Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

NASDAQ closed at 13,047.
TSLA closed over 900.
Oil is down.
CPI dropping.

I hereby declare this bear market....

 

[Words of HABIT]

WeBull shows $900.09 close!!!

So, for all these calls and puts and such forth which I know nothing about (straight up shares for me, thank you very much), are the payouts based on the 4pm close (>900) or the after hours close (surely to be <900) of today? Just curious.

 

[2daMoon]

Whoda thunk it?

Tesla's direct-to-consumer model is better for companies and consumers

Research published by Growth From Knowledge shows that those who pay above MSRP have poor opinions of dealerships and brands.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558177641009651713

Model 3 LR getting LMFP packs?
Moving nickel based chemistry's to 4680 cells?

Likely related to a pricing adjustment comiing after the "Inflation Reduction Act" tax credits.. The Gov't won't decide / announce which vehicles are eligible until Dec 2022. Tesla needs to have that information before they can set retail prices for their cars in 2023.

Luckily, Tesla has more than enough of a backorder logjam to work through til then.

 

[hobbes]

Given that past 2-3 counts have been ~7K, and there is just one RORO leaving ~per week, which can handle 3.5-4K units, it seems some ships have not been account for?

I think that in the beginning, Tesla shared the ships with others and 3.5-4K which was typically loaded was just Tesla´s share. There are roro car carriers with up to 8,500 capacity: https://dailylogistic.com/largest-roro-ships/ Unfortunately didn´t find the capacity in units of cars for the current ships used by Tesla (see https://twitter.com/FMossotto), maybe someone else has more luck?

 

[StealthP3D]

Welcome to Cap-a-rama my friends, the exciting end to a volatile trading week.

In this corner, wearing the dark shorts, is the market makers trying to protect nearly 20,000 sold call contracts at 900-strike. They're fighting an uphill battle with nearly 40 minutes left in trading, NASDAQ over 13000 today, and still rising.

In this corning, wearing the light-colored shorts, are hundreds of thousands of hard workers, trying to secure their retirements. TSLA is due for a run higher, but the market makers have just thrown a tough cross-body block and have stalled the TSLA climb at 897 while the NASDAQ runs higher. Electrifying!

The end of the regular trading session used to be the end of the week. But the market makers realized if they could get the after-hours trading to be recognized by the options contracts, they would have a lower volume market to fix their imbalances and further boost their profitability. So, if you want to mess with the ultimate manipulators, buy shares in aftermarket trading for under $900 before the session closes.

If the macro outlook remains largely unchanged over the weekend, I think Monday morning is good for at least a $10-$20 pop (if not a lot more).

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558177641009651713

Model 3 LR getting LMFP packs?
Moving nickel based chemistry's to 4680 cells?

Interesting. Could it also have to do something with new tax credit starting next year (leading to lower demand now)?

 

[steve3]

Cory is 6/6 for being right about bear traps. Every time there's a solid market dip, he tells the bears that it's a trap and stock explodes upward the next day.

Cat’s outa the bag… Cory’s secretly seeing @Krugerrand’s Mom. How else do you explain 6/6 ?

 

[Gigapress]

As long as the % propulsion efficiency is the same at both speeds for a given powertrain, then the % range loss is equal to 1 - old speed/new speed. So for instance, increasing the speed from 65 to 80 mph would decrease range by a factor of 65/80 irrespective of the powertrain. Basically the ICEV would continue wasting 70% of the energy at higher speeds, but that waste portion will have grown in proportion to the wind drag, making the whole pie bigger.

Now an ICEV usually has more range than an EV, so this % reduction is more of a tangible problem for an EV in practice.

The % change in energy consumption per mile is, similarly, equal to the % change in speed. Consequently, higher speeds amplify the energy cost advantage of a Tesla Semi over a diesel semi. If for example the Tesla saves $0.25/mile on using electricity instead of diesel fuel when driving at 60 mph, then at 75 mph it would save $0.25 * 75/60 = $0.31/mile.

That extra 6 cents per mile is worth roughly $50k in net present value over a million miles of operation spanning a decade. I don't know if it's exactly that much but the point is that after doing the math I now believe Tesla was seriously sandbagging the cost savings of the Semi with their worst-case scenario comparison by presenting for 60 mph instead of 70 or 75 with more reasonable average diesel prices.

The same math applies to high-speed robotaxi fleets. Someday, especially in Boring Loops, we hope to see Robotaxis driving at maybe 100 mph or more. Little differences in energy efficiency are of amplified importance at those speeds and will contribute to Tesla vehicles being the clear economic winner for such fleets.

Spoiler: Physics Derivation

Example:

• ICE car gets 30 miles per gallon at 65 mph at 30% propulsion efficiency.
• 33.7 kWh per gallon of gasoline

What is power of wind drag assuming rolling resistance is negligible?

33.7 kWh potential energy/1 gallon​

* 30% propulsion efficiency​

* 1 gallon / 30 miles​

* 65 miles/1 hour​

= 22 kW of wind drag power​

​

If the gas car has an 18-gallon tank, it can sustain 30 mpg * 18 gal = 540 miles of range in this operating condition before running out of fuel.

​

If the speed is increased to 80 mph, the drag becomes 22*(80/65)^2 = 33 kW.

33 kW of wind drag power​

/ 30% propulsion efficiency​

* 1 hour/80 miles​

* 1 gallon/33.7 kWh​

= 0.0408 gallons per mile​

--> 24.4 mpg​

​

24.4 mpg * 18 gal = 439 miles range = 19% range loss vs 65 mph.​

​

Now let's take the same car and substitute a Model 3 powertrain with 85 kWh of useable battery and 90% propulsion efficiency.

22 kW of wind drag​

/ 90% propulsion efficiency​

* 1 hour/65 miles​

= 0.376 kWh of battery drain/mile​

--> 2.66 miles/kWh​

Range at 65 mph is 2.66 miles/kWh * 85 kWh = 226 miles

Again comparing at 80 mph:

​

33 kW of wind drag power​

/ 90% propulsion efficiency​

* 1 hour/80 miles​

= 0.461 kWh of battery drain/mile​

--> 2.17 miles/kWh​

2.17 miles/kWh * 85 kWh = 185 miles range = 19% range loss vs 65 mph. Same as the percentage loss for the ICE version, and this will always be true in general as long as propulsion efficiency doesn't vary with speed. This isn't quite true but it's close enough for this approximation.

​

General formula:
Wind drag power / propulsion efficiency / speed = stored energy used / mile
range = stored energy total / (stored energy/mile)

range = stored energy tot / (wind/efficiency/speed)
range = stored energy tot * efficiency * speed / wind

r2/r1 = (stored energy2 * efficiency2 * speed2 / wind2) / (stored energy1 * efficiency1 * speed1 / wind1)
Stored energy and propulsion efficiency are constant
r2/r1 = (stored energy2 * efficiency2 * speed2 / wind2) / (stored energy1 * efficiency1 * speed1 / wind1)
r2/r1 = speed2/speed1 * wind1/wind2

w2/w1 = (speed2/speed1)^2​

r2/r1 = speed2/speed1 * (speed1/speed2)^2
r2/r1 = speed1/speed2


Define x = energy/mile

x = Wind drag power / propulsion efficiency / speed
x2/x1 = (Wind2 / efficiency2 / speed2) / (Wind1 / efficiency1 / speed 1)
Propulsion efficiency is constant
x2/x1 = (Wind2 / efficiency2 / speed2) / (Wind1 / efficiency1 / speed 1)
x2/x1 = (wind2/wind1) * (speed1/speed2)

w2/w1 = (speed2/speed1)^2​

x2/x1 = (speed2/speed1)^2 * (speed1/speed2)
x2/x1 = Speed2 / Speed 1

Oops, I did this wrong. Force is proportional to speed squared. Power (kilowatts) is proportional to speed cubed.

This means the % change in range is actually 1 - (old speed/new speed)^2 and the % change in energy consumption is (new speed/old speed)^2.

This means in my first post I was majorly understating how much Tesla has understated the Semi's cost advantage.

If for example the Tesla saves $0.25/mile on using electricity instead of diesel fuel when driving at 60 mph, then at 75 mph it would save $0.25 * 75/60 = $0.31/mile $0.25 * (75/60)^2 = $0.39/mile

That extra 6 cents per mile 14 cents per mile would be worth roughly $115k in net present value over a million miles of operation spanning a decade.

Spoiler: Physics Derivation (Corrected)

General formula:
Wind drag power / propulsion efficiency / speed = stored energy used / mile
range = stored energy total / (stored energy/mile)

range = stored energy tot / (wind/efficiency/speed)
range = stored energy tot * efficiency * speed / wind

r2/r1 = (stored energy2 * efficiency2 * speed2 / wind2) / (stored energy1 * efficiency1 * speed1 / wind1)
Stored energy and propulsion efficiency are constant
r2/r1 = (stored energy2 * efficiency2 * speed2 / wind2) / (stored energy1 * efficiency1 * speed1 / wind1)
r2/r1 = speed2/speed1 * wind1/wind2

w2/w1 = (speed2/speed1)^3

r2/r1 = speed2/speed1 * (speed1/speed2)^3
r2/r1 = (speed1/speed2)^2


Define x = energy/mile

x = Wind drag power / propulsion efficiency / speed
x2/x1 = (Wind2 / efficiency2 / speed2) / (Wind1 / efficiency1 / speed 1)
Propulsion efficiency is constant
x2/x1 = (Wind2 / efficiency2 / speed2) / (Wind1 / efficiency1 / speed 1)
x2/x1 = (wind2/wind1) * (speed1/speed2)

w2/w1 = (speed2/speed1)^3

x2/x1 = (speed2/speed1)^3 * (speed1/speed2)
x2/x1 = (Speed2 / Speed 1)^2

 

[Singuy]

Likely related to a pricing adjustment comiing after the "Inflation Reduction Act" tax credits.. The Gov't won't decide / announce which vehicles are eligible until Dec 2022. Tesla needs to have that information before they can set retail prices for their cars in 2023.

Luckily, Tesla has more than enough of a backorder logjam to work through til then.

Okay but why Canada?

 

[inconel]

Okay but why Canada?

Then could be Fremont retooling for megacasting as was suggested?

 

[StealthP3D]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558177641009651713

Model 3 LR getting LMFP packs?
Moving nickel based chemistry's to 4680 cells?

Since when does Tesla call a car with an estimated range of 'only' 267 "Long Range" or "LR". It doesn't make sense.

 

[Singuy]

Then could be Fremont retooling for megacasting as was suggested?

You would think they close it off for the rest of the world first and U.S/Canada last if that's the case. However it's open for rest of the world still....

 

[Singuy]

Since when does Tesla call a car with an estimated range of 'only' 267 "Long Range" or "LR". It doesn't make sense.

You have to click on the entire tweet, it is showcasing the LR AWD as greyed out.

 

[AudubonB]

Haha, this is literally true! Elon DOES have 12 x 1% of TSLA shares now vested which he can execute at any time he chooses to pay the income tax (will trigger a tax bill for Tesla too, so there's more than just Elon in this).

Anyway, all those shares he sold back in Nov/Dec 21? Those were (mostly) to cover his income tax obligations for executing his stock options for his 2012 CEO comp. plan. He still has ~ 12% of TSLA's May 2018 share count to execute.

TL;dr Elon can buy shares via executing his stock options, and pay the tax in cash, at least for the 1st little bit (but not all). It's close to 100M shares currently. That's like $42 B in income tax owed if executed at the current SP :O

I have the feeling Elon will be donating a large number to charity to get control of his taxes payable. Paging @mongo for a sanity check...

Cheers!

He can donate-in-kind a Megapack to the Paxson Community Association, any time he wants (with associated 260-300 solar panels as well). That will be necessary, anyway, for the EVification of the Richardson and Denali Highways.
I just need to clear that with the PCA Presiden…..Oops, I just did!

 

[thesmokingman]

This story below has nothing to do with Tesla and is about real estate, yet they stick Elon's name in there for clicks. He must be like the most famous non-celeb out there. It's insanity, he hasn't owned those homes in years, doesn't even live in CA anymore, so far removed... yet.

More homebuyers are taking a cue from Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and buying up real estate to create 'compounds' in their neighborhoods and keep investors out

Neighbors in Massachusetts joined forces and finances to buy a home for nearly $3 million and keep investors out, The Wall Street Journal reported.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[elasalle]

I think that in the beginning, Tesla shared the ships with others and 3.5-4K which was typically loaded was just Tesla´s share. There are roro car carriers with up to 8,500 capacity: https://dailylogistic.com/largest-roro-ships/ Unfortunately didn´t find the capacity in units of cars for the current ships used by Tesla (see https://twitter.com/FMossotto), maybe someone else has more luck?

It has been reported to be around 3.5K to 4K ( for prior loads). I think Franco himself mentioned it in a tweet a while back

 

[MP3Mike]

You would think they close it off for the rest of the world first and U.S/Canada last if that's the case. However it's open for rest of the world still....

Where does the rest of the world get LR Model 3s? Don't most of them come from Giga Shanghai now? So Fremont doing retooling wouldn't impact them. (Of course that doesn't make sense as they are still selling RWD and Performance variants.)

 

[DriveMe]

A $54,990 Model 3 is coming!

LR- ? MR+?

 

[Singuy]

Where does the rest of the world get LR Model 3s? Don't most of them come from Giga Shanghai now? So Fremont doing retooling wouldn't impact them. (Of course that doesn't make sense as they are still selling RWD and Performance variants.)

I thought Shanghai only makes SR+ no?