Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Yeah: I am something other than happy. My fees are 6¢ per hour - meaning the cumulative bill comes to $16 e^4 and rising.

Endit.

 

[thesmokingman]

Hmmm, I’m seeing the same spike in pre market SP in other EV tickers like Nio, Lucid and Rivian.

Obviously something is going on but what

Don't say the B word just yet.

 

[Buckminster]

OT
I haven't watched yet. Some (including future CT owners) will want to watch.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bought 23 shares today. My first dip! Looks like the shares have stopped falling!

I suspect we're done with the drops, keeping it >. IMO, it's too close now to P&D while Q4 inventory bottoms out a bit early, and max volume today didn't break it.

(Full disclosure, I may have said this in the past, I just can't recall.)

 

[thesmokingman]

Lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607964575915196416

Man that competition is really something. The SUC team must be shaking in their boots.

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA in green
i never thought the day would come
okay, i am no longer mad at Elon
i hope he stays CEO for another 30 years

 

[ElectricIAC]

Yeah: I am something other than happy. My fees are 6¢ per hour - meaning the cumulative bill comes to $16 e^4 and rising.

Endit.

Could we settle on gum?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I suspect we're done with the drops, keeping it >. IMO, it's too close now to P&D while Q4 inventory bottoms out a bit early, and max volume today didn't break it.

(Full disclosure, I may have said this in the past, I just can't recall.)

OMG, I mentioned this to my wife and she bought 10 more TSLA shares just now.

 

[FSDtester#1]

TSLA in green
i never thought the day would come
okay, i am no longer mad at Elon
i hope he stays CEO for another 30 years

Find out who hacked your account yesterday, and welcome back !

 

[googlepeakoil]

I suspect we're done with the drops, keeping it >. IMO, it's too close now to P&D while Q4 inventory bottoms out a bit early, and max volume today didn't break it.

(Full disclosure, I may have said this in the past, I just can't recall.)

Pre-market we saw it rise 4% then fall back down. Maybe shorts are exiting short positions, that there's a lot of people eager to dip in and buy hoping it's been over-sold. Down 50% in a month, you'd hope so!

 

[FSDtester#1]

"Wood's Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) - purchased another 25,000 Tesla shares yesterday, according to data published on the ETF's website, taking its overall December total additions to just over 133,000 shares. Ark Innovation's holding now represents around 4.11 million shares, or 6% of the fund's total assets, making it the fifth largest in Wood's $29.79 billion flagship portfolio."

At least someone was buying yesterday

 

[navguy12]

OMG, I mentioned this to my wife and she bought 10 more TSLA shares just now.

See, and I gotta wait for the first business day of 2023 to buy $CAD 6,500 worth of chairs via my tax free savings account.

I was hoping the climb wouldn’t begin until that afternoon.

 

[StealthP3D]

BTW, Baird analyst Ben Kallo is the husband of CNBC anchor Melissa Lee.​

Tesla Stock Has Sunk This Year. But It's Still a 'Best Idea' for This Analyst in 2023. -- Barrons.com​

11:25 am ET December 28, 2022 (Dow Jones)
By Angela Palumbo

Tesla stock has fallen 69% this year. But that hasn't stopped a Baird analyst from recommending shares of the electric-vehicle company as a "Best Idea" in 2023.

On Tuesday, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) dropped to a two-year low. The stock's decline this year can be attributed to quite a few reasons, including production issues in China, demand concerns, rising competition, and of course, Chief Executive Elon Musk's takeover of social media platform Twitter.

Many analysts have noted their near-term concerns for the stock, with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives writing Tuesday that "the reality is that after a Cinderella story demand environment since 2018 Tesla is facing some serious macro and company specific EV competitive headwinds into 2023 that are starting to emerge both in the U.S. and China."

But Ives maintained his Outperform rating on Tesla, as did Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who argues that Tesla has several positive catalysts in the near term that make the stock a "Best Idea" for next year.

"Tesla has numerous projects underway which could contribute to growth over time," Kallo wrote in a research note Wednesday. These projects include the ramping up of production capacity at its factories, new vehicle introductions, and the introduction of an energy generator in the U.K.

"We continue to believe Tesla is best positioned in the auto market as EVs continue to take share of the total market. Additionally, its other opportunities such as Tesla energy will continue to grow in 2023," the Baird analyst added.

But Kallo acknowledged Tesla's near-term headwinds, namely the "potential for weakening of demand," and cut his 12 month price target on the stock to $252 from $316.

Shares of Tesla were rising 0.5% to $109.63 on Wednesday.

Write to Angela Palumbo at [email protected]

Bullish. Dan Ives worried about demand the last time in 2019, right before TSLA went on a multi-year bull run and Model 3 and Model Y became best sellers:

Tesla’s latest challenge is finding new customers for the Model 3

With the $35,000 Model 3 still not for sale, the company is turning to Europe and China

www.theverge.com

Tesla still hasn’t started production of the $35,000 version of the Model 3 originally promised in 2016, and some on Wall Street are worried that the company has tapped out demand for the higher-priced versions of the car in the United States — especially as other automakers are warning of a rough 2019 as car sales cool worldwide.
It would be a stark turnaround in the story of Tesla, considering the company spent most of 2018 proving it could make enough cars to satisfy hundreds of thousands of preorders. “Tesla has now shifted from a production story to a demand story,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote this week. There is clearly “heavy lifting ahead,” he said.

Musk says demand for Model 3 is “insanely high.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dismissed the issue of demand a number of times on that call. “The demand for Model 3 is insanely high.

This has been the media's story and the brokerage analysts' story since TSLA went public, that there was no demand for electric cars. The more Tesla would sell, analysts would say they thought Tesla had reached the limit of demand for their cars. And it's an easy way to spread FUD because there is no good way to measure demand except through past sales.

So, who do we believe, the guy at Tesla who has been right about demand all along, or the short-sighted brokerage analysts who have been wrong every single time they raise the upcoming "demand problem".

Tesla delivered about 63,000 cars in Q1 2019, in Q3 2022 Tesla delivered about 344,000 cars and at a much higher ASP and the increase alone between Q3 to Q4 this year will probably be greater than all the cars produced in Q1 2019, the last time Dan Ives brought up worries of demand. These analysts simply don't understand how EV's are disrupting ICE sales and how adoption curves work. Tesla entered the high-end market in 2012 with a sedan called the Model S. Analysts said it was a mistake because sedans have low market share that is shrinking. Then Tesla entered the mid-priced segment with a sedan, the Model 3. Again, analysts said this was a big mistake for the same reason, low demand for sedans. The middle of next year Tesla has announced they will begin mass production of a pickup truck, a market that is huge in N. America. Analysts say they are worried about demand because it's too different from traditional pickups (even though Tesla already has over 2 million deposits for a Cybertruck). Elon says he thinks it will be their best product yet.

Who do you believe? The problem all along has been not enough supply, not too little demand.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesmanian - today:
Tesla Model Y Will Be the Best-Selling EV in Germany in 2022

 

[SOULPEDL]

Welp, max pain is $124 for this week with all numbers of the wheel in play. But next week seems to have a bunch of calls at 200, and not much else happening. Could this be a sign that shorts are preparing to cut and run in the new year, or is it normal because the focus is all on this week or even this day? Anyone?

 

[Prunesquallor]

You all know who you are.

Warning: Bloomberg:

Even the worst year ever for Tesla Inc. shares hasn’t shaken individual investors’ faith in the electric-vehicle maker and its billionaire chief executive officer, Elon Musk.

Such retail traders have continued piling into the shares, data from Vanda Research show. In fact, they’ve been strong buyers every day this month, driving their net purchases to record highs in both December and the fourth quarter.

Tesla Fans Keep Buying, Unbowed by Stock’s $720 Billion Wipeout

Even the worst year ever for Tesla Inc. shares hasn’t shaken individual investors’ faith in the electric-vehicle maker and its billionaire chief executive officer, Elon Musk.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Ogre]

OT
I haven't watched yet. Some (including future CT owners) will want to watch.

Ran some quick numbers on this based on his numbers. My estimates are ballpark. Meant to give a general idea and nothing more.

300 mile range pack (Est 125 kWH and efficiency of ~2.5 miles/ kW)
Peak charging speed: Roughly 400-450 kW or 1100 Miles per hour.
From 0% charge, the first 10 minutes of charging should add about 150 miles range.

500 mile pack (Est 200 kWh with efficiency of 2.4 miles/ kW)
Peak charging speed: Roughly 700 kW or 1600 Miles per hour.
From 0% charge, the first 10 minutes of charging should add about 250 miles range.

The Cybertruck with the 500 mile pack is going to be the absolute king of road tripping. Not just the best truck, but better than any shipping vehicle at launch. Almost every stop will last no longer than biological necessity. Amount of charge restored should be enough to get you to the next bathroom stop (Or likely, further).

I know… not the Cybertruck thread. But it is nice to see how far ahead Tesla is on this stuff.

 

[CatB]

This price action is compounded by Shorts knowing that selling will continue through early this week for tax reasons, etc. @AudubonB mentioned this a couple weeks ago regarding the potential of Elon and others selling for their charitable contributions. These accounts must sell 5% of the value of their holdings (that is the value of the account on January 1st of this year). On a microscopic level we are in the same boat. We started a foundation a couple years ago with the concept of tithing to the community instead of to a church with a portion of our TSLA sales for living expenses on the way up. We have primarily given environmental & science scholarships and to the Food Banks, and local community support organizations. This year will be no different with our gifting, however this year we will take an Off the Top Rope - Elbow to the Head from Wall Street Randy Savage because I waited until the end of the year to sell, and the account is 100% TSLA. So we are unfortunately selling about 20% of the value of the account now to meet the criteria of 5% at the beginning of the year. This is tough, because it will effect the sustainability of giving many future scholarships. And because the Foundation was a very sincere effort for us, one that took much more effort and time than we would have ever imagined to give away a comparatively small amount of money. Wall Street doesn't care who gets crushed to get what they want. In the near term they will be crushing kids from a lower income community that might not have the chance to go to college otherwise. And they will be reducing the capacity for Food Bank donations when people need it more than any time in recent history.

But we don't make the rules of the game, we just try to figure out how to do our best and stay on the field as long as possible. Wise or not, this year's strategy is to sell and give accordingly, and then leverage our personal brokerage accounts buying power at today's prices to add enough shares on margin to supplement the lost 15% in the Foundation as the TSLA tide turns. It will cost us the interest out of our own pocket to get there, but the look on the students faces at the scholarship banquet, and the excitement from the Food Bank manager for the continued gifting makes it all worth while. And per @Ogre question regarding TA/Gap/etc..........I have previously posted that my personal opinion is that if we can hold this key point through the end of the year that we will be on the positive side of 200 again relatively quickly IMO. The last time we saw all stocks trading like this was of course 2008/2009, and it took about 1-2 months to get a similarly proportional rebound on the DJI that would take TSLA over 200. And it took about 2 years to return to previous highs, but that was the entire weighted DOW. Not TSLA with the IRA and other catalysts behind it. I am willing to eat a couple months of interest to refill the Foundation coffers,

Slightly OT, but appreciate the more important "long game" view. I was dragging butt about my own charitable planned gifts of appreciated stock (need to offset some Roth conversion transfers, stupidly made in the beginning of the year, thinking I could part with fewer shares at the end of the year, but alas...) and this was the kick in the butt/reality check I needed.

So I donated a few hundred shares yesterday to Schwab DAF, and a few more today. Being able to process all the grants I wanted to make all year and having that painful parting with my beloved shares behind me were both good things. So, if my owning up to my bad decisions triggered a reverse in the stock's karma and it's all up from here, your welcome. And if not, don't worry, I'll probably make the same mistake in 2023, lol.

Oh, bit of good news, found some ARKG I forgot I bought, so taking that cap loss so I can buy back a few of the TSLA I had to unload.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp, max pain is $124 for this week with all numbers of the wheel in play. But next week seems to have a bunch of calls at 200, and not much else happening. Could this be a sign that shorts are preparing to cut and run in the new year, or is it normal because the focus is all on this week or even this day? Anyone?

View attachment 889623

The fact that the stock has gone so long without any sort of relief rally means shorts/hedge fund would have to be insanely confident that Q4 P/D numbers are going to come in bad and cause further selling pressure. The odds are much more stacked for the Q4 P/D numbers to be the catalyst for a brief short term relief rally back up to 140-150 before shorts/hedge funds step back in a week or two before earnings to drive the stock back down to these levels with non-stop FUD about margins/net income collapsing on Q4 earnings.

At which point, the short to medium term direction of the stock will ultimately be decided by Tesla's earnings and guidance. Q4 earnings will decide whether this was the bottom or if there's further downside to come. I also think there's a fairly good chance that we see a refreshed "cheaper" Model 3 announced either on the P/D report or on Q4 earnings.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I suspect we're done with the drops, keeping it >. IMO, it's too close now to P&D while Q4 inventory bottoms out a bit early, and max volume today didn't break it.

(Full disclosure, I may have said this in the past, I just can't recall.)

Yep. Any year end tax strategy action will probably have happened by now as well. Tempted to jump in for a few now as opposed to weighting for that mid 70’s thing.

Really need a better crystal ball.

Hmmmm