Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Fire in Freemont.

Firefighters Battle 2-Alarm Fire at Tesla Factory in Fremont

The fire was outside the building and mainly coming from carboard pallets, firefighters said.

No injuries were reported and no evacuations were necessary.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fire in Freemont.

Firefighters Battle 2-Alarm Fire at Tesla Factory in Fremont

Really man, add some context to that post. It's a fire from a bunch of cardboard. Seriously

 

[Discoducky]

Burning cardboard outside the factory. Deja vu.

I wonder if there were security cameras pointed at that ?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Really man, add some context to that post. It's a fire from a bunch of cardboard. Seriously

It’s in the attached article.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Really man, add some context to that post. It's a fire from a bunch of cardboard. Seriously

TSLAQ is on the scene and has determined that the entire facility was destroyed, lol. They're pretty bummed that it broke out after trading close on a Friday though.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

But for what purpose?

If you're accumulating in a heavy way, dark pools favor you because you can essentially say you'll purchase a block of X number of shares at a agreed upon share price and then let a broker go out on the open market and collect the shares bit by bit.......and in reality, it's coming from primarily retail shares that are either getting margin called or stop loss'd.

If that doesn't sound shady enough to you just wait. Said brokers are also market makers who can go out, naked short a stock to drive the price down, forcing those margin calls, stop losses, etc, collect the shares and then proceed to give the shares to the dark pool buyer. Just think of how many shares the brokers were able to collect the day after earnings....meanwhile you had this large amount of buying power not participating because they know they're going to get their shares on dark pool market.

There's no limits to the corruption that happens on a daily basis on Wall St. Just gotta live with the fact that you're in a casino and the house is making up the rules as they go to favor them.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Boring day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489666444245680131

 

[woodisgood]

Is “Freemont” like claws on a chalkboard for anyone else or just me?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

TSLAQ is on the scene and has determined that the entire facility was destroyed, lol. They're pretty bummed that it broke out after trading close on a Friday though.

But....the tents were untouched so production will not be halted

 

[nativewolf]

But for what purpose?

To make money

 

[Bobfitz1]

Man what I would give for a Berlin announcement over the weekend.......

Berlin is being held up by bureaucrats slow walking final approvals. What is holding up Austin now? A month or two ago the reports were they were nearly ready to start production and the final approvals from Texas non regulators were immanent.

 

[Thumper]

Cardboard fires at Fremont seem to be a recurring problem, not serious but recurring. Maybe they could get a sprinkler system for those spots and some better handling regimens.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Berlin is being held up by bureaucrats slow walking final approvals. What is holding up Austin now? A month or two ago the reports were they were nearly ready to start production and the final approvals from Texas non regulators were immanent.

The situation between Austin and Berlin are fundamentally different

Austin has already started production. There are no further approvals needed and Tesla stated pretty clearly that they are just waiting for the Austin-made Y, as in the car itself, to pass certification. Which is a process every new model car has to go through in the US. Tesla can, and is already producing Model Y's with deliveries starting next month.

Berlin is waiting on final approval to actually start production (though they have a limit of 2,000 Model Y's they can build for testing purposes)

 

[Duffer]

Your comment illustrates a point I have made before, namely that this change will not be a benefit for all countries.

So - obviously oil (and gas) exporters will see huge economic negatives from reduced fuel sales.

But also - what we are seeing is that the shift to BEV in the manner that Tesla are doing it is driving the manufacturing ecosystem to a very different structure. Previously a typical automotive plant made about 250k vehicles/year, with the larger ones being at about 500k/yr being the ones that were the pacesetters, and the global outliers being a few plants of >1m/yr. Plus of course lots of outsourcing to tier 1s. What that meant was that even relatively small countries could have a bit of auto-manufacturing (even if not an assy plant) and as a consequence the overall balance-of-payments of many countries was tolerable.

Now Tesla are already showing that their minimum scale is 500k/yr and personally I expect Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin to be at 2m/yr fairly soon. And in a highly vertically integrated manner. In a way that the competitor BEV companies will have to mimic if they are to be competitive. Ultimately I expect Tesla to aim for 4m/yr, but let's just use 2m/yr per plant as a thought-experiment. If the previous typical plant was 250k and the new typical is 1m (and previous pace-setter was 500k and new pacesetter is 2m) then there will be only a quarter as many factories in the new world vs the old world.

So (for example) countries like Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Austria will probably not have even one auto factory. Places like UK would slim down from ~6 to 1 if they are lucky. Places like Canada would slim down from ~12 to 3. Winner-takes-all consequences will result in severe balance-of-payments stresses for losers. If you cast your mind back to the run-in to WW1 beggar-my-neighbour economic policies were one of the big stressors in the system. Such stressors will return in spades.

The same issue takes place at a personal human level as the new factories are becoming increasingly productive in terms of employees/car/year. So overall far fewer factories employing fewer people.

Economic inequalities naturally increase both between and within countries in such a scenario.

There will be a heck of a lot of stresses in that.

I quoted this post because it points out, in fairly gentle terms, how the pivot from fossil fuels will look... initially.

Those of us here in this thread, at one time or another, have either commented about or hit the like/love button regarding the demise of fossil fuels. The collective "WE" mention aka gloss over the disruption that will surely happen, instead focusing on all of the real benefits of a world powered by renewable energy. Since the earnings call, there has been a vocal group that apparently had their knickers twisted because the stock price didn't go up. This has caused me to wonder; if TMC members react this way to the Market's standard reaction to yet again another excellent earnings statement, how are they going to react when disruption hits the economy?

The fossil fuels industry is accustomed to having many multiple billions in profit every day and historically been willing to do whatever is necessary to ensure that their profit level continues. Personally, I believe that Big Oil is still in the "throw some money at it so it goes away" phase when it comes to renewable energy. However, I also believe that the Hornsdale project along with what is beginning to happen in the ICE vehicle segment does have their attention.

The TMC Hive has an expansive wealth of knowledge when it comes to the financial sector. I'm sure there are those here that are extremely well versed in how Big Oil has become a part, either directly or indirectly, of all segments of the worldwide economy. When the inevitable disruption begins, are we ready (personally or financially) for the absolute "bleep" storm of FUD, investigations, and governmental interference directed at Tesla and every other EV or renewable energy provider?

To be fair, compared to me @Krugerrand opinion of human nature is all rainbows and kittens. Even so, Big Oil isn't going to go quietly into the night and neither will the the individuals, companies, financial institutions, or nations that have grown dependent on the flow of Petro dollars.

 

[Bobfitz1]

The situation between Austin and Berlin are fundamentally different

Austin has already started production. There are no further approvals needed and Tesla stated pretty clearly that they are just waiting for the Austin-made Y, as in the car itself, to pass certification. Which is a process every new model car has to go through in the US. Tesla can, and is already producing Model Y's with deliveries starting next month.

Berlin is waiting on final approval to actually start production (though they have a limit of 2,000 Model Y's they can build for testing purposes)

Thanks for clarifying Austin status @StarFoxisDown! . Do you believe the several new deeper color choices enabled by Austin's SoTA paint shop will be added soon on MY ordering page?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

By the way, it is appropriate here for me to describe in a nutshell how I have dealt with putting my pocketbook where my mouth is, although long-term readers have known of this for many years. First, at 63ºN latitude and at an elevation just at the treeline, all such challenges are exacerbated.

Our hands were, amusingly (to outsiders, at least. 'Twarn't for us at the time), forced by our then-extant electricity microgrid's fatal decision to raise the cost of its large diesel generator's derived electricity to $4.15/kWh. You read that correctly.

What that meant was that it instantly became cost-effective for me to install a PV + battery system, augmented by a generator, plus a solar hydronic water heater. 36 panels; 110kWh storage; 48V set-up; 12kW of inversion. We use 2 high-output Blaze King wood stoves with catalytic converters for home heat; on-demand water heaters. It's a pretty good system for our location (Once we did this, the few others in our 'location' followed suit with something likewise and the morons running the community generator, having no better business sense in any of their other operations, went bankrupt). Solar insolation in winter months is understandably pitiful but as most of our consumption is in our refrigeration/freezer units, guess what we don't have to have on during those months? The current 30kW diesel generator I have has, after 7 1/2 yrs, just over 700 hours over run-time - ie, negligible. I would like to have gone with a geothermal heat pump but we live atop some permafrost lenses....

I do still have use for diesel, in addition to the genset. The heavy haulers - (F-350 and long bed Sprinter); the forklift, CAT305 excavator, CAT287B skidsteer - all these have, understandably, a power curve that still depends on hydrocarbons. But they will be supplanted by EV motors as soon as feasible alternatives are available.

If I can achieve this where we live, others in climes more appropriate for human presence can do the same.

At 63N how many hours of daylight do you have in December? I thought our days were short at 49N. We personally utilized a Hearthstone Mansfield soapstone stove at our last house and a Quadrafire before that. Blaze Kings were popular though-huge fire box, you could load them up and then shut the damper down more than most other stoves and have a long burn time. I bought non-cat stoves, but if I had to do it over I'd probably have gotten cat ones and deal with the replacement cost to have the opportunity to choke them down more. Wood-a truly renewable energy source! And of course by burning in a wood stove you eliminate the methane produced when a dead tree is allowed to drop and decay in the forest-let alone reduce the wildfire potential.

Too OT to respond. Google it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thanks for clarifying Austin status @StarFoxisDown! . Do you believe the several new deeper color choices enabled by Austin's SoTA paint shop will be added soon on MY ordering page?

I have zero clue about anything like that

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489743366602444800

So I'll relay some bits of info I've heard from the person I know at Tesla who told me about the all hands back in early 2021, so I know he's being up front. But take this as somewhat anecdotal to a region (North America). You can extrapolate how you want.

But he's saying Tesla has started to see a noticeable amount of trade in's of ID4 and Mach-E's and most interestingly, even trade in's that still have their tags on them and less than 1,000 miles on the odometer.

 

[Knightshade]

Cardboard fires at Fremont seem to be a recurring problem

First test task for Optimus- trash clean up

 

[ZeApelido]

I quoted this post because it points out, in fairly gentle terms, how the pivot from fossil fuels will look... initially.

Those of us here in this thread, at one time or another, have either commented about or hit the like/love button regarding the demise of fossil fuels. The collective "WE" mention aka gloss over the disruption that will surely happen, instead focusing on all of the real benefits of a world powered by renewable energy. Since the earnings call, there has been a vocal group that apparently had their knickers twisted because the stock price didn't go up. This has caused me to wonder; if TMC members react this way to the Market's standard reaction to yet again another excellent earnings statement, how are they going to react when disruption hits the economy?

The fossil fuels industry is accustomed to having many multiple billions in profit every day and historically been willing to do whatever is necessary to ensure that their profit level continues. Personally, I believe that Big Oil is still in the "throw some money at it so it goes away" phase when it comes to renewable energy. However, I also believe that the Hornsdale project along with what is beginning to happen in the ICE vehicle segment does have their attention.

The TMC Hive has an expansive wealth of knowledge when it comes to the financial sector. I'm sure there are those here that are extremely well versed in how Big Oil has become a part, either directly or indirectly, of all segments of the worldwide economy. When the inevitable disruption begins, are we ready (personally or financially) for the absolute "bleep" storm of FUD, investigations, and governmental interference directed at Tesla and every other EV or renewable energy provider?

To be fair, compared to me @Krugerrand opinion of human nature is all rainbows and kittens. Even so, Big Oil isn't going to go quietly into the night and neither will the the individuals, companies, financial institutions, or nations that have grown dependent on the flow of Petro dollars.

The Times New Roman font has totally flummoxed me and I have no response.