Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I expect that eventually the yoke wheel will be fly by wire.

This will allow progressive steering, where the software is designed to detect variables like speed and adapt the yoke to the conditions.

End result being that there will be no multiple turns of the yoke required, a quarter turn either way will be all the movement used. When driving at speed it will respond with smaller movements of the front wheels for finer control, and at slow speeds will allow sharper turns for parking and such.

And yes, the humans will easily adapt to this.

 

[StealthP3D]

But only for the case of airbag deployment when driving straight while somehow crossing your arms in front of the wheel.
When doing a turn you get into the same issue with a yoke, except with a wheel you'd have the option to reposition your hands without losing steering control during an emergency situation
So this pro argument isn't really worth its weight.

Tesla has the data recording the direction the front wheels were pointed every time airbags deployed. I think you will find in the vast majority of cases the wheels are pointed generally forward. On the other hand, they can look at data recorded by the cabin camera and see where drivers hands are with round wheels and with yokes when accidents happen. I think you will find the data show yokes will be significantly safer during airbag deployments.

The question is not whether a yoke can prevent all airbag injuries of this type, it's whether they increase or decrease the rate of these types of injury and facial disfigurements.

 

[Knightshade]

The motorcycle pre-dates the first car, but let's pretend the first motorcycle was invented in 1950, I imagine car drivers would say "oh, no, that's not safe

I mean....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462204414270197763

I expect that eventually the yoke wheel will be fly by wire.

This will allow progressive steering, where the software is designed to detect variables like speed and adapt the yoke to the conditions.

Man there's an Elon tweet for everything!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405591980487311361

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought I remembered Tesla stating that Berlin & Austin should be able to match Shanghai’s margins.

I’ve read the Q3&Q4 reports and transcripts and I cannot find a reference. I by chance, does anybody else remember this reference, and when it was made?

That was from a analysts meeting in Dec where Tesla stated they expect first year volumes out of Berlin/Austin to replicate Shanghai's and that they expect margins to match Shanghai as well.

Gary Black reported back the details of the analysts meeting as well as a couple other analysts. I'm not a huge fan of Tesla IR doing this. They held two these private analyst meetings in 2021, but I can also see why. They don't want to held to projections from the Wall St media so they decide to give out actual guidance on these private analysts meetings

 

[Singuy]

That was from a analysts meeting in Dec where Tesla stated they expect first year volumes out of Berlin/Austin to replicate Shanghai's and that they expect margins to match Shanghai as well.

Gary Black reported back the details of the analysts meeting as well as a couple other analysts. I'm not a huge fan of Tesla IR doing this. They held two these private analyst meetings in 2021, but I can also see why. They don't want to held to projections from the Wall St media so they decide to give out actual guidance on these private analysts meetings

There's a private Q&A call from analysts after every public Q&A webcast during earnings for clarification purposes. Andrea James spoke of this during a Dave Lee interview. So yes analysts get more information than us peons.

​

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There's a private Q&A call from analysts after every public Q&A webcast during earnings for clarification purposes. Andrea James spoke of this during a Dave Lee interview.

​

Yup there's that as well.

Overall, not a fan of the method but again, I understand why. I think it's more about Tesla not wanting things said on the record that then can be distorted and/or used against them in a negative way

 

[StealthP3D]

I mean....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462204414270197763

Leave it to @Knightshade to (try to) use one unrelated truth to prove someone wrong on a completely unrelated topic.

Elon is saying motorcycles are "unsafe" because they lack a safety cage around the rider, not because the method of control is deficient.

Why waste our time with utter nonsense?

 

[woodisgood]

Why waste our time with utter nonsense?

And here I thought you valued disruption.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Tesla has the data recording the direction the front wheels were pointed every time airbags deployed. I think you will find in the vast majority of cases the wheels are pointed generally forward. On the other hand, they can look at data recorded by the cabin camera and see where drivers hands are with round wheels and with yokes when accidents happen. I think you will find the data show yokes will be significantly safer during airbag deployments.

The question is not whether a yoke can prevent all airbag injuries of this type, it's whether they increase or decrease the rate of these types of injury and facial disfigurements.

Yes, Tesla might have all the data required to make this determination, although I'd expect most people to do something to try to avoid an oncoming collision (I.e, turn the wheel). But AFAIR they haven't argued for the yoke with any safety reasons, that was all us armchair engineers discussing between ourselves.

But as long as I haven't driven the yoke myself, I won't judge its practicability and whether I like it or not. And in any case expect to adopt to it fairly quick anyway.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ford suspending three major assembly lines, including the Mustang Mach-E, over chip shortage

The shutdown will affect the F-150, Mustang Mach-E, and Ford Bronco assembly lines, while other plants will slow down production.

driveteslacanada.ca

Those YoY comparisons in Q1 for the Mach-E are going to be brutal for Ford.

Also if F150 lines are being suspended, that a huge hit for Ford's profitability/margins. Combined with Ford having to do a write-down on their Rivian stake, profits in Q1 gonna take a huge hit.

 

[Knightshade]

Leave it to @Knightshade to (try to) use one unrelated truth to prove someone wrong on a completely unrelated topic.

Elon is saying motorcycles are "unsafe" because they lack a safety cage around the rider, not because the method of control is deficient.

Why waste our time with utter nonsense?

he's saying they're inherently unsafe, if you read his actual words. He literally says there is no way to make them safe.

You're then trying to read things he didn't actually say into why he feels that way.

Though we know it's NOT simply the lack of a structure around the driver as you suggest, because he's said the same about 3-wheel vehicles that DO have one.


Your mention of the motorcycle predating the car is interesting too, because the most widely accepted first motorcycle is the one from Daimer in 1885... that technically does beat the Benz car by a year- but, hilariously, it did not use the steering mechanism you're talking about... Instead it had 2 outrigger wheels to remain upright while turning.

(there's a couple steam powered bikes before this, but those were tech dead ends, and not motorcycles as defined by say the OED- that's getting pretty into the weeds though)



That aside- You were the one reasoning by analogy- telling us the yoke is "like" something else and using motorcycles for your analogy.

I was using first principles to cite that motorcycles are inherently unsafe-- regardless of steering used- and quoting Elon also reinforcing that fact.


Bonus points for the fact you're often very vocal and critical of others reasoning by analogy rather than first principles.



And as to the yoke- AFAIK not even Tesla has tried to argue it's "safer" in the ways you're suggesting- seems if they had data to support such a claim they'd make it.

The only justifications I've seen apart from round wheels are boring is that it allows a better view-- which with the S still having a traditional dash display unlike the 3/Y makes perfect sense.

I agree folks who drive it can get used to it pretty quickly.... Even Marques Brownlee, initially quite critical of it in his review, says he wouldn't switch back now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444642379647029251

 

[TN Mtn Man]

he's saying they're inherently unsafe, if you read his actual words. He literally says there is no way to make them safe.

You're then trying to read things he didn't actually say into why he feels that way.

Though we know it's NOT simply the lack of a structure around the driver as you suggest, because he's said the same about 3-wheel vehicles that DO have one.


Your mention of the motorcycle predating the car is interesting too, because the most widely accepted first motorcycle is the one from Daimer in 1885... that technically does beat the Benz car by a year- but, hilariously, it did not use the steering mechanism you're talking about... Instead it had 2 outrigger wheels to remain upright while turning.

(there's a couple steam powered bikes before this, but those were tech dead ends, and not motorcycles as defined by say the OED- that's getting pretty into the weeds though)



That aside- You were the one reasoning by analogy- telling us the yoke is "like" something else and using motorcycles for your analogy.

I was using first principles to cite that motorcycles are inherently unsafe-- regardless of steering used- and quoting Elon also reinforcing that fact.


Bonus points for the fact you're often very vocal and critical of others reasoning by analogy rather than first principles.



And as to the yoke- AFAIK not even Tesla has tried to argue it's "safer" in the ways you're suggesting- seems if they had data to support such a claim they'd make it.

The only justifications I've seen apart from round wheels are boring is that it allows a better view-- which with the S still having a traditional dash display unlike the 3/Y makes perfect sense.

I agree folks who drive it can get used to it pretty quickly.... Even Marques Brownlee, initially quite critical of it in his review, says he wouldn't switch back now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444642379647029251

Concerning the wheel vs yoke discussion-a lot of what goes on with automobiles (let alone regulations) is based on history and "how we've always done it", not necessarily what makes sense with the available technology today. None of the early (or not so early) cars had power steering. As such, a fairly large, full circle steering wheel both gave the leverage needed for control, as well as the constant gripping surface to maintain considerable force all the way around the wheel. They also had slower steering ratios, with more turns lock-to-lock to generate the torque multiplication necessary to maintain control. Some of course used tiller steering with it's obvious issues. Early aircraft (some anyway) also used full diameter wheels, for similar reasons. As we gained things like power steering on automobiles and "fly by wire" and boosted controls on aircraft, the needs changed. I don't think a full dia wheel has been used on aircraft in decades, most are yokes, or sticks on fighters. WIth autos, power steering has allowed steering ratios to get faster, and steering wheel diameter has decreased, since that mechanical advantage was no longer necessary. It would seem likely that yokes would be the next logical progression here as well. Especially with electric P/S that can offer variable ratios.

Concerning obsolete regulations (at least in the US) I can relate one I'm familiar with. I'm an avid motorcyclist and am actually a little more familiar there than auto ones. One oddity is that LED turn signals are not allowed to be sold on new bikes in this country-they have to be incandescent, with, IIRC, amber lenses. The rest of the world went LED a long time ago-reducing weight and current draw, as well as providing longer life, is more critical on a bike than a car. Yet our regs have never updated to reflect this. It's one of the most common safety and appearance upgrades for many owners. Another one I came across in a Munro video, autos (in the US anyway) are required to have a full mechanical connection between the steering wheel and steering mechanism, even if "boosted". Seems a little archaic given that most airliners have done away with mechanical connections and gone "fly by wire" decades ago. Another one (tradition not regulation here) is transmission controls. Many/most manufactures when with electronically controlled/shifted transmissions years ago-but kept "sticks" to emulate the old mechanical systems-cluttering up the cabin for no real reason. Only recently has the shift from "sticks" to knobs, buttons or touch screen controls become widely used.

As a motorcyclist, I'm disappointed in Elon's decision not to support them with Tesla's technology. But fine, his business, his choice. I'll continue to ride anyway, and when E-motorcycle technology ramps up will probably go that route. Would be nice not to have to change oil, adjust valves, change coolant, etc. But EMC range is far more limited than BEV (I guess this should be BEA(uto) since a MC is a vehicle). Preferred riding areas are less likely to have level 3 chargers around. And of course, weight is a much bigger issue, so large, heavy battery packs are out. I suspect it's just a matter of time before the technology evolves.

 

[StealthP3D]

As a motorcyclist, I'm disappointed in Elon's decision not to support them with Tesla's technology. But fine, his business, his choice. I'll continue to ride anyway, and when E-motorcycle technology ramps up will probably go that route. Would be nice not to have to change oil, adjust valves, change coolant, etc. But EMC range is far more limited than BEV (I guess this should be BEA(uto) since a MC is a vehicle). Preferred riding areas are less likely to have level 3 chargers around. And of course, weight is a much bigger issue, so large, heavy battery packs are out. I suspect it's just a matter of time before the technology evolves.

I am an avid life-long motorcyclist, mostly for sport-touring. I always figured it was a better way to see the various National Parks of North America (including many spectacular areas without park designation) compared to lugging around 20-40 tons of crap everywhere I visit. Well, life-long motorcyclist until we got our first Tesla Model 3. Since then I have put less than 500 miles on all my motorcycles combined instead of the previous 5000-6000 miles each year. The no gasoline and instant torque of the RWD Model 3 ruined motorcycles for me. The AWD Performance Model 3 drove the final nail into the coffin. Truth be told, as a motorcyclist, I was living on borrowed time (and I knew it). I had escaped death/serious injury more times than I have fingers and toes.

Elon's reason for not manufacturing motorcycles goes beyond his near-death experience. Tesla does not produce the cheapest EV's on the market because they know other companies can address the under $10K world market for tiny city cars just as easily as they can produce the electric motorcycles. Tesla is focusing on the most important markets for showing the world EV's are better than gasoline cars and trucks (including semi's). Glorified golf carts cannot do that as effectively. Tesla is maintaining laser-like focus on their mission.

Motorcycles pre-date cars by nearly two decades. Here is the 1869 S.H. Roper steam powered motorcycle:

In the early days of motor-powered personal transport, a motorcycle was much more affordable for people without unlimited means, which is why early motorcycles outnumbered early cars at the beginning of the era of powered self-transport.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

As a motorcyclist, I'm disappointed in Elon's decision not to support them with Tesla's technology. But fine, his business, his choice. I'll continue to ride anyway, and when E-motorcycle technology ramps up will probably go that route. Would be nice not to have to change oil, adjust valves, change coolant, etc. But EMC range is far more limited than BEV (I guess this should be BEA(uto) since a MC is a vehicle). Preferred riding areas are less likely to have level 3 chargers around. And of course, weight is a much bigger issue, so large, heavy battery packs are out. I suspect it's just a matter of time before the technology evolves.

Elon's not doing EV motorcycles, but here's a Canadian company that is:

Damon HyperSport | Electric Sport Motorcycles

Meet the Damon HyperSport -our high performance, all-electric sport motorcycle fully stacked with our award-winning technology. Reserve yours today.

damon.com

FWIW: The Plaid is still faster to 60.

 

[EVCollies]

My wife drives MS LR, with yoke. She loves it. This refreshed S is considerably improved in many regards, compared to my MS 60 (2013) and my MS 75D (2018). The one-pedal driving is terrific. I'll be ordering one to replace the 75D. I've been hoping for new colors. If they don't happen soon, I'll buy a white one and wrap it. GLTA

I would keep your MS 60 (2013) forever as a collector's item.

 

[oldTAVguy]

A simple request. Many of us do not send money to the likes of WSJ, NYT, Wash Po S and others. I hope that if you subscribe to these FUD factories, it's because of other needs or a willingness to take one for the TMC team. Please provide a least a bare summary (or more, without violating copyright). This will be greatly appreciated and earn you more points. And keep funds from feeding the FUD beast.

Thank you.

 

[ggr]

I think that anyone who hasn't driven for a day with the yoke doesn't deserve to have an opinion. Just like the people who wanted creep mode, or braking only on the brake pedal. And we have two newly installed roundabouts of optimally bad size on the road out of our home, yoke is just fine.

Mod: good idea. --ggr

 

[Thekiwi]

There's a private Q&A call from analysts after every public Q&A webcast during earnings for clarification purposes. Andrea James spoke of this during a Dave Lee interview. So yes analysts get more information than us peons.

​

I know its common practice - but this should really be illegal IMO. Every investor should have the same access to any comments made by management/investor relations in response to analyst questions. Its disgusting that this happens - for anyone else if they got info like this and buy/sold stock afterward it would probably be considered a crime.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

To this point, almost all major corporations do that. They call it 'Competitive Analysis", or "product comparisons" or any of a legion of other terms. The majority of consulting firms do such work, often for direct competitors, and equally often with the knowledge of the competitors that they were commissioning that work.
An anecdote is typical of that industry; Years ago I was doing competitive analysis for a major global financial institution. One day I was traveling from New York to Tokyo. My seat mate, by coincidence, was the CEO of my client's primary competitor. He was looking at a copy of their newly developed strategic plan. He noticed me and asked me what work I was doing and I told him I was working in plans for one of his competitors. During our 15 hour flight he gave em a copy of his plans to critique, I replied with a couple high level comments. He then asked if we'd do the same job for them. I replied I'd need permission from his competitor. Both accepted the deal.

Sandy Munro has a huge source source of income from selling teardown data to competitors.

Most corporate competitive analysis comes from public sources coupled with freely disclosed information. Bluntly, most product development people are quite happy to operate. Politicians, not so much. There are indeed huge gray areas in this field.

FWIW, in my anecdote the two clients have become globally #1 and #2 in that subject. Which is which varies from year to year.

I worked for GM back in the 80s-90s in engineering. While going to college I did a thesis concerning joining and fastening techniques for HVAC systems (our plant built GMs). They had a vehicle teardown area our near the Warren Tech Center where they had most manufacturer's vehicles torn down, I got to spend some time there for my project.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Elon's not doing EV motorcycles, but here's a Canadian company that is:

Damon HyperSport | Electric Sport Motorcycles

Meet the Damon HyperSport -our high performance, all-electric sport motorcycle fully stacked with our award-winning technology. Reserve yours today.

damon.com

FWIW: The Plaid is still faster to 60.

I've read of them-but I haven't found any info of them actually delivering product. I'd like to see an actual review from independent riders. I had been following Zero motorcycles some time ago. HD also has their Livewire, but it's insanely overpriced and range is terrible. It was spun off as a different marketing line.

It's amazing that a Plaid is faster 0-60 than any production bike-I think faster in the 1/4 mile even. Even a M3 or MY Performance will take most bikes 0-60-unreal!