Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

I am ready for Tesla Master plan Part Trois

Above from Jan 19 2022

While he is at it, add in some real excitement with new executive pay package, bring on the tranches!

 

[Baumisch]

Above from Jan 19 2022

While he is at it, add in some real excitement with new executive pay package, bring on the tranches!

This to me would be the real Musk commitment - if his next package includes FSD or Optimus then I'm a believer.
On the other hand - we're still not done with "Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it" from Part deux.

 

[jeewee3000]

On the other hand - we're still not done with "Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it" from Part deux.

To be fair, the first Tesla Masterplan wasn't entirely finished when Part Deux was released, but it was well underway.

Refresher:

1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Step 3 was the Model 3 back then (when part Deux released). The current ramp of 3 is still ongoing, as is the ramp of step 4. All in all, the plan is now complete, but its lasting impact is only in its infancy.

Part Deux stated (I numbered them for ease, the real plan contains no numbers):

5. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
6. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
7. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
8. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Step 5 is complete but ramping is needed for impact.

Step 6 contains the Model Y in my opinion, and Cybertruck, Semi, compact car and probably products to be announced when the time comes. It is unclear if by "vehicle" Elon means road transport or if he implied boats/aircraft. Personally I think he didn't mean to include these in this plan.
This step is far from complete but well underway since battery tech is everything, and the 4680 is now finally real instead of a paper design. Once the 4680 is ramped (and I mean really ramped and Tesla is flooded with battery cells), building more vehicles/models is lesser of a concern.

The board is set for step 7 (Tesla designed it's FSD computer and DOJO and is now leveraging those in order to (try to) achieve FSD).

Step 8 is the only step with 0% completion rate, since it is dependent on step 7.

What's in store for Part Three?

Most likely:
- Tesla insurance
- AI / Optimus
- (maybe) HVAC

Can't wait to find out.

 

[Buckminster]

What's in store for Part Three?

It will read like a 1970s Bloomingdales wedding list:

1. Natty bot gloves for gardening
2. Extra long bot marigolds for washing up
3. Bot hat with hidden umbrella
4. "How to teach your bot to train your dog" book

That kind of thing.

 

[2daMoon]

More like:

1. AI industry services expansion
2. Bots, bots, more bots
3. New products and services to make life easier, safer, better
4. World domination
5. Multi-world domination

 

[mars_or_bust]

To be fair, the first Tesla Masterplan wasn't entirely finished when Part Deux was released, but it was well underway.

Refresher:

1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Step 3 was the Model 3 back then (when part Deux released). The current ramp of 3 is still ongoing, as is the ramp of step 4. All in all, the plan is now complete, but its lasting impact is only in its infancy.

Part Deux stated (I numbered them for ease, the real plan contains no numbers):

5. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
6. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
7. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
8. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Step 5 is complete but ramping is needed for impact.

Step 6 contains the Model Y in my opinion, and Cybertruck, Semi, compact car and probably products to be announced when the time comes. It is unclear if by "vehicle" Elon means road transport or if he implied boats/aircraft. Personally I think he didn't mean to include these in this plan.
This step is far from complete but well underway since battery tech is everything, and the 4680 is now finally real instead of a paper design. Once the 4680 is ramped (and I mean really ramped and Tesla is flooded with battery cells), building more vehicles/models is lesser of a concern.

The board is set for step 7 (Tesla designed it's FSD computer and DOJO and is now leveraging those in order to (try to) achieve FSD).

Step 8 is the only step with 0% completion rate, since it is dependent on step 7.

What's in store for Part Three?

Most likely:
- Tesla insurance
- AI / Optimus
- (maybe) HVAC

Can't wait to find out.

-Develop Mars Autonomous Vehicle

 

[ZachF]

Master plan part three:

Harvest the mass of mercury and the asteroid belt to create a dyson sphere

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504311459924398083

Outstanding!

My gut feeling for what Master Plan Part III will outline:

- Deploy Tesla Insurance across the USA and possibly other countries.
- Complete Optimus / Generalized AI humanoid robots.
- Develop residential HVAC all-in-one home solution using Octovalve tech.
- Deploy Tesla TaaS (Transportation As A Service) across the world.

 

[Artful Dodger]

-Develop Mars Autonomous Vehicle

That's literally the SpaceX Ed. Cybertruck w. FSD: (Nov 22, 2019)

"Tesla Cybertruck (pressurized edition) will be official truck of Mars," the SpaceX and Tesla CEO said via Twitter yesterday afternoon (Nov. 21), about six hours before showing the vehicle to the world during a webcast event. And the Red Planet connection doesn't exist merely in Musk's head.

Tesla's New 'Cybertruck' Has a Bit of SpaceX's Starship for Mars in ...
www.space.com › tesla-cybertruck-stainless-steel-spacex-starship​

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Turns out nickel ain't so expensive after all. I'll wait for the follow-up "articles" from Bloomberg.

Nickel falls 8% to hit limit down in chaotic trade on London Metal Exchange

The benchmark three-month nickel contract fell 8% to hit its new trading limit as heavy selling continued in metal markets.

www.cnbc.com

The price hit $41,945 a metric ton as it opened for trade, according to Refinitiv data. Nickel prices more than doubled in a matter of hours on March 8, climbing above $100,000 a metric ton as one of the world’s top producers, China’s Tsingshan Holding Group, bought large amounts to reduce its short bets on the metal.

Along with the Moderna CEO selling nearly half a billion in stock over the last 2 years, lots of stories coming out of scumbags making all sorts of cash off this pandemic.

 

[Drax7]

Master plan part three:

Harvest the mass of mercury and the asteroid belt to create a dyson sphere

And no more peanut butter sandwiches

 

[Speedr117]

The stragglers are going to be commercial and industrial vehicles. 8 years is going to be a challenge for them. But I’m hopeful that my country will figure that out just as well as they did the genesis of solar (and wind) power transition in the early 2000s.

I think you'll be surprised by commercial and industrial. They care about economics/costs more than anything else, and the cost savings of EVs vs. gas is substantial, especially the way they are used (i.e. high utilization). I think the only laggards are going to be use cases that EVs don't easily solve for. But even these will get solved eventually.

 

[ZeApelido]

I agree.

And it is also good for our bank accounts when investing in them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504351035560763395

 

[FS_FRA]

I think you'll be surprised by commercial and industrial. They care about economics/costs more than anything else, and the cost savings of EVs vs. gas is substantial, especially the way they are used (i.e. high utilization). I think the only laggards are going to be use cases that EVs don't easily solve for. But even these will get solved eventually.

I don't disagree with you at all.

Just the reality of it is, there are currently no available and viable alternatives at a mass-market scale:

- semi's (where's Tesla SEMI?)
- mid and light-weight commercial vehicles
- delivery vans
- agricultural tractors etc.
- construction excavators, front loaders, etc.
- other utility vehicles (such as garbage collection, fire trucks, ambulances, police)
- military vehicles
- and I'm sure I've missed a few

Where I am very optimistic is in commuter transportation. Many cities in Germany are already transitioning to electric busses and commuter rail is mostly electric already. Some of the older combustion-fired rail engines will be replaced.

Overall, I just think 8 years is practically tomorrow and there's nothing much commercially viable on offer.

 

[ZeApelido]

The BMW iX. When you want an EV with the frunk experience of an ICE:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504216381708902404

The
Competition
Is
Coming

 

[UncaNed]

Not much In the short term. Tesla have funding warehouses they can continue to fund leases from. This bond sale was just part of a regular securitisation process to empty the funding warehouses by getting external investors.

If the bond markets remain expensive for too long Tesla might end up filling their current funding warehouses at which point they would need to either stop writing leases or get additional funding warehouses. It will be very straightforward for Tesla to get more funding warehouses if needed. So nothing to worry about.

Given that <15% of vehicles are leased directly by Tesla it probably wouldn't even be an issue if they stopped funding leases directly as there's so much demand for their vehicles they could just sell them to others who don't need a lease from Tesla.

"funding warehouses"? Is that anything like a bank??

 

[15Peter20]

The BMW iX. When you want an EV with the frunk experience of an ICE:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504216381708902404

The
Competition
Is
Coming

Is the upskirting mirror on the back of the front seats intentional?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have to grudgingly admit, AJ still has a lot of influence on Wall St.

... and that's the 200-day moving average:

Ceres!

 

[Artful Dodger]

- semi's (where's Tesla SEMI?)

Elon needs to review the actual range needs of most day-cab, short-haul routes: <300 miles / day.

Bring out an LFP version of the Semi, Elon! Same weight as the long-range high-nickel battery version, but std-rge LFP is usable by businesses, and it could be available BEFORE 2030!

The Port of L.A. alone needs 300 such tractors! That's a major source of smog in Los Angeles.

Cheese!

 

[Speedr117]

I don't disagree with you at all.

Just the reality of it is, there are currently no available and viable alternatives at a mass-market scale:

- semi's (where's Tesla SEMI?)
- mid and light-weight commercial vehicles
- delivery vans
- agricultural tractors etc.
- construction excavators, front loaders, etc.
- other utility vehicles (such as garbage collection, fire trucks, ambulances, police)
- military vehicles
- and I'm sure I've missed a few

Where I am very optimistic is in commuter transportation. Many cities in Germany are already transitioning to electric busses and commuter trail is mostly electric already. Some of the older combustion-fired rail engines will be replaced.

Overall, I just think 8 years is practically tomorrow and there's nothing much commercially viable on offer.

Agree about 8 years being just a blink of the eye.

My instinct is some of these OEMs that won't be able to compete with Tesla, Chinese EVs, and maybe VW/Ford? So how will they survive? A lot won't, but some will be smart enough to go where there's a need and that's commercial/Industrial. Again, it's not a competition of one EV with another, it's EV vs. ICE. A bad EV in the commercial/Industrial world is light years ahead of an ICE vehicle in terms of operating expenses. And companies don't really care if the employees operating them have a laggy screen/infotainment.