Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Silly shortys... don't you know the plan is written such that when a goal is achieved it remains achieved?

Yeah, I don't think the TSLA bears think they can block Elon's CEO compensation. Rather, I think they think that $650B should be the Mkt Cap of the company right now, not some "egregious" value based on, oh you know, stuff like future earnings growth? Which is why the clever bears now attack Tesla's growth story, since they can't be proven false for years, and they can make book right now. Hahaha, Wall Street..."efficient markets".

Eagerly awaiting Secret Master Plan Part Trois, hopefully shortly after the I.R. Act policies for renewables are finalized on Dec 31, 2022.

Cheers!

 

[betstarship]

Yeah, I don't think the TSLA bears think they can block Elon's CEO compensation. Rather, I think they think that $650B should be the Mkt Cap of the company right now, not some "egregious" value based on, oh you know, stuff like future earnings growth? Which is why the clever bears now attack Tesla's growth story, since they can't be proven false for years, and they can make book right now. Hahaha, Wall Street..."efficient markets".

Eagerly awaiting Secret Master Plan Part Trois, hopefully shortly after the I.R. Act policies for renewables are finalized on Dec 31, 2022.

Cheers!

Dear god, I'm exhausted from reading that post

 

[WattsHappening]

No, no, that would be Dos Equis Machina.

Star thirsty my friends!

This makes me recall the good old days when @jbcarioca would grace us with his thoughts/ramblings (I mean this in a very positive way), as I considered him to be the 'most interesting man on TMC.'

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dear god, I'm exhausted from reading that post

Well in fact I've been raising this issue since at least Q1 when troi started spitting bare talking posts targeting 'demand' (it's their best hope to cap the share price by souring the milk). But you won't see all of my comments on the topic here anymore because MODS deleted many of them. No matter. I don't write for the MODS, and I don't need a PATREON.

 

[Ogre]

The Good

• Development shortcuts enabled Ford to get this out to market faster
• Stuff successfully routed through small crevices to enable giant frunk that's easy to access even for people who are short
• Some differences in frame design vs. ICE F-150 improves effective performance of the shocks
• Sturdy structure
• Some structural cradles in legacy ICE design deleted
• Rims look futuristic
• Much simpler than Rivian R1T chassis

The Bad

• Basically a traditional gas F-150 architecture that was retrofitted in a hurry in order to have an electric powertrain
• Horrible system integration; mostly a chaotic hodgepodge of off-the-shelf modules purchased from suppliers
• Coolant hoses and extra wires and fasteners all over
• Ugly mess, which makes installation more difficult and makes defects less visually self-evident
• Traditional body-on-frame construction inherently heavier and less stiff than Cybertruck aerospace-style stressed skin design (4 mm thick stamped parts in many locations to compensate for inferior geometry)
• No castings, frame assembly requires many stamped parts and fastening and welding operations
• Inefficient non-structural monuments that only perform crash safety functions but do not support other loads
• Battery mounts to big, heavy stamped steel subframe
• Simple spring suspension without adaptive height and stiffness

View attachment 864794 View attachment 864795 View attachment 864796 View attachment 864801 View attachment 864802 View attachment 864804 View attachment 864806 View attachment 864811 View attachment 864812

This is the latest generation of America's best-selling truck for the last four decades. Ford appears to have learned no lessons from the Mach-E thermal management disaster, or their design process is so slow and rigid that implementations of the fixes have been postponed until future model years. This is the result of not even bothering to take EVs slightly seriously until 2018 and having a typical 7-year product development timeline.

North American pickup trucks are the most profitable vehicle segment in the whole global auto industry, and Cybertruck's competitive advantage is much stronger than I had estimated before seeing this video.

This is clearly the result of Ford prioritizing getting a truck to market. It is a placeholder which might break even (unlikely) and will cost them more money down the road as warrantee issues and recalls start to roll in.

Much like GM, Ford wants to be perceived as being technology and market leaders and this helps Ford give that appearance.

I don’t know if it’s a great choice on their part to put a placeholder truck on the market. Likely they wanted it out there when the Cybertruck launched so they could forestall Cybertruck from stealing share and the truck market. In the long run they need something a lot better than this and it may well backfire if it’s unreliable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

At this rate we might even crack Friday's opening SP!

Capped at the 'top' again, wot?

Cheers!

 

[WattsHappening]

For those of you who follow me in the "Papafox's Daily Tesla Trading Charts" thread, you know that I've been busy rolling my Jan23 deep in the money call options to Jun23s. By trading from an IRA I can usually manage zero cost rolls (using strong up-trend days like today or strong down trend days like Friday). What I suggest is that you look at your current long term call options and ask yourself if they fit your current thesis of where to place a likely-profitable bet. If your current options don't fit that thesis, then consider modifying the option bets to fit your thesis. If you're trading from an IRA or 401K in a tax-on-trading-free environment, then you're good to go. OTOH, if you're trading from a regular brokerage account you normally are constrained by the wash rule (selling for a loss and then rebuying) or tax consequences (short-term gains upon selling your less-desirable call option). There is a sweet spot, however, when you can avoid both gotchas: when the value of your original bet is slightly better than break even. At such a time the wash rule no longer applies and tax consequences are a pittance. Some time in the near future we may well see TSLA rise high enough to reach that sweet spot for the options you are holding. If you want to change your options for something that looks more likely to succeed, that's a good time to do so.

I read your posts daily; thank you again for your insights.

I've been kicking myself for not having been more aggressive implementing your roll ideas. A while back, I sold several Jan 2023 ITM calls (I used to consider them DITM, but not anymore ) and then immediately put in an order to buy the same strike price, but March 2023 expiration. That order executed several days later. Since then, I've been like a deer in headlights and haven't been able to pull the trigger on more rolls.

I considered it on Thurs, as I didn't trust the reaction to the CPI numbers. Kicked myself again when I saw the price action on Friday.

Well, I sold several more today, right at the highs of the day (woo-hoo to me!) and placed a GTC limit order to buy back again, this time for June expiration at a slightly higher strike price (same option price as I sold). With this open position, I won't be horribly upset if the SP takes a step back before taking two steps forward. Of course this probably means the SP won't get back down to where my order is going to execute. Happy to take one for the team if this is the case!

 

[ZeApelido]

Yeah, I don't think the TSLA bears think they can block Elon's CEO compensation. Rather, I think they think that $650B should be the Mkt Cap of the company right now

$650 billion? I remember when bears thought Tesla wasn't even worth 5 billion.

It must be a sad toilet time realization for the shorts that their fair market valuation has gone up 100x on a company they hate!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Awesome US figures. Thought they deserved some love.

View attachment 864746

Great job converting those into a graphic, but . . . typically time lines increase from left to right. Thus, the later year values (2022) should have been on the right side, not the left. That said, thanks for posting these images.

 

[Artful Dodger]

“If we assume Tesla sells 9% more vehicles than Toyota [in 2031] Tesla has 56%+ downside,” Trainer wrote. The logic is that for Tesla to get that big, its operating profit margins would have to fall to match those of its competitors. For Tesla, sales 9% higher than Toyota’s and comparable operating profit margins would yield roughly $44 billion in 2031 operating profit.

And AMZN would have to hide AWS. And AAPL would only make iPods...

 

[brantse]

By my math, today's $16.xx gain was a $250 move, pre-pre split.

We won't bother doing that calculation on the way down, but it feels so good on the way up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582108855814586368

Soooooo..........what about those chip shortages that legacy auto continues to keep claiming is holding up production?

 

[Skryll]

Soooooo..........what about those chip shortages that legacy auto continues to keep claiming is holding up production?

Short of desirable product?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

$TSLA up $3+ in AH...Somebody knows something or Big $$ shorted the *sugar* out of it last week and gobbled up enough shares of the panic sellers, margin calls and stop losses.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nah...still vaporware according to GJ.

 

[Discoducky]

$TSLA up $3+ in AH...Somebody knows something or Big $$ shorted the *sugar* out of it last week and gobbled up enough shares of the panic sellers, margin calls and stop losses.

Seems like a macro lift as all my watched stocks are about the same % up AH.

 

[Discoducky]

View attachment 864861


Nah...still vaporware according to GJ.

It has been such a long wait to finally see VINs for Semi's. What a wonderful thing!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Seems like a macro lift as all my watched stocks are about the same % up AH.

We get what we get and we do not get upset

 

[BornToFly]

Really?

Rivian up 6.93% or a big 1.99
Tesla up 7.01% or 14.36, higher AH.

You do understand that when I posted the market was still open, so what was true at that moment would not be forever... right?

I was also pointing out that TSLA's gains today had little to do with earnings in two days....

And percentages are just that. If you had $1M in Rivian, or $1M in TSLA, you made the same amount of money today.

 

[DragonWatch]

Not until they start producing the Semi and Cybertruck in volume and have maxed out 3/Y production.

Forward Observing

First, the timeline is up to Tesla, not me ~ no timeline suggested in the original quote.

While, sitting in local public park, to enjoy lunch, in front of the justice department ~ it occurred to me that parking is at a primimun ~ the Model 3 is already proving itself as I noted in my post you quoted. Someone could buy a fleet of M3s, and provide self driving taxi’s. Position two or three charging/maintenance garages strategically located outside/skirts of the city.

Someone with new found doors opened thanks to Tesla stock could retool their thinking. Instead of thinking of a vineyard venture, think Tesla FSD taxi business. The devil is in the details, but hey ~ nothing ventured, nothing gained.

FYI ~ vineyard industry has gone the way of mega corporations. Now architecture here is king in the vineyard.

Got to catch the boat tomorrow, been clocking four miles a day walking. So, if you see a 70 something gray hair old odd couple, wave and yell Tesla. Good for one wave back