Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Sure, this isn't the best setup for this type of implementation. But they might be testing this way as a low volume test of the eventual urban tunnels. In those cases they would want to support low occupant vehicles. Plus, they don't have a tram vehicle yet anyway.

Low occupant vehicles are better for pandemics. Especially with HEPA filtration.

 

[Stretch2727]

Nothing new here. Tesla re-writing code for available chips and its vertical integration advantage.

Why Tesla Soared as Other Automakers Struggled to Make Cars

The yawning disparity between the performance of the electric car company and established automakers last year reflects the technological change roiling the industry.

www.nytimes.com

The legacy manufactures are trying to re-vertically integrate especially due to the chip shortage but also realizing they have little control to integrate all the software with 3rd parties supplying almost all electronics. I really have my doubts about them trying to develop new teams to develop software and hardware and innovate rapidly at the same time. My prediction is there will be many delayed launches or vehicles launched half baked much like we saw the the VW ID3.

 

[ggr]

I would say though, that writing the CC especially in a tax advantaged account you can just immediately RE-BUy the underlying with the money from being called away.. yes, for some brokerages/custodians there is a cleaning period. -I don’t have that since I carry some balances and have either margin or the brokerage settles me with cash immediately. The only real time I can’t easily replace is when there is a limit UP on the underlying, and that usually does not happen or if I THINK that will happen I may have already bought a higher strike OTM call to hedge for that scenario. I’m not going to go into my track record since that is banned, but the number of times I end up getting called away is less than one of the phalanges.

I think there's a fallacy in what you wrote. Suppose, for sake of argument, when $TSLA was at $900, you wrote a covered call for strike $1,000. You get to pocket, let's say, $5 per share for the call(*), so $500. Now TSLA zooms to $1200, and someone exercises their call, and it gets assigned to you. (This might or not be at expiry time. It isn't under your control.) They buy your 100 shares for $900 $1000 each, so now you have $90,500 $100,500 in your account. You can't "just immediately RE-BUy the underlying with the money from being called away.." you only have enough money to buy 75 83 shares. That $500 premium you got just cost you 25 17 shares of TSLA at $1200 each.

(*): clearly I made up $5 premium, it depends on how far out the call is, but then the chance of it going wrong depends on that too, but that's why they call it "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". When it does go wrong, it hurts a lot.

Edit: @tivoboy correctly points out that I got my $900 and $1000 mixed up above.

 

[lafrisbee]

Sugar! is right. I don't like paying for promises, which is why we didn't order initially, and why we have been ok with price increases and not feeling like we're missing out.

But it feels so much closer now. And we don't know what monthly subscription costs are going to be in the future. If I could be sure the monthly cost would be $200, I'd for sure skip the upgrade now and pay monthly when the time comes. But who knows, it could be $300 or higher, and most likely increase over time.

So I'm also experiencing serious FOMO. So no, I can't be convincing in arguing you shouldn't upgrade; you absolutely should! We have another week of trading before the price increase. It will sure be easier to hit the 'upgrade' button if the SP is at $1,200 next week.

I think of it as a bottle of tesla tequila. I never would drink it (tequila tastes like the dead dog pond smelled), but just owning it is cool. Is it $10,000 cool? What percentage of your wealth answers that question.
But while I wouldn't drink tequila, having the trinket behind the home bar might turn into something worth much more than the cool factor IF level 5 is ever reached.
So if you believe in Tinkerbelon clap your hands.

 

[Buckminster]

Hey, I don't pay much attention to Max Pain but I see you guys talking about it enough to accept it as a legitimate thing.

So, is this a situation where TSLA will come under massive selling pressure through the 21st followed by a massive move up going into ER? Is this a setup for a short term opportunity?

Could be. Or SP hangs out at 1026 for 2 weeks. MMs will want to limit the damage. Getting under 1000 on the 21st would be a big win. Will they have the power?

 

[ALdawg]

I post this not to bitch about a particular service experience but to bring up weaknesses in Tesla’s current service as it may impact growth in the future. I have been battling intermittently faulty USB ports in my Model 3 for months and have had two mobile visits and two out of state in person visits so far without resolution. Parts seems to take at least a few weeks necessitating another visit. It will be three out of state visits before my MCU is finally replaced. Separately, during a mobile repair the tech accidentally damaged my windshield. These things happen but I had to travel overnight out of state to have it fixed for free at a service center. Later in the service chat there was significant confusion on why I was not paying for the windshield and it was suggested that I visit a service center in person to speak to a manager (phone call option not offered and I live out of state). Later while waiting for my repair I met an an early Model S owner with a failing battery still under warranty. He was also frustrated with chat only communication and no real ability to escalate the urgency of his situation to get scheduled for service. Despite loving the car and being able to manage with less than 240 miles range, the communication and availability of service and parts were causing him to consider other options including an ICE Mercedes. He simply has service needs that were not being met and expects more when he spends over $100K for a car.



Some will respond saying that Tesla sells all the cars they can make and more investment in service does not impact the mission. This is perhaps short term thinking. I look forward to my third Telsa (CyberTruck), but service will cost future sales if improvements are not made. It would be interesting to better understand what metrics Tesla follows to measure the quality of service. Zach mentioned increasing the service center footprint and increasing mobile to improve wait times but that does not change some of these communication frustrations or part delays.

 

[Lessmog]

I post this not to bitch about a particular service experience but to bring up weaknesses in Tesla’s current service as it may impact growth in the future. I have been battling intermittently faulty USB ports in my Model 3 for months and have had two mobile visits and two out of state in person visits so far without resolution. Parts seems to take at least a few weeks necessitating another visit. It will be three out of state visits before my MCU is finally replaced. Separately, during a mobile repair the tech accidentally damaged my windshield. These things happen but I had to travel overnight out of state to have it fixed for free at a service center. Later in the service chat there was significant confusion on why I was not paying for the windshield and it was suggested that I visit a service center in person to speak to a manager (phone call option not offered and I live out of state). Later while waiting for my repair I met an an early Model S owner with a failing battery still under warranty. He was also frustrated with chat only communication and no real ability to escalate the urgency of his situation to get scheduled for service. Despite loving the car and being able to manage with less than 240 miles range, the communication and availability of service and parts were causing him to consider other options including an ICE Mercedes. He simply has service needs that were not being met and expects more when he spends over $100K for a car.



Some will respond saying that Tesla sells all the cars they can make and more investment in service does not impact the mission. This is perhaps short term thinking. I look forward to my third Telsa (CyberTruck), but service will cost future sales if improvements are not made. It would be interesting to better understand what metrics Tesla follows to measure the quality of service. Zach mentioned increasing the service center footprint and increasing mobile to improve wait times but that does not change some of these communication frustrations or part delays.

Exactly. A song we have heard far too much of is that Tesla needs to and intends to improve their communications.
Execution is way overdue on that. In fact, it seems Tesla has been actively reducing the communications channels. Not good.
EOM.

 

[Discoducky]

Seems like Monday will most likely test support again, but we should all know that TSLA is a roller-coaster and we could either bounce off support or not. It will be interesting to see for sure, but we also know how crazy amazing production was so that is a great indicator for Q4 earnings.

I get some solace from Corey's analysis after a week like last. Buy at support levels is the not-advice mantra.

And looking at Tesla's support levels, lets hope on Monday we bounce off of ~$1025.

 

[tivoboy]

I think there's a fallacy in what you wrote. Suppose, for sake of argument, when $TSLA was at $900, you wrote a covered call for strike $1,000. You get to pocket, let's say, $5 per share for the call(*), so $500. Now TSLA zooms to $1200, and someone exercises their call, and it gets assigned to you. (This might or not be at expiry time. It isn't under your control.) They buy your 100 shares for $900 each, so now you have $90,500 in your account. You can't "just immediately RE-BUy the underlying with the money from being called away.." you only have enough money to buy 75 shares. That $500 premium you got just cost you 25 shares of TSLA at $1200 each.

(*): clearly I made up $5 premium, it depends on how far out the call is, but then the chance of it going wrong depends on that too, but that's why they call it "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". When it does go wrong, it hurts a lot.

Disclaimer: I would encourage anyone who is interested in options trading to do some research to understand fully how they work, for writing AND buying before making it a part of their financial investment strategy.

Please don't take any of this as overall criticism, I'm not going down that path on a Saturday - but, there are inaccuracies and fallacies in your response here that belie any ability to make an accurate interpretation of what the risk/reward is for writing the covered calls in the scenario I have described.

If we're going to use numbers and maths for the exercise, the fundamentals and the numbers should be at least close to accurate and the maths, both operator and formula should be as well.

In the example you write above, the current stock price of Tesla "was at $900" isn't really relevant to the maths at exercise, either at expiration or before (depending on what country the options are written in) since it's the STRIKE PRICE that is relevant and in your example above that is written at $1000. So, IF called away, you're never going to get LESS than $1000 for those shares, so not $900 at all regardless of where the stock price is. although, I will say you're NEVER getting called away if the stock is trading LESS than $1000 at expiration of before.. regardless the gross amount IF called is not less than $1000.

The 2nd point I'll make is, for a $1000 stock, the PER SHARE option price (and you can't really buy less than 100 shares making one CONTRACT - save for some very few index options and maybe a FEW stocks) is most likely NEVER going to be 5$ PER SHARE, or $500 per contract. The ONLY time I could imagine a % price option as that would be about 60 seconds before market close on the third Friday of every month. ;-) .

Just for kicks and giggles I pulled up Mar'22 TSLA ATM strike ~1050$ and it's trading at $110 PER SHARE, so you'd net an $11,000 premium for the one contract CC. Even if I use the percentage from your hypothetical above (trading at $900, strike sold at $1000) lets call it 111% above current price, we'll pick a strike at 1130 for Mar'22 and that traded on Friday at $75 A SHARE, so 15 TIMES the $5 example you noted.. so the net credit would be $7500. It does make a different since that is more than 10 times the expected premium in your example. Overall, IF called away at some point, above $1130 you're covered for $1130+$75 per share or $1205. While less than in your hypothetical when trading at $1200 its not less than LESS than. If you fail every time to sell CC and always get called away, then one is certainly doing something wrong or haven't read the tea leaves write (RIGHT/WRITE I think there is an option pun in there somewhere) so yes, the NET result would always be losing money and being called - and probably VERY frustrated.

But, also as I said, the GAP UP that can and sometimes does occur is what CAN bite you, but the financial impact is not the same level of magnitude that you indicated at all. Its one of the reasons I don't often SELL LEAPS which are so far out in TIME well anything can happen.. but at times, BUYING the OTM LEAP can be VERY rewarding if I'm really bullish, but others less so and the LEAPS see much less volume than the 30-90's or before and after earnings, etc.

 

[Skipdd]

“Today, there is just a “car market,” and EVs are winning.”

No more “Tesla Killers:” It’s becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the “EV market” from the mainstream auto segment — TESLARATI

Those who have followed the Tesla story for years would remember a time when practically every single concept car and production EV was dubbed as a “Tesla Killer.” The idea then was that while Tesla held the lead in electric cars due to its first-mover advantage, the company’s share in the EV...

apple.news

My favorite sentence in the article [bold and italics are mine]. “General Motors might have announced various lofty targets, and US President Joe Biden might have dubbed GM CEO Mary Barra as the person who electrified the auto sector, but numbers don’t lie.”

 

[tivoboy]

Could be. Or SP hangs out at 1026 for 2 weeks. MMs will want to limit the damage. Getting under 1000 on the 21st would be a big win. Will they have the power?

Magic 8 ball says, ppl have been building their positions for this for about seven trading days. So I know it's going to shock EVERYONE, but yes I think this is highly likely. I do NOT see likely the ringing the bell at $750 or really even below $850, and I don't over emphasize the Jan LEAP contracts influence on any companies share price regardless of what MAX PAIN says for almost any stock.

update: for kicks ang giggles I pulled up the Jan'22 750-850 strike PUTS and that ranges trades for between 1 and 25$ a share.. so there is NO SMART MONEY that thinks we're getting anywhere near this price action in the next two weeks. Or else there is a lot of very QUIET smart money that is going to make a fortune

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479854921302294529

 

[dhanson865]

Can’t sell ’em? Fine. Stick ‘em in a tunnel somewhere and hit the “Print Money” button.

If they can't sell them can they use them as loaner cars at service centers? Just Title them as corporate cars and keep them forever as loaners.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479854921302294529

Barron's - 11:50 EST: Tesla’s New Austin Factory To Start Up Soon. It’s Going To Be Wild.

Excerpt:

...Saturday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote that Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA) new facility in Austin, Tex., known as Gigafactory Texas, will begin production in about a week. That means more Model Y crossover vehicles and, just as important, the Cybertruck will be arriving on U.S. roads shortly.

“Based on our analysis of Giga Austin it appears paperwork is now clearing the way for Model Y production starting over the next 7 to 10 days,” wrote Ives. “Launching the Austin production in early January is very important to Tesla expanding both domestic and global production of Model Y’s which are set to have a massive year in 2022.”...

 

[Boomer19]

Seems like Monday will most likely test support again, but we should all know that TSLA is a roller-coaster and we could either bounce off support or not. It will be interesting to see for sure, but we also know how crazy amazing production was so that is a great indicator for Q4 earnings.

I get some solace from Corey's analysis after a week like last. Buy at support levels is the not-advice mantra.

And looking at Tesla's support levels, lets hope on Monday we bounce off of ~$1025.

my ‘id’ pov is:
in recent sessions especially, TSLA has been dependent on the overall market rather than tesla’s trajectory. maybe teslas performance is the only reason tsla is at the mid trend and not lower. more doom and gloom to start next week may mean we break that 1020 range forcefully and find the lower resistances that that video talked about, amongst others here like @tivoboy , etc.
p&d, earnings, other material events are things that can change the trend.

earnings will be great. i’m betting they move us higher, before or after. if we can hold the 1020 (or whatever the technical support is) or even the next level down, we’ll probably be in the upper half of the range again, or maybe even better (if you believe fact-checking’s tweets about excess temporary shorting that may likely be unwound)

options volume and large amounts of leverage seem to be driving the stock price (and likely overall market, hence the rate hike fear…and easing or balance sheet shedding). if the collective street is using a lot of margin, which you know it is considering the zirp we’ve been living in for years, than the corrections are violent.


—- or if i’m way off on this someone please feel free to correct me. like i said, id pov

 

[Boomer19]

Magic 8 ball says, ppl have been building their positions for this for about seven trading days. So I know it's going to shock EVERYONE, but yes I think this is highly likely. I do NOT see likely the ringing the bell at $750 or really even below $850, and I don't over emphasize the Jan LEAP contracts influence on any companies share price regardless of what MAX PAIN says for almost any stock.

and there you go. almost on queue to my last post a few min ago…

basically i interpret (and not to single you out, but many of the technical people are saying similar things- and we all know this is not advice etc etc )
that barring a psychological reversal next week, we probably break the 1000 level. which is all more reason folks should keep some spare ammo at all times. although i’d really prefer to hold the 1k mark (which kinda means holding the ~1020 mark) until we can get some momentum into earnings

 

[FireMedic]

I post this not to bitch about a particular service experience but to bring up weaknesses in Tesla’s current service as it may impact growth in the future. I have been battling intermittently faulty USB ports in my Model 3 for months and have had two mobile visits and two out of state in person visits so far without resolution. Parts seems to take at least a few weeks necessitating another visit. It will be three out of state visits before my MCU is finally replaced. Separately, during a mobile repair the tech accidentally damaged my windshield. These things happen but I had to travel overnight out of state to have it fixed for free at a service center. Later in the service chat there was significant confusion on why I was not paying for the windshield and it was suggested that I visit a service center in person to speak to a manager (phone call option not offered and I live out of state). Later while waiting for my repair I met an an early Model S owner with a failing battery still under warranty. He was also frustrated with chat only communication and no real ability to escalate the urgency of his situation to get scheduled for service. Despite loving the car and being able to manage with less than 240 miles range, the communication and availability of service and parts were causing him to consider other options including an ICE Mercedes. He simply has service needs that were not being met and expects more when he spends over $100K for a car.



Some will respond saying that Tesla sells all the cars they can make and more investment in service does not impact the mission. This is perhaps short term thinking. I look forward to my third Telsa (CyberTruck), but service will cost future sales if improvements are not made. It would be interesting to better understand what metrics Tesla follows to measure the quality of service. Zach mentioned increasing the service center footprint and increasing mobile to improve wait times but that does not change some of these communication frustrations or part delays.

I am sorry for your experience. You seem to be giving them a fair shake on this and I certainly empathize.

However, I’ve had both types of service experience; excellent service, and OK service with poor communication.

I will concede this is one of the weakest parts of their business and there is certainly room for improvement…But imagine having a Mach-E that is brand new and is bricked. There is nearly zero service staff with the ability or interest in servicing your vehicle.

The world is going to move to all electric in the very near future and currently these are the only real options; despite leading, GM currently has 0 products on offer. I’m not aware of the experience with polestar, And perhaps the Chinese brands are doing better.

I have been using apple products for years, and their service is really no better. That has given me pause; but never stopped me from buying and recommending their products. And I’m certainly not sell the stock (mostly because Taxes).

 

[tivoboy]

Magic 8 ball says, ppl have been building their positions for this for about seven trading days. So I know it's going to shock EVERYONE, but yes I think this is highly likely. I do NOT see likely the ringing the bell at $750 or really even below $850, and I don't over emphasize the Jan LEAP contracts influence on any companies share price regardless of what MAX PAIN says for almost any stock.

update: for kicks ang giggles I pulled up the Jan'22 750-850 strike PUTS and that ranges trades for between 1 and 25$ a share.. so there is NO SMART MONEY that thinks we're getting anywhere near this price action in the next two weeks. Or else there is a lot of very QUIET smart money that is going to make a fortune

Tried to edit this but timer expired? Has it been shortened.. this should read

"I pulled up the Jan'22 750-850 strike PUTS and that ranges trades for between 1 and 5$ a share"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Barron's - 11:50 EST: Tesla’s New Austin Factory To Start Up Soon. It’s Going To Be Wild.

Excerpt:

Here's an even funnier excerpt from the same article by Alan Root:

Tesla delivered more than 936,000 vehicles in 2021. The vast majority—more than 911,000—were Model S sedans and Model Y crossover vehicles. Tesla doesn’t provide a more detailed breakdown. The Model S and Y are Tesla’s lower-priced, higher-volume Models. The Model Y is the hottest seller right now and CEO Elon Musk has high hopes for the vehicle.

Yeah, journalists really are this dishonet. He definately knows better.

Hilarilous.

 

[Ipcress]

Nothing new here. Tesla re-writing code for available chips and its vertical integration advantage.

Why Tesla Soared as Other Automakers Struggled to Make Cars

The yawning disparity between the performance of the electric car company and established automakers last year reflects the technological change roiling the industry.

www.nytimes.com

The legacy manufactures are trying to re-vertically integrate especially due to the chip shortage but also realizing they have little control to integrate all the software with 3rd parties supplying almost all electronics. I really have my doubts about them trying to develop new teams to develop software and hardware and innovate rapidly at the same time. My prediction is there will be many delayed launches or vehicles launched half baked much like we saw the the VW ID3.

The "new" is having accurate balanced reporting about Tesla show up on the front page of the New York Times. I'm glad to see it.