That's still the case in much of the world-motorcycles, especially very small displacement ones, are huge in SE Asia. Its interesting how much that industry is being "globalized" as well-my most recent KTM was built in India. It (390 Adventure) seems to sell well there-many/most youtube videos on in are from India (granted sales started a year earlier there as well).
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Motorcyclists were what kept me awake 90% of my calls as a resident on duty in trauma centres. The classic story was: “we have a C5 Paraplegic man who got cut on the highway and fell and hit a post and now has insensate lower limbs, no motor function, can we transfer him to your center?” Then I was waiting 2 hours for him to arrive, classically they would arrive around 11PM, get him in the MRI and announce him bad news about his future during the middle of the night.
Glad you stopped what is probably the most dangerous transportation mode ever invented in recent human history. When my kids announce me they want to purchase a motorcycle. I will tell them “No problem as long as you learn to live in a wheelchair and find someone to digitate your bowel movements out and change your diapers for one month straight.” If they are fine living like this for 1 month, I will have no problem letting them out late on a motorcycle on slippery raining roads with unpredictable drivers around. As long as they are aware of the risk/reward ratio.
Sorry that subject pulled me in the OT zone. Kept me busy so many nights. Young patients reacted with more denial and anger from a quadriplegic or paraplegic Dx than cancer Dx.
A Tesla FSD motorcycle would be really bad news for TSLA investors because of all the negative press of the unavoidable deaths accidents would cause. There is no such thing as a motorcycle that have 5 stars in all safety ratings.
Last edited:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I haven't been able to stop thinking about this "Tesla needs a fab" thing, and I've realized that there is an obvious solution here.
There are, big picture, two possible reasons I can think of for Tesla to get into the chip manufacturing business. The first and obvious one is guaranteed chip availability. If its their fab, then they get the output. Which also means that if it isn't yielding, then they get the output (not enough). But whatever - guaranteed access to the chips they need.
The second reason is that there is some nuance in the chip design that they want, that isn't available in the design language or manufacturing capability of their chip manufacturing partner.
For the first one, the obvious solution is to buy the capacity rather than build their own. Go to TSMC or Samsung and pay for them to build a new fab in their network in exchange for priority access to the output of that specific factory, or more likely access to an equivalent amount from somewhere in the network. Sort of how Tesla has been solving raw material problems in the future. They could buy / build their own lithium, nickel, graphite, ... miner and processor. Or they can sign guaranteed purchase contracts with existing companies, where those miner/processors can use that guaranteed future purchases to fund their own expansion.
So do that for their chip designs.
Or even easier in the case of chips - go to the manufacturing partner(s) and offer $25k / wafer that normally sells for $16k. Think that'll buy some priority in the queue?
Whatever the details of these approaches they will be cheaper than building their own R&D, pathfinding, development, and production fabs / processes. Also likely to provide higher quality levels for a decade or more.
For the second possibility, if there is enough volume then one approach is for Tesla to partner on the R&D with the manufacturer, build them a fab, and extend the design tools to enable that incremental functionality that requires tight coupling between the manufacturing process and the design process. This is a capability that Intel as an IDM has available to it, as well as Samsung to the degree that they make use of different design and manufacturing for their internal product demand vs. external foundry business.
I have no idea how big of a difference this tight connection between chip manufacturing and chip design in the capability of finished product, so I have no idea how likely this is to be an issue or how big of a deal it would be. It will need to be awfully big to make the incremental cost worth incurring.
Analyst doesn't have skin in the game. They are suppose to use the info to make recommendations via their pt reports.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Old Renault Zoes had either Prismatic or Pouch cells (not sure which). I believe it's been much safer than many alternatives.
Looks like newer long range Zoes are using LG cells (presumably pouch).
In comparison, Tesla chose LFP and Cylindrical cells for sound engineering reasons.
I think pouch cell use will be an ever increasing, snowballing, ticking timebomb scandal. Whereas Tesla will be viewed more favourably, better residuals, etc. Mostly pro-Tesla, but some anti-EV FUD might occur.
I suspect pouch cell risks will affect Polestar, VW ID, Taycan and many more. Huge recall and reputational costs/risks.
www.autoevolution.com
Looks like newer long range Zoes are using LG cells (presumably pouch).
In comparison, Tesla chose LFP and Cylindrical cells for sound engineering reasons.
I think pouch cell use will be an ever increasing, snowballing, ticking timebomb scandal. Whereas Tesla will be viewed more favourably, better residuals, etc. Mostly pro-Tesla, but some anti-EV FUD might occur.
I suspect pouch cell risks will affect Polestar, VW ID, Taycan and many more. Huge recall and reputational costs/risks.
Renault ZOE Faces Battery Recall for Fire Risk
Renault reported the issue to European authorities on February 3, 2022, affecting ZOE units produced with the BT4 XLR battery pack
www.autoevolution.com
A good friend's wife insisted that I sell the 60 to her. When I told them I was getting the 75, she reminded me. That was almost 4 years ago. She still loves it. My friend (her husband) is now a 6-month Model Y owner. They are all-in with TSLA and Tesla.
For some strange, indiscernible reason, the only thing my sons listened to me about after age 16, was when I said NO MOTORCYCLES. They knew I had ridden extensively, and their Brother in law is a die hard encouraging enthusiast.
Don't know why they didn't ignore me.
But I'll take it.
I’m too afraid to ask if digitating one’s bowels is what it sounds like.
I was a critical care nurse, once apon a time, and yes, yes it's exactly what it sounds like.
MODERATOR:
NO MORE -
1. Motorcycles qua motorcycles posts
2. "I wish Tesla would produce / am happy Tesla won't produce motorcycles" posts
3. And a whole bunch of other OT stuff I cannot now remember.
Hint: before you hit "Send" ask yourself "Do I feel lucky today?"
NO MORE -
1. Motorcycles qua motorcycles posts
2. "I wish Tesla would produce / am happy Tesla won't produce motorcycles" posts
3. And a whole bunch of other OT stuff I cannot now remember.
Hint: before you hit "Send" ask yourself "Do I feel lucky today?"
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There are two types of people in this world, those who have done the bowel program of a paraplegic and those who haven't. It's...... unpleasant.
It would be great if Tesla "analysts" on CNBC did even this much research...
Sure let me borrow yours for a day. If I haven't crashed it by the end of the day, the yoke is probably all right!
I can’t imagine that Berlin will match either Austin or Shanghai margins.. maybe Shanghai will be closer, but from what I know of OEM Automotive in Germany, I’d be very surprised if Berlin was equal to Austin, for MANY reasons.. they might be doing some slight of hand accounting in that they might be consider non 4680 battery tech in Austin vs. 4680 battery tech in Berlin and having that mask higher COGS in Berlin or operating overhead in Berlin, but that would out pretty quickly. TWT
Um. I'm a EE. A few times in my career, I've designed and had built silicon devices, typically as a member of a team. So, regarding all this FAB stuff, I wish to clear the air a bit.
The FAB guys own large buildings, bunny suits, and weirder and more complicated machines that cost more $$$$ than one can shake a stick at, and play with nifto chemicals like Hydrogen Flouride, which will etch its way through glass, silicon, and given half a chance your arm, with predictable results regarding the last.
These people are Not the chip design people. Not normally. The chip designers run around in VHDL, Verilog, and work with the foundry types. Compiled VHDL and Verilog result in netlists involving gates, D-flip flops, dedicated phase locked loops, and what-all, that are constructed from individual transistors. The foundry types take the netlists, convert them to artwork, which is then used to make the actual die on wafers in the foundry.
The foundry/FAB people spend a lot of time characterizing their transistors, logic gates (made out of transistors, but may be custom, depending upon what one is doing), and dumping the data into libraries, which get shipped off to the chip designers.
If you want a garden variety microprocessor with a million gates or so and you'll only need a million or so of these microprocessors, it's not worth your time to build your own FAB. Find a FAB with some spare capacity, sign contracts, get libraries, do a bit of training, do your design, simulate like you stole the simulator, and run back and forth between the FAB guys and the designers, iterating on the layout/timing/I/O until it's done, stick a fork in it, complete the contract that build the first hundred parts. Test the heck out of those, then Let Loose the Gods of the Wafer Build.
If all this sounds Really Expensive: You're right. But a heck of a lot less expensive and time-consuming than building one's own FAB. The only people who do stuff like that are Intel, who're going to build, literally, 100's of millions of cutting-edge microprocessors, or TMC, who're going to have many, many customers for their foundry, and keep things up and going that way.
But that's not what Tesla did this last year. They didn't design any new chips. They redesigned circuit boards to use parts that were in good supply. Yes, software for the devices. Yes, re-layout of a multi-layer circuit board, but likely not the entire circuit board. There are job shops what will give you, upon delivery of the ODB files, brand spanking new ones within two weeks, and we're talking, like, 8 or ten layer circuit boards. That's good for models: But building production boards, well, the limiting factors aren't typically how fast the circuit board can be built on a new design, it's all the bed-of-nails testing, functional test, and all that that take time. But, unlike how long it takes a women to have a baby (9 months, in case you didn't know), things in this line of work can go faster if, and only if, one throws experienced designers at the problem. Which is, apparently, what Tesla did. Ha. Vertical integration for the Win!
Going for a FAB: That's nuts. Unless Tesla is prepping for hundreds of millions of parts to keep the production line going. Maybe not quite that many, but in that range.
The FAB guys own large buildings, bunny suits, and weirder and more complicated machines that cost more $$$$ than one can shake a stick at, and play with nifto chemicals like Hydrogen Flouride, which will etch its way through glass, silicon, and given half a chance your arm, with predictable results regarding the last.
These people are Not the chip design people. Not normally. The chip designers run around in VHDL, Verilog, and work with the foundry types. Compiled VHDL and Verilog result in netlists involving gates, D-flip flops, dedicated phase locked loops, and what-all, that are constructed from individual transistors. The foundry types take the netlists, convert them to artwork, which is then used to make the actual die on wafers in the foundry.
The foundry/FAB people spend a lot of time characterizing their transistors, logic gates (made out of transistors, but may be custom, depending upon what one is doing), and dumping the data into libraries, which get shipped off to the chip designers.
If you want a garden variety microprocessor with a million gates or so and you'll only need a million or so of these microprocessors, it's not worth your time to build your own FAB. Find a FAB with some spare capacity, sign contracts, get libraries, do a bit of training, do your design, simulate like you stole the simulator, and run back and forth between the FAB guys and the designers, iterating on the layout/timing/I/O until it's done, stick a fork in it, complete the contract that build the first hundred parts. Test the heck out of those, then Let Loose the Gods of the Wafer Build.
If all this sounds Really Expensive: You're right. But a heck of a lot less expensive and time-consuming than building one's own FAB. The only people who do stuff like that are Intel, who're going to build, literally, 100's of millions of cutting-edge microprocessors, or TMC, who're going to have many, many customers for their foundry, and keep things up and going that way.
But that's not what Tesla did this last year. They didn't design any new chips. They redesigned circuit boards to use parts that were in good supply. Yes, software for the devices. Yes, re-layout of a multi-layer circuit board, but likely not the entire circuit board. There are job shops what will give you, upon delivery of the ODB files, brand spanking new ones within two weeks, and we're talking, like, 8 or ten layer circuit boards. That's good for models: But building production boards, well, the limiting factors aren't typically how fast the circuit board can be built on a new design, it's all the bed-of-nails testing, functional test, and all that that take time. But, unlike how long it takes a women to have a baby (9 months, in case you didn't know), things in this line of work can go faster if, and only if, one throws experienced designers at the problem. Which is, apparently, what Tesla did. Ha. Vertical integration for the Win!
Going for a FAB: That's nuts. Unless Tesla is prepping for hundreds of millions of parts to keep the production line going. Maybe not quite that many, but in that range.
Drumheller
Active Member
Can we extend this idea to people who haven't programmed AI and machine learning not posting at length speculation regarding FSD?
That'd be great! So who else had made custom chips? or worked with AI at a $1T+ company?
More free advertising. Hertz e-mailed this out today.
Praise Jesus, someone with the club of reality came and authoritatively has laid it all out so that even I can't misunderstand it.
I'm sure that will be the last time we need to discuss this loopy idea ever again
Have others been having these ads sometimes show up, apparently replacing images or other content posted? I realize TMC needs to pay the bills, but it's irritating that it blocks content.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
