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One of my concerns has been the "balls to the wall" approach that Tesla has scaled production with multiple Gigafactories on multiple continents. It's brilliant until it isn't. It's hard to know when you'll saturate the product demand and when you do, you could have an abundance of product...

I think it means picking up TSLA at the then current SP of $160 would be brilliant in future hindsight....

Newb question... Tesla is spending billions of Capex on Nvidia H100 GPU training clusters...how long will these be useful? Will there be an H101 next year? Someone wanna take a stab at explaining the initial investment vs upgrade / maintenance requirements for me?

Agreed. Also, ignore RT for a moment, as FSD improves over the next several months+, it could meaningfully impact demand for the existing fleet...but, Tesla will "at capacity".

Sorry this happened to you. I hope Tesla analyzes the data to see FSDs contribution to this accident. It would be too easy to look at the "accident while on FSD" and say, "rear ended...that's not our fault". Clearly there is something to be learned here if they are interested.

I think true disengagement data is only known on real FSD vs shadow mode. One is purposeful disengagement, while shadow might just be a difference in personal preference. FSD often does things differently than I do (sometimes better) and I often let it and choose to not disengage. You miss out...

Tesla gets to learn about passenger pick up and drop off from Waymo. For free. It's nice to have someone to learn from (including what not to do). The driving part, Tesla will figure out themselves, but passenger pick up and drop off is not something Tesla does yet. So much of what Tesla does...

Yes, but it's still almost 55 shares. Is FSD worth 55 shares of TSLA? What does that exchange look like like in 12 months? 24 months?

Possible. Lowest cost RT is the one with the lowest TCO. Starting with a low cost car that doesn't need thousands of dollars worth of bolted on sensors, has the latest (most?) energy-efficient drivetrain and electrical system is certainly a possible mic drop moment for RT. Not to mention the...

Once we get through this valley of death, there should be a lot of money moving from overbought stocks into the oversold one(s). I'm not normally a seeking alpha fan, but this article had some good data. Source: Magnificent 7: Earnings Preview (SA Quant)

IF Elon believes that there's a "red wave" coming in November during the US election, it stands to reason that the recently passed IRA, which funds the EV tax rebates, could be seen as vulnerable to change in 2025. I wonder if this influences his calculus for RT priority. This is a political...

Kinda wondering if Tesla of late is shaking many of the bulls in this thread....maybe I should re-strategize my DCA approach....seems like we could go quite a bit lower over the next several months....I may need to be buying for many months....

While I tend to agree with your post, the $25K Tesla is quite a bit more since it requires other significant costs, ie insurance, electricity, registration, tires, cleaning, etc. TCO is significant even for a $25K vehicle.

I like what you're suggesting, but felt Tesla did something similar with 4680s. Didn't they originally aim to have Berlin, and then Austin build MYs with structural 4680 packs, with a risk-avoiding strategy of non-structural 2170s as the "backup" plan. I don't know if I'm misremembering or have...

The uneasiness that I have with Elon "betting the company" on robotaxi is his track record with predicting FSD. He has demonstrated a blind spot for consistently over estimating solving FSD. I have great confidence in Tesla's ability to ultimately solve FSD. What makes Elon's ability to foresee...

I hope we don't see this....imagine the flipside of this, when Tesla has to correct this ridiculous judgment and ensure that the world's hardest working CEO hasn't worked for years for free. I would hate to see what the reversal of the reversal would do to that quarter's EPS and, thus, feed the...

This is what I'm interest in most....not 12.4's absolute performance, but the rate of progress of 12.4 vs 12.3 which has been praised so well....I'll keep reading for these opinions.

It seems obvious to me that the recent price reduction could easily be unique to "supervised" FSD, leaving the door open for a future price increase or additional tier for nag-free unsupervised. Possibly Tesla feels increasing the take rate by reducing the price will get them data faster and...

FIFY

Maybe. I'd certainly like this as an owner, but not so sure as an investor. I'd need to see the data Tesla has. I suspect we'll get there as the chemistries evolve towards the "million mile" pack life. On the current and past packs, I'm not sure what liability would come with that extension...

I bet if they lowered it to $0.99/mo the take rate would exceed 90%....the goal isn't to just have the highest take rate....

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-unveil-much-awaited-155800966.html

Yeah, well they just changed the net-metering policy to force power sent back to the grid to only receive wholesale compensation (~$0.02/kWh), daily connection fees($15/mo and rising) to pay even if you don't use grid power. There seems to be no end in sight for the slowing of these price...

I know EV vehicle sales softening is a trigger word for some, but many of us are looking for a sensible understanding for Tesla's disappointing Q1 P&D numbers. As for ICEV sales that now show YoY growth, could a factor be that a year ago, ICEV inventory was still low- having not fully recovered...

Not an AI expert by any means, but this behavior is strange, hard for me to explain, and makes me question the overall method. When I use the turn signals on FSD, it seems to take that command under advisement, starts to execute the request, but frequently changes it's mind after starting the...

It is risky. Investors typically don't like risk. I sure hope we get valuable and honest perspective and clarity on this subject during the Q1 conference call...

Reuters chose to go with the most sensational narrative of the information leaked to them. They could have gone with the more conservative version that is more likely true, that RT might have been bumped up a peg and gen3 bumped down a peg on Tesla's priority list. Greed for clicks and...

If investors have invested "well over $10B" in capital expenditure for FSD, but FSD isn't priced into the current SP...what happens next?

Ummmm, you say prioritize, but the Reuters article literally says "Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on"

I don't know about your state, but California is particularly litigious.... $5K seems low.....

With all due respect, I've been thinking this for years and it is NOT true. What I still believe, though, is: But they cant keep it down FOREVER.

Seems like the train will have long left the station by this time. Nevertheless, I bid you good luck!

Interesting. Folks who invested early enough, already got their 10 bagger, but had to risk bankruptcy. Folks who are coming to the party late, getting in now, don't have to worry about Tesla going bankrupt, but they have to deal with "a single man with bizarre mood swings" as they HODL for...

Clear. Manipulation. Full stop.

A robotaxi can produce Tesla far, far more revenue than a next gen low cost vehicle private sale. The only real question has been how feasible it is to have a working robotaxi (and network) and the timetable. Without working FSD, Tesla should certainly support low cost gen 3 to the public. If...

I suspect curating the required "gold standard" video clips in sufficient quantity and quality to address each of the currently identified performance gaps is the bottleneck to progress today since compute is no longer the long pole. They have data from millions of vehicles if they can actually...

Thanks to the several replies on FSD commoditization. While Tesla's current fleet is clearly untouchable ATM, a competitor doesn't need 6M vehicles to create their FSD, rather, per Elon's comments, they need around 1M quality video clips to feed a NN before it starts to "work". A serious...

Someone remind me, is the Xiaomi SU7 state sponsored and /or are they losing money on each of these? Seems like China continues to work overtime to actually bring the competition and is trying to buy marketshare...If state sponsored, I expect them to retail for significantly more outside of...

Hmmmm....no longer beta. Now "supervised". Seems like a significant nomenclature shift.

So, if we assume Tesla is now past local maxima solution, and they are now marching towards the actual FSD solution (while arguable, evidence of late implies this certainly could be true)....any competition paying attention now knows exactly what to do (and they can skip the last 6 years of...

My news feed has an unusually high number of negative Tesla stories lately...feels like the MSM is approaching maximum negativity. I'm looking to buy more at various levels, especially if we tick down (hard to pass a good sale, right?). Not advice and my timing is nominally poor.

I guess since the distinction you're making is in regards to 5+ years old cars, I'm wondering...does it really matter at this point? Tesla offered something "coming in the future" and while they seem to be approaching the solution, still don't have it yet. It's been so long a wait for some...

I haven't sold anything, but I will be buying more at $16x and $15x if they return. I know it's unpopular in this thread to want lower SP, but the stock has been depressed for so long, I'd personally enjoy briefly revisiting those prices one more time for some final buys before the inevitable...

50% loss is certainly possible for anyone who bought at ATH and sold recently. Even if they didn't sell, they are wishing they hadn't bought when they did because in hindsight, they could have had twice as many shares! Ask me how I know:oops:

True. The mainstream media is likely waiting for some "incidents" to sensationalize before they bother to mention v12 FSD....

Impressive. Weekend share:

Good to hear...

The car injury lawyers are certainly contributing to our insurance rates going up. Once FSD is involved, I personally see the lawyers coming out of the woodwork for a shot at Tesla and their deeeep pockets. Unfortunately, it will be epic until enough cases are lost that the wild gamble seems so...

Since we know Tesla is, in fact, trying various advertising approaches....what do you think about a campaign to educate against FUD? They could pick a commonly misrepresented concept and advertise/educate against the FUD for awhile and then move on to the next. Perfect FUD narratives include ...

Fair enough....but I'm feeling a little more bullish and I am going to pick up some more around where we're at, just looking for any angles for (likely) further downside that I always seem to miss. Don't feel compelled to participate if it's not your thing.