Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Tesla is at the CVPR (Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition) Expo, with it seems the biggest booth and lots of opportunities for AI engineer recruiting. Over the years, the companies that are doing the most with AI have all had a huge presence here. 2066 papers accepted! Hopefully some great talks are given by Tesla that are shared out!

Next big event is Hot Chips Aug 23rd 830am PST talking about Dojo

 

[SOULPEDL]

As soon as new orders slow down, they can think about bringing down the prices.

Could you imagine the FUD on any Tesla brand price drops? That might tweak the Stock Price for a short bit.
OTOH, a summer sale on Tesla Battery Surplus Days like "Free Batteries!" Competition might resort to "Batteries not Included" for that Discount offering,
especially when this math sinks in on the 4680s:

 

[Knightshade]

It may actually be zero. They are not even bothering to email Tesla owners when insurance becomes available in their states. I knew and signed up for it only because of the forums. Even the news doesn't adequately cover it.

This is actually a weird/inconsistent thing where Tesla could improve... they obviously have their own customer data, in much more detail than other car makers in fact since they sell directly... but seem very sporadic about using it, and do so weirdly.

An email to customers in a state where insurance is introduced has virtually 0 marginal cost to Tesla and significant potential upside for new customers.

In contrast, I've gotten more than one email from them about solar roof, even though I know for a fact it's not even available here (let alone in the past when the emails came in) which suggests it was a blast and not targeted by location as would have made sense.

 

[JRP3]

US EV tax credit renewal still in play, but the added union bonus credit is out.

Manchin says EV Tax Credit Bonus Is Gone From Spending Bill

Senate Democrats have scrapped a $4,500 bonus tax credit for electric vehicles made with domestic union labor that was opposed by Senator Joe Manchin as they seek to wrap up negotiations on a spending deal.

www.bloomberg.com

In recent months, Manchin criticized the EV tax credit as “ludicrous,” complaining that it would subsidize a product for which there was a waiting list and that hydrogen vehicles should be incentivized instead.

 

[wtlloyd]

I did a classic spit-take when I read that piece. I would love to read what the manufacturing efficiency comparison is between BEV and FCEV. Must be an order of magnitude greater than regular ICE hybrids.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla is at the CVPR (Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition) Expo, with it seems the biggest booth and lots of opportunities for AI engineer recruiting. Over the years, the companies that are doing the most with AI have all had a huge presence here. 2066 papers accepted! Hopefully some great talks are given by Tesla that are shared out!

Next big event is Hot Chips Aug 23rd 830am PST talking about Dojo

View attachment 819574

That booth is 50'x30' and eclipses Meta; Cruise hides on the bottom yet still quite large as well. Size communicates everything, follow the money - FSD dwarfs Meta.

This would be a cool conference to attend actually. It is all our future. Nice to know Elon's leading the pack.

 

[StealthP3D]

65K is a number. That's all. 24 months ago, this number would have meant a lot more to Tesla as other prices were what theose were back then. Now, this number in relation to other prices/numbers still needs to keep its proper ratio for Tesla to make a profit.

This is simple but very many people don't get it at all. Not only that, but other car companies don't seem to get it either so they make negative profits which should not be named that way. They make cars at loss.

Tela does not need to sell the Model Y at $65K to make a profit. Their cost to produce is so far below that it's not even funny. The high price is a function of two related things:

1) Trying to match demand to production. It's not ideal for Tesla to let buyers reserve a car at a fixed price for delivery up to a year or more in the future. They want to reduce the order backlog to a shorter delivery timeframe. It's frustrating for potential buyers when they see how long they will need to wait.

2) Tesla can only make an educated guess of how much it will cost to produce the car 12 months or more in the future. The high price helps buffer their guess in the event things do not progress as expected and prices rise more dramatically than expected.

It's likely Tesla will be lowering prices within months to a year. Of course, if the $7500 tax credit becomes re-instated, price will likely remain high and may go even higher. The current high prices are not in line with current costs to produce. The margin on a Model Y is currently insanely good at $65K.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Another unpopular opinion coming in....

I really respect what Tesla is doing with AI and FSD. But I tend to think that Optimus is several years away. I just don't think that Tesla will have gotten that far ahead of the likes of Boston Dynamics and others on the physical bot front. I think that Tesla is using the bot program to entice high (very high) quality talent to come into Tesla to help finish FSD.

That's not a bad thing, but I'll be happy at AI day 2 to hear that FSD is done (or other very significant milestones). Anything interesting on the bot front will be gravy on the fries.

I think you're understating here. In my opinion, Tesla is ahead in AI but as far as getting a bot to balance on two feet and navigate the world, I have to think Tesla is WAY behind, and it will take more than several years for Optimus to be useful in any significant way. Long term, Tesla will succeed and be the leader. They have the most money, talent and Elon driving the mission. It's not going to be quick and easy though.

 

[henchman24]

Yeah I think it is very clear Tesla. estimates high on their price changes. You don't have to look any further than the margins on the vehicles over time. If demand becomes an issue, they have to wiggle room. If costs go down but demand stays this high, I think the likelihood is absurd margins rather than a price decrease. IMO Tesla is more likely to introduce lower end models to lower prices.. so we'll probably see the SR Y open up, then maybe a SR RWD Y open up, SR AWD 3, etc etc.

 

[GOVA]

Tela does not need to sell the Model Y at $65K to make a profit. Their cost to produce is so far below that it's not even funny. The high price is a function of two related things:

1) Trying to match demand to production. It's not ideal for Tesla to let buyers reserve a car at a fixed price for delivery up to a year or more in the future. They want to reduce the order backlog to a shorter delivery timeframe. It's frustrating for potential buyers when they see how long they will need to wait.

2) Tesla can only make an educated guess of how much it will cost to produce the car 12 months or more in the future. The high price helps buffer their guess in the event things do not progress as expected and prices rise more dramatically than expected.

It's likely Tesla will be lowering prices within month to a year. Of course, if the $7500 tax credit becomes re-instated, price will likely remain high and may go even higher. The current high prices are not in line with current costs to produce. The margin on a Model Y is currently insanely good at $65K.

re#1 - Is this a fact or your thinking? Do you have a MY made in US of A current cost breakdown as of June 2022? So, what is the cost?
Whaterver it is, Tesla does have to lower their margin either. The margin needs to be proportional to the inflation as well. Even if it is 20K of profit per car, they don't have to make it less because they can.

Lowering prices? I believe when I see it. The inflation is not stopping or reversing on this Friday.
Month to a year - range much? "Hey honey, be patient, I'll propose in a month to a year. Please don't leave."

 

[ZachF]

Not bad considering the macros today.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla is at the CVPR (Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition) Expo, with it seems the biggest booth and lots of opportunities for AI engineer recruiting. Over the years, the companies that are doing the most with AI have all had a huge presence here. 2066 papers accepted! Hopefully some great talks are given by Tesla that are shared out!

Next big event is Hot Chips Aug 23rd 830am PST talking about Dojo

View attachment 819574

GM and Ford must already have crack AI vision/LIDAR teams. I put on my best reading glasses and I still couldn't see they had a booth. Or maybe they have already solved autonomous driving but are waiting for the Hummer and F-150 Lightning to reach high volume production before releasing it?

 

[henchman24]

Not bad considering the macros today.

Tesla relative strength since late May is pretty obvious at this point. It won't always hold on the day to day, but the stock found footing... now we need the market to gain some strength.

 

[elasalle]

Analysts at end of Q3 - Tesla cheated. We based our models based on 2 GFs, and they started producing from 4. haha

 

[StealthP3D]

re#1 - Is this a fact or your thinking? Do you have a MY made in US of A current cost breakdown as of June 2022? So, what is the cost?
Whaterver it is, Tesla does have to lower their margin either. The margin needs to be proportional to the inflation as well. Even if it is 20K of profit per car, they don't have to make it less because they can.

Lowering prices? I believe when I see it. The inflation is not stopping or reversing on this Friday.
Month to a year - range much? "Hey honey, be patient, I'll propose in a month to a year. Please don't leave."

Sorry, my keyboard has been reluctant to type "a" or "s" (or double typing the same letters!). I meant to type "months to a year". Meaning approximately 9-18 months. However, the $7500 tax credit will likely mess with that unless it is delayed.

I don't have a current cost breakdown and I don't need one to know cost of production is well under $65K. The cost of raw materials is a very small percentage of the cost of the vehicle which is to say the cost to produce rises at a relatively small fraction of the rise of materials cost. Management has also told us unambiguously that they raise prices in anticipation of component price rises.

With everything taken together it is more than obvious that $65K is well above the current cost to produce. This shouldn't even be a question.

Anyone who knows how to fix the keyboaard problem on my laptop can PM me.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It may actually be zero. They are not even bothering to email Tesla owners when insurance becomes available in their states. I knew and signed up for it only because of the forums. Even the news doesn't adequately cover it.

Same in Az, I heard nothing. Lucky for us, Allstate is dishing out $85K for the Model Y based upon replacement costs for a new '23 LR with FSD and all upgrades - we can't complain.

When is 4680 Model Y avail to order and where? Is it for Tx only residents, or east vs west coast???

 

[Chenkers]

GM and Ford must already have crack AI vision/LIDAR teams. I put on my best reading glasses and I still couldn't see they had a booth. Or maybe they have already solved autonomous driving but are waiting for the Hummer and F-150 Lightning to reach high volume production before releasing it?

Cruise - 80% owned by GM. (30x30 booth)
Argo AI - 40% owned by Ford. (20x20 booth)

But size matters and Tesla's 50x30 booth dominates.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cruise - 80% owned by GM. (30x30 booth)
Argo AI - 40% owned by Ford. (20x20 booth)

But size matters and Tesla's 50x30 booth dominates.

But size matters

This right here ^^^^^

 

[15Peter20]

Sorry, my keyboard has been reluctant to type "a" or "s" (or double typing the same letters!). I meant to type "months to a year". Meaning approximately 9-18 months. However, the $7500 tax credit will likely mess with that unless it is delayed.

I don't have a current cost breakdown and I don't need one to know cost of production is well under $65K. The cost of raw materials is a very small percentage of the cost of the vehicle which is to say the cost to produce rises at a relatively small fraction of the rise of materials cost. Management has also told us unambiguously that they raise prices in anticipation of component price rises.

With everything taken together it is more than obvious that $65K is well above the current cost to produce. This shouldn't even be a question.

Anyone who knows how to fix the keyboaard problem on my laptop can PM me.

 

[SunCatcher]

Same in Az, I heard nothing. Lucky for us, Allstate is dishing out $85K for the Model Y based upon replacement costs for a new '23 LR with FSD and all upgrades - we can't complain.

When is 4680 Model Y avail to order and where? Is it for Tx only residents, or east vs west coast???

When you find out, please let us know. Thanks & good luck!