out they delivered 1,500 of them.......and he's moaning about 500-600 sitting in the lot? His entire tweet(s) are proven false by the fact that they made like 2,400 of them in Q2 and we've seen a steady amount of new ones being produced and loaded onto trucks and carried away.

Sure sounds like someone was heavy into call options earlier this year and when the stock didn't do what they wanted it to do, the Elon/Tesla blame game is on. His complaints aren't even logical. Nevermind the fact that Tesla has posted 100%+ growth in every quarter so far in 2021

 

[Criscmt]

Dear lord what happened to that twitter account? He used to be a Tesla bull. In one of his tweets before the P/D numbers came out, he was estimating only a couple hundred S sold in Q2. Turns out they delivered 1,500 of them.......and he's moaning about 500-600 sitting in the lot? His entire tweet(s) are proven false by the fact that they made like 2,400 of them in Q2 and we've seen a steady amount of new ones being produced and loaded onto trucks and carried away.

Sure sounds like someone was heavy into call options earlier this year and when the stock didn't do what they wanted it to do, the Elon/Tesla blame game is one. His complaints aren't even logical. Nevermind the fact that Tesla has posted 100%+ growth in every quarter so far in 2021

Helpful, I was having similar thoughts. But just wasn't sure if those were unusually high number of cars or not.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Helpful, I was having similar thoughts. But just wasn't sure if those were unusually high number of cars or not.

Those cars have been sitting there since they started production again of the S. Lot of different possibilities….they could be S’s set aside waiting on a part or they’re set to go to showrooms and thus aren’t priority, possibly going overseas but waiting on some kind of certification, etc….lots of possibilities.

The more important thing to pay attention to is are new S’s being produced and carried away…which they are

 

[StealthP3D]

In case there are others like me who don't really understand what impact redeeming the bonds early has...

This means Tesla will pay $1.8477 billion, or almost $48 million over the face amount to redeem these bonds. Of course, it is saving $95.4 million in interest per year over the next four years, so this redemption makes economic sense, particularly considering Tesla currently has significant cash on its balance sheet.

Taking almost $100 million/year of interest payments off the books moves the needle to recognizing the deferred tax credit one step closer (more likely than not to be profitable going forward).

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm guessing it means they can build 4680 w/o needing the dry electrode process. Maybe dry electrode is an optimization, not a requirement.

4680 production will absolutely use a DBE process. That decision needs to be made before any factory is produced given the alternative is a wet electrode process that requires football field length drying ovens. It sounds like Tesla is not getting the yield from the DBE process they need for commercial production just yet.

As a purely theoretical example - let's say they need 80 out of every 100 cells they make to meet their performance specifications before they scale up production (otherwise the cost per good cell would be too expensive when defective cell costs are included), the current process using DBE might only be producing 75 cells meeting these specifications. The DBE process is not quite refined enough yet due to some variability in output from the process. Tesla "just" needs to tweak the DBE process a little to get more consistent results to the point that Tesla is confident that 80 out of every 100 cells meeting their specifications.

The latest update from Elon was a couple of months ago stating that they will need somewhere between 12 and 18 months to get the process refined enough for commercial production.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.

You are also very handsome and dress snappily.

 

[printf42]

4680 production will absolutely use a DBE process. That decision needs to be made before any factory is produced given the alternative is a wet electrode process that requires football field length drying ovens. It sounds like Tesla is not getting the yield from the DBE process they need for commercial production just yet.

As a purely theoretical example - let's say they need 80 out of every 100 cells they make to meet their performance specifications before they scale up production (otherwise the cost per good cell would be too expensive when defective cell costs are included), the current process using DBE might only be producing 75 cells meeting these specifications. The DBE process is not quite refined enough yet due to some variability in output from the process. Tesla "just" needs to tweak the DBE process a little to get more consistent results to the point that Tesla is confident that 80 out of every 100 cells meeting their specifications.

The latest update from Elon was a couple of months ago stating that they will need somewhere between 12 and 18 months to get the process refined enough for commercial production.

Tesla’s own 4680 will use DBE, but they could have licensed tabless and other tech to their vendors, and the end product should have similar performance, only more costly to produce.

So it’s possible that Tesla could get 4680 cells from outside, if their own DBE process face some delays.

Also, outside vendors will still be needed even after Tesla has their own cells, and new capacity requirements are all going to be 4680. It’s reasonable to expect them to build up new 4680 production capacity or convert some existing ones.

 

[Chenkers]

4680 production will absolutely use a DBE process. That decision needs to be made before any factory is produced given the alternative is a wet electrode process that requires football field length drying ovens. It sounds like Tesla is not getting the yield from the DBE process they need for commercial production just yet.

As a purely theoretical example - let's say they need 80 out of every 100 cells they make to meet their performance specifications before they scale up production (otherwise the cost per good cell would be too expensive when defective cell costs are included), the current process using DBE might only be producing 75 cells meeting these specifications. The DBE process is not quite refined enough yet due to some variability in output from the process. Tesla "just" needs to tweak the DBE process a little to get more consistent results to the point that Tesla is confident that 80 out of every 100 cells meeting their specifications.

The latest update from Elon was a couple of months ago stating that they will need somewhere between 12 and 18 months to get the process refined enough for commercial production.

Tesla is definitely using DBE in their 4680 production lines. Below is a plan I've posted before of the main 4680 production floor for the battery cell building at Giga Berlin. This is one of over 2000 pages in one of the files I've looked through that was submitted for the recent planning application. When zoomed in to the anode cal/lam production area it states that it is using a "dry powder". The production floor includes tesla silicon production, anode and cathode mixing and anode and cathode cal/lam, foil coating and can stamping. There is no inclusion or space for any wet slurry or drying ovens in the 4680 production proposed so it must be DBE.

I also recall seeing a twitter thread this week talking about Kato Rd being at iteration 5 or 6 of the production line and basically ready for volume production (I haven't found this again, so if anyone knows it then please link). I take Elon's twitter comments as being about continuous improvement in the 4680 DBE process and not suggesting any significant delay in initial production.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Also recent talk of BHP exiting fossil fuels. At least one somebody at the “big Australian“ has seen the future.

BHP considering exiting oil and gas business - Bloomberg News

Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) is considering getting out of oil and gas in a multibillion-dollar exit as it looks to speed up its retreat from fossil fuels, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

BHP commits to selling its thermal coalmines within two years

Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining

www.theguardian.com

Metalurgical coal will be the last to go. Without a carbon tax there’s little incentive to switch to hydrogen for steel making.

The tide may be turning, but of course our Federal govt remains beholden to fossil fuel interests. I’ll let you know if they start putting planet first. One possibility is that the US starts leaning on us to go green. That would pretty much do it…

Some nice info in there!

Pressure from shareholders and worthless fossil fuel mines or oil & gas fields, no point paying for lobbying/bribes

Less resistance to renewables, electric cars. Indeed, lobbyists/politicians looking at new sources of support. This could flip right round, very quickly, country by country so that any fossil-supporting state is internationally isolated

 

[UkNorthampton]

Fossil fuels (and hydrogen) have fairly fragile logistics.

In the UK, strikes, farmers' protests, Buncefield Depot explosion have left petrol stations without fuel on a number of occasions. Electric cars are more resilient in my view. I think we're likely to get another reminder in the UK as the issues have only just started & will (in my opinion) get worse for a while.

I also wonder about German, Belgium flooding. It's affected electricity, but presumably fuel infrastructure too (underground tanks, electric pumps, blocked roads for fuel trucks). I wonder which will be easier to fix: electric or fuel supply. Solar + off-grid capable & not directly flooded ensures some transport/air-con/heat/air-filtering (fires).

Another push towards Tesla & other EVs

Supermarkets struggle to stock shelves as ‘pingdemic’ havoc spreads

Ministers urged to include retail staff and lorry drivers in exemption as self-isolating workers causes shortages

www.theguardian.com

 

[guidooo]

I wonder what the impact of opening the supercharger network to all cars will be on the existing fast charging networks:

Thought about that too. Concluded that the networks are mostly complementary and that no single network can on it's own handle the avalanche of BEV coming to our roads.

Subscription models only make sense for a customer if that person is expected to charge frequently at a given network.

 

[NicoV]

Thought about that too. Concluded that the networks are mostly complementary and that no single network can on it's own handle the avalanche of BEV coming to our roads.

Subscription models only make sense for a customer if that person is expected to charge frequently at a given network.

The question is whether a charging network that is not (partly) funded by car manufacturers is actually a viable business.
Taking the example of FastNed (see https://presspage-production-conten...ads/2519/2021investorpresentation-2.pdf?10000 page 35 for their latest financials). They have 6 million euro revenue and a net loss of 12 million euro. Their gross revenue is barely sufficient for paying the interest in their loans.
They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.
Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?

 

[petit_bateau]

The question is whether a charging network that is not (partly) funded by car manufacturers is actually a viable business.
Taking the example of FastNed (see https://presspage-production-conten...ads/2519/2021investorpresentation-2.pdf?10000 page 35 for their latest financials). They have 6 million euro revenue and a net loss of 12 million euro. Their gross revenue is barely sufficient for paying the interest in their loans.
They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.
Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?

FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.

 

[UkNorthampton]

FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.

My (limited) understanding is that Fastned cheaply nabbed a lot of motorway locations for charging WITHOUT opposing bids. These are premium locations, but Oil & Gas already had stations & weren't expecting EVs to take off (don't believe your own wishful thinking FUD) and also expected / lobbied for EV charging locations to have no facilities.

The restriction on Fastned (and presumably Tesla) has been overturned. Shell etc NOT happy. As EVs take off, Shell & other Oil/Fuel sale companies will go from having price gauging control along motorway routes (fuel, food) to having a nearby competitor with modern facilities more aligned with EV driving needs. Speculation: Tesla restaurants in Netherlands might be coming?

Court rules that Fastned is allowed to add shops and toilets

Fastned, the European fast charging company, won a case at the Court of The Hague regarding the issue of lease agreements for a shop and toilets at its stations

fastnedcharging.com

 

[guidooo]

They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.

I'm no financial wizard and am grateful for that. But think you are right that their business model hasn't proved itself yet by the test of time. As most scale-ups they burn money for scaling up.

But why make a difference between being partly funded by car sales (Tesla / Ionity); Oil money (New motion/Shell Recharge / Total); or new investment money sprinkled with a green sauce (Fastned) ? You expect the green money sauce to dry up soon?

Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?

Guess we agree with everything else being the same, it's expected the newly arrived competitor takes a larger part of a very big pie.

FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.

Cann't think of candidate with pockets deep enough, interested in car infrastructur and a similar mission statement.

 

[Singuy]

ts:515s Is it usual to have this number of cars?
Here's another shot showing quite a few MS, apparently these cars have been in the lot for weeks.
IF this number is higher than usual, any thoughts on what might be causing this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418050762953871363

Bad execution not from p&d report, not from Financials, but from a 10 minute videos with facts pulled from my ass.

 

[NicoV]

I'm no financial wizard and am grateful for that. But think you are right that their business model hasn't proved itself yet by the test of time. As most scale-ups they burn money for scaling up.

But why make a difference between being partly funded by car sales (Tesla / Ionity); Oil money (New motion/Shell Recharge / Total); or new investment money sprinkled with a green sauce (Fastned) ? You expect the green money sauce to dry up soon?

Not expecting the green money to dry up, but that’s the only thing FastNed has access to. Networks funded by car manufactures may also be funded by car sales in the hope of improving those sales. And oil money? I only expect those to use their money to try to delay the inevitable.
In the short run, the charging scene will be dominated by parties willing to invest money, but in the long run it needs to be able to fund itself and provide a return to its investors. With their scale, their technology advantages (vertical integration, prefab SUCs, solar and stationary storage) Tesla is better positioned than the others. The FastNed presentation I linked to contains a lot of interesting data. They expect the fast charging market to have 1 billion euro revenue in The Netherlands and 3 billion euro in Germany by 2030. What if a good chunk of that goes to Tesla?

Cann't think of candidate with pockets deep enough, interested in car infrastructur and a similar mission statement.

Shell?