Krugerrand
Meow
Ha! Wait until they get a load of margins when every vehicle sold in Q2 has $12k of FSD attached to it.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Could be multiple alternative, more benign reasons they're still putting out absurdly pessimistic projections. Here's a few:
Status quo bias, Stagnation fallacy, Anchoring Effect --> Assuming that historical auto industry phenomena necessarily apply to Tesla and not validating the assumption even in the face of directly contradictory empirical evidence. Or subconsciously using auto industry standard performance as a drag on Tesla estimates even when genuinely trying to perform objective first principles analysis. "It's never happened before like that, so it never will."
Lack of self-confidence and emotional insecurity --> Fear of losing job and not being rich and high-status, fear of making an outrageously bold prediction and being mistaken, fear of appearing ignorant or stupid. Safer to cower in the herd than risk going out alone for fresher air and greener pastures.
Confirmation bias / Belief Perseverance --> Intellectual path dependence, holding on to prior belief that Tesla is overrated (a belief developed during an era when Tesla's very survival was much less certain) because of only paying attention to or giving weight to information in support of that hypothesis.
Reverse halo effect, In-group vs Out-group bias, Affinity bias --> Tesla and especially Elon are clearly quite different from these financial analysts in terms of personality, character, and social norms. To them, Tesla succeeding massively would feel like an indictment of their values, principles and way of life, especially since Elon has explicitly expressed his disdain for them in public on numerous occasions. It's hard to like someone who says you ask boring, boneheaded questions and says fewer smart people should be following your career path. And in many ways, this feeling would (will) be based in reality. The Elon way is the future of capitalism and their way is obsolete and harmful. "I don't like them, so I don't want them to be successful, so I want to expect they will lose, so I will rationalize why I think so."
Ignorance of key information --> Lack of correct understanding or knowledge of engineering, supply chain, marketing, consumer psychology, etc leading to inaccurate understanding of Tesla's monstrous competitive advantages. Lots of people in the finance industry went to school mainly for the connections and credentials and it seems a majority went straight into finance without gaining any experience in business operations first. I know this because I went to Vanderbilt which is a top Wall Street recruitment school and I met many of those students. Unfortunately, most of them were the type to look up the homework answers online and use test banks to study for exams instead of actually investing in doing the work the hard way. Or they chose easier majors than engineering. How could the analysts evaluate Tesla's trajectory without understanding what Tesla is doing and why it's been working this far?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, TSLA departed from the macros significantly during the day. Early exaggerated plunge then capped at 800 throughout the day, all the while the QQQ continued a steady march towards a Close near its lows:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I think you mean analysts who use DCF (discounted cash flow).
Retail investors who use DCA (dollar cost averaging) will do extremely well.
Cheers!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If I sell puts/calls based on MaxPain, I’d lose a lot of money.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You have no audit priviledges at your retail broker. How would you even know if they are lying to you about the shares they hold in your name as the beneficiary ownner?
No, retail brokers own large pools of shares, and typically swap them amongst their retail customers at the end of the day. For example, my broker holds over 4 M shares of TSLA, almost all of which are on their books internally to benefical owners.
This problem DID come to a head on Sep 2, 2020 after TSLA split 5:1 and many retail brokers did not receive enough shares of TSLA to go around for all the commitments they had. That's because they cheated, and got caught naked short when the 'true up' was done after the split.
It's all here in the record in this thread, if you read it. Start on Aug 13, 2020 for the full story. Some members here (about a dozen) commented how their brokers 'could not' give them their shares. They got them; 3 days late, after the SP plunged some 20%. Those retail "beneficial holders" got cheated. But it's only fraud if you have evidence to give the court, right?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Model S seen transiting the logistics area at Giga Shanghai today: (Mar 11, 2022)
Model S unloading at Giga shanghai Parking Area - Mar.11.2022 | Wu Wa (5:05)
There's some more views of loading onto single car carriers starting at (6:38)
These cars are likely special delivery to show rooms, which implies that sales of refreshed Model S/X may begin soon in China.
Cheers!
Model S unloading at Giga shanghai Parking Area - Mar.11.2022 | Wu Wa (5:05)
There's some more views of loading onto single car carriers starting at (6:38)
These cars are likely special delivery to show rooms, which implies that sales of refreshed Model S/X may begin soon in China.
Cheers!
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
MountainRatMat
Member
Just ordered my new Cybertruck plates:
What follows is options talk, skip if you want, but I believe it is bullish for the future stock price.
While I haven’t made an exhaustive study, it sure seems to me that recent SP closes have been just slightly below a large number of puts (put wall). An analogous situation often occurs where the SP is capped below call walls, to keep retail call buyers from profiting. This week’s close 795, last week 838, prior weeks 809, 856, 860, 923, 846. Many of these weeks had significant put walls just slightly above the closing SP. Could it be possible that somebody is collecting shares via buying far out of the money puts? Buy OTM puts for $1.50-$2.00 early Monday and then naked short all week (selling high and collecting cash). No need to cover because you get shares “put” to you. This week’s open was $856 and the morning high $866, which is a nice selling point when you know that you can naked short it all week to $795 and true up on Saturday at $800. Thoughts? We know the quarterly earnings will be stellar, so maybe a stealthy way to collect shares.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Only Options Market Makers have the exemption which allows them to sell naked short shares (Rule 201 "Madoff Exemption" to SEC Regulation SHO). For all other market participants, naked short selling is illegal.
If your theory is true, then this must be conducted by organizations with these market priviledges. That narrows down the list of suspects to about 28 TSLA Options Market Makers.
My guess is that he looks at the stock price. Compare the price of a share of GM or Ford with the stock price of Tesla. The latter is clearly overvalued. For the amount of money of 1 Tesla share you can get shares of the former!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Got 'em! Great story someday...
The EU plan to drastically ramp renewables to replace Russian gas
The European Commission yesterday announced its intent to remove demand for two-thirds of its Russian gas supply in less than nine months and hugely accelerating the rate of solar deployment is a central part of its radically raised clean energy ambition.
www.pv-magazine.com
The EU's plan to hit fast-forward on its Fit for 55 emissions reduction plan, in a bid to reduce the bloc's reliance on Russian gas, will include a proposal to bring forward enough rooftop solar panels to generate up to 15TWh of clean electricity this year.
The European Commission yesterday stated its intent to draw up a “RepowerEU” package of policies “by the summer” to try and reduce by two-thirds the volume of Russian gas it imported last year, with the aim of securing that result by the end of December.
The emergency measure was drafted in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the connected threat to supplies of Russian gas, oil and coal to the EU.
The EU plan to drastically ramp renewables to replace Russian gas
The European Commission yesterday announced its intent to remove demand for two-thirds of its Russian gas supply in less than nine months and hugely accelerating the rate of solar deployment is a central part of its radically raised clean energy ambition.
The EU's plan to hit fast-forward on its Fit for 55 emissions reduction plan, in a bid to reduce the bloc's reliance on Russian gas, will include a proposal to bring forward enough rooftop solar panels to generate up to 15TWh of clean electricity this year.
The European Commission yesterday stated its intent to draw up a “RepowerEU” package of policies “by the summer” to try and reduce by two-thirds the volume of Russian gas it imported last year, with the aim of securing that result by the end of December.
The emergency measure was drafted in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the connected threat to supplies of Russian gas, oil and coal to the EU.
They're gonna need a whole bunch of energy storage for that.......Man I really hope the Megapack factory, which is scheduled to be completed next month, is able crank out some serious growth in the 2nd half of this year.
Wartime footing. All kinds of battery production may get fast-tracked.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I've seen this brought up over and over. But it means nothing unless somebody tried to do a transaction and it wasn't permitted. I have never seen anybody claim here that they tried to sell shares they were supposed to have, but they couldn't. Other than that, all that is being complained about is that their account didn't have its assets listed properly. So what? It means nothing.
If you want to claim some kind of cheating, then document a case where somebody tried to sell their TSLA shares and was told they couldn't.
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