A Time article explains why no oil drilling will occur. Simple actually, profits and uncertainty. Too bad Tesla can't supply all the demand as they are the only company that makes quality, safe and dependable EVs.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
A Bloomberg video on projections of oil decline due to EV adoption. TLDW: EV adoption may cause loss of oil demand by 2 million bpd as early as 2023.
They use projections by other car automakers (video was made in 2016) in terms of EV sales, but we know no one else is close meeting their EV sales other than Tesla.
My nephew-in-law (CFO of his company) loves his Tesla, but he believes it’s overvalued. He wouldn’t dare shorting the stock, but he wouldn’t buy it either.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's entirely possible to love a product but not love the business that makes it.
Now, personally I love both Teslas product and love owning part of the company-- but one by no means requires the other....as a few examples:
I loved my original 3DFX card that virtually invented modern 3D gaming...but the company was incompetent at running an actual business.
I loved my Tivo, but I'm sure glad I didn't dump my retirement money into their stock either.
My LG OLED TVs are phenomenal, but I'm sure glad I didn't put $ into shares of LG display either (despite them having a lot better future ahead than the other 2 I just mentioned).
Tesla wins Kelley Blue Book’s “Best Overall Luxury Brand” award for 3rd year in a row
Tesla was recently listed by vehicle valuation and automotive research company Kelley Blue Book (KBB) as the “Best Overall Luxury Brand” in its 2022 Brand Image Awards. The awards are designed to recognize automakers whose vehicle lineups create enthusiasm among car shoppers. As noted by KBB...
www.teslarati.com
You should ask him on what metrics he thinks Tesla is overvalued. Not a gotcha moment, I just genuinely find it fascinating as to the excuse people use to say Tesla is overvalued.
Most of the time, people that I know who think Tesla is overvalued have no clue about Tesla's actual finances.
Most of the time, people that I know who think Tesla is overvalued have no clue about Tesla
FTFY...
Those who does DCA on Tesla and ends up with a lower price target usually requires growth to hit a brick wall sometime between 2022 and 2030. These people are not using 50% growth yoy till 2030 in their calculation. Any projection in which growth stalls in any random year in the near future will plummet Teslas multiple.
Motor Mouth
Member
At least this would have some degree of calculation involved. The otherwise-very-smart people I've talked to who think TSLA is overvalued are nearly universally anchored to 1 metric. "GM sells xxx bazillon cars, how can TSLA be worth more than GM when it only sells XXX cars?" In other words, middle school math as the basis for their opinion. Like I say, "otherwise"-smart people.
Yeah but those people doesn't have a price target. We are specifically talking about analysts with bearish price targets. Even Gordon does a DCA to come up with his nonsense.
And they ignore that GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda....All peak car sales were like 5 years ago. Declines ever since. So your investing in a companies sales are increasing YoY or going down YoY. So basic. Yet they dont see it.
That someone who bought naked shorted shares does not actually have the shares in his portfolio. He only owns a promise to receive those shares when they are delivered. It's usually after the naked shorter has exhausted all of the ways he can avoid coming up with real shares. We've had plenty of discussions about this in the past. Particularly, surrounding the delivery of naked-shorted shares to the rightful owners during the stock dividend of 4 shares, a while back.
When I buy shares, I get them from the "street" or the broker, not a specific individual. The broker would have to fail to deliver to me, and that would kill the broker.
Silently Tesla Energy is getting more available areas to install PowerWalls and Mini-grids. Didn't realize Italy is going guns on for newables and will leave Russian gas behind. Don't tell anyone Tesla is not just a car company.
www.euronews.com
Italy builds first offshore wind farm to provide for 60,000 people
Italy ranks third in Europe for both renewable power consumption and electrical and thermal power production from renewable resources.
www.euronews.com
It's Friday, which implies a weekly options expiration day. TSLA put traders are particularly active today and are heavily into the $800 strike price. It would benefit the large put writers/sellers (hedge funds & market makers) to nudge the share price above $800 before the close. That would shut out the put owners at that level.
ZachF
Active Member
By my rough calcs, global EV production should equal out entirely the natural rate of increase in global oil demand by 2024.
What this means is peak oil, but peak demand rather than supply.
Grimes on Music, Mars, and Her Secret New Baby With Elon Musk
The visionary pop star holds nothing back, talking with Vanity Fair about everything under the sun, including her thrilling upcoming album, ‘Book 1.’
” We live in this society right now where people expect everyone to behave right, and talk right,” she begins. “You have these manifestations of genius, but then you want them to behave normally—but the reason they’re like that is because they’re so disconnected from correct behavior.” Humans are beautiful and toxic in equal supply, she says. “Like, we **** up. We’re all gonna do bad things in our life. We’re all gonna do stupid things.”
Hmm …. I think I finally understand why EM behaves the way he does!
That's not true anymore............a year ago when Tesla had a Forward P/E of 300+, sure, any hiccup in growth would plummet Tesla's multiple.
But Tesla is likely trading at a Forward P/E of 50 right now (factoring my expectations of Q1 earnings). Meaning the market's expectations for future earnings are 25%.....starting now. Not next year. Not 2024 or 2025. But as in this year Tesla's earnings growth will slow to only 25%. It's so far out of the realm of reality that it's mind boggling.
So I actually don't argue potential when I talk to people that I know that think Tesla is overvalued. That gives them an out in terms of saying "Well I don't believe in that future growth". I use cold hard numbers.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Tesla now is entering the big league like Michael Jordan at the beginning of his rookie NBA season. Everyone recognized he was very talented after winning a college basketball national championship and making the game winning shot at the buzzer.Most people still view EV's as something being forced by concerns about climate change, an expensive and less than optimum compromise. They don't understand EV's make sense on every level, they think it's a sacrifice to switch to EV's for the sake of the environment.
Because of this misunderstanding, they see the war in Ukraine and all the economic sanctions as taking precedence, something that will temporarily remove the urgency to transition. That, combined with the uncertainty people feel about the future, is all it takes to remove the shine of a company with a valuation that many see as only making sense in an optimistic, utopian future, a future many see as further away than ever. They can't see how Tesla makes sense in a less prosperous future.
The fact remains, market valuations are a product of all investors, and many of them are incredibly dumb and unable to see the bigger picture. That's OK, it's normal and expected. Just know that time has a way of revealing all.
Still, many thought the hype had far outstripped the talent. Two teams had passed up on him in the draft, so he was picked third. Others thought a skinny, 6'6" tall shooting guard would struggle to shine against stronger, taller NBA competitors--literally "The Big Boys are coming." The Chicago Bulls had been perennial losers too, so he wouldn't have much help from the team.
It only took a few games for the reality to begin to become apparent, even for the most daft of observers. Dazzling execution on the court and amazing stats for a rookie carrying the team on his back became impossible to ignore or rationalize away.
When Tesla posts 2022 net income of $20+ billion and 80-100% production growth whilst the rest of the industry is going down in flames, the dominance will be undeniable.
The MJ analogy fails in one major aspect. He was playing an athletic game, limited by human physiology; Tesla is playing a technology game, limited only by the laws of physics and creativity. The margin of victory can be orders of magnitude higher in engineering competitions.
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Took a few games to see his talent, but years to believe that a 6'6' shooting guard could lead a team to a championship let alone 6.
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