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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Cheer up. Tesla is now worth more than all the Bitcoin in the world.
I would argue that Tesla has been worth more than all the ACCESSIBLE Bitcoin in the world for a while now.. ;-)

I know I have many shekels not accessible, although I am confident I will get to them. I have ex-colleagues with 10x and 100x that amount in similar positions who are putting signifiant resources into their recovery.

Recent estimates are that over 20% of all currently mined bitcoin will NEVER be recovered or return to circulation or transfer. I doubt whoever runs bitcoin will decide to make some change and it will be DECADES till bitcoin might take some action on in-active tokens, but I put that chance at low. At current mining speeds we're WELL into the 22ND CENTURY (so past 2100) before all might be mined (well, unless quantum computing somehow takes everything to a different level - which it will - and it might also break all the encryption at the same time) so i'm putting the current value of the current ACCESSIBLE bitcoin at at LEAST 200B less than the current "market cap" would indicate
 
I pulled up the Jan'22 750-850 strike PUTS and that ranges trades for between 1 and 5$ a share.. so there is NO SMART MONEY that thinks we're getting anywhere near this price action in the next two weeks.
I think there is no need for price action near $850 for those PUTS to drive the share price lower. Here's one possibility (hope my assumptions are true):

Let's say that there are lots of bulls who short sold many of those far OTM PUTs, which I am quite sure is true. This results in open short positions which certainly use up account margins. As the stock price is lowered, these short PUTS will require additional margin even if the share price is above the strike. If the account margin reaches 100% , some brokers will automatically resolve the margin call which in some cases involves selling TSLA shares.

Here is one example from Twitter. In a later post, in reply to comments, he responded that he quickly sold a few dozen shares to avoid the margin call. Another prime example of reflexivity - if the share price drops too much, it could result in more selling even by the long term bulls.

Screenshot 2022-01-08 at 1.47.48 PM.png


Good thing we have lots of buyers at that $1000 range so I agree there is almost no chance of $850, unless a black swan event happens. And for precisely this reason, many options traders use bullish put spreads instead of simply selling puts, since they use up less margin in these scenarios.
 
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I think there is no need for price action near $850 for those puts to drive the share price lower. Here's one possibility (hope my assumptions are true):

Let's say that there are lots of bulls who short sold many of those far OTM PUTs, which I am quite sure is true. This results in open short positions which certainly use up account margins. As the stock price is lowered, these short put positions will require additional margin even if the share price is above the strike. If the account margin reaches 100% , some brokers will automatically resolve the margin call which in some cases involves selling TSLA shares.

Here is one example from Twitter. In a later post, in reply to comments, he responded that he quickly sold a few dozen shares to avoid the margin call. Another prime example of reflexivity - if the share price drops, it could result in more selling even by the long term bulls.

View attachment 753517

Good thing we have lots of buyers at that $1000 range so I agree there is almost no chance of $850, unless a black swan event happens.
Black swam events do certainly occur, although for this example above I think the swam would ALSO have to actually be named Omicron
 
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Disclaimer: I would encourage anyone who is interested in options trading to do some research to understand fully how they work, for writing AND buying before making it a part of their financial investment strategy.

Please don't take any of this as overall criticism, I'm not going down that path on a Saturday - but, there are inaccuracies and fallacies in your response here that belie any ability to make an accurate interpretation of what the risk/reward is for writing the covered calls in the scenario I have described.

If we're going to use numbers and maths for the exercise, the fundamentals and the numbers should be at least close to accurate and the maths, both operator and formula should be as well.

In the example you write above, the current stock price of Tesla "was at $900" isn't really relevant to the maths at exercise, either at expiration or before (depending on what country the options are written in) since it's the STRIKE PRICE that is relevant and in your example above that is written at $1000. So, IF called away, you're never going to get LESS than $1000 for those shares, so not $900 at all regardless of where the stock price is. although, I will say you're NEVER getting called away if the stock is trading LESS than $1000 at expiration of before.. regardless the gross amount IF called is not less than $1000.

The 2nd point I'll make is, for a $1000 stock, the PER SHARE option price (and you can't really buy less than 100 shares making one CONTRACT - save for some very few index options and maybe a FEW stocks) is most likely NEVER going to be 5$ PER SHARE, or $500 per contract. The ONLY time I could imagine a % price option as that would be about 60 seconds before market close on the third Friday of every month. ;-) .

Just for kicks and giggles I pulled up Mar'22 TSLA ATM strike ~1050$ and it's trading at $110 PER SHARE, so you'd net an $11,000 premium for the one contract CC. Even if I use the percentage from your hypothetical above (trading at $900, strike sold at $1000) lets call it 111% above current price, we'll pick a strike at 1130 for Mar'22 and that traded on Friday at $75 A SHARE, so 15 TIMES the $5 example you noted.. so the net credit would be $7500. It does make a different since that is more than 10 times the expected premium in your example. Overall, IF called away at some point, above $1130 you're covered for $1130+$75 per share or $1205. While less than in your hypothetical when trading at $1200 its not less than LESS than. If you fail every time to sell CC and always get called away, then one is certainly doing something wrong or haven't read the tea leaves write (RIGHT/WRITE I think there is an option pun in there somewhere) so yes, the NET result would always be losing money and being called - and probably VERY frustrated.

But, also as I said, the GAP UP that can and sometimes does occur is what CAN bite you, but the financial impact is not the same level of magnitude that you indicated at all. Its one of the reasons I don't often SELL LEAPS which are so far out in TIME well anything can happen.. but at times, BUYING the OTM LEAP can be VERY rewarding if I'm really bullish, but others less so and the LEAPS see much less volume than the 30-90's or before and after earnings, etc.
You're right that I mixed up my $900 purchase price and $1000 strike price. Corrected what I wrote above and attributed to you.

But having said that, the price at the time you write the call IS relevant, as is the expiry date. The context was that you're writing the covered call in the expectation that it will expire worthless. If you're talking about calls that are over two months out, of course the premium is high. There's a non-trivial probability that the price will go up significantly in those two months; this is what the Greeks are all about. Let's come back on March 22, and see where TSLA is trading at relative to the $1205 it would need to be for your trade above to be profitable (even if the shares do get called away).

Calls for $1130 strike next friday last traded at $6.24. So a little (but not much) above my hypothetical $5.
 
Hey, I don't pay much attention to Max Pain but I see you guys talking about it enough to accept it as a legitimate thing.

So, is this a situation where TSLA will come under massive selling pressure through the 21st followed by a massive move up going into ER? Is this a setup for a short term opportunity?
That max pain number is a bit misleading. Due to 1/21 being a LEAP expiration, there are a lot of very deep-in-the-money calls that are skewing max pain lower. As Tesla Facts has analyzed, most of those are fully hedged by the market makers and won't have much of an impact in trading between now and then.
 
You're right that I mixed up my $900 purchase price and $1000 strike price. Corrected what I wrote above and attributed to you.

But having said that, the price at the time you write the call IS relevant, as is the expiry date. The context was that you're writing the covered call in the expectation that it will expire worthless. If you're talking about calls that are over two months out, of course the premium is high. There's a non-trivial probability that the price will go up significantly in those two months; this is what the Greeks are all about. Let's come back on March 22, and see where TSLA is trading at relative to the $1205 it would need to be for your trade above to be profitable (even if the shares do get called away).

Calls for $1130 strike next friday last traded at $6.24. So a little (but not much) above my hypothetical $5.
I WOULD consider writing an $1130 call for $6.24 per share for "next week" (and just so we're clear, "next week" is NOT the Jan '22 options expiration week, that would be the NEXT next week) somewhat MORE like "picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer", but in this case i would consider it more a Model X coming at me from over 2 miles away after having already driven 331.5 miles on a charge, while it's snowing and below 10 degrees, pulling a trailer. (okay, I know for a fact that this model wouldn't make it 331.5 miles towing a trailer, let alone in -10 below temps.)

I also would NOT be writing the Mar '22 contract I pulled up, I only used that as an example to continue with your current price/strike price/options price hypothesis. While I do like selling against the position (and have sold against the 100 shares I kept from the late Dec entry) I usually go a bit more OTM while expecting less than 10% of the underlying in premium. I'm still only super-human and do have to be able to sleep at night.
 
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Production cost per is are falling as production increases (operational leverage), but raw materials cost is increasing. Specifically, aluminum, lithium, and semi-conductors are all up significantly. This increased imput cost is likely fully paid for with Tesla's price increases over the past year. The gold std is margins, which are up.

Cheers!
I expect that material cost rises in 2022 will be more than offset by at least $3,000 per car savings on:

1) Shipping and logistics (factories much closer to customers, no 10% EU import taxes for Model Y from Berlin)

2) Gigapress usage increasing

3) Labor costs (Fremont lower share of overall production)

4) LFP battery in standard range cars

5) New factories having optimized layout that's much better than Fremont

6) Continued miscellaneous innovation of all kinds

7) Improving quality

I give 30% chance this year that Tesla sets an all-time auto industry record for net income. Toyota's best was FY2021 with $21.1B net income. If not this year, 99.9% chance Tesla is #1 by next year.
 
Sugar! Elon is in my head. Just had the first serious conversation with the wife about upgrading to FSD. I’ve got some serious FOMO here people.

Convince us we shouldn’t. Go.
We've purchased FSD on about 4 or 5 MS's so far

DO NOT FOLLOW OUR LEAD.

Elon has been promising so much BS on FSD for so damn long, and I kept believing, following along . . . and wasted tens of thousands of dollars based on his rosy projections.

Perhaps he will, one day, FINALLY have it working.

Until then, shut your wallet as it just encourages him to continue to over promise and UNDER deliver . . .
 
We've purchased FSD on about 4 or 5 MS's so far

DO NOT FOLLOW OUR LEAD.

Elon has been promising so much BS on FSD for so damn long, and I kept believing, following along . . . and wasted tens of thousands of dollars based on his rosy projections.

Perhaps he will, one day, FINALLY have it working.

Until then, shut your wallet as it just encourages him to continue to over promise and UNDER deliver . . .
Except the difference is there's actually a some what FSD available today vs when you bought in. Definitely gives me joy being part of the beta team as I get a update every 2 weeks. It doesn't matter if it's an improvement or a regression. The process to me is worth some money.
 

So after weeks of test production (including visiting Norway) Giga Berlin has already started production in hush hush mode (2000 cars allowed) - and Giga Texas after weeks of hush hush test production (finished cars kept indoors) will start production in "two weeks" (if Dan Ives knows his stuff).

This is really fantastic! I think I need a sip of Teslaquila this evening!

Edit: Watching vids like this one I can see that the number of trailers backed into the loading docks has increased in Berlin. Not many at the same time yet but enough to believe that they have ramped up a little:

 
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I guess BMWs CEO is smarter than Elon Musk….😄
For Zipse, these parts are made through “a normal casting process.” The really demolishing bit of the BMW CEO speech came when he said that “there is no economic reason to have very large integrated parts in these vehicles.”

I guess the producers of the Ultimate Driving Machine(TM) don't need a stiffer, lighter chassis.
 
I WOULD consider writing an $1130 call for $6.24 per share for "next week" (and just so we're clear, "next week" is NOT the Jan '22 options expiration week, that would be the NEXT next week) somewhat MORE like "picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer", but in this case i would consider it more a Model X coming at me from over 2 miles away after having already driven 331.5 miles on a charge, while it's snowing and below 10 degrees, pulling a trailer. (okay, I know for a fact that this model wouldn't make it 331.5 miles towing a trailer, let alone in -10 below temps.)

I also would NOT be writing the Mar '22 contract I pulled up, I only used that as an example to continue with your current price/strike price/options price hypothesis. While I do like selling against the position (and have sold against the 100 shares I kept from the late Dec entry) I usually go a bit more OTM while expecting less than 10% of the underlying in premium. I'm still only super-human and do have to be able to sleep at night.
I'm trying to hone my covered call strategy. I focus on weeklies. Even though it requires more babysitting, I think there is more premiums to be made with less risk by writing weekly OTM CCs. Theta decay is strongest in the last week, and I love being short and watching value diminish day by day.

Question for me is how aggressive to be wrt strike price. Up until now, I've been pretty conservative (15-20% OTM), but I'm considering getting a bit more aggressive. Problem for me is I am a big long term bull and continue to convince myself a parabolic move up is coming. While my CCs for last week were successful, it sure would have reduced the sting of last week's trading if I had sold more aggressive CCs.
 
I'm trying to hone my covered call strategy. I focus on weeklies. Even though it requires more babysitting, I think there is more premiums to be made with less risk by writing weekly OTM CCs. Theta decay is strongest in the last week, and I love being short and watching value diminish day by day.

Question for me is how aggressive to be wrt strike price. Up until now, I've been pretty conservative (15-20% OTM), but I'm considering getting a bit more aggressive. Problem for me is I am a big long term bull and continue to convince myself a parabolic move up is coming. While my CCs for last week were successful, it sure would have reduced the sting of last week's trading if I had sold more aggressive CCs.
Last weeks rally only lasted one day. Otherwise writing call options would be much harder to mansge
 
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We've purchased FSD on about 4 or 5 MS's so far

DO NOT FOLLOW OUR LEAD.

Elon has been promising so much BS on FSD for so damn long, and I kept believing, following along . . . and wasted tens of thousands of dollars based on his rosy projections.

Perhaps he will, one day, FINALLY have it working.

Until then, shut your wallet as it just encourages him to continue to over promise and UNDER deliver . . .

FSD at peak potential is worth 100K to me, some days 200K.

I paid between 6K-10K so I'm not all that bent about it.

Time is the true asset where you cannot buy more and everyone has the same

While I might have had formal education in Economics, I don't think you need one to properly valuate what FSD cost you.

FSD cost is 10,000. You feel like you wasted 10,000.

It's
10000 subtracting
ANY USAGE you got out of it. (Tangible)
Being part of the journey. (Intangible)

Is it that hard people?
 
Last weeks rally only lasted one day. Otherwise writing call options would be much harder to mansge
For sure. But there just aren’t that many instances where the SP moves up continually throughout the week. Much more common to see a spike on Monday followed by sideways moves or meandering the rest of the week. Selling OTM CCs midway through Mondays has worked well for me.

And since I write CCs against just a fraction of my shares, I’m perfectly happy to have to manage my CCs!