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  1. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yep. But the other one suggested $240 was the next big stop on the roller coaster if we busted 221.
  2. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yesterday closed at 221. Opened at ~228 today. Is this a "Gap" which will need to be filled later? Why or why not?
  3. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I seriously doubt there was ever going to be a full on beachhead across the Dneipro. The possibility of breaching the dam has always been there and Ukraine simply lacks the fleet of boats they would need to make a rapid move across the river like that. Occupying the island was an effective way...
  4. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Made the mistake of watching a couple Technical Analysis videos yesterday. One of them suggested there were no major road blocks between here and $300/ share with a fairly open ended interpretation of when. The other was shorter term and suggested that opening strong today and holding it would...
  5. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I’m sure Russia would far prefer plausible deniability here. Much like they are denying they destroyed the dam, they will want something other than just blowing up the plant which they can blame on Ukraine.
  6. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Will TSLA double my Cybertruck Ticket gets pulled? I think this is the question most of us really want the answer to. A TSLA double frees up a lot more money for accessories and FSD. I’m sure a lot of folks are thinking the same with regards to the Roadster, but I’m a bit less ambitious.
  7. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I know these Russian words and Cyrillic spellings can be super confusing, but I think we can get this one word right if we try. Dam - A large structure that holds back water or other fluids. "The Hoover Dam generates a lot of electricity!" Damn - Be condemned by god to eternal damnation. More...
  8. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For the moment, set aside rumors and old data about 4680 production volume. The Model Y AWD is the top vehicle on Tesla's Model Y page. It is $3,000 less than the Model Y LR. What percentage of buyers do you think will tap on that Model Y button? That's all I'm looking at. This is why I was...
  9. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla was comfortable adding the Model Y to their web site as the base Model Y offering and $3,000 less than the LR. Seems very likely at least 15-20% of Model Ys sold in the US are this configuration at this point. I seem to recall the Model 3 SR was about half the volume of Model 3 prior...
  10. Ogre

    Cybertruck towing discussion

    This does not appear to be the case. Tesla is using similar technology and 1000v charging, but the actual adaptor is different because the Semi needs about 4x as much power delivered. The Cybertruck will have a connector which is compatible with existing Superchargers (The NACS standard) while...
  11. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The vast majority of cars sold in Q1 were sold at the prices set early in the Q. There was a massive sales spike and a month+ wait list after those prices were set. If you are going to talk about the “Average” price, that is where you should be looking, not at the columns where sales slowed...
  12. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The vast majority of Teslas sold in the 1st quarter enjoyed the pricing set in mid-January. There was a huge spike in sales and orders backed up a bit. A handful of sales during the end of the quarter were based on those peak prices. You can safely lower the average price for the quarter by...
  13. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    This all sort of assumes it will fail due to neglect/ lack or resources to repair. My worry about ZNPP is that it will be actively sabotaged by the Russians. That 2 weeks of fuel becomes tank fuel or destroyed. Coolant pond dams can get blown. This is my big concern. They’ve already shown...
  14. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can’t understand how someone can invest in a company when they clearly think company management is completely incompetent. I get how people can be bearish about specific things, lots of things which are concerning, particularly around the Macro and delivery timelines. But the way you paint it...
  15. Ogre

    Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

    The tax credits are definitely more appealing next year. Getting that $7500 shaved off the loan makes that value much more apparent when comparing car payments. Cybertruck sales coming on line just in time to take advantage of that.
  16. Ogre

    Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

    Hmm. Big price drop on the Model 3 plus the full $7,500 incentives would be a huge blow to Toyota and Honda. Model 3 is already more affordable than the Prius Prime. Pretty much a huge blow to anyone not named Tesla who wants to sell sedans and compact-mid sized cars.
  17. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia worked to maximize the destruction since they lost Kherson (city).
  18. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia mined the dam when they lost the right bank of the river. Ukraine knew this and wouldn’t have risked crossing the dam until they had eliminated the risk of the Russians blowing the dam.
  19. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia just destroyed the Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric Dam. This is the big one. This will not only flood huge parts of Kherson, it will starve Crimea of water for years to come. This seems like Russia’s admission that they expect to lose the Crimea. Very unlikely this is strategic unless...
  20. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've kind of expected they had a Highland line coming on in Texas. Would not surprise me a bit.
  21. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    How do you say you’re planning a coup without saying you are planning a coup…
  22. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In other news, RIM is investing another $1 billion on improved keyboards for mobile devices. They're certain this generation is going to make everyone realize mobile phones really do need keyboards.
  23. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I knew Bob and Doug Mckenzie were a secret plot by Canadian Intelligence all along.
  24. Ogre

    Cybertruck towing discussion

    Not sure, but I have heard some people have had success with tapping into their regenerative braking wiring.
  25. Ogre

    Cybertruck towing discussion

    You forgot step -1 -1) Buy the smallest trailer/ camper you can possibly get away with using. Reconsider your needs. Maybe you really don't need the headache of pulling a 34 foot mini-house behind your truck.
  26. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    My personal take is that it doesn't matter at all. And we shouldn't be giving crappy articles a platform. If it did, then Canada would be justified in invading the US. Every county on the planet has bad mixed with the good. Every neighborhood.
  27. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I've been assured that it's on 12/9. Nostradamelonus mentioned those numbers once while he was on the toilet so it must mean something eventually.
  28. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I think at this point, Prigozhin just wants to get out of Russia and set up HQ in Sudan or CAR and wants to get as many of his experienced troops out of Russia before the storm comes. Seemed like he was going to get involved in the chaos earlier in the war, but at this point I think he just...
  29. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Where were they sensored, what did the tweets contain? Not enough information here to say what happened, let alone what kind of person Elon is. Twitter complies with local laws. In Russia Twitter will comply with the governments requests where they have to in order to avoid getting shut down.
  30. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just wish instead of talking up the edge cases with strict income qualifiers he just talked up the price which most people will pay because that is pretty awesome. List the crazy income gated stuff in a separate post.
  31. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are missing the point here. These are edge-cases at best. Spewing these as if it is something people can commonly attain is disingenuous. I’m sure there are a few people who pay enough federal taxes to claim the full rebate, qualify for the state incentives, the state hasn’t run out of...
  32. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Similar issues with people who claim you can get Teslas with $12k in rebates here in Oregon. The number of people who can qualify for some of the rebates are unlikely to qualify for all. Here in Oregon, the rebate money for 2023 ran out already so seems like you need to order your car earlier in...
  33. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Bloomberg thinking Tesla is going to pocket $41b over the next 10 years in IRA manufacturing incentives (not consumer credits, manufacturing credits). My big takeaways here are They are likely vastly over-estimating how many EVs GM will make over the next 10 years. Likely under-estimating...
  34. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When the EV incentives passed, lots of people assumed the price of EVs would stay flat as dealers and Tesla pocketed the incentives and prices of the vehicles go up. It is good to see the exact opposite has been true for Tesla. This has also had a massive effect on the price of non-Tesla EVs...
  35. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Could be. But I suspect it's simpler than that. Given the wording on the infrastructure charger funding, this might well open up more government funding for Supercharger locations. It is also very compatible with Tesla's mission. Tesla has a lot of employees who stick around due in part to the...
  36. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It looks like the big money is defending 215 (See @SOULPEDL post). Don't think they will spend a ton of money driving the SP down below that. May was good to us. June too so far. Hopefully June continues to be generous.
  37. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes. This is such a huge flex from Tesla. Imagine if: (Examples only here, don't clog up this thread arguing them pls & thks) Apple had opened up the API for the blue bubbles. Facebook launched a public API for their feed. Google actually open sourced Android. Microsoft had open sourced...
  38. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Soorry, Everything I know about our neighbors to the north I learned from Bob, Doug, and Geddy. Also.
  39. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    These don't look like Ys to me. Too tall.
  40. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's a bunch of castings. Starting to see these in volume. I wonder if these are keepers or destined for scrap. Now we've seen front and rear castings for the truck. Lines up with rumors that production starts sometime this month.
  41. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Choose your own narrative: Bears (& Troy Teslike): Demand problems in China cause Tesla to export to Canadia! Bulls: Demand in North America so great Giga Texas and Fremont cannot product enough cars to meet demand in Canadia!
  42. Ogre

    Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

    This is very likely a render or a fake.
  43. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Places that serve Dim Sum often serve jellied chicken feet. No offense to those who enjoy them... but most westerners think they are revolting.
  44. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m just hoping they have the full stack working well enough they can replace the autopilot code with it for non-Beta/ non-FSD users.
  45. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmm. This reminds me. When or is Tesla ever going to rename FSD in California to comply with their new law? At the current rate maybe they just drag it out until FSD is L5 🤣
  46. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Ukraine's low-risk "Offensive" strategy: Build up personnel and equipment in a seemingly strategic location. Make cautious, calculated attacks with attainable objectives that threaten to escalate. Make diversionary attacks in multiple places where Russia must react. Increase pressure when...
  47. Ogre

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Mentioned this above. If I don’t know the source I assume it’s BS.
  48. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Reminds me of when the 4680 Model Y got launched, lots of rumors about 400 mile range and such. My bet is Highland is just the Model 3, exactly as advertised but cheaper to produce. It’ll have upgrades, but mostly hidden stuff like 48v and HW4. no big spec bumps.
  49. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Starting to look like Musk is getting ready to ship the Burnt Hair in large quantities and somebody knows why. Or perhaps this is someone with $2b short position being the first one to the exit. Love to see a proper short squeeze here.