Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

You know legacy OEM is scared out of their pants when they start posting about Tesla. Today..Mercedes-Benz taking a page out of Mike Levine's playbook:

View attachment 686912

Blah blah blah Tesla bans mercedes from their supercharging network for talking. Looks who is laughing now?

 

[Nocturnal]

That is NOT what Elon said:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Model3Owners Dry electrode is a key piece (one of many pieces) of the puzzle for lowering cost of lithium batteries. That said, it has required an *immense* amount of engineering to take Maxwell’s proof-of-concept to high-quality, volume production & we’re still not quite done." / Twitter​

All this means is that "volume production" hasn't arrived yet. Duh. When Austin and Berlin are ramped, then an immense amnt of engineering work will be behind them, but never quite "done".

The mere fact that Tesla has decided to alter the Giga Berlin application to include a new bty cell factory (not in the orginal application) speaks LOUDLY as to Elon's confidence in the outcome of this development process.

The rest is FUD. As usual.

Cheers!

Good call. At first I read that to mean he meant "not done" in reference to the dry electrode side, not the "volume production" portion. I believe you have it correct.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Todays pre market trading is another fine example of market manipulation

149K shares total traded in the Pre-market:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Jul 22, 2021 09:30 AM ET.
This page will resume updating on Jul 23, 2021 04:00 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$656.51 +1.22 (+0.19%)
Pre-Market Volume	149,099
Pre-Market High	$658.9 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$654.63 (09:08:05 AM)

As many others have noted here, when TSLA volume is low, it's a relatively light task for hedgies to jump in with a burst of short selling to swamp the order book, then the SP drops in response.

Luckily, we old hands are on to hedgie tricks, and we know what SP action is coming for TSLA in the next 3 days, 3 years, and 3 decades...

HODL.

Cheers!

 

[ChefBoyardee]

So I watched battery day again to check the original timeline:

To start realizing the advantages: 1 - 1.5 years, or October 2021 - April 2022
- Could mean 4680's in some but not all cars (Meaning they're on track / slightly ahead of schedule)
- Could mean using the new chemistry in current packs (Meaning they're ahead of schedule)

To fully realize the advantages: ~3 years, or October 2023
- I assume this means all cars produced having structural 4680

I'd say things are going pretty well

 

[Chenkers]

There was a check sheet posted on twitter, now I can't find it. It could have been deleted. It had six check boxes, two categories with three options. one of the options was 'driven or tested', the other was 'not contaminated'. The implication is that there were some faulty parts. Still surprised at the amount of time these vehicles have been there. My personal opinion is that there were multiple issues even beyond the check sheet, and they are waiting to have ample parts before they continue. Still this is a huge loss as the rate of S production remains very low.

I think you mean this one:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413340220779466756

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Blah blah blah Tesla bans mercedes from their supercharging network for talking. Looks who is laughing now?

This is all we need to know:

 

[Krugerrand]

There was a check sheet posted on twitter, now I can't find it. It could have been deleted. It had six check boxes, two categories with three options. one of the options was 'driven or tested', the other was 'not contaminated'. The implication is that there were some faulty parts. Still surprised at the amount of time these vehicles have been there. My personal opinion is that there were multiple issues even beyond the check sheet, and they are waiting to have ample parts before they continue. Still this is a huge loss as the rate of S production remains very low.

Meh. If anything the last 6 months has proven that Tesla doesn’t have to build even one more S or X to continue to grow and thrive, contrary to the position of some.

Those two models have served their purpose to the mission and I’d like this to be the last refresh done on these two models. I’d like to see them discontinued and become collectors items before the end of this decade. While they have excellent margins, they do consume considerable company resources in all areas. I’d rather see those resources spent on various other lower cost/priced vehicles, Tesla Energy, Tesla Solar, Tesla Insurance etc…

 

[Criscmt]

We need some action in US too, infomercials?

Too much misinformation in US, many positive minded, smart people in my circle have wrong views/information on Teslas, FSD, Elon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418200012551381001

 

[Beltsbear]

Meh. If anything the last 6 months has proven that Tesla doesn’t have to build even one more S or X to continue to grow and thrive, contrary to the position of some.

Those two models have served their purpose to the mission and I’d like this to be the last refresh done on these two models. I’d like to see them discontinued and become collectors items before the end of this decade. While they have excellent margins, they do consume considerable company resources in all areas. I’d rather see those resources spent on various other lower cost/priced vehicles, Tesla Energy, Tesla Solar, Tesla Insurance etc…

We know that. The 3/Y make Tesla profitable. But the amount of extra profit from normal S/X production would be in the hundreds of millions per quarter. So we really want that. Also every sale of the S/X is a little more salt against Mercedes who has sold zero EV's in the USA in 2020.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I don't see a good reason to discontinue the S and X. Doing so just means more gas guzzling big SUVs and sports cars will get sold. By all means stop updating them, but even if Tesla waits another 5 years to do a big S/X refresh, then thats a long period of time in which they are not sidetracked by that model.
People who already own a 3 or a Y, but come into more money / bigger family should have an option to stick with tesla.

Plus I think all companies benefit from having a low volume high price product in the lineup. That means new tech, new batteries, new ideas can be trialed on the S or X and then ported over to the main sellers once they are proven.

I doubt much board-level time was spent on the S or X from 2015-2019.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Those two models have served their purpose to the mission and I’d like this to be the last refresh done on these two models. I’d like to see them discontinued and become collectors items before the end of this decade. While they have excellent margins, they do consume considerable company resources in all areas. I’d rather see those resources spent on various other lower cost/priced vehicles, Tesla Energy, Tesla Solar, Tesla Insurance etc…

I think this is Elon's mindset as well. And perhaps Jerome took the hit for what was really leaderships half-hearted support of the refresh and continued production.

Tesla is successful because every effort is on par with the Apollo moon landing. They probably can't and shouldn't do afterthought projects. Is "keeping Model SX alive simply to pad margins" in the Master Plan? Let's move on to Energy products with the same furious pace as the Model 3 ramp.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't see a good reason to discontinue the S and X. Doing so just means more gas guzzling big SUVs and sports cars will get sold.

Sell large footprint dumbed down skateboards with no FSD to 3rd parties at high margin.

 

[LAexpress]

There was a check sheet posted on twitter, now I can't find it. It could have been deleted. It had six check boxes, two categories with three options. one of the options was 'driven or tested', the other was 'not contaminated'. The implication is that there were some faulty parts. Still surprised at the amount of time these vehicles have been there. My personal opinion is that there were multiple issues even beyond the check sheet, and they are waiting to have ample parts before they continue. Still this is a huge loss as the rate of S production remains very low.

What is difference between contaminated and containment. I think it is very big

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Not sure if anyone did check out that link from the Mercedes-Benz presentation but it was all future talk or stuff ripped right out of the Tesla playbook with things like the following. (I didn't watch the whole thing but skimmed through it and it was just a lot of repeating the same stuff)

• We hope to be 100% electric by 2030 where the markets conditions allow
  
• Chasing marginal gains that compound to substantial increase in range (reminds me of Tesla Battery day presentation)
• Mercedes Me "plug and charge" seamless handshake for charging coming soon.
• Pioneering body castings and sophisticated materials with the goal to incorporate them into future road cars.
• Next year they will demonstrate the real world driving range of the claimed EQXX
• Gigafactory in the US
• Battery recycling coming soon in 2023 pending regulations.
• Partnering with selected experts in the field.
• Currently have 5 BEVs will have "8 BEVs next years on 3 continents with batteries from our Worldwide network".
• "We here at Mercedes-Benz are ready to make the electric switch when you are". [Time stamp 39:00]

 

[30seconds]

Did Mercedes detail where their magic battery factory is coming from?

 

[goinfraftw]

Meh. If anything the last 6 months has proven that Tesla doesn’t have to build even one more S or X to continue to grow and thrive, contrary to the position of some.

Those two models have served their purpose to the mission and I’d like this to be the last refresh done on these two models. I’d like to see them discontinued and become collectors items before the end of this decade. While they have excellent margins, they do consume considerable company resources in all areas. I’d rather see those resources spent on various other lower cost/priced vehicles, Tesla Energy, Tesla Solar, Tesla Insurance etc…

It'll be a sad day when Tesla will have to retire parts of the "S3XAY CARS" lineup.

 

[gene]

This seems to be Tesla's new placeholder solar strategy. While sales cost remains insanely high marketwide, they've pivoted to a pure solar+battery model where they will usually pencil out to a similar price point as the solar-only competition.

Basically they're replacing $5k in sales cost with a $7k battery. Pretty good deal for both sides IMO, though I'd like to see their model grow more flexible and continue offering standalone solar. At least while Powerwall prices are so high.

I think Elon got impatient with the marketplace's inability to scale, so he's jumping ahead a few years and prepping for residential solar aggregation. Not a terrible idea for the time being. Another indicator of how out in front the Energy side is.

Fast forward to 2024 and there are new FERC rules in place allowing for aggregated distributed storage to buy and sell into grids. Not only will these Tesla installs be ready to go, but they've go "market leader" Sunrun out there installing Powerwalls for them as well.

Think of that dynamic. A Sunrun lease owner also has a Powerwall. The Tesla virtual utility goes live. Who do we think is taking the lion's share of those service fees? Certainly not Sunrun. Yet another reason to avoid solar leases like the plague.

In California with our PUC and the politics going on by the utilities, a PV system without a battery is becoming useless. Tesla's insistence on including a Powerwall is doing the customer a favor.

Sunrun salesmen haven't pushed leasing (PPA) in years. They have been moving away from it. Yes, they have PPA on the website but the people I know who work there are moving away from it, as they should.

 

[Matt Porter]

Did Mercedes detail where their magic battery factory is coming from?

Existing partners, plus one unannounced partner for the gigafactories.

The most interesting thing I thought was the axial flux motors from YASA | Electric Motor Manufacturers | Automotive OEM | YASA Ltd who has been acquired by Mercedes.

Maybe partnership with Sila-Nano which many were speculating Tesla was involved with at one point.

In-house motors and inverters which seems a departure from the usual "buy it from Bosch" path

 

[FreqFlyer]

Strange articles from "progressive" LATimes. The next space race is Lithium or the replacement of it. Yes, this is relevant to Tesla's stock price.

Is California’s electric car revolution bad for the planet?

By 2035, California will ban the sale of gas-powered cars in an effort to address climate change and push drivers toward electric vehicles.

www.latimes.com

The LATimes article from Yahoo (no paywall).

California's electric car revolution, designed to save the planet, also unleashes a toll on it

In the name of climate action, California pushed the world toward electric cars. But building enough of them is creating its own environmental crises.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Mengy]

Not sure if anyone did check out that link from the Mercedes-Benz presentation but it was all future talk or stuff ripped right out of the Tesla playbook with things like the following. (I didn't watch the whole thing but skimmed through it and it was just a lot of repeating the same stuff)

• We hope to be 100% electric by 2030 where the markets conditions allow
  
• Chasing marginal gains that compound to substantial increase in range (reminds me of Tesla Battery day presentation)
• Mercedes Me "plug and charge" seamless handshake for charging coming soon.
• Pioneering body castings and sophisticated materials with the goal to incorporate them into future road cars.
• Next year they will demonstrate the real world driving range of the claimed EQXX
• Gigafactory in the US
• Battery recycling coming soon in 2023 pending regulations.
• Partnering with selected experts in the field.
• Currently have 5 BEVs will have "8 BEVs next years on 3 continents with batteries from our Worldwide network".
• "We here at Mercedes-Benz are ready to make the electric switch when you are". [Time stamp 39:00]

That's a very milktoast presentation. Sounds like zero threat to Tesla anytime this decade.