Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

♪ The Heat is On: ♪

Mathias Føns on Twitter: "The Email that Elon sent to $TSLA employees yesterday: “Don’t be too bothered by stock market craziness. As we demonstrate continued excellent performance, the market will recognize that. Long-term, I believe very much that Tesla will become the most valuable company on Earth!” https://t.co/FsFDRnUvCe" / Twitter

 

[TrendTrader007]

for 2023:
what happens if:
there is no recession or just a mild recession. i personally see no signs of a recession in my part of America. everybody is going out and buying like there is no tomorrow. everybody has jobs. in fact, it is hard to find good employees or even bad employees. nobody is talking about not buying a car because times are tough.
i know for sure, nobody with an IQ over 30 wants to buy an ICE over an EV
goodluck buying anything close to a tesla. i see more and more teslas everyday.
nobody ever stopped going to Whole Foods because they did not like CEO or stopped shopping at Amazon because they did not like CEO or stopped using google or stopped eating at chipotle or stopped going to disney parks or stopped getting starbuck due to management. American really do not care, if they love the product, they buy it
lack of demand for Tesla is a fiction created by those who do not want Tesla to succeed
Ramp up of Texas and Berlin plus EV incentives kick in next week
CT comes and is a super hit
as far as i am concerned, i am throwing TA out the window
for me, Tesla fundamentals are so strong that stock could very, very easily go up 10X to 20X by 2025 from right here like within 3 years
TSLA has been sold off mercilessly, relentlessly for 14 straight months to tune of over -72%
why? because they are the single most profitable and strongest company in the whole freaking world?
this is so stupid
looks like everything that could go wrong has already gone wrong with TSLA the stock while everything that could go right has gone right for TESLA, the actual company
2022 is not 2008 but why is everyone acting like 2008
i will not be timing it except for times when i know for sure that it makes sense, and that too very short term and reverse course if i am wrong
single best trade could turn out to be: do nothing and hold for 2 to 3 years and maybe sell when Elon sells in 2024 or 2025 and buy it back after it is done going down
all this is a working fluid hypothesis and not written in stone
i change my mind very fast
however, when everyone is super pesimistic, that is the time to think what could go right
and with TESLA, a lot could go right
Count me as super bullish
and super long

 

[Max Plaid]

Troy estimates over ~25.5k customers purchased FSD Q3 2022, and ~24.7k people bought EAP.

FSD take rate dropped from 8.1% of global sales to 7.4%, most likely due to a higher mix of cars in Asia/EU. However it does not seem the introduction of EAP has affected FSD take rate as 14% of US buyers continue to buy FSD which is flat QOQ! So this is essentially a free revenue stream that did not cannibalize FSD take rate!

This does not include subscription or people who bought FSD after purchase. These numbers are pretty significant to Tesla's bottom line. If all revenue is recognized, this is over half a billion dollars in FSD+EAP sales with Q4 being over 700M if percentage stays constant.

My speculation is a good portion of EAP buyers will eventually convert to FSD since it's just a few thousand away as they see real progress from V11 and beyond.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/73933007

Single data point, I purchased EAP on my new MX Plaid, don't see the point in forking-out for FSD when it's not even allowed in the EU, never mind usable. The moment it's available to be used I will add it...

I expect there are many others in the same position and quite some upgrades will get bought

 

[joh01652]

Tesla Model Y overtakes VW Golf to become Europe’s best-selling car

Tesla sold 19,144 Model Y in Europe in November 2022, representing a gain of more than 260% year-over-year.

www.teslarati.com

From the article: "Tesla Model Y quietly took the crown of Europe’s best-selling vehicle in November, electric or otherwise. Tesla sold 19,144 Model Y in Europe in November, representing a gain of more than 260% year-over-year."

 

[NicoV]

Single data point, I purchase EAP on my new MX Plaid, don't see the point in forking-out for FSD when it's not even allowed in the EU, never mind usable. The moment it's available to be used I will add it...

I expect there are many others in the same position and quite some upgrades will get bought

Yes, At the moment you pay 4K euro more for FSD compared to EAP, and you only get traffic light and stop sign recognition extra. You could buy the FSD upgrade to protect against future price increases, but then again, that 4K buys you 40 TSLA shares, and these most likely appreciate faster than the FSD cost increases.

 

[Paracelsus]

 

[bkp_duke]

Someone knows something . . . and is gobbling up shares pre-market.

Makes me want to deploy some dry powder.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

View attachment 889957

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I seriously feel like having a future-seeing Almanac. The fundamentals of this company are insane.

Super efficient factories
Super popular cars that make the competition look like dated jokes
Incredible margins
Leading sales in many countries
energy business scaling up
two new factories in the ramp up
more factories to be announced
About to enter the pickup market with a huuuuge backlog
semi production aka. the never-happening impossible thing, is ramping up!
4680 ramp
developement of future, even more profitable products
fsd beta progress and soon v11 wide release
robotaxi coming in the next few years

my god this will be one hell of a bloodbath.

short burn of the century.

or as elon would say it:
burnt hair - the essence of repugnant desire - coming Q1 2023

 

[elasalle]

Someone knows something . . . and is gobbling up shares pre-market.

Makes me want to deploy some dry powder.

Confession- got 100 shares at $109 from a rest stop on way home yesterday

I didn’t travel in Tesla but did see so many superchargers along the way… bucees, doubletree hotel etc,
Also saw one charge point with 2 stalls that was funded by North Carolina govt , but was empty

 

[Singuy]

Someone knows something . . . and is gobbling up shares pre-market.

Makes me want to deploy some dry powder.

Yes, someone knows that all the retail bulls from the pandemic hysteria has been burned, now it's time to burn all the retail bears. When the stock is option heavy, we get these massive bear bull cycles where hedge funds wage wars as retail investors being collateral damage.

Retail investors are the best to emotional manipulate because they are poor lotto ticket buyers from the ghetto gas station. They can't afford to lose their money so panic hits them real fast as bulls or bears. And just like these real lotto buyers, they will all lose their money guaranteed.

 

[Unpilot]

We are so beat down that if we get back to the chicken price of 140....well we will celebrate!?

I want to say wake me at 200.....which is a 50% beat down from ATH.

Wow, is all I can say....even the cat is quite these days.


Edit to say any spelling errors are the phone's spell check fault.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Confession- got 100 shares at $109 from a rest stop on way home yesterday

I didn’t travel in Tesla but did see so many superchargers along the way…

I wish I had the cash/cajones to do that. Respect.

 

[larmor]

Someone knows something . . . and is gobbling up shares pre-market.

Makes me want to deploy some dry powder.

It is all ready known that Tesla sells cars with a fairly high margin for the auto industry. Just a few headlines and some ignorance creates a buying opportunity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow, is all I can say....even the cat is quite these days dazed.

FTFY.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[JRP3]

We are so beat down that if we get back to the chicken price of 140....well we will celebrate!?

Never thought I'd be excited to see $120 but here we are. Crack the champagne!

 

[EVforLiPo]

Yesterday premarket low at $106 was officially the bottom. Look at that buying pre market and the shirt covering that’s coming. God this rally will be savage

I really hope so but everyone should do their own DD. The bottom, short term bottom, no one knows.

Now if we do start an uptrend we will most likely see a lot of resistance.

 

[EVWatcher]

Confession: sold some at 113 Monday. Bought some - less obviously - at 119 with the above proceeds this morning in premarket. First time I’ve sold any tesla since the covid crash.

Hoping that was the real bottom.

Edit: lol at the drop at market open. Timing the market is for fools

 

[MP3Mike]

This does not include subscription or people who bought FSD after purchase. These numbers are pretty significant to Tesla's bottom line. If all revenue is recognized, this is over half a billion dollars in FSD+EAP sales with Q4 being over 700M if percentage stays constant.

They can't recognize all of it for recent deliveries, not even for EAP. As EAP is currently missing 3 of the 5 features listed. (Because Tesla hasn't replaced the functionality of the USS they removed. No summon, smart summon, or auto park.) Same would apply for FSD, features are missing, so more revenue has to be held to cover them.

 

[chrsk]

Confession- got 100 shares at $109 from a rest stop on way home yesterday

I didn’t travel in Tesla but did see so many superchargers along the way…

Got 30 shares and one 160 call Jan25 myself. Could not resist the temptation

 

[UncaNed]

OK, so maybe capitulation happened...

But what about those pesky Macros? ...the 2023 recession likelyhood... and TSLA's penchant for dropping after a very positive earnings report... ?

Edit/disclaimer-
I know a guy who overlooked all that and bought a few thousand shares and almost 300 January 2025, $200 strike LEAPS over the last couple days.

We'll see what happens. Too bad I'm not motivated enough to set up a vote-on-it thingy here... Something like, "Did this guy I know just drink too much of the TMC cheerleader's Cool Aid, or what?".