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I think the formats play a key role too. Besides the CATL SR MIC Models (prismatic), all Teslas use cylindrical cells. LG pouch cells seem to have issues. Potentially extending that to pouch cells in general as they seem to have expansion issues.
Maybe, maybe not: Nissan Leaf is the first mass produced EV and sold over 500,000 worldwide by end of 2020 according to Wikipedia. A cursory Google search of "nissan leaf recall battery" has "Battery Bonding Plates" as the only battery-related recall, which seems to me nothing to do battery itself.

According to this not-so-anecdotal evidence of Nissan Leaf, I would say pouch cells in EV are not fundamentally flawed.

Maybe LG is incompetent, maybe not. We'll see.
 
Maybe, maybe not: Nissan Leaf is the first mass produced EV and sold over 500,000 worldwide by end of 2020 according to Wikipedia. A cursory Google search of "nissan leaf recall battery" has "Battery Bonding Plates" as the only battery-related recall, which seems to me nothing to do battery itself.

According to this not-so-anecdotal evidence of Nissan Leaf, I would say pouch cells in EV are not fundamentally flawed.

Maybe LG is incompetent, maybe not. We'll see.
Leafs haven't had fire issues, but they've had heat related degradation issues.
 
yeah, Wu Wa's 800 3 is spot on and that makes the 1,000 number more credible.

Ah that's a good eye and does support the 1,000 daily Model Y number as well as that number being a sustained number.....not just a peak of one day and then the rate drops back down.

I'd say it's fair to assume that August and September production is going to be baseline 40k with upside potential. September could possibly be 45k. That's with me giving plenty of buffer for "maintenance days" in Aug and Sept. If they're actually able to sustain the 1,800 number all throughout September, you're talking about above 50,000 production.
 
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I agree that Cybertruck will pull in first time new truck buyers, but I also think they will dominate work truck fleets. When the accountants run the numbers on total cost of ownership and cost to operate per mile, it will be a no brainer. In fleet purchases, money is the bottom line and companies won't pay more to get less (Ford).

Good point about potential business usage of Cybertrucks. :)

Meanwhile, I suspect that a great many folks will buy them in lieu of SUVs. :cool:
 
Please everyone reading this and people who follow Cramer, please cancel your reservations asap. So i can move up in the line. Thank you.

I'm actually in the market for a pickup truck, first ever, and now understand more about the appeal and the utility. FIrst, it gives a very high view of the road.
This is not the advantage that people make it out to be. We have an F-150 4x4 that is taller than Cybertruck and the better handling of our Model 3's is far more important to safety than any view improvement the driver gets from sitting high. And you won't sit that high in Cybertruck unless you drive around on paved roads like a peacock with the chassis jacked way up to max. Just silly. The only time it is an advantage to sit high is when you want to make a right turn and there is a big truck to your left blocking your view down the road. If sitting high improved road safety, it would be a contest to see who could sit the highest. And as vehicle heights leapfrogged one another, road safety would steadily decline. This argument is like arguing night driving would be safer if every car had four crab-boat lights mounted to the roof facing forward so everyone could see better.

Second, on price, more pickup trucks are cheaper than their SUV comparable models. The back in an SUV like the bed in a pickup are not used that often, but when needed, it is super handy to have a pickup bed available to carry larger items without jamming anything-- i'm looking at you costco shoppers (which includes me).
When my wife and I both drove gas cars, we would take our F-150 the 20 miles to Costco for our (roughly) quarterly re-stocking trips. Our average trip was for around $600-$700 worth of mostly food items. Since we both have Model 3's for the last 3 years we take one of those because neither of us wants to drive (or ride in the truck) even though it's still almost new with only 50K miles after 12 years. With COVID we have been making fewer (bigger) trips to Costco averaging closer to $800-$900 worth of food and everything still fits in the Model 3! It takes a minute or two longer to load but is much easier to unload when we get home because I no longer have to climb up into the bed to get everything out and to open and close the manual hard tonneau cover. So, it's actually easier to fit everything into the Model 3 than it is to get everything out of the truck. And, we don't have to drive it or stop for gas as often. I see other Costco shoppers with their trucks at Costco and it's VERY rare to see ANY of them with more stuff or with bigger stuff than we have. This is one more silly excuse people use for why they drive a truck. The Cybertruck will solve most of those problems with it's electric drivetrain, motorized tonneau cover, and the ability to lower the rear and raise the front to make stuff easy to unload. It will also drive and handle better so no reason to avoid it.

Finally, back to price again, still do not understand the metrics that will allow build and sale of the cybertruck with that range, towing capacity and acceleration at the advertised price point. It should be a reminder that tesla is working really hard to contain costs, presumably on batteries which would make the CT feasible.
Theoretically, it's due to the shorter production line, fewer robots, no paint shop and the decreasing price of batteries and power electronics over the last decade. The strength/tow capacity comes from a structure with superior engineering (uses the structural materials more efficiently than twin I-beam body on frame). I hope Tesla got the price/spec ratio correct because the obvious solution to cover for a mistake is to delay until prices match projections. I don't think they will need to delay beyond the availability of plenty of 4680 cells.

The Cybertruck is going to revolutionize the US light truck market. Cramer is going to say "I always knew Tesla had some special magic to make their ugly truck a wild success". :rolleyes:
 
No way Musk has time to pleasure read so this must be about another stock split.

I think he’s referring to the energy transition as the change coming to sweep away the old guard (and maybe he’s a bit ticked off). The book he names discusses the end of an era:


Yes, the administration can use climate change as cover to announce a bailout for legacy automotive to build PHEV’s—that no one will plug in and that will keep dealers service bays full—while the transient princes and princesses of government and legacy automotive prance on the podium.

Yes, the administration can also announce an Autopilot "safety" investigation a couple days prior to AI day.

Yes, the main stream media, including the WSJ and The NY Times, can use that announcement in a smear campaign to discredit Autopilot and give cover for a bear raid (short lived and ineffective as it was).

Yes, base people can convince the fools, dodderers, and corrupt to do these and other repugnant things while all participate in flamboyant spectacle.

Will it matter? No, they are being washed aside by events and, when not forgotten by history, they will be remembered with disdain.
 
The Cybertruck is going
revolutionize the US light truck market. Cramer is going to say "I always knew Tesla had some special magic to make their ugly truck a wild success". :rolleyes:
Along with all the advantages you listed, I cannot wait to see what kind of wrapping gets applied to the Cybertruck. That flat body is a virtual canvas for some awesome artistic creations (and some weird and ugly ones too).
 
it’s one thing to compare the cybertruck with the f150L when they’re both just spec sheets on a webpage. But if Tesla starts cranking out Cybertrucks at high volumes while Ford is still diddling around with a tiny production run people are going to be comparing a real truck that they actually stand a chance of owning to a unicorn that’s worse in every way.

and this is by far and away the most serious effort by the big three! In a market of what, 2.5 million vehicles a year in the USA!? Of the highest profit margin vehicles sold?

I need a cigarette
 
I sure miss @Intl Professor here. Thanks for the post @AudubonB
Better "extinguished" than extinct, like wise leadership nearly everywhere. Pogo is right and Godot never comes except in occasional false flags. But at least TSLA is up today. I remember the effort of solace by my first wife's Wellesley roommate: "what do you expect from a day which begins by getting out of bed." Morose at such a young age!
 
This is not the advantage that people make it out to be. We have an F-150 4x4 that is taller than Cybertruck and the better handling of our Model 3's is far more important to safety than any view improvement the driver gets from sitting high. And you won't sit that high in Cybertruck unless you drive around on paved roads like a peacock with the chassis jacked way up to max. Just silly. The only time it is an advantage to sit high is when you want to make a right turn and there is a big truck to your left blocking your view down the road. If sitting high improved road safety, it would be a contest to see who could sit the highest. And as vehicle heights leapfrogged one another, road safety would steadily decline. This argument is like arguing night driving would be safer if every car had four crab-boat lights mounted to the roof facing forward so everyone could see better.


When my wife and I both drove gas cars, we would take our F-150 the 20 miles to Costco for our (roughly) quarterly re-stocking trips. Our average trip was for around $600-$700 worth of mostly food items. Since we both have Model 3's for the last 3 years we take one of those because neither of us wants to drive (or ride in the truck) even though it's still almost new with only 50K miles after 12 years. With COVID we have been making fewer (bigger) trips to Costco averaging closer to $800-$900 worth of food and everything still fits in the Model 3! It takes a minute or two longer to load but is much easier to unload when we get home because I no longer have to climb up into the bed to get everything out and to open and close the manual hard tonneau cover. So, it's actually easier to fit everything into the Model 3 than it is to get everything out of the truck. And, we don't have to drive it or stop for gas as often. I see other Costco shoppers with their trucks at Costco and it's VERY rare to see ANY of them with more stuff or with bigger stuff than we have. This is one more silly excuse people use for why they drive a truck. The Cybertruck will solve most of those problems with it's electric drivetrain, motorized tonneau cover, and the ability to lower the rear and raise the front to make stuff easy to unload. It will also drive and handle better so no reason to avoid it.


Theoretically, it's due to the shorter production line, fewer robots, no paint shop and the decreasing price of batteries and power electronics over the last decade. The strength/tow capacity comes from a structure with superior engineering (uses the structural materials more efficiently than twin I-beam body on frame). I hope Tesla got the price/spec ratio correct because the obvious solution to cover for a mistake is to delay until prices match projections. I don't think they will need to delay beyond the availability of plenty of 4680 cells.

The Cybertruck is going to revolutionize the US light truck market. Cramer is going to say "I always knew Tesla had some special magic to make their ugly truck a wild success". :rolleyes:
Since i'm in Texas, and moved from SoCal, i think the visibility on turning would be advantageous here in Texas. There are quite a few pickup trucks and certainly at many intersections, it is challenging to turn. Also getting run off the road is pretty common by pickup trucks, including nearly getting run over with our MX with bikes/bike rack.

Recently in Chico, CA, where there are also alot of pickup trucks, and elevated height from a rented 4runner helped out alot.
 
Ford sells around 900,000 F-150 trucks/year and yet, after three years in production they don't even plan to make 9% of that? And that's after doubling their previous production targets? o_O Who woulda thunk?

/s

I have to hand it to Ford though, they sure know how to put a good spin on weakness - "due to strong demand for the Lightning, we are doubling our previous production targets". And, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Ford ever released or leaked their previous targets. So this is a way to release very small targets while trying to make them sound big. And, they always have the option to go back to their original, miniscule, targets and say, originally, we never planned to produce more than this anyway!

And this is supposed to be a threat to Tesla? :rolleyes:
Really good point!

So, Ford's original goals were:
7,500 F150L in 2022
27,500 F150L in 2023
40,000 F150L in 2024

🤯

And that's with over 120K reservations! It's as if they don't want to make them....or something.
 
Yes, base people can convince the fools, dodderers, and corrupt to do these and other repugnant things while all participate in flamboyant spectacle.

Will it matter? No, they are being washed aside by events and, when not forgotten by history, they will be remembered with disdain.

Like poetry.
 
Good point about potential business usage of Cybertrucks. :)

Meanwhile, I suspect that a great many folks will buy them in lieu of SUVs. :cool:

In my case, the CT fills the gap for a larger "SUV" without paying the X price. I'm glad I don't have to take my money elsewhere when the big family car has to be replaced in a couple of years,