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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Holy crap. Looking at my early 2021 Model Y outside it just lost $7,000 - $10,000 in value.

Imagine you own a used Car lot and you have 20 Model Ys in stock. Boom…. $150,000 - 200,000 loss overnight.

I rated this post with "😍" because this will dramatically lower the cost of entry of ditching your gas car for a quality used Tesla and make all those dealerships with Tesla sitting on their lots pay for it. And there are a lot of dealerships right now with a good number of used Tesla on their lots.

The hollow argument that batteries/EV's cost too much for mass EV adoption is falling as fast as most of us knew it would. And the credit all goes to the leadership exhibited by Mary. She is such a forward-thinking person to make all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place like this. She's amazing! /s
 
I rated this post with "😍" because this will dramatically lower the cost of entry of ditching your gas car for a quality used Tesla and make all those dealerships with Tesla sitting on their lots pay for it. And there are a lot of dealerships right now with a good number of used Tesla on their lots.

The hollow argument that batteries/EV's cost too much for mass EV adoption is falling as fast as most of us knew it would. And the credit all goes to the leadership exhibited by Mary. She is such a forward-thinking person to make all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place like this. She's amazing! /s
LOL

I don’t have a ton of sympathy for any car dealerships myself. I just thought it was an interesting angle on it.
 
Gotta love Elon’s cajones. The man never hesitates to go all in.

And from his perspective, FSD is a fait accompli, so the margins are going to be in the software and services.

The master plan could not be simpler: massive growth of production, priced to sell.

I don’t know what happens to the stock price tomorrow, or in the future. But I’m super confident that the transition to EVs is going to accelerate rapidly from here.
 
Tesla just dragged every competitor deeper through JPR007's Valley of Death. A shockwave through the entire carmarket.

This is so exciting! How the roles have been reversed! Untill 2021, the media headlines were always about how Tesla was going bankrupt!

And now, we have a cash-loaded Tesla producing state-of-the-art, profitable EV's on every continent at very high volume, selling them at an unbeatable price!

Watch 2023/24 for the first casualties. Not only legacy car-oems, but also related industries (suppliers ICE parts, 2nd hand car market, car financing business, oil-business, ...)
"One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned: Elon Musk" - Jack R.

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Another way to look at this move is to look back at what Intel did to AMD in the 2000s. They undercut AMD, made illegal back end deals to prevent OEMs from buying AMD, granted Tesla is not doing the illegal p[arts, but essentially they are going to prevent sales for competitors. This move by Intel killed AMD for a decade and a half, spurring govt intervention via ant-trust.

Tesla's move to compress margins in order to saturate the market will give competitors no ability to make a profit so they cannot compete with Tesla. No profits means no R&D, no scaling, just dire straits.

I need to highlight the relative positions of AMD vs Intel back then. AMD was winning with their x64 chips, just smashing Intel. So Intel did what they did. However in our case Tesla is a juggernaut with the best tech, and they are laying down the hammer so the situation is a bit different this time.

I don't think this comparison works because chips can be made in essentially unlimited numbers much more easily than cars. Legacy auto's saving grace is that Tesla cannot ramp production simply by flipping a switch. The auto market is a big place so this will take some time to exert maximum pressure but I'm liking the direction this is headed.

But, you are right, the writing is on the wall. Which way the stock goes tomorrow is anyone's guess and I'm glad I don't have to guess. If I had to, I would say it's going to close in the green if macros cooperate, maybe sharply in the green. If TSLA goes down tomorrow due to this news I will lose the remaining shards of respect I had.
 
Holy crap. Looking at my early 2021 Model Y outside it just lost $7,000 - $10,000 in value.

Imagine you own a used Car lot and you have 20 Model Ys in stock. Boom…. $150,000 - 200,000 loss overnight.
Even in beginning of Jan heard from friend in dealership that used Teslas were piling up after the price cuts
Some folks trying to flip teslas must be hurt bad

Happy I got good price for my M3 when I traded for MX ;)
 
I don't think this comparison works because chips can be made in essentially unlimited numbers much more easily than cars. Legacy auto's saving grace is that Tesla cannot ramp production simply by flipping a switch. The auto market is a big place so this will take some time to exert maximum pressure but I'm liking the direction this is headed.

But, you are right, the writing is on the wall. Which way the stock goes tomorrow is anyone's guess and I'm glad I don't have to guess. If I had to, I would say it's going to close in the green if macros cooperate, maybe sharply in the green. If TSLA goes down tomorrow due to this news I will lose the remaining shards of respect I had.
I wasn't imply a chip ramp by Intel would be the death knell of AMD. Intel didn't beat AMD with their chips but as I wrote they undercut AMD on price, FUD, and back end deals with OEMs to buy Intel at reduced pricing with illegal kick backs. AMD suffered dearly by this, wiped out profits left little for R&D, talent fled like the plague, etc etc.

Tesla is going to achieve the same effect with their price cuts, making it really a bad financial equation to buy anything but a Tesla. That was my point. And then like AMD, the legacies will suffer.
 
Those prices are crazy, that’s a proper cat amongst the pigeons move that, Ford and GM will be bricking it lol, unfortunately here in Oz we weren’t lucky enough to get price drops like that, ours was just a lousy 3%, its still expensive here, if I could get a MYP for similar US prices I’d slap an order down tomorrow, after our discount a MYP is $97,000 AUD ($67k US)..
 
Brakes are the same now on P vs AWD, they just pop some Red covers over the calipers now.

That's good to know. Do you know when the change happened? So the discs on a new Performance Model 3 will fit inside the 18"Aero wheels now (if one is so inclined)? They should have made the bigger discs optional from the beginning. That was one of Tesla's less than optimal decisions. The bigger discs are only needed for track style driving.

This is a considerable savings for Tesla now when they sell a Performance model.
 
I wasn't imply a chip ramp by Intel would be the death knell of AMD. Intel didn't beat AMD with their chips but as I wrote they undercut AMD on price, FUD, and back end deals with OEMs to buy Intel at reduced pricing with illegal kick backs. AMD suffered dearly by this, wiped out profits left little for R&D, talent fled like the plague, etc etc.

Tesla is going to achieve the same effect with their price cuts, making it really a bad financial equation to buy anything but a Tesla. That was my point. And then like AMD, the legacies will suffer.
Maybe the better comparison is TSMC vs everyone over the last decade.

TSMC planned and executed relentless capacity expansion with industry leading technology crushing essentially everybody on both pricing, capacity and quality.

(TSMC today is worth $450B vs Intel $125B. Almost every other chipmaker uses TSMC to actually manufacture their chips)
 
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That's good to know. Do you know when the change happened? So the discs on a new Performance Model 3 will fit inside the 18"Aero wheels now (if one is so inclined)? They should have made the bigger discs optional from the beginning. That was one of Tesla's less than optimal decisions. The bigger discs are only needed for track style driving.

This is a considerable savings for Tesla now when they sell a Performance model.
Just the rear brakes.


 
Look at Rob's spreadsheet. Compare the prices to the start of 2021 prices and do the math.
Price cuts are huge compared to yesterday, but relative or non-existent compared to 2021.

Exactly this.

As I read on Twitter (sorry I cannot remember the source). Tesla raised the prices substantially when there were 9 month waiting lists. That was around 12 months ago. Since then they have burnt through the backlog, and the backlog would have been bought at the previous 2021 cheaper prices anyway.

There could not have been many cars delivered in 2022 that were actually bought on 2022 prices! At most, there might be a one-off boost to margin in Q4 2022 financials as that is when most cars ordered in 2022 would have been delivered (and we are yet to see what those margins look like).

So we still should be expecting c.$50,000 ASP and $10,000 margin, especially if commodity prices have gone back to normal as Elon has suggested